What You MUST KNOW About St. George Real Estate in 2019! (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing email@example.com.
Jeremy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Hey man, talk about shaking off the Christmas, what is it, Craig? I do not know. It is the Christmas cobwebs. How does that sound?
Craig: I can hardly talk this morning.
Jeremy: Well, listen. I am glad you are awake. I am glad you are here. Tell you what. The studio is largely empty, but guess what? We are here. We are here. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, live at the Cherry Creek Radio Studios. And the cool part is Jesse and I are wearing similar, similar outfits this morning.
Jesse: We did not plan that.
Jeremy: Listen, this is a new Christmas sweater I have got on. And you know what? Here is the deal. I can go here. I can go hoodie. Do you want to go hoodie?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: I can do the whole show like this. For all of our Facebook live folks, you can see me.
Jesse: Santa brought all my grandkids pajamas with hoodies.
Jesse: They were pretty cool.
Jeremy: One piece? Like a one-piece pajama?
Jeremy: Nice. Man. Santa, let me tell you about that guy. He knows exactly what kids needs. He knows exactly what grandkids need and granddads and everything else. I like it. You had a good Christmas, didn’t you?
Jesse: Oh yeah. All the kids were here. And the grandkids. It was first –
Jeremy: Beautiful, man.
Jesse: — time I think ever that we have had all the grandkids in one place for more than a couple of hours.
Jeremy: Really? Really? All of them? As in all of them?
Jesse: All four. Yep.
Jeremy: All of them.
Jesse: It was awesome. Last night, the house was just tore up.
Jeremy: Just gone.
Jesse: I got in trouble because I was just sitting there relaxing.
Jeremy: Like what do you want me to do, honey? I am just trying to –
Jesse: Can you not see all these toys laying around?
Jeremy: I am just trying to enjoy myself here.
Jesse: No, not really. Are there toys there?
Jeremy: Well, you know what, let me tell you something. My kitchen was, the house was a disaster. Santa came through. He must have been there at 1am, and then things were fine. I cleaned up, and then the kids decided to do what kids do, and then it was a mess, and then I cleaned it up yet again. Cooked a big breakfast. Do you know what hootenannies are, Jesse? Have you ever heard of them? Do you know what a hootenanny is?
Jeremy: Hootenanny is a German pancake. There you go. So a lot of people know what a German pancake is. Have you had German pancakes?
Jesse: I have heard of German pancakes, but I have called them German pancakes.
Jeremy: It is incredible.
Jesse: Or is that crepes?
Jeremy: Nope. Cup of flour, cup of milk, six eggs, salt, you melt a stick of butter in the pan. You mix that all together in the blender. You throw it in there. You cook it for 25 minutes.
Jesse: Did I say it right?
Jeremy: Yeah, I am not sure where that, I would love to know from my mother where on earth hootenanny came from. But we had German pancakes. It is a tradition. Always do it. And guess what? Today is December 27th. The question of the morning: Is it going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, guys? Do we think it is going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, Jesse? Yay or nay?
Jesse: I doubt it. I doubt it.
Jeremy: They are saying maybe. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, chime in. Comment. Tell us what you think. Craig, what do you think? Look, you are the traffic guy. You are the weather guy.
Craig: If you head north probably. I am not sure. It was flurries this morning just barely, but –
Jeremy: Yeah. Maybe. Where do you live at?
Jeremy: Yeah, so you were getting snow then.
Jeremy: How much snow was down on the ground?
Jesse: Yeah, definitely.
Craig: Not much. Maybe an inch or two.
Jeremy: I knew you lived north, but I did not you were Parowan.
Jesse: That is a dedicated radio dude.
Craig: It was (indiscernible)
Jesse: You are driving what? 65 miles?
Craig: Yeah, about. It is an hour.
Jeremy: Oh, I love Parowan.
Craig: Yeah, I do, too.
Jeremy: There is a building I want to purchase in Parowan downtown.
Jesse: We were just talking about that.
Jeremy: Yeah. I was up there last week, skied, came down, ate at Calavario’s. I love that place.
Craig: Oh yes. I do, too.
Jeremy: It is such a fun little family restaurant. The vibe is amazing.
Jeremy: Great people. Well, we have got Craig Bennett, sticking his neck in here for Mike McGarry. Mike, as they say, his days are numbered, but not that kind of numbered.
Jeremy: This guy, we have got an upcoming change of careers, as in he is going to go to the career that we all want.
Jeremy: The retirement career. So we are going to talk to him. We are going to have a fun show with Mike this next month and talk about his history in radio and career. When I was quite young, Mike was calling a lot of the sports here in St. George.
Craig: Yeah, 41 years.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is a long time. It a long time.
Jesse: That is a long career on the air.
Jeremy: It is going to be a very interesting time as Mike transitions out and we have a new co-host here in the studios. So it is December 27th, 2018, and we had some fun this last week. I thought this would, before we transition, I thought this would, last week, we talked about five things you absolutely have to know about the real estate market, specifically the St. George real estate market –
Jeremy: — as we move into 2019, and this would be anyone who is thinking of buying or selling, and let me tell you who else that would cover because there is really two groups of people. There are people who are thinking of buying and selling, and then there is, might I say there are three. There is a second group that would buy and sell under the right conditions.
Jesse: Right. If I could do this, I would do that.
Jeremy: Yeah, if I could get blank, I would do blank. And then there is another group that it has not necessarily crossed their mind. And this is often, for instance, we have talked about out-of-state homeowners or landlords who go, wait a minute. You mean to tell me that the market is probably at 10-year peak? Well, I do. I do mean to tell you that very intentionally.
Jeremy: We are most certainly at very close, if not at the peak, for this cycle. This might be someone who decides well I could buy an investment property? Well, absolutely you could buy an investment property. You have no idea. There are a lot of things you could do that you are not aware that you could do. These are regular business owners. People who could come in and purchase an investment property, Jesse, and have a stranger pay the mortgage every month plus some profit for the next 10 to 20, 30 years, and you would have quite a little nest egg. So there are three groups. I want to buy or sell. I would buy or sell under the right conditions. I have not really even thought about it, but now that you are suggesting it to me.
Jesse: Yeah, that creates a whole other show right there about (indiscernible)
Jesse: Really taking the time to do your homework there.
Jeremy: Exactly. That is exactly right.
Jesse: Because that is a long-term haul if you are buying right now.
Jeremy: Well, it is, but it is always a long-term. It is always long-term. So real estate investment is always long term. Buying and flipping homes is something people love to talk about. That is not a play that 97.93% of the people, you know what, no. That is not a play that 99% of the population is ever going to make in their whole entire lifetime. So legitimately, 1% of your real estate investors out there are going to be in the flipping game. And then there is a list of reasons. And that is also a separate show. But we are going to recap those five points, but I wanted to share something kind of fun. This last week, we put a post on our Larkin Group Facebook page, and we are going to give you one shot, one last shot, Jesse. These folks at winning the gift basket.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: We said Christmas Eve, but there was a kind of a fun little energy to these comments, so we have a post that says Merry Christmas from the Larkin Group. Would you like a little Christmas boost from the Larkin Group? And if you want to know where this is at, folks, Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and you can comment, and you may win the gift basket. Share something on your Christmas list in the comments below, and we will choose one lucky winner from all of our commenters. Right? Commentors. So I thought it would be interesting, because we are in the Christmas season to share what people talked about. You ready?
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Do you want to know what they said?
Jesse: I am ready.
Jeremy: Colby wanted a backyard firepit area. Yes or no? We are going to go through each one, and then you tell me yes or no whether you want it. How about that?
Jesse: I have one.
Jesse: It is just a makeshift right now because it is in the process, but we just had a fire the other night.
Jeremy: And it was nice.
Jesse: It was nice.
Jeremy: A phone call from our missionary from the Abbotts. Well, yeah everybody, these kids that go on all these LDS missions, they only talk to their parents on Mother’s Day and Christmas.
Jeremy: So it is four calls in two years. That is how that works. That is a long time. Right? So the Graphs, or excuse me, the Abbotts, a call from the missionary. Lynda Wallenfels. She is my good friend. She wanted someone to paint her house. Yeah, I would take that.
Jesse: That I would do because I am right in the process of getting ready to do that.
Jeremy: I love this. Jenae, listen, I hope you are listening Jenae Bang, who is a long-time friend of ours. To sell our house. I responded, yeah, we know how to do that. Andrew Young, who creates our Facebook graphics, all he wanted was an Amazon gift card. That is very simple.
Jesse: I would take that.
Jeremy: You would take it? Okay. How about the Esplins, since I bought all my own gifts, I am excited to open my Instapot.
Jeremy: I like that.
Jesse: I should just go buy one of those because everybody is talking about them.
Jeremy: Yeah, you need one.
Jesse: I do bone broth every two weeks.
Jeremy: You need one. You need one.
Jesse: In my 20-year old pressure cooker.
Jeremy: You do, man. I will rapid fire these out. Somebody wants new dishes, a sound system for their family room. Steve wants a new, hey a new shave, a nice Christmas shave. A safe trip across the country when we move back to St. George. Welcome back, Quinton and Maury Jensen on the way back. Robert, good morning, my friend, a new backyard landscape. That is cool. We can do that for you.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: St. George Day Spa. Michelle wanted, not Michelle on our team, another Michelle, a full day at the spa. That is all. Jamie Mecham, a Chicago Bears sweater or t-shirt. Somebody wanted our troops to return safe and to be able to speak to their families at Christmas. I think that is fine. Jesse Poll here, you wanted a fancy drone. Did it happen?
Jesse: Not yet. That is a ways out.
Jeremy: Keep the intention out.
Jesse: I do not just want to go buy a cheap one. I want to really plan for this.
Jeremy: I love this. Probably my favorite one, and there is a picture of a tiny, adorable baby with two Christmas stockings that are bigger than the baby –
Jesse: That we already have.
Jeremy: Some money to finish our adoption next month, Tim shared.
Jesse: That is a cool one.
Jeremy: That is very cool.
Jesse: That was very cool one.
Jeremy: So I think it is fun to see what people are talking about. It is Christmas time. These are the things that folks are thinking about, and these are some good answers, some really great answers. If you want to comment this morning, we will draw at noon today. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and that post is pinned to the top of the page. You will see the Merry Christmas and go from there. I better plug this laptop in. It says it is going low.
Jesse: Imagine that.
Jeremy: What do you think? Talk to me about an article that we shared yesterday. Well, we shared it with our team yesterday.
Jesse: Right. Well, this –
Jeremy: The market is shifting.
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: We have sellers wondering why their homes are not selling. Give us some feedback.
Jesse: We are still in a really strong market even though all over town people are talking about a shifting market. There is still less than four months of inventory on the market. So that is still considered a really strong market.
Jesse: But there is about 30% or 40% of homes that still fail to sell for whatever reason. They go on the market and they come off unsold. Now there are things that you can do about that. So there are five most common reasons where a home, why a home will not sell in the strongest market.
Jeremy: Let’s hit them fast. I want to hit these because, and then we are going to wrap up the show with a recap of the five things you have to know.
Jeremy: So what are the five reasons? Because, Jesse, the reason we are talking about this specifically is it is December 27th. On January 1st, which is next Tuesday, there will be a record for the year, number of what we call expired listings. And for our listeners out there, an expired listing is a home listing, the home was on the market for typically six months. Sometimes less. Sometimes more. But typically six months, and it did not sell. And remember that these sellers, these homeowners when they put their homes on the market six months ago, the last thing, they would have had a dialogue that looked like this and tell me if I am close.
Jeremy: Jesse, how long is your listing term?
Jesse: Six months.
Jeremy: Great, great. Okay. It is June, so that would be the end of December. Well, gosh, there is no way we would not have our home sold by Christmas, right?
Jesse: Oh sure. Yeah.
Jesse: Probably sixty days we will have it sold.
Jeremy: Yeah, okay. That was six months ago.
Jeremy: And now these listings are going to expire. So there are a large number of the home-selling population who are saying what the heck happened? And the market shifted a little bit. What are the five things, five reasons a home does not sell? And we cannot drill the details, but what are they? And then we are going to share this to our Facebook page this morning as well. Go for it.
Jesse: So number one is price.
Jeremy: Number one is price.
Jesse: Number two is the condition of the house.
Jeremy: Bingo. Okay. Keep going.
Jesse: Three is the seller’s motivation.
Jesse: Four is the marketing plan, and number five is lack of communication with your agent.
Jeremy: Okay, let me ask you a couple of things here. What do we have, of those five, read those back to us again.
Jesse: The condition of the home, the seller’s motivation, marketing plan, and the communication or lack of communication with the agent.
Jeremy: So how many of those do we have? Which of those items do we really have control over?
Jesse: We have control over the price, the condition, and the marketing plan, and well, the communication.
Jeremy: I guess we could communicate.
Jesse: So the only thing we cannot control, and I would even say the seller cannot control, is their own motivation. They are going to have, it is going to be what it is unless they have a change in circumstance or a change in perception.
Jeremy: What do we mean by motivation though?
Jesse: Well, I really have to move. I have a new job in 60 days. I have to move versus well, I would sell it if I could get the right price.
Jeremy: If I could get the right price.
Jesse: If it could really be the perfect condition, I would sell. So that is what we mean by motivation.
Jeremy: Right. I think this is really interesting. So four of those five factors, that is what is kind of interesting about this situation is you actually have control over 80% —
Jeremy: — of the issues.
Jeremy: Here is what we do not have control over, which are not even listed. Exceptionally cold weather, a massive snowstorm, a government shutdown, 2013.
Jeremy: We had both of those in 2013, and they hurt the, location unless you have a mobile, you cannot even move a mobile home. Right?
Jeremy: You cannot control location. You cannot control economic conditions.
Jeremy: We cannot control public perception –
Jeremy: — of the market.
Jesse: You have to meet that right where it is at.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is just reality. So we actually have control over 80% of these factors. We can control the price we are asking. We can control, you as a seller with a good agent, as professional real estate marketers, we can absolutely control the marketing that we are doing for a home.
Jeremy: Okay? We have full power over how much we communicate with the seller, and most importantly, what we communicate with the client.
Jeremy: By the way, us talking to you everyday does not change anything. Us communicating what matters will change something.
Jeremy: So when we talk about these kinds of things, look folks, there are a large number of homes that just are not selling, and we are moving into 2019, and the market has been hot, and there is a perception that well, maybe the market is not good anymore. Right? Maybe the market is not good anymore. The market is great. Jesse, of all of those issues that you just listed, what is the overarching, number one, primary issue that is almost always the issue?
Jeremy: Yeah, it is price.
Jesse: It is typically always price.
Jeremy: It is. It is. Right? Because there is a market, it is interesting. We have talked about this for a while on the show that Red Bull is one of our sponsors. I had to wink at Craig there. If you consider that I pay for their product and they put it in here. I have cut back on my Red Bull consumption greatly. I have got tangerine this morning. Now Craig, you realize this is 100% pure Florida orange juice in this can. Okay. Maybe it is not. It is interesting though. If I go to, I went to the Sinclair here on Bluff Street this morning. I had myself a really good breakfast, but I needed a drink. It is two for five bucks, this product right now. Do you know what the price is on this product at Maverick?
Jesse: I have no idea.
Jeremy: Do you want to guess?
Jesse: Four bucks.
Jeremy: Well, it is two for five bucks at that store. What do you, now I have given you a hint.
Jesse: Actually three-fifty-nine.
Jeremy: Okay. What do you think the price might be, Craig? If it is two for five at this Sinclair, what do you think it is at the Maverick, their competitor?
Jesse: Oh, at the, oh okay.
Jeremy: It is also two for five bucks. Guess what it is at Chevron? It is two for five bucks. Should I keep going? That is the market for these Red Bull cans.
Jesse: See, I was busy messing with my, my headphones keeping coming off, so I did not hear you correctly.
Jeremy: But it is a great question because it catches you off guard. That is why I ask it. There is a market for a product, and the reason I, it is just so funny this morning, I was thinking about it. I thought it is two for five everywhere. Or whatever, five-twenty-five. I do not know what it is. It is around there. Everywhere they are selling this at that rate. Under what circumstances would you pay two for six if you knew you could always get them two for five? Well, I do not know. If I were in a desperate situation and it was a long drive. Is it a long drive to any gas station? Craig has got three or four great ones in Parowan. There are two I love.
Jeremy: I love the Maverick, and I love the new whatever you call it out by the freeway. What do you call it?
Craig: Oh yeah, it is KB.
Jeremy: KB. Those are both great.
Jesse: What is interesting though is people will drive clear across town for the best gas price.
Jeremy: They will. They will. They will kill themselves.
Jesse: They will do the same thing for a home.
Jeremy: Yeah, so, so –
Jesse: Get the best value.
Jeremy: Isn’t that amazing? So I understand that your home is special, and I say that with a wink and a nod, because we all think our home is special. And I understand you have the best children. I do not know. Some of the listeners are like no, no, no. We just did Christmas. I assure you I do not have the best children. No, my kids are great. They are happy. They are healthy. They loved Christmas.
Jesse: And they are fighting just like everybody else’s.
Jeremy: Yeah, they were. They were. But the point is that there is a market. Price will always be the number one, overarching factor that is affecting your home’s, Jesse, what factor does this price solve for a home seller? Name some things that price solves.
Jesse: Well, it will solve, if you are at the right price, you will actually get showings.
Jeremy: But what will it solve? What are the problems it solves? What if my home is by a busy road?
Jesse: Then there is no other way to go but to price it correctly.
Jeremy: Oh okay.
Jesse: Because a buyer is going to look at that –
Jeremy: What if I have a crappy view?
Jesse: Well, that is definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I have no backyard?
Jesse: Definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I need to renovate my house or replace my carpets?
Jesse: Then it is price.
Jeremy: What if the buyers are not real excited about buying homes right now?
Jesse: Then it is going to be price.
Jeremy: What if interest rates are rising?
Jesse: It would be price.
Jeremy: This is a fun conversation, isn’t it? Is there any issue that price does not solve? Any issue? Is there any single issue? Let’s pretend the government shut down today, and you could only buy a home with cash. What factor would solve the issue for any seller?
Jesse: Probably price.
Jeremy: Price. But Jeremy, everyone is going to stop buying homes. Everyone will not. Everyone will not stop buying homes. That has never happened ever in the history of housing. It has never happened.
Jeremy: Price solves every issue. Why homes do not sell in a strong market, let’s give you things you need to know before they move into 2019. Right? We still have a strong market. Jesse, you know these from last week. Let me review them and you ping in here. Number one, interest are or are not rising? They have been.
Jesse: They have been. They have been going up and down, but they are probably going to continue to go up.
Jeremy: They are going to continue to go up.
Jesse: They say they are, but they are just not sure how fast they will let them go up.
Jeremy: So this is number one. Interest rates have risen. They are rising, and you cannot, we talked about putting the pedal to the metal on your car and just drive it at full speed indefinitely. Number one, you will run into something. But number two, it will run out of fuel. The housing market has been on crazy, crazy, crazy pace for a long time. Number two, we are not in a housing what?
Jeremy: Yeah, we are not in a bubble. This is not a bubble. And what is it that Chantry Abbott always shares with us, Guild Mortgage when he comes in here, about qualifications for loans now?
Jesse: They are actually a lot better than they were in 2005, 6, and 7. They are still pretty strict.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually –
Jesse: You still have to qualify.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually qualifying for homes.
Jesse: And they still check your qualifications.
Jeremy: They do.
Jesse: Pretty harshly. I just went through a refinance.
Jeremy: Yeah, they did. They are like you had a receipt for gas from 1998. Is that in the wallet? Did you keep track of that?
Jeremy: It is a file.
Jesse: Where did this money go out of your checking account? Where did it come from?
Jeremy: Exactly. And so I am a little out of order. Number one, interest rates are rising. Number two, we are not in a housing bubble. We are not going to have a bubble burst. Number three, which is connected to number one, which is why I say I am a little out of order. I have some scribbled notes from last week. Rates are rising for a very good reason, which is what?
Jesse: Well, they have been holding them artificially down, and we either let them go back to natural or we are going to cause more of a problem.
Jeremy: Because the market is healthy –
Jeremy: — we can do that.
Jesse: Right. They have been holding them down to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: So if you have got a teenager and did you notice that if they follow the rules and they earn trust, and they do what mom and dad ask that between 12 and 14 and 16 and 18 that suddenly some of the boundaries are lifted, and a little more freedom is given —
Jesse: Interesting to note.
Jeremy: — to that child. Right? The same thing happened with the economy. The government comes in here and puts, originally they put a tourniquet on because literally we were bleeding out.
Jeremy: Okay? Then we did surgery.
Jeremy: Then we stitched it up. Then we had a cast and a sling. We are getting back to health in the economy, so the government says all right, we do not have to suppress interest rates artificially anymore.
Jeremy: Interest rates are going up, and they are going up because the economy is actually doing great. One of the massive misconceptions that happens when a market starts to shift a little bit, as we wrap up today, is it slows down a little bit and people go oh, the market crashed. The market has not crashed. It is doing fantastic. Okay? Two minutes. Perfect. Okay. I love this. I love this. Number four, renting, excuse me, buying is again, and has always been, a more profitable for the average human being, American citizen than owning. The average net worth of a homeowner at age 65 is $300,000 versus the average net worth of a non-homeowner or a renter at age 65 was, do you remember the number?
Jesse: I think 30, 30, I cannot remember.
Jesse: Oh, 5,000.
Jeremy: There is no net worth.
Jesse: That is ridiculous. That is unbelievable.
Jeremy: Essentially, unless they have a really good retirement. But this is an average, right? We are talking about people who have nothing versus people who have a lot and average it. Average net worth of a homeowner is $300,000, okay?
Jeremy: So remember that. Last point, home values in St. George are not only not falling, they are at about a ten-year peak, ten-year peak. This will be a time that people will look back and say I wish I would have sold my home, especially people who are non-occupants. Landlords or second homeowners will wish they had done it. Okay? And they are not only not falling, there is the potential with a lot of the forecasts, 94% of the economists interviewed last week in our report, said we think they will go up in 2019. I do not know that they will in St. George. Jesse and I have debated this. I do not know.
Jesse: Well, the market does not turn on a dime. So they might not, they are not going to be at this intense pace, but –
Jesse: — it is going to take a while for them to slow down and turn.
Jeremy: It is.
Jesse: So that is why I say I disagree.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: They will go up a little bit.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: Just from momentum.
Jeremy: I say they will not. You say they will. We will find out.
Jesse: So next year we are going to have this conversation again.
Jeremy: Folks, if you want to reach out to us, please call us at 275-1690 or visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. A lot of people have questions right now about the real estate market. Absolutely no obligation. Sold in St. George dot com or hop on Facebook and make a comment about the Christmas giveaway. I think somebody may win a basket today.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Jeremy Larkin, Jesse Poll thanking you, saying we know this town.
Jesse: Happy Holidays.