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What You MUST KNOW About St. George Real Estate in 2019! (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)

 

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Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Jeremy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Hey man, talk about shaking off the Christmas, what is it, Craig? I do not know. It is the Christmas cobwebs. How does that sound?
Craig: I can hardly talk this morning.
Jeremy: Well, listen. I am glad you are awake. I am glad you are here. Tell you what. The studio is largely empty, but guess what? We are here. We are here. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, live at the Cherry Creek Radio Studios. And the cool part is Jesse and I are wearing similar, similar outfits this morning.
Jesse: We did not plan that.
Jeremy: Listen, this is a new Christmas sweater I have got on. And you know what? Here is the deal. I can go here. I can go hoodie. Do you want to go hoodie?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: I can do the whole show like this. For all of our Facebook live folks, you can see me.
Jesse: Santa brought all my grandkids pajamas with hoodies.
Jeremy: Nice.
Jesse: They were pretty cool.
Jeremy: One piece? Like a one-piece pajama?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Nice. Man. Santa, let me tell you about that guy. He knows exactly what kids needs. He knows exactly what grandkids need and granddads and everything else. I like it. You had a good Christmas, didn’t you?
Jesse: Oh yeah. All the kids were here. And the grandkids. It was first –
Jeremy: Beautiful, man.
Jesse: — time I think ever that we have had all the grandkids in one place for more than a couple of hours.
Jeremy: Really? Really? All of them? As in all of them?
Jesse: All four. Yep.
Jeremy: All of them.
Jesse: It was awesome. Last night, the house was just tore up.
Jeremy: Just gone.
Jesse: I got in trouble because I was just sitting there relaxing.
Jeremy: Like what do you want me to do, honey? I am just trying to –
Jesse: Can you not see all these toys laying around?
Jeremy: I am just trying to enjoy myself here.
Jesse: No, not really. Are there toys there?
Jeremy: Well, you know what, let me tell you something. My kitchen was, the house was a disaster. Santa came through. He must have been there at 1am, and then things were fine. I cleaned up, and then the kids decided to do what kids do, and then it was a mess, and then I cleaned it up yet again. Cooked a big breakfast. Do you know what hootenannies are, Jesse? Have you ever heard of them? Do you know what a hootenanny is?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: Hootenanny is a German pancake. There you go. So a lot of people know what a German pancake is. Have you had German pancakes?
Jesse: I have heard of German pancakes, but I have called them German pancakes.
Jeremy: It is incredible.
Jesse: Or is that crepes?
Jeremy: Nope. Cup of flour, cup of milk, six eggs, salt, you melt a stick of butter in the pan. You mix that all together in the blender. You throw it in there. You cook it for 25 minutes.
Jesse: Hootenanny.
Jeremy: Hootenanny.
Jesse: Did I say it right?
Jeremy: Yeah, I am not sure where that, I would love to know from my mother where on earth hootenanny came from. But we had German pancakes. It is a tradition. Always do it. And guess what? Today is December 27th. The question of the morning: Is it going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, guys? Do we think it is going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, Jesse? Yay or nay?
Jesse: I doubt it. I doubt it.
Jeremy: They are saying maybe. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, chime in. Comment. Tell us what you think. Craig, what do you think? Look, you are the traffic guy. You are the weather guy.
Craig: If you head north probably. I am not sure. It was flurries this morning just barely, but –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah. Maybe. Where do you live at?
Craig: Parowan.
Jeremy: Yeah, so you were getting snow then.
Craig: Yeah.
Jeremy: How much snow was down on the ground?
Jesse: Yeah, definitely.
Craig: Not much. Maybe an inch or two.
Jeremy: I knew you lived north, but I did not you were Parowan.
Jesse: That is a dedicated radio dude.
Craig: It was (indiscernible)
Jesse: You are driving what? 65 miles?
Craig: Yeah, about. It is an hour.
Jeremy: Oh, I love Parowan.
Craig: Yeah, I do, too.
Jeremy: There is a building I want to purchase in Parowan downtown.
Jesse: We were just talking about that.
Jeremy: Yeah. I was up there last week, skied, came down, ate at Calavario’s. I love that place.
Craig: Oh yes. I do, too.
Jeremy: It is such a fun little family restaurant. The vibe is amazing.
Craig: Yep.
Jeremy: Great people. Well, we have got Craig Bennett, sticking his neck in here for Mike McGarry. Mike, as they say, his days are numbered, but not that kind of numbered.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: This guy, we have got an upcoming change of careers, as in he is going to go to the career that we all want.
Craig: Yes.
Jeremy: The retirement career. So we are going to talk to him. We are going to have a fun show with Mike this next month and talk about his history in radio and career. When I was quite young, Mike was calling a lot of the sports here in St. George.
Craig: Yeah, 41 years.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is a long time. It a long time.
Jesse: That is a long career on the air.
Jeremy: It is going to be a very interesting time as Mike transitions out and we have a new co-host here in the studios. So it is December 27th, 2018, and we had some fun this last week. I thought this would, before we transition, I thought this would, last week, we talked about five things you absolutely have to know about the real estate market, specifically the St. George real estate market –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — as we move into 2019, and this would be anyone who is thinking of buying or selling, and let me tell you who else that would cover because there is really two groups of people. There are people who are thinking of buying and selling, and then there is, might I say there are three. There is a second group that would buy and sell under the right conditions.
Jesse: Right. If I could do this, I would do that.
Jeremy: Yeah, if I could get blank, I would do blank. And then there is another group that it has not necessarily crossed their mind. And this is often, for instance, we have talked about out-of-state homeowners or landlords who go, wait a minute. You mean to tell me that the market is probably at 10-year peak? Well, I do. I do mean to tell you that very intentionally.
Jesse: Absolutely.
Jeremy: We are most certainly at very close, if not at the peak, for this cycle. This might be someone who decides well I could buy an investment property? Well, absolutely you could buy an investment property. You have no idea. There are a lot of things you could do that you are not aware that you could do. These are regular business owners. People who could come in and purchase an investment property, Jesse, and have a stranger pay the mortgage every month plus some profit for the next 10 to 20, 30 years, and you would have quite a little nest egg. So there are three groups. I want to buy or sell. I would buy or sell under the right conditions. I have not really even thought about it, but now that you are suggesting it to me.
Jesse: Yeah, that creates a whole other show right there about (indiscernible)
Jeremy: Absolutely.
Jesse: Really taking the time to do your homework there.
Jeremy: Exactly. That is exactly right.
Jesse: Because that is a long-term haul if you are buying right now.
Jeremy: Well, it is, but it is always a long-term. It is always long-term. So real estate investment is always long term. Buying and flipping homes is something people love to talk about. That is not a play that 97.93% of the people, you know what, no. That is not a play that 99% of the population is ever going to make in their whole entire lifetime. So legitimately, 1% of your real estate investors out there are going to be in the flipping game. And then there is a list of reasons. And that is also a separate show. But we are going to recap those five points, but I wanted to share something kind of fun. This last week, we put a post on our Larkin Group Facebook page, and we are going to give you one shot, one last shot, Jesse. These folks at winning the gift basket.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: We said Christmas Eve, but there was a kind of a fun little energy to these comments, so we have a post that says Merry Christmas from the Larkin Group. Would you like a little Christmas boost from the Larkin Group? And if you want to know where this is at, folks, Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and you can comment, and you may win the gift basket. Share something on your Christmas list in the comments below, and we will choose one lucky winner from all of our commenters. Right? Commentors. So I thought it would be interesting, because we are in the Christmas season to share what people talked about. You ready?
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Do you want to know what they said?
Jesse: I am ready.
Jeremy: Colby wanted a backyard firepit area. Yes or no? We are going to go through each one, and then you tell me yes or no whether you want it. How about that?
Jesse: I have one.
Jeremy: Beautiful.
Jesse: It is just a makeshift right now because it is in the process, but we just had a fire the other night.
Jeremy: And it was nice.
Jesse: It was nice.
Jeremy: A phone call from our missionary from the Abbotts. Well, yeah everybody, these kids that go on all these LDS missions, they only talk to their parents on Mother’s Day and Christmas.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: So it is four calls in two years. That is how that works. That is a long time. Right? So the Graphs, or excuse me, the Abbotts, a call from the missionary. Lynda Wallenfels. She is my good friend. She wanted someone to paint her house. Yeah, I would take that.
Jesse: That I would do because I am right in the process of getting ready to do that.
Jeremy: I love this. Jenae, listen, I hope you are listening Jenae Bang, who is a long-time friend of ours. To sell our house. I responded, yeah, we know how to do that. Andrew Young, who creates our Facebook graphics, all he wanted was an Amazon gift card. That is very simple.
Jesse: I would take that.
Jeremy: You would take it? Okay. How about the Esplins, since I bought all my own gifts, I am excited to open my Instapot.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: I like that.
Jesse: I should just go buy one of those because everybody is talking about them.
Jeremy: Yeah, you need one.
Jesse: I do bone broth every two weeks.
Jeremy: You need one. You need one.
Jesse: In my 20-year old pressure cooker.
Jeremy: You do, man. I will rapid fire these out. Somebody wants new dishes, a sound system for their family room. Steve wants a new, hey a new shave, a nice Christmas shave. A safe trip across the country when we move back to St. George. Welcome back, Quinton and Maury Jensen on the way back. Robert, good morning, my friend, a new backyard landscape. That is cool. We can do that for you.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: St. George Day Spa. Michelle wanted, not Michelle on our team, another Michelle, a full day at the spa. That is all. Jamie Mecham, a Chicago Bears sweater or t-shirt. Somebody wanted our troops to return safe and to be able to speak to their families at Christmas. I think that is fine. Jesse Poll here, you wanted a fancy drone. Did it happen?
Jesse: Not yet. That is a ways out.
Jeremy: Keep the intention out.
Jesse: I do not just want to go buy a cheap one. I want to really plan for this.
Jeremy: I love this. Probably my favorite one, and there is a picture of a tiny, adorable baby with two Christmas stockings that are bigger than the baby –
Jesse: That we already have.
Jeremy: Some money to finish our adoption next month, Tim shared.
Jesse: That is a cool one.
Jeremy: That is very cool.
Jesse: That was very cool one.
Jeremy: So I think it is fun to see what people are talking about. It is Christmas time. These are the things that folks are thinking about, and these are some good answers, some really great answers. If you want to comment this morning, we will draw at noon today. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and that post is pinned to the top of the page. You will see the Merry Christmas and go from there. I better plug this laptop in. It says it is going low.
Jesse: Imagine that.
Jeremy: What do you think? Talk to me about an article that we shared yesterday. Well, we shared it with our team yesterday.
Jesse: Right. Well, this –
Jeremy: The market is shifting.
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: We have sellers wondering why their homes are not selling. Give us some feedback.
Jesse: We are still in a really strong market even though all over town people are talking about a shifting market. There is still less than four months of inventory on the market. So that is still considered a really strong market.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: But there is about 30% or 40% of homes that still fail to sell for whatever reason. They go on the market and they come off unsold. Now there are things that you can do about that. So there are five most common reasons where a home, why a home will not sell in the strongest market.
Jeremy: Let’s hit them fast. I want to hit these because, and then we are going to wrap up the show with a recap of the five things you have to know.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: So what are the five reasons? Because, Jesse, the reason we are talking about this specifically is it is December 27th. On January 1st, which is next Tuesday, there will be a record for the year, number of what we call expired listings. And for our listeners out there, an expired listing is a home listing, the home was on the market for typically six months. Sometimes less. Sometimes more. But typically six months, and it did not sell. And remember that these sellers, these homeowners when they put their homes on the market six months ago, the last thing, they would have had a dialogue that looked like this and tell me if I am close.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: Jesse, how long is your listing term?
Jesse: Six months.
Jeremy: Great, great. Okay. It is June, so that would be the end of December. Well, gosh, there is no way we would not have our home sold by Christmas, right?
Jesse: Oh sure. Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Probably sixty days we will have it sold.
Jeremy: Yeah, okay. That was six months ago.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: And now these listings are going to expire. So there are a large number of the home-selling population who are saying what the heck happened? And the market shifted a little bit. What are the five things, five reasons a home does not sell? And we cannot drill the details, but what are they? And then we are going to share this to our Facebook page this morning as well. Go for it.
Jesse: So number one is price.
Jeremy: Number one is price.
Jesse: Number two is the condition of the house.
Jeremy: Bingo. Okay. Keep going.
Jesse: Three is the seller’s motivation.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: Four is the marketing plan, and number five is lack of communication with your agent.
Jeremy: Okay, let me ask you a couple of things here. What do we have, of those five, read those back to us again.
Jesse: Price.
Jeremy: Price.
Jesse: The condition of the home, the seller’s motivation, marketing plan, and the communication or lack of communication with the agent.
Jeremy: So how many of those do we have? Which of those items do we really have control over?
Jesse: We have control over the price, the condition, and the marketing plan, and well, the communication.
Jeremy: I guess we could communicate.
Jesse: So the only thing we cannot control, and I would even say the seller cannot control, is their own motivation. They are going to have, it is going to be what it is unless they have a change in circumstance or a change in perception.
Jeremy: What do we mean by motivation though?
Jesse: Well, I really have to move. I have a new job in 60 days. I have to move versus well, I would sell it if I could get the right price.
Jeremy: If I could get the right price.
Jesse: If it could really be the perfect condition, I would sell. So that is what we mean by motivation.
Jeremy: Right. I think this is really interesting. So four of those five factors, that is what is kind of interesting about this situation is you actually have control over 80% —
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — of the issues.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Here is what we do not have control over, which are not even listed. Exceptionally cold weather, a massive snowstorm, a government shutdown, 2013.
Jesse: Location.
Jeremy: We had both of those in 2013, and they hurt the, location unless you have a mobile, you cannot even move a mobile home. Right?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: You cannot control location. You cannot control economic conditions.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We cannot control public perception –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — of the market.
Jesse: You have to meet that right where it is at.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is just reality. So we actually have control over 80% of these factors. We can control the price we are asking. We can control, you as a seller with a good agent, as professional real estate marketers, we can absolutely control the marketing that we are doing for a home.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? We have full power over how much we communicate with the seller, and most importantly, what we communicate with the client.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: By the way, us talking to you everyday does not change anything. Us communicating what matters will change something.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: So when we talk about these kinds of things, look folks, there are a large number of homes that just are not selling, and we are moving into 2019, and the market has been hot, and there is a perception that well, maybe the market is not good anymore. Right? Maybe the market is not good anymore. The market is great. Jesse, of all of those issues that you just listed, what is the overarching, number one, primary issue that is almost always the issue?
Jesse: Price.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is price.
Jesse: It is typically always price.
Jeremy: It is. It is. Right? Because there is a market, it is interesting. We have talked about this for a while on the show that Red Bull is one of our sponsors. I had to wink at Craig there. If you consider that I pay for their product and they put it in here. I have cut back on my Red Bull consumption greatly. I have got tangerine this morning. Now Craig, you realize this is 100% pure Florida orange juice in this can. Okay. Maybe it is not. It is interesting though. If I go to, I went to the Sinclair here on Bluff Street this morning. I had myself a really good breakfast, but I needed a drink. It is two for five bucks, this product right now. Do you know what the price is on this product at Maverick?
Jesse: I have no idea.
Jeremy: Do you want to guess?
Jesse: Four bucks.
Jeremy: Well, it is two for five bucks at that store. What do you, now I have given you a hint.
Jesse: Actually three-fifty-nine.
Jeremy: Okay. What do you think the price might be, Craig? If it is two for five at this Sinclair, what do you think it is at the Maverick, their competitor?
Jesse: Oh, at the, oh okay.
Jeremy: It is also two for five bucks. Guess what it is at Chevron? It is two for five bucks. Should I keep going? That is the market for these Red Bull cans.
Jesse: See, I was busy messing with my, my headphones keeping coming off, so I did not hear you correctly.
Jeremy: But it is a great question because it catches you off guard. That is why I ask it. There is a market for a product, and the reason I, it is just so funny this morning, I was thinking about it. I thought it is two for five everywhere. Or whatever, five-twenty-five. I do not know what it is. It is around there. Everywhere they are selling this at that rate. Under what circumstances would you pay two for six if you knew you could always get them two for five? Well, I do not know. If I were in a desperate situation and it was a long drive. Is it a long drive to any gas station? Craig has got three or four great ones in Parowan. There are two I love.
Jesse: (Indiscernible)
Jeremy: I love the Maverick, and I love the new whatever you call it out by the freeway. What do you call it?
Craig: Oh yeah, it is KB.
Jeremy: KB. Those are both great.
Jesse: What is interesting though is people will drive clear across town for the best gas price.
Jeremy: They will. They will. They will kill themselves.
Jesse: They will do the same thing for a home.
Jeremy: Yeah, so, so –
Jesse: Get the best value.
Jeremy: Isn’t that amazing? So I understand that your home is special, and I say that with a wink and a nod, because we all think our home is special. And I understand you have the best children. I do not know. Some of the listeners are like no, no, no. We just did Christmas. I assure you I do not have the best children. No, my kids are great. They are happy. They are healthy. They loved Christmas.
Jesse: And they are fighting just like everybody else’s.
Jeremy: Yeah, they were. They were. But the point is that there is a market. Price will always be the number one, overarching factor that is affecting your home’s, Jesse, what factor does this price solve for a home seller? Name some things that price solves.
Jesse: Price?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Well, it will solve, if you are at the right price, you will actually get showings.
Jeremy: But what will it solve? What are the problems it solves? What if my home is by a busy road?
Jesse: Then there is no other way to go but to price it correctly.
Jeremy: Oh okay.
Jesse: Because a buyer is going to look at that –
Jeremy: What if I have a crappy view?
Jesse: Well, that is definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I have no backyard?
Jesse: Definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I need to renovate my house or replace my carpets?
Jesse: Then it is price.
Jeremy: What if the buyers are not real excited about buying homes right now?
Jesse: Then it is going to be price.
Jeremy: What if interest rates are rising?
Jesse: It would be price.
Jeremy: This is a fun conversation, isn’t it? Is there any issue that price does not solve? Any issue? Is there any single issue? Let’s pretend the government shut down today, and you could only buy a home with cash. What factor would solve the issue for any seller?
Jesse: Probably price.
Jeremy: Price. But Jeremy, everyone is going to stop buying homes. Everyone will not. Everyone will not stop buying homes. That has never happened ever in the history of housing. It has never happened.
Jesse: (Indiscernible)
Jeremy: Right?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Price solves every issue. Why homes do not sell in a strong market, let’s give you things you need to know before they move into 2019. Right? We still have a strong market. Jesse, you know these from last week. Let me review them and you ping in here. Number one, interest are or are not rising? They have been.
Jesse: They have been. They have been going up and down, but they are probably going to continue to go up.
Jeremy: They are going to continue to go up.
Jesse: They say they are, but they are just not sure how fast they will let them go up.
Jeremy: So this is number one. Interest rates have risen. They are rising, and you cannot, we talked about putting the pedal to the metal on your car and just drive it at full speed indefinitely. Number one, you will run into something. But number two, it will run out of fuel. The housing market has been on crazy, crazy, crazy pace for a long time. Number two, we are not in a housing what?
Jesse: Bubble.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are not in a bubble. This is not a bubble. And what is it that Chantry Abbott always shares with us, Guild Mortgage when he comes in here, about qualifications for loans now?
Jesse: They are actually a lot better than they were in 2005, 6, and 7. They are still pretty strict.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually –
Jesse: You still have to qualify.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually qualifying for homes.
Jesse: And they still check your qualifications.
Jeremy: They do.
Jesse: Pretty harshly. I just went through a refinance.
Jeremy: Yeah, they did. They are like you had a receipt for gas from 1998. Is that in the wallet? Did you keep track of that?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: It is a file.
Jesse: Where did this money go out of your checking account? Where did it come from?
Jeremy: Exactly. And so I am a little out of order. Number one, interest rates are rising. Number two, we are not in a housing bubble. We are not going to have a bubble burst. Number three, which is connected to number one, which is why I say I am a little out of order. I have some scribbled notes from last week. Rates are rising for a very good reason, which is what?
Jesse: Well, they have been holding them artificially down, and we either let them go back to natural or we are going to cause more of a problem.
Jeremy: Because the market is healthy –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: — we can do that.
Jesse: Right. They have been holding them down to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: So if you have got a teenager and did you notice that if they follow the rules and they earn trust, and they do what mom and dad ask that between 12 and 14 and 16 and 18 that suddenly some of the boundaries are lifted, and a little more freedom is given —
Jesse: Interesting to note.
Jeremy: — to that child. Right? The same thing happened with the economy. The government comes in here and puts, originally they put a tourniquet on because literally we were bleeding out.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? Then we did surgery.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Then we stitched it up. Then we had a cast and a sling. We are getting back to health in the economy, so the government says all right, we do not have to suppress interest rates artificially anymore.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Interest rates are going up, and they are going up because the economy is actually doing great. One of the massive misconceptions that happens when a market starts to shift a little bit, as we wrap up today, is it slows down a little bit and people go oh, the market crashed. The market has not crashed. It is doing fantastic. Okay? Two minutes. Perfect. Okay. I love this. I love this. Number four, renting, excuse me, buying is again, and has always been, a more profitable for the average human being, American citizen than owning. The average net worth of a homeowner at age 65 is $300,000 versus the average net worth of a non-homeowner or a renter at age 65 was, do you remember the number?
Jesse: I think 30, 30, I cannot remember.
Jeremy: 5,000.
Jesse: Oh, 5,000.
Jeremy: There is no net worth.
Jesse: That is ridiculous. That is unbelievable.
Jeremy: Essentially, unless they have a really good retirement. But this is an average, right? We are talking about people who have nothing versus people who have a lot and average it. Average net worth of a homeowner is $300,000, okay?
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: So remember that. Last point, home values in St. George are not only not falling, they are at about a ten-year peak, ten-year peak. This will be a time that people will look back and say I wish I would have sold my home, especially people who are non-occupants. Landlords or second homeowners will wish they had done it. Okay? And they are not only not falling, there is the potential with a lot of the forecasts, 94% of the economists interviewed last week in our report, said we think they will go up in 2019. I do not know that they will in St. George. Jesse and I have debated this. I do not know.
Jesse: Well, the market does not turn on a dime. So they might not, they are not going to be at this intense pace, but –
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: — it is going to take a while for them to slow down and turn.
Jeremy: It is.
Jesse: So that is why I say I disagree.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: They will go up a little bit.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: Just from momentum.
Jeremy: I say they will not. You say they will. We will find out.
Jesse: So next year we are going to have this conversation again.
Jeremy: Folks, if you want to reach out to us, please call us at 275-1690 or visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. A lot of people have questions right now about the real estate market. Absolutely no obligation. Sold in St. George dot com or hop on Facebook and make a comment about the Christmas giveaway. I think somebody may win a basket today.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Jeremy Larkin, Jesse Poll thanking you, saying we know this town.
Jesse: Happy Holidays.

St. George Home Buyers React to Sticker Shock (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)

 

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday morning. It is time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in once again with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Hopefully Mike will plug me in here. I do not know where this thing plugs into. It plugs in somewhere. Hey, we are live in the Cherry Creek Radio Studios on North Bluff Street. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, you would see the chaos ensuing. By the way, chaos unneeded in life. It is okay to not have chaos. It is okay to live drama-free. It is not a problem.
Jesse: But it is not fun.
Jeremy: Nah. Yes, it is. It is a lot of fun, and it is okay to live without drama. I assure you right now. Okay? So you have a little, thank you, Mike, little snafu. Plugged in. I can actually hear now and be involved and engaged in, as they say, present with you. Hey, Merry Christmas. You can hear the jingling of the bells. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, I think just envision a little more than, not lime but not forest green sweatshirt with a bunch of kitty cats all over the front of it with bells, actual bells and a few Christmas bows. I think it is a nice sweatshirt. I asked Jesse to wear an ugly sweatshirt this morning. Ugly sweater, he put on a nice sweater.
Jesse: Well, I could not find my Christmas sweater, my ugly sweater. So I have a shirt. I thought that was for later.
Jeremy: Well, he asked a question this morning in our group feed. Over at the Larkin Group, we run a real estate company. If you guys do not know who we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Been hosting this show for at least five years. We might have pushed clear back into 2012, which would be over five years. I know we are five years, and we run a real estate company here in St. George, Utah, and we help people through what seems really easy but ends up being the third most harrowing experience of their life shy of a birth, a death, fourth most, a birth, a death or a divorce. Literally, buying and selling and moving is –
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — it seems to be next for most people. We help people through that process –
Jesse: Very stressful.
Jeremy: — of buying and selling and investing and help them make good decisions. But I have got Jesse Poll here, one of my business partners, great guy. But this morning on the group chat, we have a group chat. Right? And he said do you want us to bring a Christmas sweater or an ugly sweater? And I said there is no difference, dude. There is no such thing as a Christmas sweater that is not ugly. It is actually a fact.
Jesse: Now, I am corrected. There you go.
Jeremy: I do not care if you show up with a reindeer on your shirt –
Jesse: That is ugly.
Jeremy: — like a nice stag and you think something like this is cool. This is masculine. It is an ugly sweater, dude.
Jesse: And there you go.
Jeremy: Okay, so as long as we know that. Hey, if you are not watching us on Facebook Live, please, you can pick it up and you can see what we are doing. Ask us anything. This is one of the things that we are going to start talking about on our shows. You can ask us anything about the real estate market. And if you do, it should pop up on our screen here. Today, we are going to talk about, it is, by the way, December 20, 2018 for those who are picking up our show later on the podcast or over at our website, Sold in St. George dot com. If you would like to listen to past shows, you can literally go to Sold in St. George dot com. Each show is about 23 minutes long, 24 minutes.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And we have them on there again. Sold in St. George dot com and click on the blog. But if you are watching on Facebook, let us know you are out there. Give us a thumb or a heart or ask a question. Ask us anything. We are going to talk about five things you have to know about the real estate market moving into 2018, 2019, excuse me. Because 2018 is eleven days ready to expire, right. Eleven days from now we will be done with this year, and you will be writing, fortunately, most people are not writing checks. We do at our office, and you can stop putting the wrong date on, or start putting the wrong date on everything.
Jesse: This is the first year I did not do that. Maybe it is because I do not write checks anymore.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Well, there you go. There you go. I write a handful. Not personally. Well, occasionally even personally I write one, but typically, typically, I am writing checks only for the business. So you all know what we are talking about. Right? It is January 7th, 10th, 20th, 30th, and I do not even know if there is a 40th in there, and you are still writing 2000, I think you write 2018, the previous year until at least June.
Jesse: At least.
Jeremy: And then you start over. Hey, here is a New Year’s resolution for everybody. Most people burn out on their resolutions by about January 20th, and do you know why? This is actually not a joke. I am going to tell you why if you would like to know.
Jesse: Because they are unrealistic. They are not really goals.
Jeremy: They may be realistic.
Jesse: They are pipe dreams most of, most of the New Year’s resolutions that I have ever done is a pipe dream, and they change my entire being instead of just making a little bit of an improvement.
Jeremy: And I like that. So they may be realistic. They may not, but what you are saying is right. What happens is, so we work in the real estate community, and we will be doing some business planning tomorrow as a team. We will go off site and do some great motivation and business planning for 2019. Well, what will happen is someone will say I want to lose 20 pounds in 2019. Or I want to sell 30 homes in 2019. So they divide that out by the months, and they say okay, I am going to have to lose X number of pounds or sell X number of homes per month. What happens is about January 20th, 25th, they find out that they are already behind, and what we do is we start to hate ourselves right then. We go oh well, this is just like 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, and 12 when I said the same thing. And oh five and six. And instantaneously, we start to hate ourselves for, and I know hate is such a strong word, but I have to be honest, folks. It is pretty much a hatred if you are real honest out there. I realize you are saying are we doing a psychology show? Well, real estate is psychology. But just for fun, here is a New Year’s resolution. You write out who it is you want to be, what you want to have, and what you want to do, and you start with who you want to be because that is what we are going to do tomorrow as a team. Who do I want to be? What will I need to do to have what I want to have? Right? And if I cannot be the kind of person that has those things, then I will not be able to have them, that does those things, I will not be able to do the things to have the things.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Then the resolution, folks, is you just accept yourself where you are at. And if January 20th comes around and you were supposed to lose three pounds and you have lost zero, you say, you know what, I love myself for the effort I am making all the way through January 20th. That is 20 days I was making a stronger effort I was during the month of December when I was eating all the goodies that they kept dropping off at my office. And the neighbors kept swinging by. Boy, it was nice of them to bring me toffee and fudge.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And then guess what you do? You get up on January 21st, and you reboot, and you try again. That is the resolution that I am going to encourage our listeners to do. Is you love yourself for the goal.
Jesse: You just keep going?
Jeremy: Yep, you love yourself for failing at the goal. You love yourself for your humanity. You love yourself for the fact that you screwed up the previous five years, and then you just keep going.
Jesse: But I think the most important part of what you just said is we do not take into fact that it is going to take a little bit longer to actually get the habit or the whatever we are reaching for –
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: — to start to show up. Take the weight loss. It may be in the 35th day that it really starts to change our metabolism.
Jeremy: Yeah. We have been thinking a certain way for 30, 40 years most of us, and sometimes 50, 60, 70. So hey, that is your psychology lesson for this morning.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: But truly, I think it makes such an impact when you are able to do that. Let’s talk about five things you have to know about St. George and the real estate market. So we, Jesse and I, last night and this morning, excuse me, we spent a few hours breaking down some information provided by a company called Keeping Current Matters and a fellow named Steve Harney. And what Steve Harney does, Keeping Current Matters is he spends all of his days and nights, drum roll please, researching the market. That is all he does.
Jesse: This guy says he reads eight hours a day. Reads.
Jeremy: Reads.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: And we have a lot of real estate. By the way, the failure rate for real estate agents is you make decisions to hire an agent in 2019. The failure rate for real estate agents is 87% over how long?
Jesse: Five years.
Jeremy: Over five years. So, 87% of real estate agents will either quit the business entirely or take another full-time job even if they keep their license active over a five-year period.
Jesse: You know what number surprised me in that data was there is 1.3 million real estate agents, and only 47,000 of those that will do more than 25 units or transactions a year.
Jeremy: Okay, so think about this. 1.3 million real estate agents –
Jesse: In the U.S.
Jeremy: In the U.S., right. And 43,000, is that what they said?
Jesse: 47,000.
Jeremy: 47,000 –
Jesse: Will do more than 25 transactions.
Jeremy: — divided by 1.3 million. 3.6% of the professionals that, because realize, you as a consumer if you are listening to our show, if you know someone who has a license, in your mind, and by the way, you are not ignorant, it is just you have no reason to believe that they would not be a professional.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: But we are telling you that there is actually a 3.6% likelihood that they are really good at what they do.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: By the way, it might even be lower than that. You might have people selling 30 homes that are not good at what they do. But let’s just assume that by the time you are selling 25 transactions, you –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: You know what you are doing. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, their feet are wet.
Jeremy: 3.6% chance that you are hiring someone who actually, who has actually really been doing this a long time and who has, who can, they might have your best interests at heart, but Jesse, I might have your best interests at heart when you are laying on the street bleeding, but I do not have the medical ability and professional expertise to save you from dying.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Do we see that? And man, I know that was a gruesome one. That was a good one. Just because someone has your best interests in mind does not mean that they can serve and meet your best interest. So okay, they broke this down, and we are going to nail this thing this morning. This is so powerful, this information. There are five things that we want you to know, and I am going to warm us up this morning because we want you to be, our listeners, the smartest kids on the block. We always talk about that. Right? If you walk away from the show every week saying did not know that, did not think about that. Ring your jingle bells as I am jingling along here and maybe watch Jingle All the Way with Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know he is the world’s worst actor? But somehow it is fun to watch him.
Jesse: I enjoy watching him.
Jeremy: It is like watching a car accident. You just want to see. 1,400 real estate agents in Washington County according to Robert. Good morning, Robert. 1,400, okay?
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: Times 1,400. That means, that is about right. 50 agents, 50 of the 1,400 in Washington County are really selling at a volume level. I call that 25 or more transactions. Which is actually pretty good since the minimum standard to even be at the Larkin Group is?
Jesse: 24.
Jeremy: 24 transactions. Yeah. So we cannot even have a sales person on our team that is not selling 24 homes. Just too complicated. They do not have enough information to help the client, and there you go. Good morning David and Kierstin. Love having all of you on here this morning. Number one, are you guys ready? Five things you have to know about the real estate market. Number one, we are not in a bubble. We are not in a bubble.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: This is not the next housing bubble. Jesse, give us a definition of a housing recession.
Jesse: Two months –
Jeremy: Two quarters.
Jesse: Two quarters of downward pricing or –
Jeremy: Yeah, the economy is slowing down.
Jesse: — is slowing.
Jeremy: If I tell you that we are in a recession, you get nervous. Right?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: That is a scary word. Right? But if I tell you hey, I was noticing, the economy slowed down the last two quarters. Do you quite get that chill down your spine?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: You should not because they are different. Recession is like a four-letter word, a really naughty one.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? So a recession is nothing more than two straight quarters of economic slowdown. Okay. Folks, if you go to your children’s track at their school this morning, and they line you up and they say you are going to do, you are going to run as fast as you possibly can around this track. Like what do you mean? Am I going to run a mile or two miles? I need to know how long I am running so I will know how fast to run. No, Jesse, I want you to run as fast as you possibly can until you have to stop. How far would you go realistically you think? 400 meters around that track. How far do you think you could actually, far you think you could go at the fastest?
Jesse: How far at the fastest?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Probably half way.
Jeremy: That is about it. That is probably about right for most people. You would just about keel over at 200 yards.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So what you are telling me is that you cannot keep running at your very fastest speed all the way around the track indefinitely?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: Neither can the economy.
Jesse: Sixty seconds is about –
Jeremy: Yeah. And neither can your car at 100 miles per hour. It will run out of fuel. Your Tesla will run out of power. The economy cannot continue at this pace. So when we say it slowed down for two quarters, it is like thank goodness. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number two data point, market interest rates are rising. We have heard that interest rates have been rising. Okay? This is a two point. Interest rates are rising, and the reason is because the economy, Jesse, is good or bad?
Jesse: Because it is good.
Jeremy: Isn’t that an interesting way to look at that? Isn’t that a different way to look at that?
Jesse: Right, but they have needed to rise because the Fed has been actually holding them, they have been paying money to hold them down.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: To boost, or to continue to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: They have been bribing the economy.
Jesse: We cannot do that forever.
Jeremy: Right?
Jesse: Without some pretty severe consequences.
Jeremy: Lincoln, Darrell, Devin, that is like a triple power. If you guys all knew each other. Well, actually Devin bought Lincoln’s home. So maybe they do know each other. Small world. Good morning, guys. Think about what you just said. Right? Interest rates are going up because the economy is in good shape not because it is in bad shape.
Jesse: And because it is time. In St. George, anyway, for a year we have said wow, this has got to slow down. We cannot continue this pace.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have been watching my kid run around the track for the last several years, and he looks sick.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: This does not look, this is not good.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I think he is going to have a heart attack.
Jesse: So we have been praying for this, and now it is just time.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. This is fun. Point number, we are going to come up to one about equity in just a minute.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So point number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay? We are not even close to a housing bubble and we are going to give you more data to prove that. So the question is are we in a bubble? Is this, okay, we are not in a bubble. Number two, interest rates are rising, but it is because, Jesse?
Jesse: They need to.
Jeremy: They need to. Okay? And by the way –
Jesse: To stabilize our economy, they need to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way, Jeremy, what do you think interest rates are going to do in 2019? I do not know, guys. Honestly, I am tired of making predictions. They keep, they raise them, and then they said they were not going to raise them.
Jesse: And then they lowered them.
Jeremy: I do not know what they are going to do. Okay? Here is what I do know. We have used this analogy so many times. If you are about to travel across 200 miles of open desert in the middle of the summer, and you see a sign that says this is the last gas station, water, and services for 200 miles, and your children are in your car, do you or do you not stop?
Jesse: You stop.
Jeremy: You stop. You are like I do not know. We will buy something. Get some gum and use the bathroom.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: What I know is interest rates are what they are today, and historically, they are half of historic, half of what they were historically. Meaning, folks, if rates ever go back, we talked about it with Chantry Abbott from Guild Mortgage last week on the show, if rates went back to the historical average, your payment would go up $500 per month if you went to get a new mortgage. Oops. Okay. Number three, this is pretty exciting. Owning a home has always and will continue to be a much better financial position than renting. Let’s talk about the data.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Okay, this is number three. Did you hear what they said what the net worth of the typical home renter was over the age of 65?
Jesse: I did not. I did not catch that.
Jeremy: Did you miss that? Okay, I do not know if you grabbed it.
Jesse: Well, I heard it, but I do not remember.
Jeremy: The typical renter over the age of 65 in the United States of America has a net worth of $5,000. Folks, do you realize what $5,000 is? It is like when my kids, they were doing the Summit Athletic Rock, $10,000, Dad, what would you do with ten grand? And I said, kids, it would be very disappointing how far that would not go.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Right? Ten grand it just not a lot of money.
Jesse: It is not.
Jeremy: And if there is a listener out there that is like it is to me, it may be to you, but in the world, right, five grand is the net worth of the average renter over age of 65. Why do you think they measure people over 65, Jesse?
Jesse: Well, that is when we really need the money.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: We really, once you hit 65 –
Jeremy: How many 25 years-olds are worrying about their net worth? Thinking probably not a lot of them. The average net worth of a homeowner over 65 is? $300,000.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: Net worth meaning your net value of all of your assets if you cashed out. And where do you think all that value is? Well –
Jesse: most of it is in the real estate.
Jeremy: Most of it is in the real estate. Okay? So number three, owning a home is a much better financial play, has always been, and will always be, always be than ever than renting a home.
Jesse: Well, it definitely gives you more control. Because if you are renting a home and it is December, and your lease is coming up in January, you have no idea what is going to happen. Most likely, your rent is going to go up. But if you have a mortgage, it does not.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: It stays the same until you do something with it or to change it.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So you get a lot more control, and you are gaining equity.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: By most of the time, of course, the market rising or paying it down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Point number four, and point number four and five are going to look similar, but they are not. Number four is are prices falling? Home prices in St. George, Utah are not falling. Now, I had an interesting discussion this morning with my brother-in-law. He said a lot of my friends from northern Utah are looking at homes that they were checking out like six months ago and they said they dropped twenty or thirty grand. Did the value of the home drop twenty or thirty grand, or did the seller reduce the asking price that was too high to begin with by twenty or thirty grand?
Jesse: So the seller reduced the asking price, and I have got some data here that is really interesting.
Jeremy: Give it to us.
Jesse: If we look at the Washington County data for just last month. This came out, we put it out on December 2nd. The average list price is 499, but the average sold price is actually 352.
Jeremy: Average ask price was what 99?
Jesse: 499.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So those are not obviously on the same homes –
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: — but that is saying that people, the market is just saying okay, sellers are just going to have to reign in their prices a little bit to get their homes sold now.
Jeremy: Correct. So I want you think about this. I had a comment. David, thank you, on Facebook. He said I am kind of worried the prices are coming down, which is a bummer. Hard time to sell. First of all, David, this is a really interesting context. He works in California. Okay? He lives in St. George. He works in California. By the way, I have got a map of all the declining markets in the United States of America. Where are 90% of them? California. Almost all of them are in California, Dallas, Texas, and a handful of other markets. Declining markets. Folks, what is happening with prices right now is that sellers have been asking too much for their home.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: And so, we went up and we got up to the peak and then people stretched a little beyond that and said maybe I can get more. Okay? And this is number four. Every single home needs to be reduced. Every listing in the MLS needs to be reduced between 5 and 10%. Virtually everyone. I am going to say everyone. 5-10%. Virtually every home actively for sale, and that includes you For Sale By Owners, needs their price reduced by 5-10% to actually be in line with what the market will support. Okay? Prices are not necessarily falling in Washington County. People were simply asking too much.
Jesse: They are not falling at all.
Jeremy: They were simply asking too much. Okay?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: They have not fallen at all. We have no data to support it. Now here –
Jesse: And they cannot. So if you look at the supply and demand –
Jeremy: Keep going. I am going to run out of time.
Jesse: Can you even have a declining market when you have more demand than supply?
Jeremy: Not a chance. Thank you. That is so brilliant.
Jesse: You just cannot.
Jeremy: We still have more demand than supply.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We cannot have a declining market. Here is the fun part okay. Number five, here is the prediction. They asked 100 economists in this report that we went over, they asked 100 economists what they thought home prices were going to do in 2019. 96 of the 100 said?
Jesse: They are going up.
Jeremy: They are going to go up. Now, I do not believe they will go up in Washington County. Okay? Because when they asked economists, do you think they asked an economist in St. George, Utah what they thought?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: No, they did not. Okay? Of course, they did not. Because of those 100 economists, probably 75 of them were in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Okay.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We do not think home values are going to rise in Washington County. Okay? But here is what is happening. David made a great comment. It is hard to sell right now. Not many people buying. So this Steve Harney shared a great example. He and his wife went down to buy a Lincoln Towne Car. He is a big guy. He wants a big car. His wife says I want a Lincoln Towne Car. It has been my dream. They go down and they look at all the Lincoln Towne cars. After they look at them, she gets sticker shock. She is like oh, I am never paying that much for a car. And so just like a good husband, he is like okay, honey, whatever you say.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: They leave the dealership, and they go out and they look all around town. What did she find after she looked all around town?
Jesse: That Lincoln was the best value.
Jeremy: That what she wanted and what she needed and everything factored in, that the Lincoln was the best value. And where did they go back to?
Jesse: Lincoln.
Jeremy: Buyers hit stocker shock. Here we go. This is such a huge point. David, this is to your point. Buyers had sticker shock in September, October, November of 2018. December is an anomaly and it is hard to even predict what is going on in December. They have sticker shock. I made multiple offers. I am in bidding wars. I offered ten grand over and someone beat me.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I thought I was the first guy in and there were 12 people ahead of me. They got sticker shock. Folks, on January 2nd, all the young families, millennials or otherwise, that have the baby that is still sleeping in a crib in the room that they really needed to get out of the room in September –
Jesse: That is such a good analogy.
Jeremy: — but they are ticked off because the home market is too high. Sticker shock will fade and in January what will they say?
Jesse: They will come back.
Jeremy: I love this baby, but honey, we have got to get him out of the room.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: This is driving me crazy. And they will come back, and they are already coming back to the market. Folks, this is a great, healthy real estate market. Have a merry stinking Christmas out there, would you? Jeremy Larkin thanking you saying we know this town. Ask us anything. Write in this thread after this on Facebook.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive here on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU, with the voice of St. George Real Estate, Jeremy Larkin. Again, for more information, give them a call at 275-1690. You will find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.

Can You Spot a Shifting Real Estate Market? (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Radio Show)

 

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Jeremy:  Good morning.  How are we doing, folks?  I am here.  I am alive.  I have got a dead laptop. I am not sure why it is dead.  But guess what?  Does that ever happen?

Mike: All the time.

Jeremy:  So batteries actually die on these things –

Chantry:  Only when you need it though.  Right?

Jeremy:  Yeah, I know. It is okay.  We will plug it in and we will be good to go. I have got Chantry Abbot this morning with Guild Mortgage. Chantry, good morning.

Chantry:  Good morning.

Jeremy:  Give me something good.  What is the greatest thing that is happening in your life right now?

Chantry:  Oh man, the greatest thing that is happening in my life.  I just went to, my son’s doing, he is four –

Jeremy:  Got it.

Chantry:  — and so yesterday, I snuck out of work a little early and well, at about lunch time. Snuck out for a little break, and he is in a gymnastics class.

Jeremy:  Oh man.

Chantry:  And he totally digs it.  Somersaults and all that.

Jeremy:  I have got a 17-year-old who always referred to her gymnastics when she was that age as nastics.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  Something like that.  It is pretty fun.

Chantry:  I have been telling him that the Ninja Turtles do gymnastics, so he is really into the Ninja Turtles.

Mike:  He is sold.

Chantry:  Yeah, he is in that really learn his stuff.

Jeremy:  That is amazing.  I love this. Well, so that is your great thing this morning.  Isn’t that great?  You know what? Let me tell you what is going on great in my life, by the way, folks, is I hauled two kids off to school this morning, and I think they were both just about late.  We are talking about scratching the, oooo, the very edge.  One went over to Tonaquint Intermediate and another to Dixie Middle, and once upon a time they were four.  They were four years old. And there you have it.  We got up.  So but those guys, these two dudes and I actually, all four of the kids, we went up to Bryant Head this last weekend –

Chantry:  I was actually going to say they are probably bummed they were not going skiing today.

Jeremy: Yeah, they probably were.  They probably were.  Bryant Head missed the snow on this storm, but we were there this last weekend, and if anybody out there is thinking about getting up to the mountain, it is actually looking really, really good for this time of year.  I am shocked.  Salt Lake had 14 inches or something overnight.  I saw that.  But it is pretty good for December, I do not know what the day was, tenth.

Chantry:  When do Washington County Schools get out for the Christmas Break?

Jeremy:  So the kids will get out the Friday before Christmas which seems like it is the 21st or second.

Chantry:  So that would be a week from tomorrow?

Jeremy:  Yeah, the 21st. So a week from tomorrow. These kids are seven days left, and then they will have ten days off.  Look, it is the most wonderful time of the year.  The fun thing with Christmas break is that you are actually excited.  For all you parents out there, I think you know what I am talking about. It is actually exciting.  It is fun to have the kids home, and a lot of parents are off of work at least part of that time.  A little easier than summer.  Summer you are thinking, we have got a whole two months of this stuff, don’t we?  Now what am I supposed to do with these kids?

Chantry:  Right.

Jeremy:  And if you are working mom or a working dad –

Chantry:  Yeah, how do I deal with that?

Jeremy:  That gets really busy. Really, really busy. Here we are. We are all on our own plane with our kids and Mike has got his kids grown.  Mine are kind of in between and you have little, a little child.  And that is where we are at.  So Chantry and I are going to be talking about, this is exciting, okay.  It is funny that bad news is often exciting.  It is just so bizarre what is happening in some of these real estate markets.  Right?

Chantry:  Right. It is going to come as a surprise to most probably.  Right?

Jeremy:  Yeah, absolutely. So we are going to talk a little bit about what is going on in Dallas, Texas. Frisco, Texas.  By the way, Frisco, Texas, outside of St. George, fastest growing community in the United States of America.  And just crazy.  There is a Toyota plant there and jobs.  We are going to talk about what is happening with the real estate market.  And the teaser for our listeners out there: builders making hundred thousand and bigger dollar price reductions on their listings, offering real estate agents trips and travel all over the planet to sell their homes.  Some strange stuff going on out there.

Chantry: Yeah, the trip to Mexico caught my eye.

Jeremy:  Oh, is that what got you excited?  Did you want to move out there?

Chantry:  No, I will just take a trip there.  That is all.

Jeremy:  Actually I was just saying to Texas so you can start –

Chantry: I could sell some houses out there.

Jeremy:  So we are going to talk about what is going on with the real estate market and really the US housing boom coming to an end and what that means, and whether you should be alarmed, and whether St. George is next.  November was a very strange month for everyone in the real estate market, both in sales, real estate sales and in lending, that is what Chantry does.  He is with a company, Guild Mortgage, and they have worked with us for so long, at least coming up on a decade and do such amazing work. Of course, what they do is help people find the money they need to purchase a home.  And they have worked with, I do not know, certainly dozens and probably more like hundreds of our clients over the years.  Right?

Chantry:  Yeah, hundreds. Yeah.

Jeremy:  Hundreds of clients.

Chantry:  Families.

Jeremy: And you have been doing mortgage lending, I like to tell people home lending in a way because sometimes people out there in the public are like well, I do not.  Do you know what I mean?

Chantry: Yeah.

Jeremy:  But mortgages or loans for people purchasing homes for how many years?

Chantry:  It will be 13 when the calendar turns.

Jeremy:  Thirteen.

Chantry:  Crazy.  It was 2006.

Jeremy:  This is wild.  So let’s do some history.  So thirteen, 2006, 2008 is when they really say the bubble burst.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  So we are decade. We are having a ten-year anniversary, and we talked a little bit about this on our show last week.  So you read these articles –

Chantry:  That I did.

Jeremy:  — that I am talking about? Should I give folks the highlights?  Let me give you the headline for this article.  It is Bloomberg, and we will post this into the Facebook comments.  If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, you can catch us at Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin.  The way it sounds, J-E-R-E-M-Y, Larkin, L-A-R-K-I-N. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin.  We are streaming it live.  We stream it live every week and then we post this over to the Larkin Group Facebook page.  Of course, if you are listening to us on the radio, you are either on 890AM or 94.9FM.  So our Facebook listeners, if you want to get on the radio, you can hop to 94.9FM, 890AM.

Chantry:  If anybody wants to, I have got my phone.  I am going to see if there are any comments.  I just barely thought of it.

Jeremy:  Oh beautiful, beautiful.

Chantry:  So if anybody wants to comment on Facebook, we will answer the question.

Jeremy:  Yeah, I love this.  Yeah, if you guys have questions, specific questions for Chantry who is doing lending, specific questions for me. So let me give you the headline:  Free vacations, $100,000 discounts, home builders get desperate with hot markets cooling and mortgage rising the industry turns to incentives to boost sales. And of course, Bloomberg paints this in such a dramatic fashion, do they not?  A real estate broker in suburban Dallas is raking in freebies this year.  Trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming.  The home buyers he represents are cashing in, too.  They are winning price cuts of more than $100,000 on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds.  This feels a lot like, when you hear this, some stuff we saw here a long time ago.

Chantry:  Sure, yeah.

Jeremy:  Doesn’t it? It goes on to say the generosity flows from an increasingly desperate home builder market. Hot markets are cooling as fast as interest rises, and this is where they really throw the drama on here.  Some flare.  In the great housing slowdown of ’18, it is like they have added, they have created their own term, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach of many families.  Everyone is hungry for buyers, he says. What do you think, man?  When you see that, what are your thoughts?

Chantry:  So sure, has the market shifted a little bit?  Absolutely. Is that an extreme version of it?  Yeah, of course it is.

Jeremy:  For sure.

Chantry:  But anybody that follows the housing market, it is kind of interesting.  It has been very similar to the stock market. So those of you that follow the stock market have noticed some things have changed over the last couple of months, quite significantly. And we have noticed that in the real estate market. But it had to.  It was out of control.  This summer, all of us were looking at each other going there are no homes for sale.

Jeremy:  It was weird. It was ridiculous.

Chantry:  Buyers have no, buyers have no control. And it was not just prices that were that were crazy.  It was terms. It was like they could not ask for anything.  They had to close really fast.

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Chantry: They had to make offers sight unseen.  Just weird stuff that just is not really good for a buyer.

Jeremy:  No, it is not good for a buyer at all. And one of the challenges we have in real estate is anytime that the market turns to where one group has the serious upper hand, either a seller’s market or a buyer’s market, it is going to create weird dynamics.

Chantry:  Not good.  Yeah.

Jeremy:  And this is not good either.  What we are hearing about in Texas. Definitely, when Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal and, and, and start running articles saying that the housing market is coming to a massive halt in Dallas, it scares people.

Chantry:  Sure.

Jeremy: Right?

Chantry:  Yeah.  Especially what happened ten years ago.  We all think oh, can that happen again.

Jeremy:  Excuse me, yeah, there is just no question.  And we do sit here wondering what will happen?  Like coming up here, it is interesting.  It says, let’s talk about some things that are issues that slow the housing market down, and we will answer the question whether St. George is next.  Rising interest rates –

Chantry:  Yes.

Jeremy:  — and we are going to ask you specifically about that. Trump did a tax overhaul that caps the, places caps on tax deductions for mortgage interest.  That is an issue.  Right?

Chantry:  Sure.

Jeremy:  They are hurting really like high tax areas.  New York, massive high taxes that really hurts those people.  4,000 new condo units listed for sale, will be listed for sale in 2019 in Manhattan they said.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  In Manhattan.

Chantry: Wow.

Jeremy:  Not in New York City.  Right?

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  4,000 new condo units. You have got, okay, they talked about Austin and San Jose, California. Austin, Texas. San Jose, California. They have put, like immigration restrictions have kind of slowed down high-skilled workers coming into those markets. Some of these places are now less appealing to your Chinese buyers and your foreigners.  We do not see as much of that here.

Chantry:  Right.

Jeremy:  How often have you ever seen a foreign buyer try to get a mortgage?

Chantry:  It is really rare.  Occasionally we will get the Canadians because they love the warm weather here.

Jeremy:  Right.

Chantry:  Really honestly, some of them, it is the first warm place south.

Jeremy: Yeah.

Chantry:  So if you are heading south –

Jeremy:  It is.

Chantry:  — on I-15, boom, first warm place, really nice, great spot.

Jeremy: That is a great point.

Chantry:  So we get a little bit of that. But it does not drive our market by any means.

Jeremy:  No, not at all.

Chantry: But to your point, with the rising interest rates and home prices as we know just continued to go up and up and up, it is all about affordability.

Jeremy:  It is.

Chantry:  It really ends up being to a point where if prices get too high, rates go up, it is just not affordable anymore. So there has to be some sort of a shift back to normal.

Jeremy:  There absolutely does. So what you are saying is, from your perspective, this housing, the great housing slow down of 2018 is not a problem.

Chantry:  Yeah, let’s understand one big difference.

Jeremy:  Yeah, let’s do.

Chantry:  In 2006, do you remember the loan that they called the Stated Income/Stated Asset?

Jeremy:  Oh, for sure, I do.

Chantry:  Okay, so what this was was you are sitting across the desk from a mortgage guy and they say well, you need to make $10,000 a month, Mr. Schoolteacher. You make $10,000 –

Jeremy:  So what would he do?

Chantry:  — a month, correct?  Wink, wink.  And then all of a sudden, the deal is closed.  You did not have to document anything.  It was insane. There was no common sense, greed, crazy, stupid, whatever you want to call it.  Loans were getting done to people that just should never have gotten the loans.  Period. End of story.  And so, it made everything go out of control, and these people were doing it knowing that they could not afford the house payment. They just thought –

Jeremy:  Right.

Chantry:  They just thought if I do this, I can hang on for a year and then I will sell it and make all this money because my neighbor did that.

Jeremy:  right.  Right.

Chantry: And so let’s do that.  I know I cannot afford a $2500 house payment.  My neighbor just did it, and we can sell it in a year, and we can do it for a year.  Pull it out of our retirement.  That is what was going on.  See people were getting these loans they could never afford.  Ever.

Jeremy:  Not a chance.

Chantry: They never even thought –

Jeremy:  Not a chance.

Chantry: The people did not think they could afford them.  So now the total difference is loans are tough.  Loans are, it is hard to get a loan.  People that get a loan, by the end of it, they are tired of all these rules and giving us pay stub after pay stub and bank statement after bank statement and all this stuff we have to dig into, and absolutely the whole point of it is to make sure the mortgage industry feels like this person can actually afford this house payment.

Jeremy:  Well, right.  You need to make $10,000.  You know it is funny you ask that because I happen to be making $10,000.

Chantry:  Oh, that is weird timing, right?

Jeremy:  Actually, it is 12,000.  Well it is funny you would say that because I just got a text from my boss.  My income was raised.

Chantry:  Yeah, exactly.  Right.

Jeremy: It is like this is incredible. Right?  It is amazing how everybody seemed to have the qualifications during that time to do this. Right?

Chantry:  You did not have to get anything. It was just whatever you said, get a loan.

Jeremy: Well, okay, so the big difference now, that Chantry is saying, we have got Chantry Abbott here with Guild Mortgage here in St. George, we are talking about the great housing slow down.  I love this term.  I think I am going to run with it.   That Bloomberg News has put out of 2018 and we shared, if you just picked up the show, the fact that, and good morning to everybody on Facebook, and good morning to all of our listeners.  Thank you so much for your support.  Talking about the fact that in some of these housing markets it is slowing down.  So we saw massive, they are giving away vacations and crazy incentives and free media rooms and free upgrades and free cabinetry.  And they are giving away, they are reducing prices a hundred to two thousand dollars on these expensive homes by the way. Just to be clear, Chantry, I think people need to understand this.  They are reducing the price of seven to hundred million dollar homes by a hundred thousand dollars.

Chantry:  Right, yeah.  It sounds really –

Jeremy:  These are not $300,000 homes.

Chantry: A $3,000,000 house had $100,000 reduction.

Jeremy: Yeah, so let’s be clear.  However, what Chantry is saying here is that the difference between ten years ago as the housing market kind of catches up to itself, is that people are actually qualifying for the loans, aren’t they?

Chantry:  I have not done a loan since 2008 that was not like extreme documentation of being able to make the payment.  It has happened. People still have stuff happen in their life, and they are going to have short sales or foreclosures or fire sales.  I have to get rid of the house.  For the most part, these people are affording their payment barring a catastrophe, and that was not the case then. So that is where, sure, are we going to have a slowdown? Yeah, we needed it. We needed it.

Jeremy: Yeah.

Chantry:  It was a bummer for homebuyers.  There was not anything for sale. It was a little bit out of control, and I do not even necessarily mean prices were out of control. I just mean there were not enough, you sit down with a buyer and you go here are the two homes that are available. Which one do you want to buy? The seller has all the control in that situation, and that is just not good.

Jeremy:  It is not good at all.  And the sellers are like this is great. So, let’s put this in perspective for our local people. I have a comment.  I have an observation and a question.  Let’s start with the question. The prevailing 30-year interest rate today if I went to get a mortgage is what?

Chantry: About four and three-quarters.

Jeremy:  Okay, so it is four and three-quarters percent to get a home mortgage today, typically. Assuming fair credit and all that stuff, good credit.  Okay.

Chantry:  Somewhere in there 5% —

Jeremy:  Good credit, by the way, we are not talking 800.  Just thinking if you have got 700 –

Chantry:  Four and three-quarters, 5%, whatever.

Jeremy:  Okay.  Yep. What is the average interest rate that people have paid since they started tracking interest rates to borrow money for a home?

Chantry: Great question. So the mortgage industry as we know it, Fannie Mae and FHA, and it has been around since the 1950s we will say.

Jeremy:  Okay.

Chantry:  It is a little over 8% is the average rate over that timeframe to current.  And that is taking in current day when they have been crazy low, which is throwing the average off, right?

Jeremy:  This is crazy.

Chantry:  So the government made interest rates lower than they should have.  Even counting that, the average is still over 8%.

Jeremy:  This is, okay, this is going to be fun.  Typical person comes in your office today and wants to buy a $300,000 home, which is the average home in St. George right now.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  It is actually 330, 340, but I am going to say 300, okay, because I think the average is skewed because of higher –

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy: Really is 300.

Chantry:  Take out the extremes.

Jeremy:  Yeah, the stuff that people are really affording.  If they buy a $300,000 home, your typical client, just no specifics, what is their payment? Like the typical payment?  What is the most average payment you send out of your office?

Chantry:  $15-1800.

Jeremy:  Okay, so let’s call it $1650 a month.  So the average mortgage payment that someone is coming out of Chantry Abbott’s office, Guild Mortgage, when they go in there and they hire them to help them get a loan, it is $1650.  Chant, just for fun, and I am putting you on the spot, if interest rates went from 4 ¾ to 8%. Today we are 4 ¾.  Eight is the historical average.  If they went up by 3 ¼ points, what would that payment 1650 be?  Just as a guess.

Chantry: I will do the math, but I am going to say about $400 a month higher, probably over two grand.  At least probably.

Jeremy:  So we are four –

Chantry:  I am going to do the math.

Jeremy:  He is going to do the math.  He is going to do some math. So let me put this in perspective as he playing around here.  He is actually just making his move on whatever, what is the game that everybody plays?  It is almost like Scrabble that they are playing with their friends.

Chantry:  Oh yeah.  Words –

Jeremy:  Words with Friends.  He just needs to make a move on Words with Friends and he will be back on. If interest rates right now, because we are going to tie this in, because we started the show by saying that the housing market is falling apart in Texas.  I do not know if it is falling apart, but wow, it has kind of shut off overnight.  If you read the article I linked in on Facebook to Bloomberg, you will be fascinated at the way it reads.  If rate were today at the historical average interest rates for you to buy a home, your payment would go up by an average of $400 for the typical homebuyer. From 4 ¾% what is the number?

Chantry:  It is about 500 actually.

Jeremy:  Five hundred.  Okay.  This is even better. Thank you for adding some excitement.

Chantry:  So about a 3% difference on that scenario is almost $500 a month.

Jeremy:  So it is very simple where we are going with this. So the question is what are rates?  4 ¾%. The simple point is that this is absolutely a time that is still a great time to be buying a home.  Now, here is the observation I wanted to make.  We are seeing the For Sale By Owner sign go up everywhere in Washington County –

Chantry:  Right.

Jeremy:  — in the last 30 days.

Chatnry:  It is easy.  Let’s just sell it on our own.  Right.

Jeremy:  Have we noticed historically, gang, that consumers are always six months behind every trend?

Chantry:  Yeah, yeah.

Jeremy:  We are always six months behind.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy: Now here is the reality –

Chantry:  We all know that guy.  Oh, my buddy made a bunch of money in the stock market.  I am going to hurry and jump in. It is like you missed it.

Jeremy:  Yeah, you missed it.  Right?  So what is going to happen with most of these people selling their home by owner, and I have to be very honest about this, we are needing to reduce the price of most MLS listings right now to get to them in line with what the market is really supporting, and we have talked about this for a month because sellers have been asking more than the market would support.  Values are not really going down.

Chantry:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  Right?  In St. George.  People have simply been asking more than the market will support.

Chantry: Well, what people do and I think this is where you are getting is their house is realistically worth 300, but they think, you know what, I have heard it is crazy.

Jeremy:  I will do it at 325.

Chantry: There is nothing out there.  Maybe we put our house up for sale for 330 and see if we get it.  And if we get it, really cool, let’s sell it.

Jeremy:  You know what?  Let’s just go 600 and see what we get.  Okay, but they are not going that crazy.

Chantry:  Let’s just put it up for sale at 330, 350, and we get that.  Cool, we will sell.

Jeremy:  Right.

Chantry: And that is not what is going to happen now.

Jeremy:  Right. So the For Sale by Owner, where every professionally marketed agent listed is being reduced, most of the For Sale By Owners are not going to have success right now, and it is going to be hard, and that is going to be frustrating.

Chantry:  Every time I do a mortgage and there is a For Sale By Owner, the buyer thinks he is going to get a deal.  There is no real estate commission, so I am going to offer him super low.

Jeremy:  The buyer wants the deal.  So folks, if you want to reach out to Chantry Abbott at Guild Mortgage, 674-1090?

Chantry:  Yes.

Jeremy:  Best number, 674-1090, and Mike will give you our contact information.  Have an amazing week.  Get your Christmas shopping done and check out the article we linked on Facebook about free vacations for realtors in Texas.  No free vacations here that I have seen.

Chantry:  There is one for Mexico, I think.  I do not know when that was.

Jeremy:  Okay.  All right, man.

Mike:  (Indiscernible)

Jeremy:  There is a dude ranch vacation.

Mike:  Dude. All right. You have been listening to St. George Real Estate Morning Drive.  For information, call 275-1690 or find them online, Sold in St. George dot com.