Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Andy: Good morning. 8:36 on News Radio 94.9 890 KDXU. It is Thursday and that means it is time for the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy, how are you, man?
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Everybody.
Jeremy: Every body.
Andy: You have piqued my interest, by the way. He gave me a little teaser before we went on the air here about the most expensive and least expensive homes in Washington County. And he would not tell me.
Jeremy: I know you asked, Andy asked well what is the most expensive home and what did I say?
Andy: You will find out.
Jeremy: You shall find out. Listen, we have talked about this. It is no different than your newscast. Hey tonight at ten, we are going to find out exactly, tonight at ten find out what is lurking in the shadows for your teens. And you are like what do I need to know about my teens, and then it will be at 10:27pm. 27 minutes into 30-minute newscast.
Andy: You have to sit through the whole thing. Are you going to make us wait 27 minutes?
Jeremy: Heavens no.
Andy: Okay, good.
Jeremy: I would not do that.
Jeremy: It is not who I am. Good morning, Joe. Joe is watching.
Andy: Hey, Joe.
Jeremy: Joe is in. We got some people. Guys out there. By the way, guys and gals, everybody as they say, make sure you comment and say good morning. Give us a thumbs up. Float a heart. That is one of the famous kinds of webinar things people do because we are in a business where we watch a lot of webinars. Hey, float some hearts over there. Any whose. Gang, Jeremy Larkin here. Host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. It is Thursday. I have got Jesse Poll here in the studio. Jesse decided to show up in a t-shirt and baseball cap. It is like he does not even care. Tell us about your t-shirt because it says red day. I think people are going to want to know.
Jesse: Well, it is, all over the country, Keller Williams offices will be shut down today and out doing a community project somewhere.
Jeremy: Theoretically shut down.
Jesse: Yes. We will still be doing business, but the office will be shut down. We will be out there cleaning the park on our phones doing transactions, but we will be serving the community.
Andy: You have got a red shirt on under your sweater. I am guessing it is the same one.
Jeremy: It is not the same one, but it is similar. It is similar. So this is, today is Red Day.
Jesse: Yeah, today is Red Day.
Jeremy: Which is Keller Williams’ Red Day. Keller Williams is, so you know, a lot of our listeners, most of our listeners know that we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, CEO of the Larkin Group. Jesse and I are with the Larkin Group. We are a home-selling team. So in the real estate world, we have to have our real estate license shingled. Right? Hung under a brokerage umbrella. We could have our own brokerage, and we just felt like it was not worth the hassle and the liability when we belong to the greatest company on the planet, which is Keller Williams Realty.
Jeremy: Red Day, there are two kind of elements here. Number one, Keller’s branding has always been red. But in addition to that, red stands for do you remember?
Jesse: Let’s see. Renew, energize, and donate.
Jeremy: Renew, energize, and donate. What does Red Day stand for? It stands for renew, energize, and donate. It is our annual day of service. Every second Thursday of May we celebrate Red Day as part of our legacy worth leaving, which is part of the core values of the company Keller Williams, and we believe that at Larkin Group. So today we will be at Little Valley —
Jesse: Little Valley.
Jeremy: — Park, I guess. Little Valley Park, ballfields and that kind of thing planting trees, and boy, is it strange. The weather?
Jeremy: This is, it does not feel like May. 61 right now, maybe something like that. It is really cool. It is supposed to be cool all day long. Seventies for the weekend. Hey, make sure you stay in touch here in the next five minutes for the 10-day forecast. Oh wait. See, at some point I think we are an Iron Man promoter, St. George Arts Festival promoter. What are we? Are we running a real estate program here? I think we are running a real estate program, and today we are going to talk about the most and least expensive homes. So if you see us, by the way, wrapping that up, out at Little Valley Park, all these people in red shirts. That is Keller Williams Realty out here doing our day of service. And it is our little, it is a fingernail portion of something. Right? Everybody needs to do our part. If we are not all doing something, it really does not happen. So there you go. You know what I love, Jesse?
Jesse: What is that?
Jeremy: It is how these companies love to say look at. We are doing Red Day. We are the greatest. We are, you really should know that there is no one better than us. Everybody. There are lots of people doing service today in St. George.
Jesse: There are a lot.
Jeremy: There are probably 50 service projects going on right now by massive organizations.
Jeremy: But we are doing our part. Right? So there you go. If you want to check it out and see what that is about, you can google Keller Williams’ Red Day or KW Red Day. So we are going to have some fun. People like to talk about the most and least expensive homes, and there has been some interesting news, and I do want to talk about this as we get the show going. If you do not want to watch us on Facebook Live, if you feel like you cannot swing over or stay on Facebook Live because you know what, maybe your boss will find out, you can make it seem really normal by just turning on the radio in the office. See, people forget, our Facebook listeners forget that we are a radio show. Good morning, Facebook viewers and listeners, YouTube viewers and listeners. Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Jeff. I have got double Jeffs. I have got Jeffs all over the place. This is crazy right now. But you can listen to 94.9 FM, 890 AM, which is, of course, originally where we stream from, broadcast from here at the Cherry Creek Studios. You can google 890 KDXU Livestream and you can pick it up there, and you can just stream it. I do not know. There are a lot of cool apps you can get on your phone. That kind of thing.
Andy: We have our own app, too.
Jeremy: Wait a minute. You do?
Jeremy: Wait a second.
Jeremy: I did not know that.
Andy: 890K. You did not know that?
Jeremy: I am out of it, man.
Jesse: I did not either.
Jesse: All those days that I was trying to stream it from my computer and –
Andy: Yeah, yeah, you could have had the app. The only problem with the app is that it is about 30 seconds behind live.
Jeremy: Ah, that is okay.
Andy: And so, when we do these contests, people call in and I have already given away the prize because they are listening to the app.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are like wait a minute.
Jeremy: Wait, they feel like they are getting gipped.
Jesse: So you can announce, if you are on the app, just call me 30 seconds before you need to.
Andy: Yeah, read my mind.
Jeremy: Yes, read his mind. So there is an article that came out this week. It said there is this Riverwalk, a brand-new Riverwalk project coming online down on Riverside Drive, St. George, talking about this new affordable housing, and you can only understand that any time anything goes on Facebook, mainly there is negativity.
Jeremy: Because Facebook has become, and social media, but mainly Facebook has become like this outlet for everyone to share all their anger and resentment with the planet. Right? Which is unfortunate.
Jesse: And each other.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is really frustrating.
Jesse: It is sad.
Jeremy: I hate it. So years ago, The Spectrum, The Spectrum newspaper had something called the Vent, and they got rid of it.
Andy: I remember that. Yeah.
Jeremy: Do you remember that?
Andy: It was vile.
Jeremy: It was vile. It was vile. It was like Facebook. So it was like, Andy, when you release an article on affordable housing, and everyone hops in and says can you believe the greed? Can you believe the greed of business owners who would want to like, I do not know, build a house and make a profit? Can you believe these guys? Jesse, can you believe these guys? This guy opens a pizza joint here in town, and guess what, he wanted to make money.
Jeremy: Can you believe the greed? Can you guys believe that Cherry Creek Studios here sells stuff, radio? Honestly, I am offended. Okay? I am working for, have a I made my point?
Andy: You have.
Jeremy: And this is the classic line we get. Affordable housing, LOL. It is always an LOL. LOL. Yeah, is it just greed or have values really gone up that much? Gang, let me see if I can give you an economics lesson that is going to last about 60 seconds. Here goes. Prices of everything on the planet are driven by you.
Jesse: It is true.
Andy: That was ten seconds.
Jeremy: Well, there is about 45 seconds left.
Andy: Oh, there is more. Okay.
Jeremy: That means you and me and the three of us in this studio and everyone listening to this show, we drive the economy. Greedy builders air quotes and greedy real estate agents and greedy homeowners do not drive the market. The market is driven by consumers –
Jesse: But wait a minute. Isn’t it also greed to try to keep them down?
Jeremy: Of course it is.
Jesse: By buyers.
Jeremy: Because, of course, this is –
Jesse: It is all about greed.
Jeremy: Hypocrisy of the whole entire idea.
Jesse: Or not. It is just about life.
Jeremy: We are really just dealing with an economy, and what is happening in the economy is people start to move here and then what happens is the builders go oh man, I was selling this home for 250, but now the cost of my lumber went up, and the cost of my concrete went up because it is getting busy. Oh, and the cost of my labor went up because I am having a hard time getting guys. So they raised their price a little bit. And then people say I think I will pay a little more. And the builder says well, cool, if they will pay a little more. Gosh, if I was getting 260, maybe I can get 265. But then the cost of their labor and the cost of their materials goes up. So we have this cycle that happens, and as long as, I guess if we just want to boycott development, then we can absolutely, so government by the way, Thomas Sowell, you know who I am talking about, this famous writer, he has been in the paper. He had a piece that was really phenomenal years ago about how government intervention in housing prices does nothing. It actually creates almost the reverse outcome. So folks, listeners, buyers, sellers, homeowners, future homeowners, landlords, renters, I have covered every person that listens to this show. You are responsible. Isn’t that just liberating to know that it was your fault, to know that it was your fault and my fault and Andy’s fault and Jesse’s faulty? It is everybody’s fault that houses are expensive here because we are part of an economy. Here is what is not happening, and I am going to answer the question for all the people that complain about these. I am going to answer the question. Is it just greed? Nope. Sorry. Builders do not find out that they can sell their home for 300 when they were selling it for 240 and raise it to 300. There has never been, that is not, it is just so incremental. What about in 2005 when I bought a house and like 6 months later it was fifty-grand more?
Jesse: That was still the economy.
Jeremy: Still the buyer’s fault. Come on. Right? Now that I have been on my soapbox –
Jesse: But wait a minute. Let’s stop there. Who in their right mind –
Jeremy: Oh should we be done?
Jesse: No. Wait.
Jeremy: Thank you. Okay.
Jesse: Who in their right mind if you were selling a home if it was actually worth 300 and you had for some reason got it wrong, who wouldn’t change that if they could?
Jeremy: Let’s flip it on its end. All the buyers that can afford homes, so by the way, what we have is we have, and there was some great commentary on this article about this riverfront project. There actually are one in like fifty comments is actually valuable. We have a wage problem. Right? We have a wage problem. And understand that wages, that is a whole, that is a whole entirely different can of worms. Right?
Jeremy: We have a wage problem. Remember, this is where all this crazy profit that people want to make in their business comes in. We have a wage problem because people want and need to make money. That is what business is about. Right? We do not live in a utopian society where we all get together tonight and like everybody down the street cooks a massive meal, and then we all eat from a bowl together. Right? We live in an economic, a democratic economic system, and what that means is people go out and they do what they want, and if they want to start a business like a lemonade stand, Andy, have you ever owned a business?
Jeremy: Yeah, what did you do?
Andy: Well, first of all, I had a vending business about 15-20 years ago. Vending machines and stuff like that. I have had an LLC for myself. I have been a freelancer for quite some time.
Andy: And that was a business as well.
Jeremy: So nobody stopped you from doing that. Right? That was part of being an American. You get to do that.
Andy: I loved it. Yeah.
Jeremy: So I can go get a business license in the City of St. George for pretty cheap and I could start washing windows. I could get licensed and bonded and I could be a window washer. And that is part of the beauty of this country. Now, we are going to get to the highest, most, we really are. I am making them wait.
Andy: You are teasing.
Jeremy: We are teasing. But I think this is so important, and I hope that our listeners are really taking this in. When you live in this kind of an economic free market system, hey, the good with the bad. The good is guess what, in the United States of America you are not held down like in some of these terrible Third World or Middle Eastern areas where the people are oppressed. They cannot own a business. They cannot do really what they want. The flip side of that is things get expensive, and right now housing is feeling pretty expensive in St. George compared to wages. We do our little part. I guarantee you we pay more in our office than the average employer in town. I know for a fact because every time I talk to employers, they are like you pay that much, yeah. But that is our part. We are one company. So Jesse, people are, the inquiring minds want to know. It is May ninth. What is the most expensive now that we have soapboxed that, and gang, seriously, I am happy to have a discussion with you. Contact us at sold in St. George dot com. Sold in St. George dot com or you could call us at 275-1690. We are happy to pick this discussion up. All right? So most expensive home sale this year?
Jesse: Home sale?
Jeremy: Does anyone have any idea? Could anyone, I do not know, maybe one of our Facebook viewers has an idea. I do not know. We would see a comment come over there if they had that.
Jesse: So the most expensive home sale –
Jeremy: Most expensive home sale recorded publicly.
Jesse: $4.5 million.
Jeremy: Whew. How did you get a mortgage on that, man? Did it require a down payment for you?
Andy: How many pools do you have, Jesse?
Jeremy: $4.5 million. Where was it at, man?
Jeremy: Say more than that. I know exactly where it was.
Jesse: 2860 South 20 East, Washington Townside.
Jeremy: Yeah, so people are like what is that?
Jesse: It is right downtown. Kind of.
Jeremy: Not really.
Jesse: No, no it is not.
Jeremy: I have got to correct you. I have got to correct you.
Jeremy: Clear out in the field. South by Adam Lane. This is this big Tuscan estate. Brent Minor sold it. Congra-freakin-lations, Brent. I know which property he is speaking of. I am not looking at it, but I am very familiar with it. Four-and-a-half, would you believe this? $4.5 million.
Jeremy: Now I am going to give people perspective today. So Jesse, that is the real number. Four-and-a-half million. Was it 4.5 is what it closed for?
Jesse: Yeah, 4.5.
Jeremy: Give us some more data. Like what? Was this like three-bedroom, two-bath, two-car garage with a quarter-acre lot?
Jesse: Thirteen thousand square feet, seven bedrooms, seven bathrooms, five-car garage on seven acres.
Jeremy: There you go. So what this place is –
Jesse: It is an estate.
Jeremy: It is a resort. It has got its own pond, lake whatever you want to call it out there. I have not seen jet skis on it. Maybe it is not that big.
Jesse: Okay, but now, let’s, obviously that is an outlier. Let’s talk about the next most expensive is $2.8 million off of Long Sky Drive in St. George. That is in the Ledges of St. George.
Jeremy: Yeah. $2.8 million. Here is what is about this. I spent some time on Coronado Island outside of San Diego a month ago. We went to a friend’s home and it was a two-story, 2400 square foot home. So 12 on the main and 12 up. Kind of that like wood paneling, almost like a horizontal wood paneling, really basic traditional home built in like the 1980s. Right? I looked at the Zillow Zestimate. We have been beaten up on the Zillow Zestimate, but when you are in that kind of place, all you can do is just kind of look at a trend in the area. $3.5 million. The home was average, guys.
Jeremy: It was not much.
Jeremy: Somebody said in this thread about this affordable housing. LOL, can you believe there is no affordable housing here. Somebody said why don’t you try living in Orange County? So we have to keep perspective.
Jesse: Right. Because even though our wages are low, they are not astronomically low compared to California.
Jesse: Compared to their real estate prices.
Jeremy: So Jesse, so that person at Coronado Island, they sell the house for $3.5 million and they move to St. George, Utah.
Jeremy: They are a $3 million purchaser here aren’t they?
Jesse: Possibly or they could pocket half of that and buy a really nice house for one-and-a-half.
Jeremy: And when they buy that home here, whoever finds out they buy it is convinced that the people are independently wealthy. Right?
Jeremy: But they may have not been independently wealthy. They simply did what?
Jesse: They bought right.
Jeremy: Bought right. They bought a house a long time ago in a place that went skyrocketed.
Jesse: They bought at the right time.
Jeremy: They might have had a regular job. Sold this home and just become absolutely really cash rich for a short period of time.
Jesse: My in-laws I think have that. They have lived in the same home for 25 years, I believe. I think they bought it for like 250.
Jesse: It will probably be over $1.3 million.
Jeremy: Imagine that.
Jeremy: And they will have paid their mortgage off.
Jesse: If and when they sell.
Jeremy: So, $4.5 million. All right. Most expensive home sale so far this year. $4.5 million. And when he says Washington Townsite, where it gets confusing is Washington Townsite is anywhere in Washington that does not have like a subdivision attached to it.
Jeremy: So it is clear out there in Washington Fields by what we call Adam Lane. Adam Lane is this one cul-de-sac of homes where everything is like 52,000 square feet on an acre. So that is a little overwhelming. What is the, give it to us, what is the least expensive home sale this year? And by the way, well, we can qualify it.
Jesse: This throws people because –
Jeremy: Twelve million, Joe. You were high. I would like to know where the twelve was. He guessed.
Jesse: This throws people because if you do not put in single-family home, you are getting trailers that you could buy for $10,000.
Jeremy: So is there something that sold for $17,000?
Jeremy: I see it. So that is not only an anomaly, we cannot look at it.
Jeremy: So what would be the most expensive condo, townhome, or single-family home? The least expensive that sold. And I can tell you right now what I have got.
Jesse: You have got it pulled up?
Jeremy: Yep, I absolutely do. So far this year, let me tell you, you can go out there and buy, yeah, you buy a Bryant Head condo. Right? You could go and buy a condo at Bryant Heat for $35,000 or $40,000. You could buy a fractional ownership. You could buy a mobile home on a rented lot, which is what Jesse is talking about.
Jesse: The least expensive property in the MLS was actually a fractional ownership in Las Palmas.
Jeremy: What was it?
Jesse: $20,000 for a condo.
Jeremy: So we cannot use it as an example. What does fractional ownership mean?
Jesse: That means that you just, you are probably a fifth or sixth owner. There are a team of owners, and you get it for what, one or two weeks a year, depending on how many owners. But the least expensive –
Jeremy: So we know, see how that throws Andy off?
Jesse: — single-family home –
Jeremy: If people go well, I saw something sold for $17,000. Well, really it did not.
Jesse: So the least expensive condo, let’s just talk about greater St. George.
Jeremy: I know exactly which one it is.
Jesse: Is $80,000.
Jeremy: I know exactly which one it was. Why do you think I know which one it is? Because we sold it.
Jesse: Because we sold it. That is right. We do not just deal in million-dollar properties, folks.
Jeremy: Thank you, Heidi Flannery. Amazing client out of Washington state. So $80,000, Spring Tree Gardens. One-bed, no bath, no kitchen, just kidding. I just want to see if people are paying attention. A hole in the wall from the demolition. It is a one-bedroom, one-bath, 588 square foot condo in a place called Spring Tree Gardens. $80,000.
Andy: 588 square feet.
Jeremy: That is it, man.
Jeremy: There is just, right. There is not much.
Jesse: Okay so –
Jeremy: So let’s talk about a single-family home. What do people want to know? What is the least expensive sale right now for a single-family home this year? Okay? This is going to be fun here for people to know about. True single-family home. Now what will happen is when you go into the Multiple Listing Service, it will like mislead you.
Jesse: So I am going to take out the 55+ communities. Okay?
Jeremy: Oh, that is okay. I already have the answer for you. Do you want me to give it to you?
Jesse: Yeah, give it to me.
Jeremy: All right. I was just going to see if he had it, if he was beating me to it.
Jesse: I had it.
Jeremy: 1114 North Jefferson Street. Okay. So 1114 North Jefferson Street. People are like what is that? It is a place called Painted Hills Estates. What is that? Well, it is kind of fun because at the end of the day there are like 500,000 subdivisions in St. George and nobody knows what they are. Okay? We have got two minutes. Fifteen hundred, this is really interesting. 1512 square feet for $155,000. Jesse, that is the cheapest sale that I showed anywhere in Washington County.
Jesse: Okay. So you are actually wrong.
Jeremy: Okay, what do you think is the cheapest one? Because when I pulled my search, that was the cheapest single-family –
Jeremy: — well, you know what?
Jesse: This is tricky because out in Hurricane you have got Quail Lake Estates, which is a single-family home.
Jeremy: No, cannot count it. Cannot count it.
Jesse: It is a single-family home.
Andy: Those are tiny. Those are tiny.
Jeremy: Still cannot count it. I still do not count it.
Jesse: But if you take out those –
Jeremy: Here is why. Here is why it is basically, there are a lot of trailers in there and a lot of modular homes.
Jesse: There is, but this one is a single-family home.
Jeremy: Okay. What was it?
Jesse: It was 770 square feet for $129,000.
Jeremy: Okay. There you go.
Jesse: It is a regular community.
Jeremy: Check this out. So there was a sale on 100 South that Baw Britridges, a good man over at Keller Williams, had that was $144,000 that I did not include. It was interesting because it was listed as commercial and residential, but it shows up in the residential search.
Jeremy: So, this was a single-family home that was 996 feet, a block from our office. When it says it needs a lot of TLC, let me see if I can describe this for you. It includes a bulldozer –
Jeremy: — running it over in the final minute. So right now, gang, let’s wrap this show up with this. Housing is feeling pretty expensive in Washington County based on what is available.
Jeremy: Based on, excuse me, based on income. $4.5 million was a highest sale. We had a single-family home arguably at $130, call it $150,00 for a true single-family in like downtown St. George or Hurricane.
Jeremy: $150,000 is as cheap as you are going to get if you are lucky, and it is going to need a whole bunch of work.
Jesse: You are going to have to be quick, too, because it is going to sell like that.
Jeremy: Greed is not driving our market. Okay? If it is, then it is because we are all greedy.
Jesse: It is pent-up demand. So let’s talk about that next week.
Jeremy: Well, that is exactly. Pent-up demand is driving our market. If you are thinking about buying a home, if you are thinking about selling a home, we want you to visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. Man, we could have fun with this discussion for hours.
Jesse: Next week.
Jeremy: Sold in St. George dot com. Oh, we are going to have some fun with it. We are going to find out when we talk about pent-up demand and what that means, like why people were kind of sitting around for five or six years not buying anything.
Jeremy: Over and out.
Andy: Thank you, Jeremy, Jesse. Time for news on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU.
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing email@example.com.
Andy: News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU. Good morning. It is time for the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jesse is along for the ride as well.
Jeremy: And the crowd goes wild. I do not know. I do not know if the crowd is going wild.
Jesse: I am a legend in my own mind.
Jeremy: I know you are. I know you are. You are a legend.
Jesse: I try to be. I try to be legendary.
Jeremy: It is what they say, Jesse. No publicity is bad publicity. Right? That all publicity can be I do not know what.
Andy: It does not matter what they are saying about you as long as they are talking about you.
Jesse: Tiger Woods was famous, and then he was even more famous. He became infamous.
Jeremy: And then he came back, and he did some pretty amazing things. So pretty cool. Yeah, really amazing things.
Jeremy: Fantastic. So Jeremy Larkin here. Host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got my good friend, business partner Jesse Poll. Am I hearing voices? Is it just me?
Andy: There are voices, but your microphone will be good. You’ll be good. And I can cut this part out.
Jeremy: It is not just me.
Jesse: I always hear voices. Welcome to my world.
Jeremy: Have you guys ever seen the Alfred Hitchcock movie Gaslight? Anybody know about it?
Jesse: I have heard about it, but I have not been able to sit through it.
Jeremy: So pretty interesting. Gaslight was done in 1944. This is like where you guys go we do not hear anything. You must be losing your mind. Gaslight was a 1944 Alfred Hitchcock black and white. Gaslighting is such a pop psychology relational term. Hey, do not gaslight me. Right? And in the movie, Ingrid Bergman, I am looking at the summary of this right now. (Indiscernible) Gaslight. So what happens is they are in this relationship and he wants to, years after her aunt was murdered in the home, a young woman moves back into the house with her new husband. However, he has a secret he will do anything to protect, even if it means driving her insane. And so what happens is he gets some cohorts to help him, and they start to do crazy things in the house like flicker the gas lamps, the gas lights. And she would say did you see that? And they would say –
Andy: Of course not.
Jeremy: We do not know what you are talking about. We do not know what you are talking about. And so the term gaslighting. And he kind of made her crazy, and then some guy comes in at the very end and I cannot remember who he was, but boy, Joseph Cotton, whatever his role was, but that was the actor, saved the day and helped her. But she thought she was losing her mind. And man, the sad reality is that we do that to each other actually as human beings. So we did not mean this to be a pop psychology, but we kind of make each other crazy. Right? I think we do.
Jesse: I am going to stay out of that because you know how deep I can go.
Jeremy: Oh my gosh. Listen to our loving relationships podcast Tuesdays at 7pm.
Jesse: There you go.
Jeremy: I do not know.
Jesse: Well, what is amazing about it how many times we do not realize we are even doing that —
Jeremy: Yeah, we are kind of making each other crazy.
Jesse: — to each other. Something.
Jeremy: So let me say this. You know what makes people crazy? Selling their home.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Selling their home.
Jesse: Really crazy.
Jeremy: Let me see if I can break this down for you really succinctly. Selling your home sucks. Andy, you know all about it, don’t you?
Andy: Yes, I do.
Jeremy: How many showings have you had?
Andy: Too many in two weeks. I think we have had 15 in two weeks.
Jeremy: 15 in two weeks. It is kind of like gaslighting. The market gaslights you because every single showing that comes through, Andy, what do you think automatically?
Andy: This is the one.
Jeremy: This is it. This has got to be it.
Andy: Finally, yeah.
Jeremy: And I felt really good about it. I was pulling in as they were pulling out, and the family seemed really excited and they had their kids there. Selling a home is absolutely maniacal, insanity-inducing crap. That is hard. Okay? But today we are going to talk about the good news of St. George Real Estate because there is so much good news. We have clients that are having such raging success right now.
Jeremy: This is still a great market. Okay. But today, we are going to talk about the good news of St. George Real Estate. We are talking about multiple offer situations, bidding wars, nine offers. We will get to that momentarily.
Jeremy: Nine right now on one of our listings.
Jesse: But wait, I thought you said the market was shifted.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is shifted, and yet, and yet it is still a great market. And I have also said it is still a great market and people are not paying attention.
Jesse: Well, what is good to point out here though, I think, is that even in a bad market, that scenario still plays out.
Jeremy: Oh, you bet.
Jesse: With a correctly marketed, correctly-priced strategy on a home sale, you can get multiple offers in the worst market ever and get the most money possible.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. Man, it is amazing. So we have got some ecstatic people. Just had a closing with something we will talk about that was so neat. However, first I want to just name and encourage everyone to get involved. Saturday is Iron Man St. George 70.3 and we had Colby Nielson in a few weeks ago from the volunteer. He is the volunteer director. Great man. Math teacher over at Pineview High. I had a meeting with him this week, and the meeting I had with him is always in his classroom at his desk while all of his students are just there having fun.
Jesse: That is an awesome –
Jeremy: It is kind of a funny thing. So they are just being busy, and he and I had a little meeting and we talked about it. So you will be able to see me by the way, I will be down, because everyone wants to see me.
Jesse: Of course.
Jeremy: You will be able to find me around transition 2, what we call T2, which is down at town square, which is where they come off of the bikes and go to the run, and I will be doing some of the volunteer direction there. If you have not volunteered, it is probably not too late. Go to Iron Man St. George dot com and click on the volunteer link. And when you hear this, especially, we have people watching live, but people who are listening to the radio, just go to Iron Man St. George dot com and go ahead and register. Now, let me point something out. We are doing something a little different today. Those who are listening on the radio live, that is great, but you are not listening to us live because for our Facebook and YouTube viewers, you are wondering, maybe on Thursday they will be wondering where we were. We are actually recording the show on Tuesday, okay, because we cannot be live in the studio Thursday morning. I will be out of town and I have got some Iron Man meetings. So if you are looking for the show, and I probably should have pointed that out in the first place, get on 94.9 FM, if you are probably listening to this point or if you want to listen on Thursday, 890 AM. So, Iron Man St. George. Go ahead and volunteer. There are needs. There are still needs. It takes a couple thousand people to pull it off. This thing is sold out. It is an epic event. They start at Sand Hollow Reservoir. They race and ride their bikes all the way through into St. George up through Snow Canyon. There is Jeff. Jeff, who has a ringer like that on their phone? Really?
Jeremy: Do you have that go off in church?
Jesse: He does not know how to change the ringer.
Jeremy: Now, if the cameras could pan right now, you will see a big red phone with a cord with a rotary dialer on it. Okay. Man, good grief. We have got Jeff Jenson, by the way, in the studio. He is in here just spectating. So I was there the first day that Michael Vice, he is an Austrian one, I was looking at some photos from 10 years ago, and it was me with my little tiny children, who are no longer little tiny children, sitting with him at the finish line in the little like VIP tent because I was doing volunteer direction and they let us in there right after he won. He is world famous. Olympic athlete, the whole bit. Gosh, come out and support it. Watch it. They race all the way up through Snow Canyon. They run all over downtown and over the red hill. It is a tough course. Tough, whoa, man. The wind can blow. The water is almost always cold. If the wind blows at the lake in the morning, you do not even want to think about it. Right? You are talking about white-capped waves. Forecasting 87 for a high Saturday. The last athletes will come off the course around 5pm. Iron Man St. George. It is a big deal. Bringing in a lot of money into this community. Jesse, should we talk about the good news of St. George Real Estate?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: So I am in a closing this morning with my new good friends, Johnny and Charlene Arrulian, and these are just great people. We actually sold their home three times.
Jeremy: It took us three times selling their home, and we are going to talk about what that means. Okay? Three times we sold their home. So there were 38 days on market by the time I had it sold three times. So 38 total days of this home being for sale. Now, every time we would put it under contract –
Jesse: The days stopped.
Jeremy: — the days stopped. So we did it like on day 3 originally, and the clock stopped. And then it fell out of contract, and it came back on the market, and the clock started again on day 4. And then it fell apart, and it came back on, and so, we had a contract at day 6, which was, we had a contract at day 3, a fall apart at day 6, another contract fall apart, and finally got that thing closed. So you go well, this is not really good news. Well, it actually is incredible news. These folks bought this home at a time where real estate values were lower and then values fell like crazy, and values went really high for a while, and then they came back around. And they were just doggone stinking happy, and it was such a cool story, and I love these stories. So after it fell out of contract the last time, we had three buyers trying to bid for each other on this home. And your buyers, if you are an agent out there, or a buyer, your story really can matter to the sellers. So this property was at Rio Virgin Estates. It is off of Riverside Drive, and I get this phone call from a lady up in Orem, Utah, and she said listen are you the listing agent for 2990 Riverside Drive. I said yeah. She proceeded to tell me that her father had built the home, and this was such a special place in their family. He has built a dozen of these units in this Rio Virgin Estates, and that all they wanted was to buy this house. They offered us full price. No strange contingencies. They purchased with cash. They did not ask for any repairs after they did a home inspection. They were perfectly, completely happy. Okay? We were running a cool little program at the time. We saved the Arrulians $1250 on their real estate fees. They were delighted about that. Came in this morning. First American Title. Sat down with Allison Schriber, who is just a tremendous lady, and we had such a fun time, and I want to tell you what they said. They were pleased and so excited. We are happy to get our money back, and I said, you guys, I just need you to know that you are model clients. And they said, really? We do not know about that. What is a model client? And I said, verbatim, you allowed us and trusted us to do our job. Period. End of story. Right?
Jeremy: Jesse, how typical is it because of the emotions that go into selling a home that our clients kind of struggle to let us just do our job?
Jesse: Oh, it is really typical.
Jeremy: It is tough for them. Isn’t it?
Jesse: Yeah, it can be. Especially when you are going through say something like Craig was talking about. He had had all these those showings and you are excited, upset, excited, so there are so many emotions and you can just get beside yourself.
Jeremy: Oh yeah.
Jesse: And look for every little thing that is wrong when it is not really wrong.
Jeremy: Yeah, and if your home is not selling and then you start to get into this mode of like well, maybe there is something that my agent is not doing. And by the way, maybe there is that something your agent isn’t doing. Okay? But we are going to talk about the converse of that. Right?
Jeremy: Which is there is something else that is going on in the market right now. Interest rates were higher about 6 months ago, and the Federal Reserve, bless their hearts, decided to come back and they said whoa, whoa, whoa, I think this is hurting the economy a little too much, so they dropped those rates back down.
Jeremy: We have got stuff. Let’s talk about what is happening right now. Okay? Let me tell you what we have under contract right now. These are sellers right now that have a contract on their property. 2200 square foot home in Hurricane. 100 East. Under contract. 2990 East Riverside Drive, the Arrulians, we closed today. Condo in Ivins, Mesa View Townhomes, under contract. How many acres at your Apple Valley home, Jesse?
Jesse: One acre.
Jeremy: Yeah, a cabin on one acre in Apple Valley under contract. Beautiful renovation. Our good friend, Craig Sorpel, took this, bought it, flipped it, renovated it. Little, a cottage, it is just a darling cottage. Main Street and Leeds.
Jesse: He did such a good job on that.
Jeremy: Yeah, under contract. Double-wide trailer home, Hillside Mobile Estates, which is in Washington City, under contract. 2774 Tobin Drive, 1500 feet in Bloomington Country Club. An old 78 property. Under contract. 252 North 100 East, a little single-family home, built in 1941, right, Jess?
Jeremy: 2800 feet, under contract. But we are not done. 100 North in Hurricane, single-family home, 1800 feet, under contract. How about, Jesse, tell us about, I can tell them, but you tell me, how about our good friends at 1300 North?
Jesse: 1300 North –
Jeremy: 828 West 1300 North.
Jesse: That is a cool property.
Jeremy: They ate a burger with us Friday night at our client event and gave me a testimonial. So what is the background on them?
Jesse: Well –
Jeremy: Not on the home so much as their story.
Jesse: Their story, they actually have five different rental properties here in St. George, and they just have always loved this one. The fact they are letting go of this one first is, I think they wanted to move into it for a minute.
Jeremy: Tell me this. But what is the background? They just did not show up to us and hire us. They have been on the market before.
Jesse: No, they were on the market before, but they, here is the background. So they were on the market at 349, I believe it was. And the home is just not, 1800 square feet and it had a carport. So, what we did is when they came off the market in six months, we said okay, let’s look at this. What can we do to really bring the value? So they enclosed the carport because it was a really heavy-duty carport. So we made it into a garage. Went and got that all fixed up. Then we actually still dropped the price because it was still too high. I think we had it under contract within 30 days, I believe.
Jeremy: We did. This is the Harrolds. It is interesting because what was happening is whatever was going on with the agent before us, they spent seven months, they told me, on the market with this agent. They said they had three or four showings max. Three or four showings max. Now, when we put this home on the market, how many showings did we have?
Jesse: I think I had seven in the first week.
Jeremy: Seven showings in the first week. I will bet you we had 25 total. I will bet you we had 25 showings.
Jesse: And that is a good thing to point out because we were talking about it every week. Okay, this is our activity. This is the feedback. What do we need to do? Because we did not get to the 60-day mark and have that be stale. So we actually did two price adjustments on that property to make sure that we would find the sweet spot before people were looking at us funny.
Jesse: Because they were already looking at us.
Jeremy: Correct. It is interesting because these guys come along and well, remember I said earlier that the Arrulians, they had allowed us to do our job. It is hard when you come in and you give the seller the news they do not want. Okay? Because they had it on the market for $349,900. And then we sold the home, and it is under contract somewhere in the 300s. Above $300,000. Well, it sounds like you gave it away. How would we know if we gave a home away? How would we know? There is an answer. I am going to see if I can, I am going to quiz you. How would you know if you gave a home away? What would we have out the front door the day we put it on the market?
Jesse: Oh, you’d have a line. Like literally.
Jeremy: We would literally have a waiting list.
Jesse: Kind of like –
Jeremy: (Indiscernible) at us, Jeff. Have you ever seen a line at any one of our listings?
Jesse: In 2011, in Las Vegas, they would put a home on the market and literally have a line clear down the block to see these properties.
Jeremy: Yeah, but I do not want to give my home away, people say. Right. So here is how we know if we gave the home away. We would have an unlimited pool of investors, buyers, humans, dogs, cats, you name it, lined up to buy the property. Now, we have an interesting property this week that we had nine offers on. Well, did you give it away? Well, we actually sold it for $10,000 over the asking price, which is kind of fun. -Ish. Kind of we are in that range. Right? So the Harrolds, what happened, Jesse, is they came in and they said we want to sell the property. But often what the seller says is I want to sell at this price. Do you determine price?
Jeremy: Do I determine price?
Jeremy: Does the seller determine price?
Jeremy: Who determines price?
Jesse: The market. The buyer.
Jesse: And then the seller gets to decide if they accept that or not.
Jeremy: So what happens is –
Jesse: And that is actually the conversation we had several times because it is hard when you are attached emotionally to a property and you think it has got to be worth this, and you are looking at all these other homes that selling. It is a hard conversation to go yes, but we are getting rejected, and what we are going to do is find the sweet spot, and then decide if we are going to sell it or not.
Jeremy: Yeah, because there is I want my property sold. What is your outcome you want? I want my property sold. So the Harrolds came in, and Jesse said we have got to do several things. We need to enclose the garage. We need to get the price where it needs to be. Jesse went up with hour videography team, shot a beautiful video up on the hillside. It is down here off of Red Hills Golf Course on the hill, on the mountain above, to give people perspective of what is going on there. We went in there, took the photo. We updated brand-new photography, brand-new videography. The primary photo across the front of it says priced to include a $12,000 buyer’s renovation credit at closing. How often do you see that on a listing? Not often. What was the $12,000 for? Ideally. Theoretically.
Jesse: So they could do either the roof or they could go in and update the kitchen or they can go in and update the bathrooms. Whatever they wanted to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and they listened. Okay. And they listened. But we are not done. Hey Jeremy, but it is only $250,000 homes that have contracts. Right? Wrong. How about the Welkers, my good friends here in town? Beautiful home in Morningside Estates, 3795 square foot home built in 1991. We put the home on the market at $438,581. Man, that price has a ring to it. $438,581. It took us 15 whole days. Guess what we put it under contract at? $438,581. $438,581. We held a neighborhood barbeque the first weekend it was on the market. Flyered the doors of 50 homes around the listing before we put it on the market to invite the neighbors out. Cooked hot dogs, chips, soda, water, whatever it was.
Jesse: Those have been a lot of fun.
Jeremy: Yeah, it was the weekend of the Master’s Golf Tournament. Done a lot of promotion and a lot of activity there, and they had that thing sold. How about the Retreat at Sand Hollow? This is a nightly weekly rental zone. $505,000 under contract. How about the Mulberry Estates? Jesse, you know that property very well. The Lidals.
Jesse: I do.
Jeremy: What is the asking price on that?
Jesse: It was 508.
Jesse: Yep. 508.
Jesse: 508 was the asking price, and they just bought that five months ago for a whopping 490. But what I did on that one was they actually bought the home and they thought they were going to stay there for a while, but he actually got a job offer, a dream job, to go back home where his family is. And we knew we really had to showcase that property to recoup as much money as possible for them.
Jeremy: We held the barbeque.
Jesse: We held the barbeque. Shot a lifestyle video.
Jeremy: Shot a lifestyle video.
Jesse: I did everything possible –
Jeremy: So cool.
Jesse: — to make sure that that home shined so much that it could not be ignored. I think I had it under contract within, well, I had an offer within 4 days. And then it took us a couple of days to go back and forth and negotiate it up.
Jeremy: Pretty amazing.
Jeremy: Pretty amazing.
Jesse: But there again, they allowed us to build a strategy and then they allowed us to do our job. So they were involved. We were a team on that property. She did so much work to get it ready, and they just allowed us to do our job.
Jeremy: They allowed us to do the job. Okay, but let me wrap this up with a couple more. Recent sales, now those are all homes we have under contract for people selling their home right now. Sky Ridge sold for 303,500. Olive Grove off of, that is Hurricane, Olive Grove off of Dixie Drive sold for 303. Legacy, the most expensive freaking home per square foot in the Legacy at Southgate sold for $382,000. Dixie Springs sold for 470. Desert Sands, Painted Desert off of River Road, 261. Coral Springs Condos that I sold for the Hammond family, 298. Jesse, how about your selling Empress Circle in Bloomington Hills for $13,000 over the asking price? Let’s talk about this little home. So we have a property today that we have nine offers on. And what is fascinating about Empress Circle that I just mentioned, Jesse encouraged these folks to get aggressive. And they listed the home for 394 and change, and they sold it for 408. And people, listeners out there, may think that there are no bidding wars at the higher price points. But there are. There are in fact bidding wars at the higher price points, and here is what it requires. It requires condition to be fantastic. It requires marketing to be spot on. It means we say the right things in the right places. Provide the correct photography and videography to the buyers where buyers and agents will find the property. Right?
Jesse: One thing that they also did is they redid the carpet. They did the paint. They did their part –
Jeremy: They nailed it.
Jesse: — of making that home the best value in that price point, which is why it drove the price up.
Jeremy: Yeah, to the point where people would fight for it. So we have got a little property over here in Cotton Acres, which is, I call it Red Cliffs. It is off of 2450 East. We listed the property at $249,900, and that was on Friday. By Saturday, we had two offers. Sunday, we had four offers, and by Monday afternoon, we had nine. Nine offers. Now when you get into a multiple-offers situation as a seller, you have several options. One is you could accept one of the deals if it is an awesome deal. The other is you could counteroffer to any and all of the buyers. The other is you could send out what we call a notice of multiple offers, a request for a highest and best offer, which is what we ultimately did. And we felt like to be fair to these buyers, we would send everyone out the notice and say give us your highest and best shot by tomorrow at five o’clock. Now, I think it would be fascinating for folks to know what I said when I sent that notice out.
Jesse: I think it would, and is it okay if we talk about the conversation that you and I had Friday as well?
Jeremy: It would be fantastic except we are going to run out of time.
Jesse: Okay. So I am going to shut up.
Jeremy: I love that. Yeah, I do love you. Honestly, you mean a lot to me. I think, do you like that? Let me say what I shared with these folks. Okay. This is the transparency that we do real estate at, and we had permission from the seller. Thank you so much for the offer. As you have likely heard, we have received nine. When it is the best deal on the market, we expect it. We worked with the folks, the Seamans, to make this the very best home. Absolutely fantastic home. Darling even for one of our listeners that is giving me a bad time today. This home has been part of two generations of the family and near and dear to their hearts. With so many offers on the table, they feel the only way to be fair is to ask for your highest and best. They have asked me to be clear that it is not their intention to drive up the price up. On the contrary, it is to determine who is committed to moving forward to purchase. Because if you have nine offers, Andy, you kind of wonder who is going to actually close. Right?
Jeremy: Because what if you get nine offers, and they are all a bunch of freaking charlatans?
Andy: Right. Right. Right. Right.
Jeremy: You wonder this. I said, all of that said, a few things you should know. Number one, this is a form email. All nine of you are receiving this. The agents that offered. Number two, they will not accept an offer subject to the sale of another home. That eliminated two of the offers, but that is up to them. Here is why. Two of the buyers wanted to write an offer subject to the sale of their home. What did I just give them the option to do? Find a different way.
Jesse: Well or take away the contingency.
Jeremy: Yeah, so instead of rejecting two of the seven right off the bat, I said they will not accept that. Number three, the roof is visibly tired. We are not sure whether it will pass an FHA or VA home inspection. Number four, in reference to number three, the home is being sold as is shy of a safety hazard that a home inspector may bring up. Offer accordingly. So what we did is we played transparently with these people. Guys, this is the great news of St. George real estate market. It is an incredible time to sell. Still and probably will be through all of 2019. It is actually an amazing time to buy. Prices are high, but interest rates are really, really low. It is cheaper than renting and renting is just escalating. It just continues to escalate. If you have questions about buying or selling, please reach out to us, of course. Your own real estate situation, at Sold in St. George, that is Sold in St. George dot com. And let’s go enjoy the Iron Man this weekend. Not running it. Just observing and serving those people. Thanks, Jesse, for your amazing comments.
Andy: St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Time now for news.
Colby Baggs Neilson ! is gracing us with his presence! Pre-recording tomorrow’s radio show since he cannot be here Ironman 2019 is almost upon us, if you want to blow your own mind having an incredible day, volunteer! http://m.ironman.com/triathlon/events/americas/ironman-70.3/st.-george/volunteer.aspx
Posted by Jeremy Larkin on Wednesday, March 27, 2019
In today’s episode of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, Jeremy Larkin and co-host Jesse Poll invite Matt Green, well-known Utah Real Estate Investor, Keller Williams Realty Franchise owner, and all around family man, to talk about a bill that’s ready to pass at the Utah Legislature, HB 121, and how it may improve the home buying and selling process in the Beehive state!
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Andy: News radio 94.9, 890, KDXU. It is time for the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy, how are you, man?
Jeremy: Good morning everybody. Jeremy Larkin here. How am I? I have never been better.
Andy: That is good.
Jeremy: I have maybe been better.
Andy: That is really good.
Jeremy: I have got somebody very special in the studio today. Besides you, Andy. You are special.
Andy: I am special.
Jeremy: You are special. And Jesse is lurking in the shadows today. Right? There he goes. There is his hand. There is his hand. So any of our folks that are watching this on the live feed this this way. Hey, and guys today, just so you know, we are not broadcasting Facebook Live. So if you are listening right now, always remember that this show is available on 94.9FM, 890AM or what I like to do is I just Google the phrase 890 KDXU Livestream. That is the easiest way to just stream it live if you do not want to listen on the radio. 890 KDXU Livestream. I have got, and we are going to talk about a little bit of real estate first, but I have got someone special here. I have got Colby Neilson here.
Colby: Hey, do your thing, man.
Jeremy: What is it like to be back in the studio?
Colby: That means that we got a race coming up. That is all it means to me.
Jeremy: That means we have a race coming up. We are going to be talking about said race. I want to talk about. There are a couple of things I want to talk about today, by the way. I want to talk about the volunteer element.
Jeremy: I want to talk about some history. I want to talk about the bid for the World Championship for 2021. Right?
Colby: All right.
Jeremy: Is that the year?
Jeremy: Is that the year? So, kind of fun. Gang, so let me run some real estate out of here though. And this will be fun because you can join in the conversation, man. I love it. So we have talked for some time about our instant offers program. I want to actually give some background as to why we are doing an instant offers program. So for all of our listeners out there, if you visit our website, which is Sold in St. George dot com, you will see something that says, and I will just pull it up, and I think it says get an instant offer. Jesse, does that sound right? Something like that?
Jeremy: Get an instant offer. Okay? Should I what my actual, my own website –
Colby: Yeah, check it out.
Jeremy: — says. Get instant offer. All right. Here is the background. So Zillow is the big national, and Andy, you know you have had your home on the market. You know what this is about right?
Jeremy: Zillow is, just so people understand, it is the most trafficked real estate website in the world.
Jeremy: An interesting side note is that Zillow is only in North America, excuse me, in the United States. So Zillow does not exist in Canada. I went to British Columbia a few years ago, and I was like oh, I wonder what houses are. There is no Zillow. So it is the largest, most heavily trafficked website in the world for real estate, but it is only in the United States. I realize we think that we are the world’s, like we are the biggest, best thing in the world. But there is a big world out there outside of the US. Canada is giant. China is giant. Europe is giant. Okay. So what has happened, guys, is Zillow and a company called Open Door, another company called IBuyer, all these companies are coming in and here is what they would like to do. Do you remember when there was a thing called travel agents?
Colby: Yes, yes I do.
Jeremy: And there still are. And what is funny is a couple years ago I booked a cruise with a travel agent and it cost me nothing over what I paid for a cruise, but the way that it is booked is they get their commissions built in by the company on the backend. It is little bit like selling a home.
Colby: Okay. Right.
Jeremy: My life was ten times easier. She figured all the dates out, all the scheduling out, ran it all for me, and I gave her a credit card and it was fantastic. But a little company called Expedia came along and Travelocity and they changed the whole process. The consumer wants to go online. Right? And so what these companies are doing is they want to eliminate people like me from the process. And to some level, there are some things you do not need me for. Right? Which would be similar to, at some point, they just go we are just going to go all online learning, Colby. Like you have been great. Appreciate you. Thank you for your service. Right?
Jeremy: But here is a Chuck-o-Rama gift card for you and your family, and it is all online now. And the students just want to get it 24/7, when they want to get it. Let me ask you a question because I have got him in the studio. He is not prepped for the conversation. Is there a difference, my friend, between the experience of a student, and there is online high school in Washington County.
Jeremy: What is the difference, toot your own horn for a second, between doing online high school and coming into Mr. Neilson’s classroom? Because there is a difference.
Colby: Well, there is a big difference. Number one, you are getting someone who is sitting with you, showing you how to do, well, I teach math. Showing you how to do just this certain math concept.
Colby: Okay. With you, speaking back and forth. It is not someone else’s tutorial video that you are trying to watch and figure out. You are getting maybe a handout, some extra practice, something that –
Colby: — something I can physically give you and watch you work on, and plus, in my class, we have a great time. There is some social interaction –
Jeremy: And by the way, this is huge.
Colby: — that you do not get otherwise.
Jeremy: How many students do you have total? Because you are a math teacher, so they are circulating all day.
Colby: 120, 130 kids.
Jeremy: How many do you know by name?
Colby: All of them.
Jeremy: Let’s just all just have what we call the power of the pause. He said all of them. Right? You know 120 kids by name. How many of us remember our high school teacher, right, middle school teacher? And everyone has a different one. Like some kids who are really drawn to you will not be drawn to, there are other kids that are not drawn to you. Right? They have their other favorite.
Colby: Oh yeah.
Jeremy: I know that is hard for you. I understand. But I know this guy. He is a good friend of mine and has been for decades, but that element. You know them by name. They like going in your class. They like you coming up to their desk and saying hey man, I see you are struggling. Why don’t you stay after school and let’s talk about this. You know their names. A lot of them you probably have like a pretty cool friendship with, like you know what they are doing in sports. Right?
Colby: Oh yeah.
Jeremy: You know what they are doing around the school. Hey, how is the family?
Colby: Well, I was going to say, not only do I know their name, but you learn more about them as the year progresses. Some of them are involved in extracurricular activities, so you see them. You go to the games. You see them. You try and build that rapport with them because they are doing these other things, and you want them to feel comfortable in your class so they will be more willing to accept your –
Jeremy: Let me ask you a question here. Andy, I know you are at least like, you are over 30.
Andy: Barely, barely.
Jeremy: Who is your favorite teacher? Who do you remember? Name a teacher.
Andy: Mr. Bickmore, Mr. Johns, Mrs. Robbins. I have a bunch of them.
Jeremy: Okay. Pause. How many years ago were you in school? Just give it up.
Andy: I graduated high school in 1984.
Jeremy: Okay. Think about this. Class of ’84. My sister Tiffany same age.
Andy: Great year.
Jeremy: Do you see this impact though? Instantly, he listed, he is like naming them off.
Andy: I could have listed ten more.
Jeremy: They impacted your life and here is the funny part. They are just regular people with families trying to figure it out. So let’s bring this back around, and I think you can kind of see where I am going. What is happening with these big, massive real estate engines, like Google is a search engine, so Zillow is an engine. They would like to eliminate the agent from the process. They would like to make it so automated that you go online. You say I want to see this house, and this is what they would ideally like. You show up, you plug a code into your phone, the door unlocks, you walk in, you tour it yourself, you leave. That is what they would like. That is great for them. The issue is the human element is completely removed from what is an insanely emotional process. Right? Trying to decide what your home is worth. Trying to digest the fact that it is worth less than you think it is because virtually every home is worth less than the seller wants it to be worth. Moving your family. Dealing with a death or divorce or a marriage or a new child. Upsizing. Downsizing. Which side of town should we live on? All sorts of contract issues. You sell your house and you think it is all done, and then the buyer, who you thought they were nice people, and I say that with a tone because they are probably nice people, but now they come back with a home inspection list, repair list that says hey Colby, I want you to fix 21 items. And you are like I thought they were good people. What? That is where you agent comes in and says, puts their hands on your shoulders. Let me give you a little massage. Just relax. Okay? They would like to remove the human element from the process because it makes them money. I am all about automation. We are continuing to automate our business in every way we can, but the reason we launched this instant offer program over at Sold in St. George dot com is because they are trying to buy homes now. They not only want to remove the real estate agent from the process, they also want to pull this one. Hey, Andy, do you want to sell your home? It is real easy. Just plug your address in and a few details about your home in this app and we will send you an offer. Well, if you guys would like to have to some fun, google Zillow Consumer Affairs. I saw 1100 reviews. Guess what the average review was from dealing with Zillow as a consumer? One star. One of five. You would have thought three, maybe four.
Andy: Yeah, that is what I would have said.
Jeremy: One star at the Consumer Affairs. This is for the official Consumer Affairs’ website.
Jeremy: Because you are dealing now with this national entity. You are not dealing with human beings. Right? This is like outsourcing all of your kids’ education to a website, and I think there is an element of helpfulness to that. Right?
Colby: Definitely. Yeah, it is helpful to have tutorial videos or whatever. But who do you really ask your questions to? And how quickly can you get your feedback?
Jeremy: Correct. Let me tell you one of the number one complaints I have had speaking to new real estate agents right now is currently in Washington County there is no live class for the real estate exam. It is all online now. I went to Stringham Real Estate School 15 years ago, and I took it all in a classroom, and man, I still remember B. King. That is who it was. B. Carmen. Her name changed. I remember her. She was awesome. And you learn very differently. Yeah, there is no feedback. There is no nothing. So here is what I just want to encourage our listeners to do and then we are going to talk about Ironman. Understand that there is a big massive shift afoot in the world, and when we get so disconnected that we think our best friends are on Facebook, I am going to soapbox for about 60 seconds. You think about how much you interact with people on Facebook versus the last time you called your close friend and said hey, how have you been? It is scary. It is really scary. And as we get disconnected, it will hurt the economy. It will hurt our businesses. It will hurt our kids. It will hurt our families. There is a level of connectivity. So the instant offer program, by the way, is we offer either maximum value or either maximum convenience. And maximum value is we put your home on the open market and we sell it at retail value. Maximum convenience is you have our investment group, who are local. Not Zillow. We walk over. I or Jesse or Jeff or someone comes to your home and we walk through it, and they make you an instant offer, which is definitely going to be below market value because we cannot make sense of buying and selling homes, talk about full disclosure. What am I going to buy your house for 100% of value and sell it for 10% more? 100% is the only possible.
Colby: Yeah, right.
Jeremy: There is no more than 100. Give 110%. There is only 100 available. Right? It is the famous John Wooden story. You talked about that. Where he pulled his team in it and he said guys, I know it looks like you are pretty tired and some of you were probably out with your girlfriends last night or maybe you had a few drinks, and you are thinking Coach, I do not have it all today. I will give 110% tomorrow, and he said there is only 100% ever available. So you cannot make it up tomorrow. Right? So what we are trying to do is keep a human being in the process. If you want to sell your home and you do not want to put it on the market, and you do not want to repair it and you do not want to stage it, and you do not want to show it, and you want to take an instant offer, we have got an investment group that will buy it from you. And it is not Zillow headquarters in Seattle. End of story. Fair enough?
Colby: Fair enough.
Jeremy: Keep teaching. How long are you going to teach for?
Colby: The rest of my life, Jeremy.
Jeremy: I know you are.
Colby: The rest of my life.
Jeremy: I know you are. We are twelve minutes into this. I have done my soapbox.
Colby: It may not always be in a classroom, but always teaching.
Jeremy: I love it, man. So we have Colby Neilson here. Goes by Bags for those of us who know him well. Good friend of mine. You have now been, you have been involved with Ironman, what was the first year you raced Ironman?
Colby: Did I do my race in Arizona in 2005?
Jeremy: It would have been something like that.
Colby: It was right around 2005.
Jeremy: Yeah, down at Tempe. I saw that venue when I was there last week, two weeks ago.
Colby: Or 2008. 2005 or 2008.
Andy: That is a big gap, Bags.
Colby: I did not prep on that information.
Jeremy: No he did not. So he and his brother-in-law –
Colby: It was right about then.
Jeremy: Yeah, and a lot of you guys know Jeff Gardner. Jeff is no longer involved, but he was really involved in Ironman for a while. So these guys used to race Ironman. See, I was, we cycled together, but I never had the courage to actually go do the Ironman race. I do not know. What am I going to say about it?
Colby: You were always invited.
Jeremy: I know I was. Colby has been involved, he was a participant and then you took over as the director of all the volunteer director for Ironman St. George. What, 2010, right?
Colby: When it started. Yeah.
Jeremy: I saw that banner last night with Michael Vice of Austria on it. That first year. Remember when he won that first year?
Jeremy: That was pretty cool. So tell us about what it means to be the volunteer director. Because we know that he is teaching kids math at Pineview High, but his side job.
Colby: Yeah, so it is busy. What I really have is a good group of captains that are all each over a different area of the event. Right?
Colby: So you have registration. You have packet stuffing. You have aid stations. You have everything out at the lake and wet suits and gear bags and bikes. There are all kinds of areas that need someone to be in charge.
Jeremy: Think of what is involved. How many athletes will come this year to race? 2000?
Colby: 2000 at the start line. Yeah.
Jeremy: 2000. I love that at the start line. Oh, we do not know what happens thereafter. If you think about the Ironman event, and so a lot of people out there listening do not know a lot about it. As a matter of fact, they not only do not know a lot about it. It just seems like a burden because it shuts down traffic for day. Do you remember, man, if we had Kevin Lewis here, he would give us the numbers. $9-10 million or something like that being brought in off the race to the community?
Colby: Yeah, and you are talking not just that week. People, since that initial year –
Jeremy: Nine years ago.
Colby: — it just generates more and more interest. Right? So now people that have come here and raced are now returning and training and visiting and touring and whatever else they do when they come and visit.
Jeremy: Yeah. This is how we feed our kids.
Colby: They will come work out. They will practice on the course. They will come race and they will come back.
Jeremy: I see them as early as, probably earlier, but typically by February the first reasonable weekend you see Ironman athletes here doing training weekends.
Colby: Oh yeah.
Jeremy: Right. Getting familiar with the course. So it drives, so a lot of people do not know what it is. You are talking about let’s say $8-10 million coming in off this event. Off the event. Annually, they are putting tons of revenue into our economy. The event, of course, let’s walk these people through what they are doing. They are at Sand Hollow Reservoir. They are going to swim 1.2 miles. Right?
Jeremy: They are going to get out of that water. We are going to help them strip their wetsuit, one of our 40, 50 volunteers there because it is hard to get your wetsuit off when your hands do not, no longer work because you have been swimming for 1.2 miles and it is cold water. They are going to hop onto their bike damp, and they are going to race, ride how long?
Colby: 56 miles.
Jeremy: 56 miles. Which is from Sand Hollow to where?
Colby: Sand Hollow, it is going to go up and over the Red Hill, out towards Ivins, back up through Snow Canyon, which is –
Jeremy: Up Snow Canyon.
Colby: Up Snow Canyon, right.
Jeremy: Up Snow Canyon. It is a treacherous climb.
Colby: And then once you get to the top, you just coast it on it. All the way back into town.
Jeremy: Yep. And so, cool. So they have already swam 1.2 miles, and they have ridden their bikes 56 miles, and then they are going to run a half marathon.
Colby: Marathon. Right.
Colby: Up the Red Hill and back.
Jeremy: So think about the number of volunteers for all of our listeners out there. It requires so many people to make that happen.
Jeremy: And to pull it off. And the competitors I have heard regularly saying we think St. George has the best volunteer community ever. Like we have never seen an event come off so clean.
Colby: Oh hands down. You have to realize there are a lot of events that Ironman owns or puts on around the country, and I have a traveled to a few others and worked as a crew guy, and I see what goes on. I see volunteers. I see the work that that certain particular town puts into their efforts, and I look back at what we have, and I am like we have people that really understand what it means to go help out and go bring this thing hear and make it something special.
Jeremy: And it is super community-based. And I will point something out.
Colby: It is not like that in other places.
Jeremy: It not like that in other places.
Colby: No, it is not.
Jeremy: That people that realize this, this is part of, man, it is my show. I can say what I want. Part of the benefit of a really, quite honestly like a pretty religious-type community is you have a lot of service going on. And it does not mean that religious people serve, are better than non-religious people.
Jeremy: What happens is a lot of these kids are raised doing service. They do not even want to do it. Remember you are a teenager. You are like I have got to go rake leaves for the neighbor? But in this kind of community in Utah and in St. George, what has happened is quite a few thousands and thousands of the residents were raised, against their will at first initially, to serve. Right? And so it has created this mindset that what we do is we go and we serve. It is really normal. Check this out. By the way, do people want to know where these guys go? How about they race in Boulder, CO, China, Calgary, Alberta, Ireland, France. I am just highlighting. Santa Cruz, CA, Imperial Beach, CA, India, Sweden, Coeur d’Alene, ID, and where is the national championship?
Colby: For a (indiscernible)
Colby: I think this year it is in France.
Jeremy: It is the World Championship. World Championship.
Colby: World Championship. Yeah.
Jeremy: So the World Championship. Right? Then you have the World Championship, but the North American Pro Championship is St. George.
Colby: Exactly. Yeah.
Jeremy: So the reason I point this out is to impress upon people like Ironman is everywhere. They pick the most beautiful locations on the planet and they are having their North American Pro Championship here.
Jeremy: So, let’s talk about volunteers and then let’s briefly touch on trying to be in the World Championship. But we need volunteers.
Colby: Oh yeah, we need many. We need about a couple thousand to make it work like it should.
Colby: With enough people so that it is not overly burdening others. Right?
Colby: But right now, we are at about 350 that have signed up.
Jeremy: Yep, and we need way more.
Colby: And we are a month away.
Jeremy: And we are a month away. So guys, the race is May 4th, and you can volunteer anywhere from the lake, which you are going to be out there bright and early, like 4 or 5 in the morning early. The race is going to be over over, like the last competitor is coming over the line at what time of day? Downtown.
Colby: Downtown. It will be done by 5.
Jeremy: Okay. I was going to say 4 or 5. So I want to tell people where they can volunteer, and I just want to make my own personal plug because I have been that involved. Visit Ironman St George dot com, Ironman St. George dot com. Is it Ironman St. George dot com?
Jeremy: Yeah, it is. It is just going to send you over to their page. But you will see a link to volunteer. Go in. Pick any freaking thing that sounds fun to you.
Colby: Yeah, just scroll down and look through it.
Jeremy: Yeah, scroll down. Hey you want to be involved in athlete drug testing? Maybe you want to be involved in athlete registration? How about this? Athlete registration happens on Thursday, Wednesday, Thursday. You get to hang out at Town Square in beautiful weather and meet people from all over the world.
Jeremy: It is pretty fun. Right?
Jeremy: I am going to make my plug. I was involved in 2010. I was involved in the first five years, and then I kind of went MIA. And I am back this year.
Colby: He is back.
Jeremy: As I was one of volunteer captains. Guess who is back? I am just going to tell you something. If you have got to the St. George Marathon finish line that is the feeling. You go to the St. George Marathon finish line and you start crying. You are like I do not even know these people and I am crying right now. And then you want to race. It is that kind of electricity at the event. And to volunteer, it is just such a blast. Yeah, you get a free t-shirt, but you feel like, you do not feel like, you are part of something that day. And the athletes, the thing that is cool. The average Ironman competitor is they are wealthy. They talk about the demographics. These people, they are doing well for themselves, right, all over the planet financially, and they come here, and they are very, very appreciative. The athletes are high-fiving. They are thanking you. Right?
Jeremy: It is kind of an incredible experience.
Colby: It is an incredible experience. A lot of these athletes, you do not know if this is their first time for this type of major endurance event or their fifth time.
Colby: But either way, it is a goal. It is a dream of theirs, and we as volunteers, we are helping this dream become a reality. Right?
Colby: We are encouraging them. We are offering our services if you are at an aid station or if you are helping them with their bike or whatever, you are a part of this dream of theirs.
Jeremy: Of this, I love this, and you have always said this, man. This is like your great case. Right? The sales pitch to volunteer. And by the way, the benefit of volunteering is you get the incredible prize of feeling really happy. Right? Which is better than any fee. But you do not realize that every athlete that comes to town, they have a story.
Colby: And like American Idol –
Jeremy: This is Jim Smith from Travers City, Michigan, but there is a story.
Jeremy: Every one of them. They do not have to have this crazy life story that they came out of a fire and raced Ironman. They all have a story.
Colby: They all have some pathway that got them here.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is a dream, and a lot of people are just two minutes, perfect, hoping to finish the race. Right? Most of the competitors are not competing. They are finishing. They are completing. I talk about competing versus completing. 2021, this week at Town Square, we had the little pep rally. St. George is bidding. We call it bidding to become the World Championship host in 2021.
Colby: Right. So it is coming back to the North American continent that year, so we are going to try, we did our best. There was a lot of excitement and a lot of fun downtown, just trying to sway them, let them know hey, we have the people that is going to make this work. Which we do.
Jeremy: We do.
Colby: So whether we get it or whether we do not, either way, we have got the folks that make this happen.
Jeremy: Yeah, we have a volunteer community. We have a service community. Guys, please.
Colby: You just need to go sign up and get started.
Jeremy: Visit Ironman St. George dot com or if for whatever reason, if you are just cruising along, just google Ironman St. George.
Colby: Hey, if you have got a group, that is even better because we have, Ironman donations that you can apply for. If you have questions, my email is right there when you go to sign up to volunteer.
Jeremy: So you are saying a service group, like scout troop, a Boy Scout, a Girl Scout troop –
Colby: Yeah, a church group, community groups –
Jeremy: — a church organizations.
Colby: — clubs.
Jeremy: They actually get financial support, right?
Colby: They can, yeah.
Jeremy: They can. So guys, Ironman St. George. Colby Neilson, volunteer director, always love having you, man.
Colby: Always a pleasure.
Jeremy: Visit and sign up to volunteer today. Sign up your office. Sign up your family. Sign up your parish, your ward, whatever you do. Get a group and come on out. May 4th. It is going to be fun. All right. Over and out. Thank you.
Andy: All right. News radio 94.4, 890 KDXU. This has been the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, Jeremy Larkin, Bags Neilson here, and Jesse behind the scenes.
Mike: KDXU News time. It is 8:35. It is a Thursday. Good morning and welcome. It is also time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. We welcome in the voice of St. George Real Estate. Here is Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Thank you, Mike. And Robert is offended that you did not say voices.
Mike: The voices of St. George Real Estate –
Jeremy: Thank you.
Robert: I am not at all.
Mike: How about if I say Robert and Jeremy. Now Jeremy is mad.
Jeremy: Robert J. DeBry. I mean MacFarlane.
Robert: Robert J. DeBry and Associates.
Jeremy: I had the resume and I thought it said Robert J. DeBry, and I am like he is interviewing for a real estate position?
Robert: Because I am Robert J.
Jeremy: But then I looked again, and it was just Robert J. MacFarlane.
Robert: Just. Not bad though.
Jeremy: I will take it. Very good morning. Here is a fun trivia for you this morning because it is a beautiful January day in St. George, Utah. I was driving my child over to la escuela, as they say in Latino America. You guys understand, right? This school. Robert, I think you understood.
Robert: Oh, okay. Got it. That was a tough one for me.
Jeremy: I want to make sure. We are going to do a little Spanish course today. So I am headed over to Tonaquint Intermediate School and we pass Southgate Golf Course. I said, Matt, look at the golf course. And it was covered in frost.
Jeremy: It looked like snow.
Robert: Frosty white.
Jeremy: Yeah, it looked like snow. He said man, that is the whitest I have ever seen it besides when it snowed. And I helped him understand. Gang, if you are not a golfer, do you realize, so do you know what the rule is with the frost in the morning?
Robert: I do not.
Jeremy: So they will not, Southgate Golf Club, by the way, is owned by the City of St. George. Golf Club, golf course. I think club is a little liberal. They will not let players out until the frost is off. And really the frost only has to be off on the first hole because once it is off on the first hole they send them out, and then of course, the sun is going to hit everywhere else. But that is the deal. So this morning, the second that sun hits that fairway or that first hole and green, then they will send people out.
Jeremy: You did not know that?
Robert: I did not know that. I am not quite as much of a golfer as I probably should be.
Jeremy: Should be. I have news for everybody. You do not need to be a golfer to be in real estate. People think that real estate agents just play golf and have lunch with friends.
Robert: Yep, I think that is it. Right?
Jeremy: I do not play much golf, and I really do not have lunch often with friends. I have lunch occasionally with clients. But I am going to get out tomorrow. So headed out, thank you to my brother-in-law. He has got free golf at Sand Hollow. Sand Hollow was just, if you guys did not see this, there was an incredible article in Golf Digest talking about, it was a feature on Sand Hollow Golf Course out there in Hurricane, out there near, Hurricane, Utah, near Sand Hollow, what do you want to call it? Reservoir.
Robert: That is what it is called. Lake.
Jeremy: Yeah, so very cool. And I will have the opportunity tomorrow afternoon to go out with these guys with my father, and it is going to be a great time. But work must be done, and we have got to sell some real estate first, don’t we?
Robert: We have to. It is not an option.
Jeremy: It is not an option. It is not an option. Gang, if you are watching us on Facebook Live, say hi. Shoot out some hearts or a thumbs up or let us know that you are there, or if you have got questions for us, we are on, this fun.
Robert: We are on three.
Jeremy: We are on three phones.
Robert: We are on three. I have got Facebook Live on mine. We have got Jeremy’s Facebook Live.
Jeremy: And YouTube Live.
Robert: YouTube, YouTube Live.
Jeremy: How do you like that?
Robert: It is a new age.
Jeremy: And, of course, we are on the radio, which you are listening to.
Robert: Thanks, Mike, appreciate that.
Jeremy: Thank you, Mike. Incredible. So check this out. If you are a YouTuber, and some folks will say yeah, I do not do Facebook Live, YouTube dot come slash Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV. YouTube dot come slash Go St. George TV, and you will see us broadcasting live. Robert is running live and I am running live on Facebook.
Robert: Why not?
Jeremy: It is wild. It is wild. 94.9FM, 890AM. We are going to talk about something really cool today. So Robert is with me. Robert has been in my organization now for, pushing three years?
Robert: Pushing four.
Jeremy: Pushing four. Thank you. Jesse is over that hump. So Robert is with us. He is, I talk to him on Facebook. He is a, I actually think he is a home-pricing and home-selling expert and has been part of us now selling, I think we are at like almost 1200 homes.
Robert: I do, too.
Jeremy: That is a lot. Folks, that is a lot of properties. The average homeowner buys or sells every seven years, and of course, once they are an adult, then they are in the home.
Jeremy: It does not start at age zero.
Robert: Yeah. You know you have been selling real estate a long time when you actually, you see a home hit the market, and you are like that home looks familiar. And then you realize oh, that is because five years ago I sold that house.
Jeremy: We sold that. Yeah. It is fun, and I love to drive around and do that. And of course, I always tell my kids I sold that. I sold that. I sold that. I sold that. So it has been an interesting ride, and Robert is with us this morning, and we are going to be talking, so he really is. He is a home-pricing and home-selling expert. We are going to talk about the six pricing misconceptions that actually cost sellers money.
Robert: Is there only six?
Jeremy: There are a lot, but six is, man, I am telling you what.
Robert: It really boils down to these six.
Jeremy: Yeah, it boils down to these six, and it sounds like a lot. It is not a lot. It is really easy to digest, but this is a real issue right now because we have a lot of home owners, a lot of home sellers who are, they are aggravated right now. Why?
Robert: Mainly why because homes are sitting on the market. I was just sitting down with a client. Their home is actually for sale as a For Sale By Owner right up here on Bluff. And what happens a lot of times is for homes that were for sale by owner, they do not sell the home for a month –
Robert: — maybe two.
Robert: And then they reach out to a real estate agent and say hey, what am I doing wrong? So that is what ended up happening with this family over here on Bluff. And we sat down, and I noticed that in the $4-500,000 price range, the active homes on the market have been sitting there for an average of 102 days.
Jeremy: That is a long time.
Robert: That is an average, so some have been more. Obviously, some are less, but that is 106 homes sitting on the market for an average of 102 days. That is pretty –
Robert: That is not typical.
Jeremy: And here is the perspective for people. Last summer, most homes under $500,000, I am not going to give any specific other than under 500, they were sold in 30 days or less, and some folks, we have sold homes that I was thinking about, a home that we sold over on, the Jenkins home on Canara in Green Springs. Pseudo-luxury home, $480,000. We had multiple offers.
Jeremy: We had two buyers competing. We sold another one in Greens Springs in Silverstone. Two buyers competing at $650,000 for that home.
Robert: And I am sure we have home builders listening to the show –
Robert: — and I bet you more now than it has been in probably the last three years, spec homes have been sitting on the market.
Jeremy: Yeah, and it is going to freak people out.
Robert: They were not having to really do a whole ton of work trying to sell those before –
Jeremy: No, no, no.
Robert: — and now it is a different game. Just to kind of, it seems like overnight.
Jeremy: It is interesting. This is so subtle that it throws people off. And so we have a lot of home sellers who are frustrated, like man, I thought it was a good market.
Jeremy: And what we want to talk about are the six pricing misconceptions that cost you money, and also reiterate that it is a great market.
Robert: The best really.
Jeremy: It is an incredible market. The market that we were in for a little bit there was actually unsustainable and was akin to giving your kid the keys to your Corvette and telling them to drive 120 down the freeway indefinitely and assuming that nothing was ever going to go wrong.
Jeremy: Okay, at some point, okay –
Jeremy: — he is going to hit something.
Jeremy: And that is what our real estate market was doing. It was careening out of control. You cannot have homes sell that quickly. You cannot have, look we had appreciation in 2005, remember. 36%. We all remember how that turned out.
Robert: Yeah. And I think that is probably the biggest challenge I hear more than anything is well, in 2005, and they are always going back to this, now we are looking at 14 years ago.
Robert: Kids that were in diapers are now driving cars. Right?
Robert: That long ago. They are saying well, it was like this then. Why isn’t it like this now?
Robert: And the reality is we are looking at two different eras.
Robert: Completely different eras.
Jeremy: It is two different times. So it is fascinating because I mentioned a home in Green Springs at $650,000. It was sold for another radio personality who we have mentioned on air before with another firm in town, and he was delighted when I had two buyers competing against each other to buy his home.
Jeremy: The interesting part is that there was a 30-day period where the home was actually listed too high.
Jeremy: Let’s just find out what the market will bring. And the second, the second that price was brought in line, we are going to share with folks today, Robert, that you cannot what a home?
Robert: You cannot underprice a home.
Jeremy: Not even possible. But Robert, I do not want to give my home away.
Robert: Right, and I understand that. We all understand that. Nobody does.
Robert: Do you know anybody, Mike, can I have your house?
Jeremy: No. No.
Robert: He is not going (indiscernible)
Jeremy: But Robert, I do not want to leave money on the table.
Robert: And we understand that. That is a valid concern. Right? Nobody wants to leave money on the table.
Robert: So there is a strategy behind that.
Jeremy: And what we are saying is it is actually, this is incredible, I hope folks are listening who are selling right now, considering selling. Builders, you cannot underprice a home. It is actually not possible, and we are going to talk about why.
Robert: Right. Even in horrible markets, right, even in a full buyer’s market, which we are not in one, unless you are selling in the 600 and above, and really in some cases, depending on how unique the property is, that is not even a buyer’s market. Right? But for the most part, we are in a seller’s market from top to bottom.
Jeremy: We actually are.
Robert: So if you are in a seller’s market, what does that mean?
Jeremy: That means that the benefit, the advantages to the seller that there is a less supply, right, and the buyers are really hungry to gobble up the limited supply.
Robert: Yeah, it is the iPhone launch. Right? There are not as many iPhones on the market, but they are going to charge you $1200 and you are going to happily go pay that –
Robert: — which is not always true, and that cannot happen forever. Right?
Robert: I remember reading an article about Apple doing that, running into issues with that, and at the same time, because we are in that seller’s market, do you think Apple is like do you know what? I am really worried about selling this. Could I have asked $50 more?
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Robert: Am I leaving $50 on the table? No, they are not.
Jeremy: And this is so interesting. So let’s talk about this. Six pricing misconceptions. Okay. I am going to overview them. Is that fair enough?
Jeremy: So, Jeremy Larkin here. Host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. And I want to share something. I do not say this to impress. It is to impress upon you, right? So 1200 homes is where we are at as a real estate group here in Washington County. If you can imagine that 25% of the contracts fall out, as a matter of fact, this last year, 19.6% of the contracts, contracts that buyers wrote on our listings, 19.6% fell apart.
Robert: For one reason or another.
Jeremy: Yeah, the appraisal came in low. The buyer got cold feet.
Robert: The inspection came back poorly.
Jeremy: The inspection came back poorly. They could not get financing. Right? Whatever. All right. 19.6%. So for us to sell 1200 homes, we actually had to sell, to put on the market, we had to deal with 120%.
Jeremy: But the reality is it was not because we probably spoke to 250 or 300% as many clients –
Robert: To get those.
Jeremy: — to get to there. Okay. So understand, folks, that we have literally had thousands, this is where the –
Jeremy: I am even baffled saying this out loud. We have actually had tens of thousands of real estate conversations. Tens of thousands of conversations with buyers and sellers. Okay. So, it just gives some credibility to what we are talking about here. These scenarios never change. It does not matter whether you are in Cincinnati or Miami, Florida or St. George, Utah, these are realities. Okay. Six pricing misconceptions. Your home is not worth what you paid.
Jeremy: Well, it could be, but it is not worth what you need. But Robert, I need 450.
Robert: We all need a million dollars. Right?
Jeremy: It is not worth what you want.
Jeremy: It is not worth what your neighbor says.
Robert: I disagree with you there. My neighbor, he knows a lot about real estate.
Jeremy: I know.
Robert: He has sold two or three homes.
Jeremy: He has sold two or three homes and he drives for Andrus Trucking, but he is a real estate expert. It is not worth what your neighbor says. It is not worth what another agent no matter how bad they want to get your business –
Jeremy: And it is not even worth what it costs to rebuild.
Robert: I think it is interesting. You say it is not what another agent says. That includes yours truly.
Jeremy: Right. Right because do we determine the value of a home?
Robert: Absolutely not.
Jeremy: Absolutely not. So we do not make the market. We just interpret the market. So if Robert goes out or myself or one of our team and you hire us to sell your home, we do not make the market. We do not come in and say well, I think it is actually worth 425. We may say that based on all the data and that is what we do, but we do not make the market.
Jeremy: In every market, for every product, who determines value, Robert?
Robert: The buyer. That is a t-shirt. That is a cell phone. That is a car.
Jeremy: Yes, everything.
Robert: It does not matter. A burger.
Jeremy: Yep. Buyers determine value.
Robert: Always. That is the free market.
Jeremy: The greatest example on the whole planet right now, at least I think it is the greatest example, I am a Disneyland fan. And I heard 30 days ago they raised their prices again.
Jeremy: And it came across Facebook or something and I saw one of these blogs that is like a Disney insider’s blog. And what they said is does not matter. It is not deterring anyone. Right?
Robert: Netflix is another example.
Jeremy: Oh my gosh, right.
Robert: They raised the price of Netflix. They did a survey. How many people are going to stop using Netflix? 76% said that it was not going to phase them at all. Of the remaining piece, only 3% said they would probably stop watching Netflix. 3% and they raised it like, I think it was like, they raised it like $5 or something like that for the top plan.
Jeremy: Right. Right. So buyers determine value. And here is the point. You may say well wait, if Netflix and Disney are raising their prices, I can, too. No, what we are saying is the market is determining value.
Jeremy: So today, they said it is $190 to buy a one-day hopper to Disney (indiscernible)
Robert: I have got a sidebar.
Jeremy: Good grief.
Robert: My sister she lives up in Salt Lake. Her and her family, it has been ten years since they have been to Disneyland.
Robert: They just went this last week. She has got a sweet picture of the whole family all of them wearing fanny packs like it is 1980.
Jeremy: Everything is just regurgitated.
Robert: Isn’t it so funny?
Jeremy: It is 1980 again.
Robert: It is so funny, man.
Jeremy: It is Marty McFly. Right? 1985.
Robert: They were the best fanny packs. Good strong, there are six of them, all with fanny packs.
Jeremy: You know what? I think the next time I am going back I am wearing a fanny pack.
Robert: You should rock it, man.
Jeremy: And you realize they spent thousands on tickets.
Robert: They did.
Jeremy: And it is not going to deter people. So until Disney raises their price to a level that the market says oooo, now that is out of range. Right? Here is another thing. So folks, one of the challenges we have is that how many Disneylands are there? There are about a half dozen.
Jeremy: There is Disneyland, Disney World, Tokyo, Paris, are there six? Are there two more that I do not remember. Okay. Maybe that is it.
Robert: Asking the wrong guy.
Jeremy: Okay. How many homes are hitting the market every month right now in Washington County?
Robert: About 300.
Jeremy: Another three, and by the way, as many as six in a big month.
Robert: Oh yeah.
Jeremy: Three to six hundred homes –
Robert: Like the one we are coming up to. Right.
Jeremy: Right. We are in the biggest month right now. See the difference is, folks, we are not Disneyland. These are homes, and even though you love your home, and I know that you, I realize how much time you spent on the custom cabinets and the custom closet inserts, and that was important to you. Right? You put those in for your enjoyment. And Robert, did you enjoy them?
Robert: Oh, absolutely.
Jeremy: Right. Did you put them in for the next buyer to use?
Robert: No. Actually, I did not.
Jeremy: Probably no, but I read an article on home improvement and it said –
Robert: Zillow told me that I could get a $15,000 return if I remodeled my bathroom.
Jeremy: Right. So the reality is buyers will always, yeah, buyers will always determine the value. So as we walk through this. What you paid. If you paid for your home an exorbitant amount in 2005, understand that values fell in Washington County 46% since 2005, 2006, and they have come back, that was between 2006 and 11, and they have come back 42%.
Jeremy: Overall. So we have almost gained back every bit of what we lost. But do you realize it took us five years to lose it and another almost six years to get it back? Almost seven years to get it back. So if you followed that, in 2005, values were really high. In 2011, values were really low. In 2018, values are really high, and now it is 2019. Where can we only predict that values can realistically be in the next few years? Not higher.
Robert: Or, if so, we had to weather going down to come back up eventually.
Jeremy: Right. So for our home sellers right now, what I want to articulate is there are six pricing misconceptions and when you put your home on the market at a price well, I paid this, well I need this, well I want this, well my neighbor said this, well an agent told me, well do you know what it would cost me to rebuild this day? None of it has any bearing on what your home is worth. What your home will be worth is what a reasonable buyer with funds available and the initiative to move into your home will pay in today’s market. And what I am trying to, want to make sure that we convey is that even though, even though right now, Robert, a whole bunch of your clients, my clients, in the area are frustrated saying but I thought I could sell for blank. They need to understand that the price that they need to be at, which is probably 5% lower is an amazing price.
Jeremy: Is an amazing price.
Robert: It is all perspective. It is all about perspective.
Jeremy: If someone had told them in 2011, if someone had told these people in 2011 when I was selling Hidden Valley townhomes for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and HUD, government foreclosures for $85,000 –
Jeremy: What is Hidden Valley at right now? 170?
Robert: Maybe a little more.
Jeremy: If someone had told somebody in 2011, hey you know your Hidden Valley townhome that you have to sell for 85 right now? It is going to go back to 170 or 80 thousand dollars, it is going to double in value by 2018. Would have kissed me on my face if they could have had the old almanac. You know the almanac from Back to the Future.
Robert: Back to the Future.
Jeremy: If I could have predicted that, would you have been very happy with me?
Robert: Biff, I would be so happy.
Jeremy: I know you would. So it is all perspective. So even though, and the most important two words of today’s show are even though. Even though you feel frustrated today that the market will not bring quite what you want, you need to realize that the market is bringing you the, this is one of the highest price points in the history of American housing today. And what is going to have to happen is this. You are going to have to amend that price mostly as folks are. And here is the challenge. Robert, if I know you are a baseball player, and a few other sports.
Robert: Go Yankees.
Jeremy: Yeah, go Yankees. Hand-to-hand combat. I actually watched you do hand-to-hand combat that day with Creed. When the ball –
Robert: I won.
Jeremy: Yeah, when the ball, you kind of did. When the ball goes away from the field and it is rolling down a slope away from you, what is the only way to get to the ball?
Robert: You have to get in front of it.
Jeremy: Yes. So, folks, envision. You are a kid. You are chasing a ball. It is rolling down a hill, and you are lunging. Right? You are lunging.
Robert: Trying to stand. Keep standing. Try not to fall.
Jeremy: Tearing your hip flexor. The only way to stop the ball is to get in front. And so, if folks want to actually capture the highest price for their home it is important that they get in front of the ball and not be chasing the ball. And right now, we have sellers who are chasing the ball. And in six months, they are going to look back and say what?
Robert: Man, I probably just should have just made the move six months ago.
Jeremy: Yeah. But I was so convinced that I needed that extra 5%. Right? Why is it impossible to underprice a home?
Robert: Well, I think there are a couple of reasons, but the main reason why is because one you hit that price where all of the buyers know that truly there is value, because it is value. It is just like going down the street and hey milk is $3 a gallon at Smith’s –
Jeremy: Got it.
Robert: — and it is $3.50 at Albertson’s, I will drive across town to save that fifty cents. Right? I will do whatever it takes to get the cheaper value or the value I see that is actually there. So if I price it to a spot to where I know multiple buyers are in it, I am not going to wait. I am going to worry about the fact that somebody else is going to get it if I do not, and so I am going to pay 100% of what they are asking because I do not want to lose it.
Jeremy: Do you think this is true even for the luxury, the high-end market? Let’s talk to our luxury listeners right now.
Robert: Oh, absolutely. I think the luxury in this, specifically in this town, our high-end clients, the people that own second homes here or have retired here and put their nest egg in a beautiful home because we get probably some of the most amazing homes for the best value in my opinion.
Jeremy: We sure do.
Robert: In this town.
Jeremy: We sure do. We have folks come out of California and go wait a minute. $1 million for this? This was three back home.
Robert: Exactly. It is unbelievable. The biggest mistake I see happen is realtors tell them it is worth more than it really is, and the list to sales price of luxury homes is significantly different than it is even at the six, five and six hundred thousand. At 500,000, they are getting 99.9% of their asking price. At a million dollars, they are getting 92% of their asking price.
Jeremy: Good grief. You sold, okay, this is fun, I looked at this. You sold the most expensive home in Bloomington. It is the highest sale I have seen in five years. What was the sales price?
Jeremy: Okay. 1.070. Okay?
Jeremy: $1,070,000 on Jolly Circle.
Robert: Beautiful house by the way.
Jeremy: Yeah, there was some marketing that was done.
Jeremy: We shot this killer –
Robert: Sweet video.
Jeremy: This video and –
Robert: We are going to put it out on Facebook.
Jeremy: Yeah, we will link it up for you. Incredible video. A guy hitting a golf ball, it is actually me, but you cannot really tell it is me unless you know it is me.
Robert: You shanked it. It actually was not even that good of a hit.
Jeremy: I actually hit it right on the green, I think. But we shot this incredible video, and there was some marketing that had to be created for this home. But no amount of marketing –
Jeremy: Nothing would have changed the value of that hope.
Jeremy: But Jeremy, wait a minute. You mean that marketing does not matter? Oh I did not say it did not matter. Marketing is actually, in a lot of ways, a defensive measure. It is a protective measure to ensure that you get all of the value out of your home.
Jeremy: But buyers will not pay you more than the value. They do not say you know that video that you guys shot? That was incredible, and I am a really smart buyer that has enough money to spend a million dollars for a home. I think I will pay you an extra hundred grand because the video was so impressive.
Robert: Yeah, I was just blown away.
Jeremy: The video, right, the video was to make sure that we got them all their value. It is impossible to under price your home because if you price your home even quote below market you will have multiple buyers bid against and raise the price. Downtown St. George, Putnam’s home, you sold it for twenty grand over the asking price?
Robert: Twenty grand over asking.
Jeremy: $20,000 over the asking price because buyers bid against each other.
Robert: And in downtown St. George, they are selling for what the value is.
Jeremy: They are. Bingo.
Robert: They are not selling for an inflated value. They are just selling for what they are worth.
Jeremy: Thanks, Robert. Hey, let’s go sell some real estate today.
Robert: Hey, why not?
Jeremy: Let’s do that.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. For more information, call 275-1690 or online find them at Sold in St. George dot com.
Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Mike: KDXU news time. It is 8:36. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday, tenth day of the month of January. It is time for the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning. Good morning. And if you happen to be, let’s see, where could it be afternoon? Europe, Mike?
Mike: I am sure.
Jeremy: I was doing the math. I am like okay, in New York City it is still morning. Listen, if you are somewhere in the mid-Atlantic Ocean, good afternoon. If you are somewhere in Europe, good late afternoon. If you are in Asia, it is nighttime. Right? And then I’m going to come all the way around.
Mike: Yeah, it is another day over there.
Jeremy: So anyway, welcome to the world geographic and weather program where we tell you all sorts of fun facts about time zone you are in. Good morning to our Facebook Live, YouTube Live, now this is really fun. Now, Jesse, when we put on the YouTube Live, did we make it public?
Jesse: I do not know.
Jeremy: That is what we do not know. You might want to check on that. Just so everybody knows, we now broadcast the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive live on YouTube and Facebook simultaneously. It is classic. It is classic. As a matter of fact, I will get a photo of this right now. Jeremy Larkin here, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. So happy to be with you. I have got my good friend and cohort, business partner, Jesse Poll –
Jesse: Good morning.
Jeremy: — looking very sharp in his suit coat. I have got Mike McGarry, who is a short-timer here at KDXU radio. Just over here, he is really, he is spinning the tracks.
Mike: That is right. By the way, it is 3:38 in the afternoon in London.
Jeremy: Thank you.
Mike: Just doing it for you.
Jeremy: So it is eight hours, right?
Jeremy: Eight hours. Okay. Eight hours. Thank you. Thank you. Okay, give us Singapore. Will you just do one more? What about Singapore? Why am I saying Singapore? It seemed like a place that is far away, and I was looking last night, gang, at the Costco Travel Guide. You know when you are coming out of Costco, there is the travel guide on the wall and I was looking at what time is it, Mike?
Jeremy: 11:38pm in Singapore. So there you go. You did not know that, did you Jesse?
Jesse: I did not.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is kind of fun.
Jesse: I have heard Singapore is a pretty cool place to visit though.
Jeremy: Yeah, it looks really cool, so I was looking at some Costco Travel, and there was Singapore and there was Bora Bora where you can go stay, the bungalows, the over-water bungalows. Now here is why I did know more or less what time it was in Singapore. So for many years at the Larkin Group, for our listeners, you understand that we help people buy and sell real estate here in Washington County. Buy and sell means purchasing a home for their family, selling a home because it is time to move, and of course, work on purchasing a real estate investment property. We have a gal by the name of Charmie Mendoza, this is so fun. So fun. By the way, with her bonus, she is going to help her son buy a laptop. His first laptop.
Jesse: That is really cool.
Jeremy: She is a single mom. She lives in the Philippines. She is right outside of Manila, and we hired her through some friends of ours in Sacramento who run a company where they hire Filipino folks to help real estate agents. Culturally, they are really, really incredible at tasking. Like you give the list of 200 tasks, and whatever it is, they just nail this. Right?
Jesse: Something that will take me 30 minutes, she will do in 5.
Jeremy: In five. Right? So, she has worked for us for four years, four years. She is a single mom in the Philippines. So by the way, it is 11:30, 12pm, probably the same time in the Philippines, right, Mike?
Jeremy: She has gone to work for us right now. So if I were to message Charmie right now, she is sitting at her desk. Her son has gone to sleep, and she will work for us through the night. So she works nights. She will work all night long, and then her son will get up, and she will send him to school and then she will go to sleep. Just like anyone who works nights. Sometimes I will email her at about 10pm our time. I will sit down and be shooting some emails out, and I have seen her respond because now she is back up. It is afternoon there. Amazing woman, and we did a Christmas bonus for her, and she is going to get a laptop for her kid. Kind of fun.
Jesse: That is cool.
Jeremy: I know you think about real estate as HGTV and what you do is you go and you look at three homes and you go to open houses. Our business is very different from that. It is a very digital business. So when you are hiring a great real estate agent, they are going to have a whole digital backend that you do not have any idea about, and that is what she does for us. She handles a lot of our digital marketing.
Jesse: Speaking of digital business, this report that we were looking at, it is something like in the 80-something percent, I am looking for it right now, of homes find their home or clients find their home on the internet. That is a huge –
Jeremy: I thought it was ninety, I thought it was like 90%. Was I wrong?
Jesse: So let’s see. Newspapers are down to four, less than five percent?
Jeremy: How do people find their homes? Give it to us.
Jesse: Yard signs is about 20% and the rest of them, so about 75% will find their home first on the internet.
Jeremy: Yeah, so to be clear about this, this is the home they purchased. Okay? The home they purchased. Good morning again to our Facebook Live and YouTube Live listeners. So if you want to check it out. I do not even know who is a YouTube Liver, but what YouTube Live is allowing us to do is, more than anything, save the show straight to our YouTube channel, which is YouTube dot com slash, if you would like to look it up, Go St. George TV. Slash Go St. George TV. So what it is allowing us to do is already have the show, when we walk out of here it is done, and it is posted to YouTube, and there is no fuss, no muss. Something like that. I do not know what they say. But with our Facebook Live listeners, if you have got a question, please ask us anything. We are going to talk today about how much you might expect your home value to go up or down. Right? How much will it go up or down, your value in 2019. Amongst many, many other things. Today is the economic summit, the St. George Washington County Economic Summit down at the Convention Center, and I will not be there, which typically for years I have been there. But I have decided, elected that we have got more pressing work. The Economic Summit is really neat, but the challenge is they charge you a hundred bucks to go spend the day there. It is kind of a networking event, but what they do is this is where they talk about all the new business unveilings, who is the big corporation who is going to town and create new jobs. They are going to give a big old massive real estate report. Folks, just so you know. We already have all that information.
Jeremy: I am literally looking at it on my screen right now. So instead of spending $100 and spending 7 hours, we are just going to go ahead and put on a radio show, and then work to help our clients. The Economic Summit is really cool. I do not want to downplay it. But here is the cool part. We will just take the notes and the summary, and we will present it to you. We will have Chantry Abbot from Guild Mortgage here in studio and talk about interest rates and oh my gosh, about the fact that they went down.
Jesse: Isn’t that crazy?
Jeremy: We are actually going to talk about affordability and why it is such an interesting time in real estate, where it is the best time for you to possibly sell in the last decade. People are going to have their minds blown when we show them, when we talk about how much values have gone up and down over the last decade. They are going to be shocked, shocked, and it is such a strange time, where it is the best time to sell and probably still one of the best times to buy.
Jeremy: Because of interest rates. Excuse me, I am getting choked up because it is very emotional to talk about real estate for me, Jesse.
Jesse: You are a pretty emotional guy anyway.
Jeremy: I know I am. So Jesse, did you see the stat that we were looking at yesterday in my office about the appreciation in 2005 of homes in St. George?
Jesse: I did, and I am going from memory here because I just glanced at it. I think it said 39%.
Jesse: 36. I was close.
Jeremy: Very good. I literally had a piece of paper on my desk, and Jesse looked at it. Folks, I want you to think about this for a minute. Jeremy Larkin, by the way, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. If you have got questions, comments, happy to hear from you, and we are broadcasting Facebook Live, Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin, and we are on YouTube Live. YouTube dot com, so just look up Jeremy Larkin. YouTube dot com slash Go St. George TV. So 36%, I want you, our listeners to really consider what I am about to tell you. Historic appreciation of homes annualized, how much homes went up in value, is like 5%. Right? Four, 4-5% annually. Okay?
Jesse: And that is a good, stable number.
Jeremy: Like a healthy market.
Jeremy: Do you remember the economic meltdown that we had, Jesse, and people are trying to figure out how we ever got there?
Jeremy: Home values went up in 2005 36%.
Jesse: That is nuts. In one year?
Jeremy: Basically, they did seven years, seven, eight years realistically, eight years of appreciation in one single calendar year. And then we wonder why in 2007 everything fell apart. Very specifically what was going on in 2005 and 6 and whether you are wondering if we are going to have a bubble. We had what was called Stated Income Loans going on. Stated Income looks just like this. Jesse comes in the office. I am a mortgage lender. I am not a mortgage lender. I just play one on TV. But to be clear, we will pretend I am. He comes in the office. He says I would like to buy a home. Well, what kind of home would you like to buy? I would like to buy a $400,000 home. Great. You will need to earn about $150,000, and here is a form for you to fill out your income. Well, you put on the form that you happen to make $150,000, that you just so happened to make $150,000. People were stating their income. That is called Stated Income. And of course, when a market goes up 36%, and by the way, this was not just St. George. This was all of them.
Jesse: That was nationwide.
Jeremy: It was crazy. Definitely was Nevada, California, Florida, Arizona. Then a lot of fraud started popping up. So we are not in that market, and we are not experiencing a bubble. So 36% appreciation in one year. Now here is what is fascinating. Folks say man, values fell a lot after that and it seems like they have come up a lot. Oh, I will tell you exactly how much they fell. Values fell 46% from 2006 to 2011 in Washington County. 46% they fell. From 2012 to 2018, they have come up 42%. So we fell by 46%. We are back up 42%. We are virtually back to where we were before. And people, but wait a minute. Here is the difference. We did that at about 6% a year.
Jeremy: That is the difference.
Jesse: Over a five-year period. Six actually.
Jeremy: Yeah, we did that at about 6% per year. We are in a very healthy real estate market in Washington County. Very, very healthy. But we have clients who are struggling because they are saying man, it seems like my home will not sell at its current price. The reason it is becoming a very healthy market is because buyers finally said we are not going to quite pay those prices. Right? Like this is hang on a minute now. So prices are settling. I did not say there is depreciation, that homes are going down in value. It is simply folks realizing they cannot quite ask what they hoped, and so there is an adjustment going on.
Jeremy: So, Jesse, let’s talk about this for a minute. Historic mortgage rates by the decade. Okay? Slide number two, and just so folks know, we are going to share this on our Facebook page today. So when this is done, we will post this in the comments. As a matter of fact, let’s see if it will post into the comments as we speak. Historic interest rates by decade. You got that in front of you?
Jesse: I do not. I am looking for it.
Jeremy: Second slide. Let’s look at this. This is kind of crazy.
Jeremy: Well, page, slide three, I guess. 1970s, 1970s. Anyone out there born in the 1970s? I was. I was born in 1975. Interest rates were 8.86%. Do you know what an interest rate is today, listeners? Anybody out there? We are at about four and a half. Four and a half. 4 ½%. 1970s the average interest rate was 8.86%. It was twice as expensive to own a home. Now people say wait, do you mean that homes were twice as expensive? No, I said it was twice as expensive to own it, to pay for it with your mortgage.
Jesse: I think we are looking at different reports.
Jeremy: What is that?
Jeremy: I think I pulled up the wrong report. So I am just going to go with it.
Jeremy: Good. There you go. There you go. We are looking at, gang, interest rates were twice, twice as expensive, twice as high in the 1970s. Twice as high. Okay? Is that crazy? Is that crazy? And by the way, Jesse, we are looking at January 2019.
Jesse: Okay, so I had December.
Jeremy: There you go.
Jesse: I did not see January in there.
Jeremy: It is in there if you pull it up there. Listen. Would someone come on the show and help this guy out? I am just kidding. He is great. He is just pulling up –
Jesse: It is probably the one at the very top.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is the one right in front of you that says 2000, it says January. 1980s. Anyone born in the 1980s?
Jesse: There it is.
Jeremy: Interest rates were 12.7% average. The average interest rate in the 1980s was 12.7%. It was three times as expensive to pay interest on your home –
Jeremy: — in the 1980s as it is today. In the 1990s, Jesse, where were we at?
Jeremy: Twice as expensive to pay for your interest rate. And in the 2000s? Because we are not in the 2000s anymore. We are in the two thousand teens.
Jeremy: So 30% more expensive to pay for your interest on your home. If you get nothing else from this show today, nothing else, listen, please listen. I am going to talk to three groups. You ready? I am going to qualify every single listener on this show. All right? If you are an older person, an empty-nester, a retired person and you have adult children who are saying should I buy a home. I think values are kind of high. I do not know. The answer is yes. Most likely yes. We would need to ask a few more questions, and you are going to say Sonny, do you know interest rates were in the 1980s when I went to buy my first home? They were 12.7%. They were actually as high 18. Okay? If you are a middle-aged person saying do I buy a home? Do I move up? I have been wanting to sell my home and move up, but the challenge is I am not sure because if I sell my home, homes are so expensive. The answer is probably yes because remember if you sell your home in a high market, if you buy a home in a high market, that means you sold your home in a high market. So you are trading across, and remember interest rates could be twice this. Could be. They will eventually be back at 8%. It is probably inevitable. If you are young person saying I am not sure I should buy a home. I just want to be flexible. Let me remind you that again, if you had any concept because you cannot, because how could you have a concept. I do not know what it was like to live in the 1950s because I did not. If you could have a true perspective on how cheap it is borrow money to buy a home right now, you would realize that paying your landlord is literally insanity if you do not have to. I said if you do not have to. I am not calling you insane. Are you calling me insane? Right? Jesse, am I right or am I crazy?
Jesse: Well, you are crazy sometimes. But I think you are right.
Jeremy: But I am right. Okay. So year-over-year home prices, this is kind of crazy, values have been up everywhere. Everywhere across the country values have gone up. Real estate values have gone up for the last how many years now, Jess? Six years?
Jesse: Six years, since, they bottomed out in 2011 and started coming back up.
Jeremy: So let’s talk about price changes. Okay?
Jesse: Seven years.
Jeremy: Yeah, seven years. So we look at slide 11 here. People want to know, I asked the question do you want to know how much your home is going to go up in value this year or down in value. Let’s look at 11, 12, 13. Those Jess, right? The mountain region, here is what is really cool. We have data right now. I can tell you how much values have gone up in the Pacific, Mountain, Mountain West, West North Central, East North Central, Mid-Atlantic and the New England states, or I can tell you the South Atlantic. I can keep going. We have all this data. Values in the mountain region, and if you want to know what the Mountain region is go straight down to Arizona and then go straight up to the Canadian border through the inter-mountain West. Values are up 8.9% in 2000, year over year for the last year. 8.9%. What about Utah? Do we have Utah? I think we do.
Jesse: There are two different, I think it is Utah is –
Jeremy: What are we year over year price changes? I am trying to remember if they have it.
Jesse: Year over year is 8.8.
Jeremy: 8.8%. So look at this. We have seen an 8.8% appreciation in Utah over the last year. So we do have that information. The United States, by the way, 5.1%. So we are outpacing, do you know what I mean? We are outpacing it. Now the question is asked isn’t it less affordable right now because values are up? Well, of course, it is less affordable because values are up. Right? And I do not want to interpret for anyone listening to our show today that values, that it has not become less affordable because values are up.
Jeremy: Yeah, what we are simply stating is that because interest rates are so stinking low that it will likely be just as affordable to buy a home now, it will actually be more affordable to buy a home now than to buy a home that is reduced by $100,000 at an interest rate that is twice as high.
Jeremy: It is just, that is just the way it is.
Jesse: Well, the likelihood that the market will go down by $100,000 is –
Jeremy: That is a low –
Jesse: The economy would have to stop again.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is a very low chance. So every single piece of economic data that we have is pointing to us returning to normal, healthy market levels, which means what are we looking at for price changes? Do we think values are going to go up? What do you think? What are they saying?
Jesse: So what they are saying overall for next year is 4.8 for the country, but in Utah here they are saying 4.7.
Jeremy: 4.7. So that –
Jesse: I think that is true. I think that the momentum that we have right now, it will take more than a little bit to stop.
Jeremy: Who is they? I am going to tell you who they is. This is Freddie Mac. National Association of Realtors. Fannie Mae, a company called Kay Schiller, CoreLogic, I could keep going.
Jesse: There was actually I think 104 different economists or groups that was in the study.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. So they went out –
Jesse: It is not just one guy.
Jeremy: They went out and they asked the specialists. There are the specialists and then there is the anyway. They asked the scientists. They asked the economists. They asked any and everybody who is a player in studying this information what do you think is going to happen to the home values in 2019? And in Washington County they are predicting, excuse me, not Washington County. Utah. Four point?
Jeremy: 4.8% in the state of Utah for 2019. Now your home. What does that mean? It is hard to say because we, your neighborhood is very, very case specific. And I am going to tell you that if you are selling a home in Stonecliff or Entrada, it is a very different situation.
Jesse: Yeah that is –
Jeremy: Very different situation than if you are selling your home in downtown St. George.
Jeremy: Santa Clara.
Jesse: And we will throw a report that will cover that for Washington County, even for St. George because if you are talking Stonecliff, you are looking at probably about a year to two years of inventory that is for sale. If you are talking downtown St. George, you are looking at less than two months.
Jeremy: What do you mean by a year of inventory though?
Jesse: Well, if no other homes came on the market, it would take a year or two depending on what price point to sell every home that is on the market. Downtown St. George, it is less than two months.
Jesse: So it is a big difference.
Jeremy: How about that? Right? It would take one to two years, up to two years to go through all of that inventory. Can you imagine if cereal was sitting on a shelf for two years? Now there are a lot of preservatives in cold cereal. Right? But guess what? It would go bad, wouldn’t it? And what Jesse is saying is absolutely right. Downtown St. George, it is one to two months. Here is what that means. In two months, if nobody else put their home on the market, we would be out of homes to sell.
Jesse: We would be out of homes.
Jeremy: Okay, and by the way, we have specific areas. If you are thinking about selling a home, we have folks looking for homes and they cannot find them in this market. We played around last week, and we talked about our $1 Listing Program? Is it real? It is absolutely real.
Jesse: It is real.
Jeremy: So, you can sell a home for as little as a buck. Terms and conditions apply. Yeah, you do need to buy another home through us. And guess what? Well, what if I am not going to buy another home through you? We have a program for that, too.
Jesse: We have a program for you, too.
Jeremy: Which is the Save Up to $10,000 Program. So we are having some fun in the month of January. Save as little as $1250. But here is the deal, Jesse, what is that percentage? What can people hope for this year for appreciation?
Jeremy: Yeah, we are going to hope for it. The only we are going to find out is –
Jesse: We will have a debate next January.
Jeremy: The only way we are going to find out is we are going to have to spend the next year.
Jesse: Figure out who is right and who is wrong.
Jeremy: I do not know if he is right. There you go. Thanks gang. Appreciate you watching and listening and share this on your Facebook page if you are watching with your friends. Over and out.
Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday morning. It is time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in once again with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Hopefully Mike will plug me in here. I do not know where this thing plugs into. It plugs in somewhere. Hey, we are live in the Cherry Creek Radio Studios on North Bluff Street. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, you would see the chaos ensuing. By the way, chaos unneeded in life. It is okay to not have chaos. It is okay to live drama-free. It is not a problem.
Jesse: But it is not fun.
Jeremy: Nah. Yes, it is. It is a lot of fun, and it is okay to live without drama. I assure you right now. Okay? So you have a little, thank you, Mike, little snafu. Plugged in. I can actually hear now and be involved and engaged in, as they say, present with you. Hey, Merry Christmas. You can hear the jingling of the bells. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, I think just envision a little more than, not lime but not forest green sweatshirt with a bunch of kitty cats all over the front of it with bells, actual bells and a few Christmas bows. I think it is a nice sweatshirt. I asked Jesse to wear an ugly sweatshirt this morning. Ugly sweater, he put on a nice sweater.
Jesse: Well, I could not find my Christmas sweater, my ugly sweater. So I have a shirt. I thought that was for later.
Jeremy: Well, he asked a question this morning in our group feed. Over at the Larkin Group, we run a real estate company. If you guys do not know who we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Been hosting this show for at least five years. We might have pushed clear back into 2012, which would be over five years. I know we are five years, and we run a real estate company here in St. George, Utah, and we help people through what seems really easy but ends up being the third most harrowing experience of their life shy of a birth, a death, fourth most, a birth, a death or a divorce. Literally, buying and selling and moving is –
Jeremy: — it seems to be next for most people. We help people through that process –
Jesse: Very stressful.
Jeremy: — of buying and selling and investing and help them make good decisions. But I have got Jesse Poll here, one of my business partners, great guy. But this morning on the group chat, we have a group chat. Right? And he said do you want us to bring a Christmas sweater or an ugly sweater? And I said there is no difference, dude. There is no such thing as a Christmas sweater that is not ugly. It is actually a fact.
Jesse: Now, I am corrected. There you go.
Jeremy: I do not care if you show up with a reindeer on your shirt –
Jesse: That is ugly.
Jeremy: — like a nice stag and you think something like this is cool. This is masculine. It is an ugly sweater, dude.
Jesse: And there you go.
Jeremy: Okay, so as long as we know that. Hey, if you are not watching us on Facebook Live, please, you can pick it up and you can see what we are doing. Ask us anything. This is one of the things that we are going to start talking about on our shows. You can ask us anything about the real estate market. And if you do, it should pop up on our screen here. Today, we are going to talk about, it is, by the way, December 20, 2018 for those who are picking up our show later on the podcast or over at our website, Sold in St. George dot com. If you would like to listen to past shows, you can literally go to Sold in St. George dot com. Each show is about 23 minutes long, 24 minutes.
Jeremy: And we have them on there again. Sold in St. George dot com and click on the blog. But if you are watching on Facebook, let us know you are out there. Give us a thumb or a heart or ask a question. Ask us anything. We are going to talk about five things you have to know about the real estate market moving into 2018, 2019, excuse me. Because 2018 is eleven days ready to expire, right. Eleven days from now we will be done with this year, and you will be writing, fortunately, most people are not writing checks. We do at our office, and you can stop putting the wrong date on, or start putting the wrong date on everything.
Jesse: This is the first year I did not do that. Maybe it is because I do not write checks anymore.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Well, there you go. There you go. I write a handful. Not personally. Well, occasionally even personally I write one, but typically, typically, I am writing checks only for the business. So you all know what we are talking about. Right? It is January 7th, 10th, 20th, 30th, and I do not even know if there is a 40th in there, and you are still writing 2000, I think you write 2018, the previous year until at least June.
Jesse: At least.
Jeremy: And then you start over. Hey, here is a New Year’s resolution for everybody. Most people burn out on their resolutions by about January 20th, and do you know why? This is actually not a joke. I am going to tell you why if you would like to know.
Jesse: Because they are unrealistic. They are not really goals.
Jeremy: They may be realistic.
Jesse: They are pipe dreams most of, most of the New Year’s resolutions that I have ever done is a pipe dream, and they change my entire being instead of just making a little bit of an improvement.
Jeremy: And I like that. So they may be realistic. They may not, but what you are saying is right. What happens is, so we work in the real estate community, and we will be doing some business planning tomorrow as a team. We will go off site and do some great motivation and business planning for 2019. Well, what will happen is someone will say I want to lose 20 pounds in 2019. Or I want to sell 30 homes in 2019. So they divide that out by the months, and they say okay, I am going to have to lose X number of pounds or sell X number of homes per month. What happens is about January 20th, 25th, they find out that they are already behind, and what we do is we start to hate ourselves right then. We go oh well, this is just like 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, and 12 when I said the same thing. And oh five and six. And instantaneously, we start to hate ourselves for, and I know hate is such a strong word, but I have to be honest, folks. It is pretty much a hatred if you are real honest out there. I realize you are saying are we doing a psychology show? Well, real estate is psychology. But just for fun, here is a New Year’s resolution. You write out who it is you want to be, what you want to have, and what you want to do, and you start with who you want to be because that is what we are going to do tomorrow as a team. Who do I want to be? What will I need to do to have what I want to have? Right? And if I cannot be the kind of person that has those things, then I will not be able to have them, that does those things, I will not be able to do the things to have the things.
Jeremy: Then the resolution, folks, is you just accept yourself where you are at. And if January 20th comes around and you were supposed to lose three pounds and you have lost zero, you say, you know what, I love myself for the effort I am making all the way through January 20th. That is 20 days I was making a stronger effort I was during the month of December when I was eating all the goodies that they kept dropping off at my office. And the neighbors kept swinging by. Boy, it was nice of them to bring me toffee and fudge.
Jeremy: And then guess what you do? You get up on January 21st, and you reboot, and you try again. That is the resolution that I am going to encourage our listeners to do. Is you love yourself for the goal.
Jesse: You just keep going?
Jeremy: Yep, you love yourself for failing at the goal. You love yourself for your humanity. You love yourself for the fact that you screwed up the previous five years, and then you just keep going.
Jesse: But I think the most important part of what you just said is we do not take into fact that it is going to take a little bit longer to actually get the habit or the whatever we are reaching for –
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: — to start to show up. Take the weight loss. It may be in the 35th day that it really starts to change our metabolism.
Jeremy: Yeah. We have been thinking a certain way for 30, 40 years most of us, and sometimes 50, 60, 70. So hey, that is your psychology lesson for this morning.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: But truly, I think it makes such an impact when you are able to do that. Let’s talk about five things you have to know about St. George and the real estate market. So we, Jesse and I, last night and this morning, excuse me, we spent a few hours breaking down some information provided by a company called Keeping Current Matters and a fellow named Steve Harney. And what Steve Harney does, Keeping Current Matters is he spends all of his days and nights, drum roll please, researching the market. That is all he does.
Jesse: This guy says he reads eight hours a day. Reads.
Jeremy: And we have a lot of real estate. By the way, the failure rate for real estate agents is you make decisions to hire an agent in 2019. The failure rate for real estate agents is 87% over how long?
Jesse: Five years.
Jeremy: Over five years. So, 87% of real estate agents will either quit the business entirely or take another full-time job even if they keep their license active over a five-year period.
Jesse: You know what number surprised me in that data was there is 1.3 million real estate agents, and only 47,000 of those that will do more than 25 units or transactions a year.
Jeremy: Okay, so think about this. 1.3 million real estate agents –
Jesse: In the U.S.
Jeremy: In the U.S., right. And 43,000, is that what they said?
Jeremy: 47,000 –
Jesse: Will do more than 25 transactions.
Jeremy: — divided by 1.3 million. 3.6% of the professionals that, because realize, you as a consumer if you are listening to our show, if you know someone who has a license, in your mind, and by the way, you are not ignorant, it is just you have no reason to believe that they would not be a professional.
Jeremy: But we are telling you that there is actually a 3.6% likelihood that they are really good at what they do.
Jeremy: By the way, it might even be lower than that. You might have people selling 30 homes that are not good at what they do. But let’s just assume that by the time you are selling 25 transactions, you –
Jeremy: You know what you are doing. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, their feet are wet.
Jeremy: 3.6% chance that you are hiring someone who actually, who has actually really been doing this a long time and who has, who can, they might have your best interests at heart, but Jesse, I might have your best interests at heart when you are laying on the street bleeding, but I do not have the medical ability and professional expertise to save you from dying.
Jeremy: Do we see that? And man, I know that was a gruesome one. That was a good one. Just because someone has your best interests in mind does not mean that they can serve and meet your best interest. So okay, they broke this down, and we are going to nail this thing this morning. This is so powerful, this information. There are five things that we want you to know, and I am going to warm us up this morning because we want you to be, our listeners, the smartest kids on the block. We always talk about that. Right? If you walk away from the show every week saying did not know that, did not think about that. Ring your jingle bells as I am jingling along here and maybe watch Jingle All the Way with Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know he is the world’s worst actor? But somehow it is fun to watch him.
Jesse: I enjoy watching him.
Jeremy: It is like watching a car accident. You just want to see. 1,400 real estate agents in Washington County according to Robert. Good morning, Robert. 1,400, okay?
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: Times 1,400. That means, that is about right. 50 agents, 50 of the 1,400 in Washington County are really selling at a volume level. I call that 25 or more transactions. Which is actually pretty good since the minimum standard to even be at the Larkin Group is?
Jeremy: 24 transactions. Yeah. So we cannot even have a sales person on our team that is not selling 24 homes. Just too complicated. They do not have enough information to help the client, and there you go. Good morning David and Kierstin. Love having all of you on here this morning. Number one, are you guys ready? Five things you have to know about the real estate market. Number one, we are not in a bubble. We are not in a bubble.
Jeremy: This is not the next housing bubble. Jesse, give us a definition of a housing recession.
Jesse: Two months –
Jeremy: Two quarters.
Jesse: Two quarters of downward pricing or –
Jeremy: Yeah, the economy is slowing down.
Jesse: — is slowing.
Jeremy: If I tell you that we are in a recession, you get nervous. Right?
Jeremy: That is a scary word. Right? But if I tell you hey, I was noticing, the economy slowed down the last two quarters. Do you quite get that chill down your spine?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: You should not because they are different. Recession is like a four-letter word, a really naughty one.
Jeremy: Okay? So a recession is nothing more than two straight quarters of economic slowdown. Okay. Folks, if you go to your children’s track at their school this morning, and they line you up and they say you are going to do, you are going to run as fast as you possibly can around this track. Like what do you mean? Am I going to run a mile or two miles? I need to know how long I am running so I will know how fast to run. No, Jesse, I want you to run as fast as you possibly can until you have to stop. How far would you go realistically you think? 400 meters around that track. How far do you think you could actually, far you think you could go at the fastest?
Jesse: How far at the fastest?
Jesse: Probably half way.
Jeremy: That is about it. That is probably about right for most people. You would just about keel over at 200 yards.
Jeremy: So what you are telling me is that you cannot keep running at your very fastest speed all the way around the track indefinitely?
Jeremy: Neither can the economy.
Jesse: Sixty seconds is about –
Jeremy: Yeah. And neither can your car at 100 miles per hour. It will run out of fuel. Your Tesla will run out of power. The economy cannot continue at this pace. So when we say it slowed down for two quarters, it is like thank goodness. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number two data point, market interest rates are rising. We have heard that interest rates have been rising. Okay? This is a two point. Interest rates are rising, and the reason is because the economy, Jesse, is good or bad?
Jesse: Because it is good.
Jeremy: Isn’t that an interesting way to look at that? Isn’t that a different way to look at that?
Jesse: Right, but they have needed to rise because the Fed has been actually holding them, they have been paying money to hold them down.
Jesse: To boost, or to continue to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: They have been bribing the economy.
Jesse: We cannot do that forever.
Jesse: Without some pretty severe consequences.
Jeremy: Lincoln, Darrell, Devin, that is like a triple power. If you guys all knew each other. Well, actually Devin bought Lincoln’s home. So maybe they do know each other. Small world. Good morning, guys. Think about what you just said. Right? Interest rates are going up because the economy is in good shape not because it is in bad shape.
Jesse: And because it is time. In St. George, anyway, for a year we have said wow, this has got to slow down. We cannot continue this pace.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have been watching my kid run around the track for the last several years, and he looks sick.
Jeremy: This does not look, this is not good.
Jeremy: I think he is going to have a heart attack.
Jesse: So we have been praying for this, and now it is just time.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. This is fun. Point number, we are going to come up to one about equity in just a minute.
Jeremy: So point number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay? We are not even close to a housing bubble and we are going to give you more data to prove that. So the question is are we in a bubble? Is this, okay, we are not in a bubble. Number two, interest rates are rising, but it is because, Jesse?
Jesse: They need to.
Jeremy: They need to. Okay? And by the way –
Jesse: To stabilize our economy, they need to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way, Jeremy, what do you think interest rates are going to do in 2019? I do not know, guys. Honestly, I am tired of making predictions. They keep, they raise them, and then they said they were not going to raise them.
Jesse: And then they lowered them.
Jeremy: I do not know what they are going to do. Okay? Here is what I do know. We have used this analogy so many times. If you are about to travel across 200 miles of open desert in the middle of the summer, and you see a sign that says this is the last gas station, water, and services for 200 miles, and your children are in your car, do you or do you not stop?
Jesse: You stop.
Jeremy: You stop. You are like I do not know. We will buy something. Get some gum and use the bathroom.
Jeremy: What I know is interest rates are what they are today, and historically, they are half of historic, half of what they were historically. Meaning, folks, if rates ever go back, we talked about it with Chantry Abbott from Guild Mortgage last week on the show, if rates went back to the historical average, your payment would go up $500 per month if you went to get a new mortgage. Oops. Okay. Number three, this is pretty exciting. Owning a home has always and will continue to be a much better financial position than renting. Let’s talk about the data.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Okay, this is number three. Did you hear what they said what the net worth of the typical home renter was over the age of 65?
Jesse: I did not. I did not catch that.
Jeremy: Did you miss that? Okay, I do not know if you grabbed it.
Jesse: Well, I heard it, but I do not remember.
Jeremy: The typical renter over the age of 65 in the United States of America has a net worth of $5,000. Folks, do you realize what $5,000 is? It is like when my kids, they were doing the Summit Athletic Rock, $10,000, Dad, what would you do with ten grand? And I said, kids, it would be very disappointing how far that would not go.
Jeremy: Right? Ten grand it just not a lot of money.
Jesse: It is not.
Jeremy: And if there is a listener out there that is like it is to me, it may be to you, but in the world, right, five grand is the net worth of the average renter over age of 65. Why do you think they measure people over 65, Jesse?
Jesse: Well, that is when we really need the money.
Jesse: We really, once you hit 65 –
Jeremy: How many 25 years-olds are worrying about their net worth? Thinking probably not a lot of them. The average net worth of a homeowner over 65 is? $300,000.
Jeremy: Net worth meaning your net value of all of your assets if you cashed out. And where do you think all that value is? Well –
Jesse: most of it is in the real estate.
Jeremy: Most of it is in the real estate. Okay? So number three, owning a home is a much better financial play, has always been, and will always be, always be than ever than renting a home.
Jesse: Well, it definitely gives you more control. Because if you are renting a home and it is December, and your lease is coming up in January, you have no idea what is going to happen. Most likely, your rent is going to go up. But if you have a mortgage, it does not.
Jesse: It stays the same until you do something with it or to change it.
Jesse: So you get a lot more control, and you are gaining equity.
Jesse: By most of the time, of course, the market rising or paying it down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Point number four, and point number four and five are going to look similar, but they are not. Number four is are prices falling? Home prices in St. George, Utah are not falling. Now, I had an interesting discussion this morning with my brother-in-law. He said a lot of my friends from northern Utah are looking at homes that they were checking out like six months ago and they said they dropped twenty or thirty grand. Did the value of the home drop twenty or thirty grand, or did the seller reduce the asking price that was too high to begin with by twenty or thirty grand?
Jesse: So the seller reduced the asking price, and I have got some data here that is really interesting.
Jeremy: Give it to us.
Jesse: If we look at the Washington County data for just last month. This came out, we put it out on December 2nd. The average list price is 499, but the average sold price is actually 352.
Jeremy: Average ask price was what 99?
Jesse: So those are not obviously on the same homes –
Jesse: — but that is saying that people, the market is just saying okay, sellers are just going to have to reign in their prices a little bit to get their homes sold now.
Jeremy: Correct. So I want you think about this. I had a comment. David, thank you, on Facebook. He said I am kind of worried the prices are coming down, which is a bummer. Hard time to sell. First of all, David, this is a really interesting context. He works in California. Okay? He lives in St. George. He works in California. By the way, I have got a map of all the declining markets in the United States of America. Where are 90% of them? California. Almost all of them are in California, Dallas, Texas, and a handful of other markets. Declining markets. Folks, what is happening with prices right now is that sellers have been asking too much for their home.
Jeremy: And so, we went up and we got up to the peak and then people stretched a little beyond that and said maybe I can get more. Okay? And this is number four. Every single home needs to be reduced. Every listing in the MLS needs to be reduced between 5 and 10%. Virtually everyone. I am going to say everyone. 5-10%. Virtually every home actively for sale, and that includes you For Sale By Owners, needs their price reduced by 5-10% to actually be in line with what the market will support. Okay? Prices are not necessarily falling in Washington County. People were simply asking too much.
Jesse: They are not falling at all.
Jeremy: They were simply asking too much. Okay?
Jeremy: They have not fallen at all. We have no data to support it. Now here –
Jesse: And they cannot. So if you look at the supply and demand –
Jeremy: Keep going. I am going to run out of time.
Jesse: Can you even have a declining market when you have more demand than supply?
Jeremy: Not a chance. Thank you. That is so brilliant.
Jesse: You just cannot.
Jeremy: We still have more demand than supply.
Jeremy: We cannot have a declining market. Here is the fun part okay. Number five, here is the prediction. They asked 100 economists in this report that we went over, they asked 100 economists what they thought home prices were going to do in 2019. 96 of the 100 said?
Jesse: They are going up.
Jeremy: They are going to go up. Now, I do not believe they will go up in Washington County. Okay? Because when they asked economists, do you think they asked an economist in St. George, Utah what they thought?
Jeremy: No, they did not. Okay? Of course, they did not. Because of those 100 economists, probably 75 of them were in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Okay.
Jeremy: We do not think home values are going to rise in Washington County. Okay? But here is what is happening. David made a great comment. It is hard to sell right now. Not many people buying. So this Steve Harney shared a great example. He and his wife went down to buy a Lincoln Towne Car. He is a big guy. He wants a big car. His wife says I want a Lincoln Towne Car. It has been my dream. They go down and they look at all the Lincoln Towne cars. After they look at them, she gets sticker shock. She is like oh, I am never paying that much for a car. And so just like a good husband, he is like okay, honey, whatever you say.
Jeremy: They leave the dealership, and they go out and they look all around town. What did she find after she looked all around town?
Jesse: That Lincoln was the best value.
Jeremy: That what she wanted and what she needed and everything factored in, that the Lincoln was the best value. And where did they go back to?
Jeremy: Buyers hit stocker shock. Here we go. This is such a huge point. David, this is to your point. Buyers had sticker shock in September, October, November of 2018. December is an anomaly and it is hard to even predict what is going on in December. They have sticker shock. I made multiple offers. I am in bidding wars. I offered ten grand over and someone beat me.
Jeremy: I thought I was the first guy in and there were 12 people ahead of me. They got sticker shock. Folks, on January 2nd, all the young families, millennials or otherwise, that have the baby that is still sleeping in a crib in the room that they really needed to get out of the room in September –
Jesse: That is such a good analogy.
Jeremy: — but they are ticked off because the home market is too high. Sticker shock will fade and in January what will they say?
Jesse: They will come back.
Jeremy: I love this baby, but honey, we have got to get him out of the room.
Jeremy: This is driving me crazy. And they will come back, and they are already coming back to the market. Folks, this is a great, healthy real estate market. Have a merry stinking Christmas out there, would you? Jeremy Larkin thanking you saying we know this town. Ask us anything. Write in this thread after this on Facebook.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive here on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU, with the voice of St. George Real Estate, Jeremy Larkin. Again, for more information, give them a call at 275-1690. You will find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.
Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy: Good morning. How are we doing, folks? I am here. I am alive. I have got a dead laptop. I am not sure why it is dead. But guess what? Does that ever happen?
Mike: All the time.
Jeremy: So batteries actually die on these things –
Chantry: Only when you need it though. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah, I know. It is okay. We will plug it in and we will be good to go. I have got Chantry Abbot this morning with Guild Mortgage. Chantry, good morning.
Chantry: Good morning.
Jeremy: Give me something good. What is the greatest thing that is happening in your life right now?
Chantry: Oh man, the greatest thing that is happening in my life. I just went to, my son’s doing, he is four –
Jeremy: Got it.
Chantry: — and so yesterday, I snuck out of work a little early and well, at about lunch time. Snuck out for a little break, and he is in a gymnastics class.
Jeremy: Oh man.
Chantry: And he totally digs it. Somersaults and all that.
Jeremy: I have got a 17-year-old who always referred to her gymnastics when she was that age as nastics.
Jeremy: Something like that. It is pretty fun.
Chantry: I have been telling him that the Ninja Turtles do gymnastics, so he is really into the Ninja Turtles.
Mike: He is sold.
Chantry: Yeah, he is in that really learn his stuff.
Jeremy: That is amazing. I love this. Well, so that is your great thing this morning. Isn’t that great? You know what? Let me tell you what is going on great in my life, by the way, folks, is I hauled two kids off to school this morning, and I think they were both just about late. We are talking about scratching the, oooo, the very edge. One went over to Tonaquint Intermediate and another to Dixie Middle, and once upon a time they were four. They were four years old. And there you have it. We got up. So but those guys, these two dudes and I actually, all four of the kids, we went up to Bryant Head this last weekend –
Chantry: I was actually going to say they are probably bummed they were not going skiing today.
Jeremy: Yeah, they probably were. They probably were. Bryant Head missed the snow on this storm, but we were there this last weekend, and if anybody out there is thinking about getting up to the mountain, it is actually looking really, really good for this time of year. I am shocked. Salt Lake had 14 inches or something overnight. I saw that. But it is pretty good for December, I do not know what the day was, tenth.
Chantry: When do Washington County Schools get out for the Christmas Break?
Jeremy: So the kids will get out the Friday before Christmas which seems like it is the 21st or second.
Chantry: So that would be a week from tomorrow?
Jeremy: Yeah, the 21st. So a week from tomorrow. These kids are seven days left, and then they will have ten days off. Look, it is the most wonderful time of the year. The fun thing with Christmas break is that you are actually excited. For all you parents out there, I think you know what I am talking about. It is actually exciting. It is fun to have the kids home, and a lot of parents are off of work at least part of that time. A little easier than summer. Summer you are thinking, we have got a whole two months of this stuff, don’t we? Now what am I supposed to do with these kids?
Jeremy: And if you are working mom or a working dad –
Chantry: Yeah, how do I deal with that?
Jeremy: That gets really busy. Really, really busy. Here we are. We are all on our own plane with our kids and Mike has got his kids grown. Mine are kind of in between and you have little, a little child. And that is where we are at. So Chantry and I are going to be talking about, this is exciting, okay. It is funny that bad news is often exciting. It is just so bizarre what is happening in some of these real estate markets. Right?
Chantry: Right. It is going to come as a surprise to most probably. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah, absolutely. So we are going to talk a little bit about what is going on in Dallas, Texas. Frisco, Texas. By the way, Frisco, Texas, outside of St. George, fastest growing community in the United States of America. And just crazy. There is a Toyota plant there and jobs. We are going to talk about what is happening with the real estate market. And the teaser for our listeners out there: builders making hundred thousand and bigger dollar price reductions on their listings, offering real estate agents trips and travel all over the planet to sell their homes. Some strange stuff going on out there.
Chantry: Yeah, the trip to Mexico caught my eye.
Jeremy: Oh, is that what got you excited? Did you want to move out there?
Chantry: No, I will just take a trip there. That is all.
Jeremy: Actually I was just saying to Texas so you can start –
Chantry: I could sell some houses out there.
Jeremy: So we are going to talk about what is going on with the real estate market and really the US housing boom coming to an end and what that means, and whether you should be alarmed, and whether St. George is next. November was a very strange month for everyone in the real estate market, both in sales, real estate sales and in lending, that is what Chantry does. He is with a company, Guild Mortgage, and they have worked with us for so long, at least coming up on a decade and do such amazing work. Of course, what they do is help people find the money they need to purchase a home. And they have worked with, I do not know, certainly dozens and probably more like hundreds of our clients over the years. Right?
Chantry: Yeah, hundreds. Yeah.
Jeremy: Hundreds of clients.
Jeremy: And you have been doing mortgage lending, I like to tell people home lending in a way because sometimes people out there in the public are like well, I do not. Do you know what I mean?
Jeremy: But mortgages or loans for people purchasing homes for how many years?
Chantry: It will be 13 when the calendar turns.
Chantry: Crazy. It was 2006.
Jeremy: This is wild. So let’s do some history. So thirteen, 2006, 2008 is when they really say the bubble burst.
Jeremy: So we are decade. We are having a ten-year anniversary, and we talked a little bit about this on our show last week. So you read these articles –
Chantry: That I did.
Jeremy: — that I am talking about? Should I give folks the highlights? Let me give you the headline for this article. It is Bloomberg, and we will post this into the Facebook comments. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, you can catch us at Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. The way it sounds, J-E-R-E-M-Y, Larkin, L-A-R-K-I-N. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. We are streaming it live. We stream it live every week and then we post this over to the Larkin Group Facebook page. Of course, if you are listening to us on the radio, you are either on 890AM or 94.9FM. So our Facebook listeners, if you want to get on the radio, you can hop to 94.9FM, 890AM.
Chantry: If anybody wants to, I have got my phone. I am going to see if there are any comments. I just barely thought of it.
Jeremy: Oh beautiful, beautiful.
Chantry: So if anybody wants to comment on Facebook, we will answer the question.
Jeremy: Yeah, I love this. Yeah, if you guys have questions, specific questions for Chantry who is doing lending, specific questions for me. So let me give you the headline: Free vacations, $100,000 discounts, home builders get desperate with hot markets cooling and mortgage rising the industry turns to incentives to boost sales. And of course, Bloomberg paints this in such a dramatic fashion, do they not? A real estate broker in suburban Dallas is raking in freebies this year. Trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming. The home buyers he represents are cashing in, too. They are winning price cuts of more than $100,000 on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds. This feels a lot like, when you hear this, some stuff we saw here a long time ago.
Chantry: Sure, yeah.
Jeremy: Doesn’t it? It goes on to say the generosity flows from an increasingly desperate home builder market. Hot markets are cooling as fast as interest rises, and this is where they really throw the drama on here. Some flare. In the great housing slowdown of ’18, it is like they have added, they have created their own term, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach of many families. Everyone is hungry for buyers, he says. What do you think, man? When you see that, what are your thoughts?
Chantry: So sure, has the market shifted a little bit? Absolutely. Is that an extreme version of it? Yeah, of course it is.
Jeremy: For sure.
Chantry: But anybody that follows the housing market, it is kind of interesting. It has been very similar to the stock market. So those of you that follow the stock market have noticed some things have changed over the last couple of months, quite significantly. And we have noticed that in the real estate market. But it had to. It was out of control. This summer, all of us were looking at each other going there are no homes for sale.
Jeremy: It was weird. It was ridiculous.
Chantry: Buyers have no, buyers have no control. And it was not just prices that were that were crazy. It was terms. It was like they could not ask for anything. They had to close really fast.
Chantry: They had to make offers sight unseen. Just weird stuff that just is not really good for a buyer.
Jeremy: No, it is not good for a buyer at all. And one of the challenges we have in real estate is anytime that the market turns to where one group has the serious upper hand, either a seller’s market or a buyer’s market, it is going to create weird dynamics.
Chantry: Not good. Yeah.
Jeremy: And this is not good either. What we are hearing about in Texas. Definitely, when Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal and, and, and start running articles saying that the housing market is coming to a massive halt in Dallas, it scares people.
Chantry: Yeah. Especially what happened ten years ago. We all think oh, can that happen again.
Jeremy: Excuse me, yeah, there is just no question. And we do sit here wondering what will happen? Like coming up here, it is interesting. It says, let’s talk about some things that are issues that slow the housing market down, and we will answer the question whether St. George is next. Rising interest rates –
Jeremy: — and we are going to ask you specifically about that. Trump did a tax overhaul that caps the, places caps on tax deductions for mortgage interest. That is an issue. Right?
Jeremy: They are hurting really like high tax areas. New York, massive high taxes that really hurts those people. 4,000 new condo units listed for sale, will be listed for sale in 2019 in Manhattan they said.
Jeremy: In Manhattan.
Jeremy: Not in New York City. Right?
Jeremy: 4,000 new condo units. You have got, okay, they talked about Austin and San Jose, California. Austin, Texas. San Jose, California. They have put, like immigration restrictions have kind of slowed down high-skilled workers coming into those markets. Some of these places are now less appealing to your Chinese buyers and your foreigners. We do not see as much of that here.
Jeremy: How often have you ever seen a foreign buyer try to get a mortgage?
Chantry: It is really rare. Occasionally we will get the Canadians because they love the warm weather here.
Chantry: Really honestly, some of them, it is the first warm place south.
Chantry: So if you are heading south –
Jeremy: It is.
Chantry: — on I-15, boom, first warm place, really nice, great spot.
Jeremy: That is a great point.
Chantry: So we get a little bit of that. But it does not drive our market by any means.
Jeremy: No, not at all.
Chantry: But to your point, with the rising interest rates and home prices as we know just continued to go up and up and up, it is all about affordability.
Jeremy: It is.
Chantry: It really ends up being to a point where if prices get too high, rates go up, it is just not affordable anymore. So there has to be some sort of a shift back to normal.
Jeremy: There absolutely does. So what you are saying is, from your perspective, this housing, the great housing slow down of 2018 is not a problem.
Chantry: Yeah, let’s understand one big difference.
Jeremy: Yeah, let’s do.
Chantry: In 2006, do you remember the loan that they called the Stated Income/Stated Asset?
Jeremy: Oh, for sure, I do.
Chantry: Okay, so what this was was you are sitting across the desk from a mortgage guy and they say well, you need to make $10,000 a month, Mr. Schoolteacher. You make $10,000 –
Jeremy: So what would he do?
Chantry: — a month, correct? Wink, wink. And then all of a sudden, the deal is closed. You did not have to document anything. It was insane. There was no common sense, greed, crazy, stupid, whatever you want to call it. Loans were getting done to people that just should never have gotten the loans. Period. End of story. And so, it made everything go out of control, and these people were doing it knowing that they could not afford the house payment. They just thought –
Chantry: They just thought if I do this, I can hang on for a year and then I will sell it and make all this money because my neighbor did that.
Jeremy: right. Right.
Chantry: And so let’s do that. I know I cannot afford a $2500 house payment. My neighbor just did it, and we can sell it in a year, and we can do it for a year. Pull it out of our retirement. That is what was going on. See people were getting these loans they could never afford. Ever.
Jeremy: Not a chance.
Chantry: They never even thought –
Jeremy: Not a chance.
Chantry: The people did not think they could afford them. So now the total difference is loans are tough. Loans are, it is hard to get a loan. People that get a loan, by the end of it, they are tired of all these rules and giving us pay stub after pay stub and bank statement after bank statement and all this stuff we have to dig into, and absolutely the whole point of it is to make sure the mortgage industry feels like this person can actually afford this house payment.
Jeremy: Well, right. You need to make $10,000. You know it is funny you ask that because I happen to be making $10,000.
Chantry: Oh, that is weird timing, right?
Jeremy: Actually, it is 12,000. Well it is funny you would say that because I just got a text from my boss. My income was raised.
Chantry: Yeah, exactly. Right.
Jeremy: It is like this is incredible. Right? It is amazing how everybody seemed to have the qualifications during that time to do this. Right?
Chantry: You did not have to get anything. It was just whatever you said, get a loan.
Jeremy: Well, okay, so the big difference now, that Chantry is saying, we have got Chantry Abbott here with Guild Mortgage here in St. George, we are talking about the great housing slow down. I love this term. I think I am going to run with it. That Bloomberg News has put out of 2018 and we shared, if you just picked up the show, the fact that, and good morning to everybody on Facebook, and good morning to all of our listeners. Thank you so much for your support. Talking about the fact that in some of these housing markets it is slowing down. So we saw massive, they are giving away vacations and crazy incentives and free media rooms and free upgrades and free cabinetry. And they are giving away, they are reducing prices a hundred to two thousand dollars on these expensive homes by the way. Just to be clear, Chantry, I think people need to understand this. They are reducing the price of seven to hundred million dollar homes by a hundred thousand dollars.
Chantry: Right, yeah. It sounds really –
Jeremy: These are not $300,000 homes.
Chantry: A $3,000,000 house had $100,000 reduction.
Jeremy: Yeah, so let’s be clear. However, what Chantry is saying here is that the difference between ten years ago as the housing market kind of catches up to itself, is that people are actually qualifying for the loans, aren’t they?
Chantry: I have not done a loan since 2008 that was not like extreme documentation of being able to make the payment. It has happened. People still have stuff happen in their life, and they are going to have short sales or foreclosures or fire sales. I have to get rid of the house. For the most part, these people are affording their payment barring a catastrophe, and that was not the case then. So that is where, sure, are we going to have a slowdown? Yeah, we needed it. We needed it.
Chantry: It was a bummer for homebuyers. There was not anything for sale. It was a little bit out of control, and I do not even necessarily mean prices were out of control. I just mean there were not enough, you sit down with a buyer and you go here are the two homes that are available. Which one do you want to buy? The seller has all the control in that situation, and that is just not good.
Jeremy: It is not good at all. And the sellers are like this is great. So, let’s put this in perspective for our local people. I have a comment. I have an observation and a question. Let’s start with the question. The prevailing 30-year interest rate today if I went to get a mortgage is what?
Chantry: About four and three-quarters.
Jeremy: Okay, so it is four and three-quarters percent to get a home mortgage today, typically. Assuming fair credit and all that stuff, good credit. Okay.
Chantry: Somewhere in there 5% —
Jeremy: Good credit, by the way, we are not talking 800. Just thinking if you have got 700 –
Chantry: Four and three-quarters, 5%, whatever.
Jeremy: Okay. Yep. What is the average interest rate that people have paid since they started tracking interest rates to borrow money for a home?
Chantry: Great question. So the mortgage industry as we know it, Fannie Mae and FHA, and it has been around since the 1950s we will say.
Chantry: It is a little over 8% is the average rate over that timeframe to current. And that is taking in current day when they have been crazy low, which is throwing the average off, right?
Jeremy: This is crazy.
Chantry: So the government made interest rates lower than they should have. Even counting that, the average is still over 8%.
Jeremy: This is, okay, this is going to be fun. Typical person comes in your office today and wants to buy a $300,000 home, which is the average home in St. George right now.
Jeremy: It is actually 330, 340, but I am going to say 300, okay, because I think the average is skewed because of higher –
Jeremy: Really is 300.
Chantry: Take out the extremes.
Jeremy: Yeah, the stuff that people are really affording. If they buy a $300,000 home, your typical client, just no specifics, what is their payment? Like the typical payment? What is the most average payment you send out of your office?
Jeremy: Okay, so let’s call it $1650 a month. So the average mortgage payment that someone is coming out of Chantry Abbott’s office, Guild Mortgage, when they go in there and they hire them to help them get a loan, it is $1650. Chant, just for fun, and I am putting you on the spot, if interest rates went from 4 ¾ to 8%. Today we are 4 ¾. Eight is the historical average. If they went up by 3 ¼ points, what would that payment 1650 be? Just as a guess.
Chantry: I will do the math, but I am going to say about $400 a month higher, probably over two grand. At least probably.
Jeremy: So we are four –
Chantry: I am going to do the math.
Jeremy: He is going to do the math. He is going to do some math. So let me put this in perspective as he playing around here. He is actually just making his move on whatever, what is the game that everybody plays? It is almost like Scrabble that they are playing with their friends.
Chantry: Oh yeah. Words –
Jeremy: Words with Friends. He just needs to make a move on Words with Friends and he will be back on. If interest rates right now, because we are going to tie this in, because we started the show by saying that the housing market is falling apart in Texas. I do not know if it is falling apart, but wow, it has kind of shut off overnight. If you read the article I linked in on Facebook to Bloomberg, you will be fascinated at the way it reads. If rate were today at the historical average interest rates for you to buy a home, your payment would go up by an average of $400 for the typical homebuyer. From 4 ¾% what is the number?
Chantry: It is about 500 actually.
Jeremy: Five hundred. Okay. This is even better. Thank you for adding some excitement.
Chantry: So about a 3% difference on that scenario is almost $500 a month.
Jeremy: So it is very simple where we are going with this. So the question is what are rates? 4 ¾%. The simple point is that this is absolutely a time that is still a great time to be buying a home. Now, here is the observation I wanted to make. We are seeing the For Sale By Owner sign go up everywhere in Washington County –
Jeremy: — in the last 30 days.
Chatnry: It is easy. Let’s just sell it on our own. Right.
Jeremy: Have we noticed historically, gang, that consumers are always six months behind every trend?
Chantry: Yeah, yeah.
Jeremy: We are always six months behind.
Jeremy: Now here is the reality –
Chantry: We all know that guy. Oh, my buddy made a bunch of money in the stock market. I am going to hurry and jump in. It is like you missed it.
Jeremy: Yeah, you missed it. Right? So what is going to happen with most of these people selling their home by owner, and I have to be very honest about this, we are needing to reduce the price of most MLS listings right now to get to them in line with what the market is really supporting, and we have talked about this for a month because sellers have been asking more than the market would support. Values are not really going down.
Jeremy: Right? In St. George. People have simply been asking more than the market will support.
Chantry: Well, what people do and I think this is where you are getting is their house is realistically worth 300, but they think, you know what, I have heard it is crazy.
Jeremy: I will do it at 325.
Chantry: There is nothing out there. Maybe we put our house up for sale for 330 and see if we get it. And if we get it, really cool, let’s sell it.
Jeremy: You know what? Let’s just go 600 and see what we get. Okay, but they are not going that crazy.
Chantry: Let’s just put it up for sale at 330, 350, and we get that. Cool, we will sell.
Chantry: And that is not what is going to happen now.
Jeremy: Right. So the For Sale by Owner, where every professionally marketed agent listed is being reduced, most of the For Sale By Owners are not going to have success right now, and it is going to be hard, and that is going to be frustrating.
Chantry: Every time I do a mortgage and there is a For Sale By Owner, the buyer thinks he is going to get a deal. There is no real estate commission, so I am going to offer him super low.
Jeremy: The buyer wants the deal. So folks, if you want to reach out to Chantry Abbott at Guild Mortgage, 674-1090?
Jeremy: Best number, 674-1090, and Mike will give you our contact information. Have an amazing week. Get your Christmas shopping done and check out the article we linked on Facebook about free vacations for realtors in Texas. No free vacations here that I have seen.
Chantry: There is one for Mexico, I think. I do not know when that was.
Jeremy: Okay. All right, man.
Jeremy: There is a dude ranch vacation.
Mike: Dude. All right. You have been listening to St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. For information, call 275-1690 or find them online, Sold in St. George dot com.
Zillow.com and 10-Year Anniversary of Housing Bust! (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Radio Show)
Jeremy: … good day to everybody. It is kind of nice out there. What do you think about the little bit of rain, Mike?
Mike: I am loving it. It is all right by me.
Jeremy: You are not offended?
Mike: No, not at all.
Jeremy: Do you remember 2013? Do you remember about this week in 2013?
Mike: It got a little white around here, didn’t it?
Jeremy: It did, didn’t it?
Mike: Yes, it did.
Jeremy: Can you believe that?Read more…
The SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE About The Real Estate Market (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Radio Show)
Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:36 of the news time morning news, and welcome. Glad to have you with us. Thursday morning. And of course, that means it is time one again for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, girls, boys, real estate fans. I can definitely declare that I am going to be stopping at Daylight Donuts on my way by this morning. I just had that inspiration coming up Bluff Street.
Jesse: Then you have got to do it then.
Jeremy: I know. I realize it may not be the best choice. We will see. Let’s see how I feel in 24 minutes. We will see how I feel then. It is a wonderful day. I have got Jesse Poll, Jesse Poll in studio with me.
Jesse: You can call me whatever you want.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have got JC, my good friend, here. Good morning to all of our lovely listeners and Facebook friends and fans and people. It is going to be a great day, and part of the reason we know that is if you look outside you can actually see, hair in my eye here, sorry. You can actually see downtown. I can see all the way. You can see a big old shower coming down the way and some sun rays coming through them.
Jesse: It is nice.
Jeremy: It is incredible. The famed, famed Larkin Group Fall and Dixie photo that has just been going around for forever and ever and ever, we actually have a client. Remember Quuntin and Mori Jensen? Did you, you did not know them.
Jesse: I did not know them.
Jeremy: So they are moving back from Virginia and how I noticed that on Facebook the other day is that they had posted this photo, and if our listeners do not know what this photo is I guess I can throw this into the feed this morning. But it is a picture we had taken in 2009 by Danny Lee. Danny is a really great professional photographer here in town and did just a ton of work for us for a lot of years. Larry Gardner, a little back story. So this is going to be fun this morning, excuse me, but I am. So Larry is a friend. I grew up in the neighborhood that he was one of the dads. Right? So his kids are my friends.
Jeremy: And then he was my boss. One of my bosses. He is a City councilman and a really well-known guy, and so he took a photo of this shot. And the shot is you drive up Airport Hill. Okay? What they call it. Right? Just to the top, almost to the old airport, which is now where the Cliffside Restaurant is, and he took this photo. And it was probably 2004 of downtown and it was just in this epic color, and it was right after a rainstorm and everything was clear, and the color was really vibrant. Well, it was not a professional photo. It was a good photo, and years later, it was November. It was good, and we used it in our marketing, but it had some power lines running through it.
Jeremy: And then years later on a November day, I called Danny and I said what are you doing? Well, I am in St. George. I just shot a home, photographed a home. Well, could you go up to Airport Hill in like 10 minutes? He said yeah. He went up to the hill and 15 minutes later we had this photo, and it has been featured on more Facebook pages and yard sale pages. When I saw the Jensens, now segueing back, I knew they were moving back from Virginia because what photo did they post to say guess what everyone, we are moving back to St. George.
Jesse: I am going to tell on myself for a second here. I do not even know if you know this, but did you know that I stole that idea before we met? For my sign.
Jesse: I went up to my friend’s house –
Jeremy: I remember. I remember.
Jesse: But it was my photo.
Jeremy: We disapproved. We saw.
Jesse: I did not even know it was you.
Jeremy: Oh, it was us.
Jesse: I saw this sign and I am like wow, that is gorgeous. How could I get one like that? So I went up to my friend’s house with my phone and took it.
Jeremy: Oh, I remember. I remember, Jesse. We knew you before you knew us.
Jesse: And do you know where those signs are now?
Jeremy: In the garbage?
Jesse: No, my sister-in-law painted them. We have this, the next time you come to my house you will see it. It says the cottage. This beautiful sign.
Jeremy: I did not know this.
Jesse: I have not hung it yet because we were still working on it.
Jeremy: Oh, that is classic.
Jesse: But she painted them all. For each, she did one for everybody’s house.
Jeremy: I am glad you came to work for us instead of –
Jeremy: — instead of competing.
Jesse: Right. Competing with the sign. Mine still was not as pretty though because it was reflective, and it is in the details. Right?
Jeremy: The devil is in the details. Hope we have got some friends watching. Comment and say hello if you are watching this morning and let us know that you are out, and you are listening. So I want to share with you guys something that is going on. That is the background. And we will share that. We will actually throw that photo on the Larkin Group Facebook page this morning.
Jesse: It is a nice photo. It is so nice people try to steal it.
Jeremy: Yeah, it has been on postcards. There are some jerks around town that thought they could take our photo. That is the situation, guys. It could be worse. By the way, if you are lamenting that it is cool or not, it is just not early Fall anymore, you could have snow. And it is snowing all over the place.
Jesse: And they do have snow in Cedar City. My wife called me last night on her way back from work and said it is snowing.
Jeremy: Woo, buddy. We do not want that. We do not want that. Today, we are going to share with you, just so you know, as we get the show rolling, we are going to share with you what I believe is really the most important, single most important message that you can receive in real estate. And when I say most important message, I mean in any market. And when I say any market, Jesse, what I mean is any city. Okay?
Jeremy: And in any market condition. Right? Whether the market is going, generally the public understands real estate as the market is either going up or it is going down.
Jeremy: That is kind of how that works. Well, is the market going up or is the market going down? We are going to share with you the single most important message that you could possibly have in real estate. There is nothing more important to you as a buyer or a seller than this message that we are going to share today. Okay? Which is something more than Happy Holidays. Is that fair enough for you?
Jesse: Oh, happy days.
Jeremy: This truly is something that is important. So I wanted to share something that is kind of fascinating.
Jesse: That was for Jessica Marron, by the way. Her and I –
Jeremy: Good morning, Jessica.
Jesse: You never know when either of us is going to start singing —
Jesse: — or dancing.
Jeremy: That is exactly right.
Jesse: She is my kindred spirit.
Jeremy: I think she is a lot of people’s kindred spirit. Good morning to her. Gang, if you are a skier or a snowboarder, Bryant Head Resort, I was just mentioning when the live feed started, and we were just kind of in here getting mic’ed up, Bryant Head is getting some snow. Finally, getting some snow. They opened last weekend. I never miss opening day ever.
Jesse: And you did.
Jeremy: Two weekends ago. I absolutely missed opening day. They opened actually the weekend before Thanksgiving, and then I missed the weekend after. It is looking like I will miss this weekend as well. So this is pretty rarified stuff for me, but it is what it is. If you go to Bryant Head dot com, it is fun. They have three live webcams and I watching it right now in studio, panning left and right, and it is dark, and it is overcast still a little bit up there. Lights are on. It is really cool because the storm has set in up there. So check that out. Skiers and snowboarders, we are really only an hour, it is an hour and a half if it were a snowy day and you were taking it easy. I do not tend to take it very easy when I travel to Bryant Head. I am usually in a hurry. I call it 75 minutes for sure coming back and usually about 80 going up. So Bryant Head dot com. I hope that everyone has got their skis shined up, grab a stick of Juicy Fruit. Remember those ads? I do. I remember those ads very, very —
Jesse: Juice Fruit.
Jeremy: — yep, very distinctly, and these people were skiing over in Colorado. That was a good time. All right, let’s talk about real estate, shall we?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: Jesse, I had this crazy, last night I was playing around, and I am absolutely not going to mention the homeowner’s name. But I saw a property that was in Stonecliff that was on the market. And when I looked at the property, this is kind of interesting. So, this home has been listed one, two, three –
Jesse: Two, three, four, five, six —
Jeremy: — four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve times.
Jeremy: So there is a property that has been on the market twelve times, and that is with a variety of real estate agents, starting in 2008, it is now 2018. So for a decade, literally for a decade, and if I count up the days, two, three, four, the home has legitimately been on the market probably 1500 days over the last decade in Stonecliff. For our listeners out there, if you have not sold a home, this is so mind-boggling if you are the homeowner. Right? Because you start to say what is possible, and I see the price started at one point, I am just going to say six. The price started at $1.6 million, and it has come down a third of that, and down below that, and then it has come back up. Here is the challenge. When we have a market that has appreciated for the last six years but your price has come down a third over the last ten years, this does not make sense. Right? So all of the home values in Washington County have gone up an average, an average of about $125,000, 130 since April 2013. Or just 2013. Maybe it was April. Home values are up $125,000, 130 maybe in Washington County since 2013. That is the average home. Home values as a percentage are up 25-30%, maybe even more, maybe even 35% in certain neighborhoods. But here is a home that a really good human being has tried to sell. A homeowner, and they have actually reduced their price by 30% over the same time period. Jesse, what does that mean? Because that does not make sense with the market. It means something very simple for us.
Jesse: Well, it just means that they are not, they are trying to get what they want instead of what the market will bring.
Jesse: Because even, I am going to go somewhere you are not even expecting. But even in those price ranges –
Jeremy: Oh, I do not know. You are pretty unexpected.
Jesse: — even over a million dollars, the homes that are selling are selling within, at the highest, 154 days, oh no, 207 days –
Jesse: — is the highest days on market. So they are still selling when they sell.
Jeremy: It is just taking longer.
Jesse: It takes a little bit longer. Not significantly. Not 1500.
Jeremy: Yeah, so 1500 days, as we get into this and we are going to share this message. What we believe is the single most important message about any real estate market for buyers and sellers and would-be buyers and sellers. But I think this is a great segue for us. You have someone, as Jesse said, has been trying to ask significantly more than the market will bear.
Jeremy: So here is what is going on in the real estate market today before we set this up. Well, let’s just share it. You guys ready? Three, two, one. Real estate markets in every city in the United States of America and probably on the planet are cyclical, and this is the single most important message that you can possibly understand about real estate. It is not is it a good time to buy. It is not is it a good time to sell. Should I rent or buy? Right? Should I purchase an investment property? The single most important message is that real estate markets are cyclical, which means what?
Jesse: That what goes up must come down.
Jesse: And what goes down must come up or will come up.
Jesse: It is an equilibrium, and in any equilibrium, it has to go up and down to equalize.
Jeremy: I have a very close friend who two days ago, 48 hours ago, we are not even at 48 right now. I think we are at 35 hours ago. He was like I guess things are just not going to work out in my life, and two hours later, everything changed. In a very positive way, and the way I described it is the clouds parted and the sun broke through. Go figure, and I said this morning, do you realize that was two days ago? Two days ago, you were everything is going to pieces.
Jesse: That is why we need to keep reminding ourselves that this will pass. This too shall pass.
Jeremy: Which makes it sounds like we are talking about a bad real estate market. We are not at all. This is an amazing real estate market, but we are going to help you understand what is going on in the real estate market. So if we go back ten years, it was 2008. Literally, people thought, people meaning just generally everyone, it seemed like the clouds could never part, and that the real estate market would forever be in freefall and gang, understand that almost all of the major developers in the western United States lost everything.
Jeremy: This was not like –
Jesse: I was just talking to a roofer last night. Actually, Stout Roofing is going to do my roof, and we were talking about the crash. What they went through and what they have pulled through, it is just amazing. We are talking about $600,000 of accounts receivable that they could not collect on.
Jeremy: Are you serious?
Jesse: And they pulled through that. It gave me goosebumps for a guy to stand in front of me that came through that and now they are getting ready to do my roof and they are going strong.
Jeremy: Isn’t that amazing?
Jesse: Yeah, it was really cool because how many did not come back.
Jeremy: Right. The amazing part is we have projects in Washington County that were 30 to 40 to $50 million value projects that just went belly up. They went upside down. Anyone who can remember ten years ago, if you went up to the Ledges, so the Ledges actually came, well it was a little later. The Ledges came out of the ground. It was 2007, Parade of Homes 2007 is when the Ledges came online. This is fun. The average person does not know this because why would you know this? You do not do this for a living. But it is 2007, and they have opened at the Parade of Homes, and they had this big, incredible Spanish-style property that many folks do know of. It was the first big home in the Ledges. It has a lazy river and an island green in the backyard where you can chip balls onto the green. It overlooks Snow Canyon, and that thing came on the market. It was $5 million, by the way. They had all these tents set up, and the sky was the limit, and they sold all the lots up there to a variety of builders. They came in and these guys thought they could do no wrong, and gals, to be fair. By 2010, you would drive down past the clubhouse, and there was a row of unfinished homes right there. Probably a dozen homes, framed, some of them had, what do you want to call it? Paper, what do we call it the paper? My brain is fried for a minute. On the outside, getting ready to stucco and they sat for years.
Jesse: The vapor barriers.
Jeremy: The vapor barrier. Years, and years and years. My uncle came into town from Southern California. He is a developer and he said oh my gosh. This is bad. That was, guys, that was eight years ago. That part. So now go to the Ledges. Now look around St. George. I am looking behind me at the Bluff Street redevelopment project. So what we need to understand is that every real estate market is cyclical. And so, Jesse, what are we starting to see in the market. We are having a lot of real estate agents reach out to us and say what is happening with their listing that they are trying to sell for a client.
Jesse: Well, what is happening is there are a couple of things. We are seeing a lot of pressure like sellers are having to reduce their prices finally.
Jeremy: There you go.
Jesse: Buyers are stopping. They are like no, we are not going to do this anymore.
Jesse: You are having to have a strategy to actually sell a home. What are we going to do? How are we going to be the best value?
Jeremy: So very specifically, sellers are having to reduce their price.
Jesse: They are.
Jeremy: Does that mean the home values are going down?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: Not necessarily.
Jesse: They do not go down like that. It is kind of like a train does not stop in 100 feet. It takes a minute.
Jeremy: It takes a while.
Jesse: But there is starting to be some pressure.
Jeremy: There is.
Jesse: And it is visible pressure like homes that 30 days ago or 60 days ago would have sold in two days are taking maybe three or four weeks.
Jeremy: This is absolutely right. We are seeing a ton of pressure in the $4-500,000 range, and what starts to happen is because real estate markets are cyclical, and the reason this is the most important message is that people will start to panic and the market is so driven by the emotional conditions that people live in that what will happen is you will have a whole bunch of buyers who are frustrated and they are fed up, sick and tired of writing offers on homes and competing with five people. So they start saying well, maybe I will not write anymore offers. They are fed up with paying 10% more than the last person paid in the neighborhood. So they say well, maybe we will not pay 10% more than the last person. They are frustrated because interest rates are amazing at five-and-a-quarter percent, but they remember when they were four-and-a-quarter percent. So they say maybe I just will not borrow money, and I will not buy a home. And what starts to happen is very subtly, slowly, then suddenly, the entire market can change. And it is changing.
Jesse: What is interesting is that, Guild Mortgage put out an interest rates over the last, I do not know, 40 years, yesterday, it is a picture. But for the last, gosh, 15 years, interest rates have just kept going down. And we lose track of our memory. Right? We do not think well, this is cyclical. And we do not stop long enough and –
Jeremy: Excuse me, what were you saying?
Jesse: It is cyclical.
Jeremy: You said we lose track of our memory. I was going to see if you were paying attention. Okay.
Jesse: But we do not realize that what goes down is going to come back up. And what is that going to do to us if we do not act now or if we do act now.
Jeremy: We do forget, and here is what we start to do. We make decisions on buying and selling a home that are based on well, rates went up, maybe I should not buy. Here is the issue gang. Historically, rates were significantly higher than this. I remember when I was at 7% on a townhome, and I thought it was the greatest thing ever.
Jeremy: When it went to 5.8, 6%, I really thought that my wildest dreams had come true. And then they went to 3%. Well now they are back to five-and-a-quarter percent, and they will go higher. So there will be people who will look back at this market and go oh my gosh –
Jesse: I wish I would have.
Jeremy: — I cannot believe I did not buy a home. Okay? We are going to have sellers –
Jesse: Or make that move.
Jeremy: Correct. Right? We are going to have sellers who are going to find out that people are reducing prices in their neighborhood, which is going to imply to them and cause this idea that maybe values are going down. Maybe this is not a good time to sell.
Jeremy: Historically, ladies and gentlemen, do you realize that values are literally back where they were at the ’06 peak. We are actually back there. We are right back where we were. Let me share something with you. Southern Utah Title produces a really great report that we were looking at this morning, Jess, right?
Jeremy: And by the way, you can visit SUTC, S as in Sam not F as in Frank. S as in Sam. SUTC dot com, Southern Utah Title Company. Thank you, Mitch, for your help this morning. Southern Utah Title Company, they produce this incredible report called the Good News Report. Let me share something with folks. In 2009, there were 474 building permits pulled.
Jeremy: In 2009, 474 building permits. Do we know how many building permits were pulled so far this year, Jesse?
Jeremy: Projected at how many more?
Jeremy: So we are projected to have 2400 building permits pulled. That is five times as many building permits as were pulled in 2009. Okay? And it looked like this. 2005, four years prior, now brace yourselves, folks, and we have talked about this in the show, but I would not expect someone to remember this. 3500.
Jeremy: We went from 3,500 building permits pulled in 2005. The low was 474. Nine times, a nine-time crash. Nine times fewer.
Jeremy: Right? We went from 3,500 building permits in Washington County to 474. Last year, we pulled 1800, and this year we are at 1800 and the year is not out.
Jesse: And end at 2400.
Jeremy: Let me be really clear. This is September. But we are headed to 2400 permits. Is real estate cyclical? Real estate is cyclical. Is the market crashing because people need to reduce the price? No what it means is, and what we have talked about on the show is pretty much everyone is asking probably 5-10% more than what the market is really going to bare.
Jeremy: (Indiscernible) the sellers.
Jesse: The pricing conversation is a lot different when you are in a really strong sellers’ market than when you are in a buyers’ market or just a balanced market.
Jesse: And really, we are just going back towards a balanced market.
Jeremy: Yeah, correct. This is so true. We are headed back to a healthy, balanced market.
Jesse: Because there is a day when three months was normal to sell a house.
Jesse: Sixty, ninety days. That is normal. This sell your house in a week is not normal or sustainable.
Jeremy: It is not. Right? We have used this so many times, but it is like when In-and-Out Burger opened over there by Best Buy, it has been a long time now. There was a line around the building for four days.
Jesse: That is crazy.
Jeremy: Well, it is an unsustainable pace. No restaurant has a line around the building for 365 days a year and it lasted about four days and it was done. And there is a nice line out there now on a busy lunch, but they push them through.
Jeremy: Here is another thought. Okay? That was building permits. How about total sales? In 2009, 3,900 properties sold in Washington County. 3,900 properties. We are projected this year to have almost 10,000 properties sell in Washington County. Now this is all sales, and so when we say all sales, and again you can visit S as in Sam, UTC dot com and look at the Good News Report. All sales means building lots, homes, condos, townhomes, that kind of thing. Right? So folks, look, the market is absolutely incredible. The market is cyclical. Let me share one last thought with you. We virtually have no foreclosures in Washington County right now.
Jeremy: We are talking about, folks, let me give you some perspective. We are talking about almost zero, virtually none in Washington County.
Jesse: Out of how many active listings? 1400?
Jeremy: 1500 homes on the market. Well, how many homes are in the county? 10,000?
Jeremy: More. I do not know how many. That is a number we need to get.
Jesse: How many homes are actually built?
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, properties.
Jesse: I will work on that.
Jeremy: Thank you. There are virtually no foreclosures. Real estate is cyclical. A decade ago, we know for a fact, I know because I was selling homes that I was handling at one point, the Larkin Group, we were handling over 70 foreclosed or soon-to-be foreclosed properties.
Jeremy: Just us. Guys, the most important message that you can ever receive about real estate is that it is cyclical. Markets go up and they go down. This will be a time that people regret not selling because values are high, and they will have been high, and it is a time that people, this is ironic because it does not always work this way, will have regretted not buying because rates will go up another point.
Jesse: I think that is a big piece.
Jeremy: And they will be ticked. It is a strange and actually amazing time in real estate. Headed back to a balanced market.
Mike: You are listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin. For more detail and information, call 275-1690 or find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.