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Is Zillow.com your FRIEND or FOE? (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Radio Show)

 

On this week’s show Jeremy Larkin and Jesse Poll of The Larkin Group at KW Realty discuss Zillow.com. The fact that Zillow is here to stay, consumers (want) to trust them, and how to determine if they’re your friend or foe when buying and selling real estate!

Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com.

Andy: We are still doing the technical part of things.
Jesse: Yeah, I was having some technical issues here this morning.
Jeremy: We were.
Andy: That is always an issue –
Jesse: All of the above.
Andy: We have got all the, like in this room, if we count our phones, we have like nine computers in this room. There is a laptop. There is like three desktops. We have three phones in the room. I think we are going to be streaming on Facebook Live. All kinds of things. Right, guys?
Jeremy: I actually just hung up with NASA and they have their super computer headed here on an 18-wheeler. So we are going to get that set up shortly, and your mind is really going to be blown.
Andy: Yeah, looking forward to that.
Jeremy: That is not bad, is it? Jesse, can I trust Zillow for my home value? Can we answer that question today?Andy: KDXU news time. 8:35. Welcome to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. We have really just one issue right now and Jeremy Larkin is not in the house yet. I think he is in the house. He is not in the room yet. But we will get things started and start talking about St. George Real Estate. A lot on the mind and what are your thoughts as we get things going early with Jeremy in the other part of the building? You got any ideas for me? He is still working on the technical side of things. Maybe we will keep the music going a little bit longer. If you are in the real estate market, you ought to check in with the Keller Williams team, or the Jeremy Larkin team under the umbrella of Keller Williams Realty, and it is a great time of the year to make that move to maybe your dream house. Or maybe you want to downsize if you are in a situation where perhaps your house is too big. That is kind of where I am at right now. I had raised five kids, but I have got this big old house and only two of the kids are left. So I start thinking about things like downsizing and changing the situation in my household. These are the kind of things that you think about. Dream house. Maybe you want a pool. Maybe you want a pickle ball court in your backyard. Whatever it might be. This is a great time again to contact the Jeremy Larkin Group at Keller Williams Realty. He just made it in the house, so that makes me a lot happier. I do not have to sit here and filibuster a little bit while we wait for Jeremy Larkin to join us. He is here somewhere, and he is looking rather dapper by the way as well. You ready to talk a little bit, guys?
Jesse: Yes, sir. You have got to push play on the other one, too.
Jeremy: Oh my gosh.

Andy: Oh, that is a good question.
Jesse: Yeah, we can.
Jeremy: Yeah, can we?
Jesse: Well, it is actually –
Jeremy: We can answer the question or can we trust Zillow?
Jesse: Well, I do not think you can trust Zillow without doing a lot of homework because they do not know, they do not have access to the real closed data and they do not know what your home looks like or has or anything. I can give you some good examples of that, if you would like.
Jeremy: I would love to hear. No, the listeners want to hear.
Jesse: We just saw a home over in the Legacy the other day, and Zillow says that it is a 4-bedroom, 8-bathroom –
Andy: Eight bathrooms?
Jesse: — so I know for a fact that this home has got three bathrooms.
Jeremy: Ah, the old eight-bathroom home. We know everybody loves that one.
Jesse: So chances are they are giving them probably four grand each for one of those bathrooms, so if they have got five extras, that is what? $20,000 extra that they are getting for their home value or their Zestimate?
Jeremy: Yeah, it is crazy. It is crazy, which is insane, right?
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: Which is insane. So I had somebody yesterday reach out to us and they said hey, I want to look at my Zillow home value. What do you think my home is worth in Bountiful? I said is your home 2700 feet? They said yeah, the main floor is 2700 feet. What do you think happened, Jesse? What do you think was missing?
Jesse: Their basement because in the state of Utah it counts basements differently and Zillow cannot track that.
Jeremy: Yeah, imagine that. Imagine that, Andy, you go on to Zillow dot com thinking of hey, I am going to find out what my home’s value is. I am just going to go ahead because I heard that Zillow, I saw these Zillow ads, and the Zillow ads are so lovely. They feature these families that are doing great family things like making pancakes. We saw one. We are going to talk about making unicorn pancakes, and we are going to talk about an instant offer program today. And you go on there thinking well, I will see what Zillow says my home is worth, but here is the problem. Zillow only, if you have a basement, they do not show it.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: They do not show it. Jesse, what would that mean to a consumer? Value-wise.
Jesse: Oh quite a bit. Probably half as, so on a basement, you will get about 40% more, less value than you will on your main level, so you may be missing 30-40% in your Zestimate value.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Andy: That is a lot of money.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: It is a ton.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: It is a ton. All right, guys. We are going to do Facebook Live here.
Jesse: We are getting our technical difficulties situated.
Jeremy: We have got it figured out. We had to reboot the system. So just envision, for our listeners out there, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, and I drove and it was morning and it is beautiful out there. But you are talking about you could be missing 50 to 100 grand.
Jesse: You could. Definitely.
Jeremy: Right?
Jeremy: And vice-a versa. It could be over. For a good instance is that bathroom. Their Zestimate is probably is $30,000 over what it should be.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah.
Jesse: What it would sell for in the market.
Jeremy: Absolutely. This is an issue, and we just went Facebook Live, so if you want to watch this morning on Facebook, Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts. Check it out. Actually, you know what? I lied. We are actually Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin.
Jesse: It is on your personal page.
Jeremy: Yeah, I apologize. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. We want to answer some of the most typically asked questions that we see in real estate, and the first one is can I trust Zillow for my home value? Now, Zillow is up to something else, Jesse, which is their Instant Offer program. What are they doing?
Jesse: They are going in to markets, and they will actually give you an offer for your home. It is right there. Hang in there. So they will give you an offer for your home and buy it.
Andy: Zillow will?
Jesse: Yeah, they will.
Andy: Really?
Jesse: And then they will turn around and sell it for market value. So that is a good thing to keep in mind that they are actually going to turn around and sell it so that the chances that you are getting market value for that home are slim and one.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are slim and none, not slim to none. Thank you. So there is a video that I watched yesterday. I guess it was released to YouTube. Zillow dot com slash offers, and here is the fun part. Here is the great part. So many real estate agents love to hate Zillow. They love to hate Zillow because Zillow, of course, is trying to take the real estate agent out of the process very subtly. So instead of running from it, we are just going to talk about it on the program this morning. So Zillow dot com slash offers, if you would like to see what that looks like. People are going to find it anyway.
Andy: Grab the bull by the horns, right, Jeremy?
Jeremy: Yeah, here is the issue. Zillow is going to make you an offer, an instant offer, online, without ever having seen your home. The offer will be subject then to them sending in a real estate professional appraiser inspector and deciding what they really want to pay for it. Okay? So first of all, Andy, if they come in and offer your $400,000 for your home it does not mean they are buying your home.
Andy: Right.
Jeremy: Right. There will be tons of fine print that says oh, that is subject to this. So here is the fun part. We saw that Zillow was doing it. What do you think we started doing? We said we have got an instant offer program. And the reality is we have an instant offer program. So if you visit Sold in St. George dot com, Sold in St. George dot com, you will see a big old button that says instant offer.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Now here is one of the challenges. So Zillow is doing this. Who else is doing that? IBuyer?
Jesse: IBuyer. Purple Door.
Jeremy: Purple door. So here is what is happening. They are coming in. They are making an offer, and then they are charging a buyer’s premium of some kind which is like 3-5% of the purchase price. Right? There is no commission, air quotes.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: Good morning all of our Facebook Live viewers. If you have got questions, we want you to ask them. But they are going in, hey, Andy you should vote for us for Best of Southern Utah. Right there. It is right on your screen. Just two clicks, man. Two clicks.
Andy: I have got to do it now. Yep.
Jeremy: So I was just watching it with Best of Southern Utah. So they come in and they make an offer sight unseen, which is subject to them actually inspecting it and deciding if they want to buy it. And then they charge this strange fee, this strange buyer premium fee, which is just wacked out. Right? So the next thing you know you think are getting 400, but the reality is you are actually getting 360. Let’s flip this on its head. We can bring a local investor in right now from St. George who will make an offer to buy your property, close in seven days, cash, with no strange strings attached. Really simple. They will buy your home. It will sell for blank. You will get blank if they buy it cash. Or we can put it on the market, distribute this thing to every single real estate agent on the planet. Zillow dot com included, smile and a wink. Trulia dot com. Homes dot com. Realtor dot com, all these websites, and we can sell it at market. By they way, in most cases, you will get more selling your home at market. But here is what they do on the Zillow offer ad. They show this dad in the kitchen, and he is really having a good time. He is making pancakes. And then you see he is trying to make a shaped pancake, and it says, excuse me, making unicorn pancakes is hard. And the music plays. But you know what is easy? Selling your home. And he is sitting there and bing, bing, bing, bing. His phone bings, and he is in his apron and he is talking to his child and he looks over and it says you have an offer from Zillow. 365. He goes oh. I hope our listeners can see. Do you see the face? It is the raised eyebrow look. Like hmmm, well that is interesting. Let me finish making these pancakes. So easy. Like hey, just pack up your belongings and they will be here tomorrow. But that is not real. That is actually not real. You have to understand that. So we want to go straight to our consumers here in Washington County and say look, if you want an instant offer, we will make you an instant offer.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Literally right now. We have an investment group who will purchase your home cash. Let’s talk pros and cons. So the pros are you sell your home in seven days, if you want to sell it in seven days. You could sell it in 45 or 90.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: The investors are real flexible that way. But if you wanted to be out in seven days, if all the boxes are checked and things work out, then it could close in seven days cash. It is a cash deal. It is not contingent on an appraisal. It is not contingent on a loan. Right? And you do not have to prepare. You do not have to stage. You do not have to make beds. All those things. Now here is the flip side. That is what Zillow is trying to get people to do. Hey, look how easy it is. But see the difference is we are not going to pitch to you that it is just so much easier that you should do it. No, no, no, no.
Jesse: Well, in any part of our life, convenience comes with a cost. It always will.
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: It always will.
Jeremy: Right. So we would not propose to you that you should be doing this because it is easy. You should be doing this because for some reason it makes sense that you have got to get out of there fast.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Otherwise, we will take your home. We will put it on the market. You will have to do some work. We will require you to do some work because you are going to say to me I want the most money for my home.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And I am going to say well, if you want the most money, then you have to do the most prep work –
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — which we are going to guide you. We are going to hold your hand. We are going to walk you down the road. We are going to schedule all the showings with you. Yeah, you are going to need to make the beds. You are going to need to close the toilet lid. All that kind of jazz. If you have got dirty clothes on the floor, you had better just kick them under the bed. I do not know what to tell you. Those things are going to have to happen, and it is going to be a nightmare in some ways, but you probably will not be sad if you get the money at closing.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: So just be aware. Just be aware that these groups, Zillow is a big, massive entity. It is a behemoth, and they are a company that is actually running no profit. So it is one of these strange Wall Street things. They are running no profit, but they are multi-billion-dollar corporation, and their goal is to set themselves up as kind of the replacement to the real estate agent, and eventually just have the whole entire thing. So look, people are going to go there. They are going to go to Zillow dot com, look for a Zestimate. Here is what I would say. Go get your Zestimate at Zillow dot com, and then call us and say I got a Zestimate. Can you please produce a courtesy, right, free of charge market analysis for my property, and let me know what you believe it will sell for on the open market? And then we do that and then you have the real information. Then you can compare the Zillow Zestimate against our information. And if you are paying close attention you will notice that they skipped your basement. Right? So kind of crazy. I just think that people need to be aware of that. That we are not trying to get people off of there. They are on there. Good grief.
Jesse: Well, you are never going to get them off of there.
Jeremy: 20% of our clients came to us last year from Zillow. Right? Wasn’t it 20%?
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: 20% of our clients actually contact us through Zillow. Hey, it is what it is. But buyer beware. Right. This instant offer, the Zillow dot com slash offers thing, you are dealing with a corporation. You could just be dealing with someone right here and get all of your options. Right? And of course, their goal is it seems so easy. You do not even call an agent. You just go oh man, this seems easy. I was making unicorn pancakes for my child, and I got an offer on my phone. I should just get out of here. Right? The rest, as they say, is history. If you would like to see what we are doing with Instant Offers, visit Sold in St. George dot com slash or just Sold in St. George dot com. The Instant Offer button will hit you in the face. Have you voted for Best of Southern Utah today, Jesse?
Jesse: Not yet.
Jeremy: Andy did.
Andy: I just did.
Jesse: Because you have to wait 24 hours.
Jeremy: No, you do not have to wait 24 hours.
Jesse: Oh yeah. It will not let me do it unless it is the next 24 hours.
Jeremy: Oh no.
Andy: So he voted yesterday is what he is saying.
Jeremy: It should not be 24 hours. It should just be 12:01am. I do not know.
Jesse: Oh really?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Because the other day it would not let me because I had just voted at like ten o’clock the night before.
Jeremy: Oh just come back once per day. That is what they tell me. I just voted. Folks, visit, if you visit the Best of Southern Utah, we are, over at the Larkin Group, our real estate team, we are aiming to win that title. Some of you saw a Facebook video I posted last week. It was me with my high school yearbook.
Jesse: I was telling my wife this morning that, because she asked me if I could do a Miami Vice pose, and I told her, you know I was voted the most likely to be the next Don Johnson.
Jeremy: Dude. I so believe it.
Jesse: That is the only title I ever got.
Jeremy: I so believe it. At every level I believe it. But if you visit Sold in St. George dot com, we made it easy. You can vote for us right through that page, and yes, cast a vote. It is Jeremy Larkin for Best Realtor and Larkin Group for Best Real Estate team. I have the very best people in Washington County working with me, and there you have it. Whose phone is buzzing?
Jesse: Yours probably.
Jeremy: I do not know. That is kind of weird. Some thing is buzzing. It is in my ears.
Andy: Not mine.
Jeremy: Man, this is weird. All right, Jesse. Should we talk about a couple other questions that these guys are, that these folks out there are asking?
Jesse: We can, but I am going to depend on you because my laptop died.
Jeremy: Did it die?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Oh man. So this is going to be really good. So we talked about answering the best questions, the questions here in Southern Utah that people have been asking. These questions from our 2019 Parade of Homes survey. And many of you will remember that we created a survey and asked folks questions about the market and just to find out what they were doing and then we turned around and we had about 140 people respond to our survey, maybe 150. Okay, what about, Jesse, are there good options for young couples who just graduated college? I am going to qualify that because it does not have to be just graduated college, but let’s call it young couples, just graduated college. Let’s guess that these are couples that are in their like 22-25 years old range. Okay? Are there good options? Is buying a house a good idea at this stage in life? What do you think?
Jesse: I think it is because you can step into a starter home and start building equity, start building your life, and it will help you think differently. It really does. The home ownership is almost like the next step in life. It is like having a kid. It just changes your life.
Jeremy: Is there any reason, and we will back into this, are there good options? Is there any reason that they wouldn’t buy a home at this stage in their life? What would be good reasons to not purchase a home at early 20’s, graduated from college?
Jesse: If you are not really sure you are going to be here say two years –
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: — then it does not make sense at all because if you end up having to sell that you will end up possibly paying capital gains and that could hurt you.
Jeremy: Bingo. Yeah. Absolutely, so a lot of these couples, they are not permanent here.
Jesse: It just depends on what are you doing.
Jeremy: Yeah, at least two years, and Jesse says at least two years because if you stay in a home, sell a home less than 24 months after you purchase it, you are going to be paying what is called capital gains taxes.
Jesse: And there is no way around that.
Jeremy: No. There is no way around it at all. But let’s take this a step further. How long should people really be in their home? Like if we want to wait out a real estate cycle, what are you thinking?
Jesse: Five to ten years.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: Because every cycle for the last what, 70 years has been up and down every ten years. Five up, five down.
Jeremy: Absolutely.
Jesse: Five up, five down.
Jeremy: Absolutely. There is no question. Right?
Jesse: But let’s kind of hit on that. So with that said, we are probably in the height of a market, and does that really mean that they wait? I do not know that it does. If it makes sense to buy a home.
Jeremy: Okay, let’s pretend that I am young couple. Okay?
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: Just graduated from college. Maybe have a baby or two, maybe do not have any.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: I buy a home, but there is a concern that in the next two to three years that my wife, let’s say, or if somebody says their husband, one of us might get a nursing position in Salt Lake City, and we might leave.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: But we really want to own a home right now. So what is going to happen when we go to leave? Do we have to sell it?
Jesse: No, you could actually make sure that you buy one where you could possibly rent it.
Jeremy: He is following my cues real nice.
Jesse: Okay, so in that case, and as long as you have lived in a home the last two of five years, it is not technically an investment property –
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: — so you could still wait out a market and sell it say five years from now and be safe.
Jeremy: So you are saying my monthly mortgage payment is $1400 a month. I could theoretically rent that home for $1400 a month. Or fifteen.
Jesse: You would have to check on that, but possibly yes.
Jeremy: You would want to do some research.
Jesse: You can either definitely offset the rent or get all of the mortgage paid with the rent. That is a good possibility, but I would make sure that you prepare, think about that first.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: Because you do not want to have to have the money in the bank or –
Jeremy: What are options though? For these young people, what are the options? And for my team out there who are watching and listening, what are the options?
Jesse: There are plenty of options, but you really have to do your homework and you have to be quick on the draw. Because a young couple is probably going to be under $300,000.
Jeremy: And maybe under?
Jesse: Under 250, which is really a tough market still even though we are getting more inventory. My biased opinion is you have to have a good agent that has feet on the ground for you and is really looking because the homes that are the best value that are the right homes are selling so fast you do not see them.
Jeremy: They are gone.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: They are gone. So a couple of things. So there are some options.
Jesse: There are.
Jeremy: But, Jesse, I can only afford a $2500 car. There are no options for me. There are.
Jesse: There are.
Jeremy: It is just I had better set my expectations –
Jesse: Yeah, look where the expectations are.
Jeremy: And this is the same thing. And where I am going with this, right, Andy, do you have adult children? How old is your youngest?
Andy: My youngest is 15. My oldest is 27.
Jeremy: Are they homeowners?
Andy: My oldest is, yes.
Jeremy: The reason I ask you that is you have kids that you could counsel. I do not quite have a child buying a home yet. But do you think that the expectations of young people today, because of the wealth that has been enjoyed the last 30 years are different than the young people 30 years ago?
Andy: Yeah, I think so. We did not dream of buying a home at 21 years old. There is no way.
Jeremy: And the reason I say this is by the way there has been such a beating up of millennials and Gen Y and this, that, and the other. These kids are terrible. Here is the deal. We are all just a product of our upbringing. So these kids do not even know what it was like because we did not have the internet. Well, of course, they do not know. There is no reason to assault people because they grew up when they did. Just the reality is that there is so much wealth right now. Right? And when you were 21 years old, it was like man, if people could get into a 1000 square foot, two-bedroom, no bath, young and married, especially my parents, who are older, who are 78, for them to own an 800-square-foot something was like a dream.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Yet what is the perception now, Jesse? I drive down there to Little Valley and what do I want?
Jesse: You want that $400,000 house.
Jeremy: I want a $400,000 home.
Jesse: And also the perception a lot of times is I will just wait for the market to come back down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah.
Jesse: But what they do not think about is when that market comes back down, it most likely will be interest-rate driven. That $400,000 house that probably is not going to go down by $100,000.
Jeremy: No.
Jesse: We are not going to see a crash.
Jeremy: That is not happening right now.
Jesse: But that $375,000 house is now more like a $425,000 house because the interest rate has just went up.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So have you shot yourself in the foot by not really thinking that through?
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: I think that is what we are going to see.
Jeremy: Keith asked a question. Let’s just segue there. Are home prices up right now in St. George or has higher interest rates stopped any increase in prices? Well
Jesse: They are still up.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are still up. They are still up. Are they going up? No. They are not currently going up in Washington County. Maybe in a pocket here or there. I just listed a Coral Springs condo, which is going to be kind of interesting. We will be listing it for $309,900.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: Interestingly, there are three that just closed at 290, 295, and there are two under contract above 300.
Jesse: That is crazy because you know three years ago when we talked to him –
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: — that was 250.
Jeremy: 250.
Jesse: Holy moly.
Jeremy: So here is a pocket and the pocket is this. They are selling homes, like they are vacation rentals. Remember we talked about nightly, weekly rentals. They can be a vacation rental. Well, they are selling Coral Springs for say $300,000, 310. Across the street, literally across the street, Cole West is building new vacation rentals for 500.
Jesse: Four to five hundred. Yeah.
Jeremy: So, what you have is a little micro-pocket there where the buyers look at them and go oh, well, gosh, I would love to buy a $500,000 vacation rental and then they would walk across the street and say I guess I will buy one that was built in 2007.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: And 2007, it is the big rock fireplaces and the dark trim and the
Jesse: They are pretty cool.
Jeremy: — dark doors. Yeah, they are really cool. It is just a different style, and so some folks just say I will just take that style and I will paint it. Right? So folks, if you have not done so yet, we would ask please if you will vote for us. Sold in St. George dot com and cast your vote. That will pop up. Vote for the Larkin Group. Jeremy Larkin. Best in Southern Utah. Jesse, thanks for being on and handling things as we were having techno difficulties.
Jesse: Sorry for the technical difficulties.
Jeremy: We got it, man. We are off to the races. Have a great week.
Andy: Thanks, guys.

 

 

Is St. George Over-building Vacation Rentals? Real Estate Radio w/guests Ty & Pam Isham (St. George Real Estate Radio Show)

Today, Jeremy Larkin brings guests Ty and Pam Isham of My2ndHomeVacay.com to talk about the Vacation Rental boom in Southern Utah! The Ishams manage dozens of nightly/weekly rentals, interface with the owners and of course, would-be buyers of these properties. Tons of amazing info on the market, enjoy!

Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com.

Andy: 8:35 on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU. Every Thursday we get a little taste of St. George Real Estate. It is the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy, take it away.
Jeremy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, ladies and germs. Ladies and germs, right, Tai? Tai is in the background. He can yell. Hey, I have got some fun guests here today by the way. I like to go with the lady’s name first, which is Pam.
Pam: Hi, good morning.
Jeremy: Yeah, and Tai Eisham. And on the Facebook Live you are going to like this because we always put a title. And I said this morning, let me pull it up, guys. If you are not watching Facebook Live, you had better be. So you can listen to this show 94.9 FM, 890 AM, Facebook Live, YouTube Live, shoot, man, I think we might even have just the government downloading it straight into your brain. When we figure that out. I said Pam –
Jesse: If you pay them enough money, they might.
Jeremy: Yeah, I said how cool is that and a glass of milk?
Pam: And a glass of milk.
Jeremy: Yeah, like how cool is that? So we are going to have Pam on momentarily after we listen to ourselves talk. Right, Jesse?
Jesse: You love to listen to yourself talk, that is for sure.
Jeremy: That is why I started a radio show. Let me go ahead and do something. Guys, I am going to do something live on the air. I am going to encourage you to do the same. I am going over to, I am letting my fingers do the walking. Who remembers that? Who remembers what company that was? It was one of the phone companies, but which one was it?
Jesse: I cannot remember.
Jeremy: Let your fingers do the walking?
Pam: AT&T?
Jeremy: Was it?
Pam: Was it?
Jesse: I cannot remember.
Jeremy: Okay. Let your fingers, Yellow Pages. It is just Yellow Pages. Let your fingers do the walking.
Jesse: I was going to say that but then you said phone company, and I am like phone company, they are not a phone company.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Hey, Jess, kick that door because we have got guys, I think, they are having a drunken party down at Devin Dixon’s office on the ESPN radio right now, which is really early for those guys to start drinking. Right? 8:37. Thank you. Guys, visit Sold in St. George dot com. Jesse, will you tell them what you are doing by the way?
Jesse: This is so exciting.
Jeremy: I am going to cast my own vote for myself right now, for us.
Jesse: We are going to do that. So we actually have been nominated for the Best of Southern Utah, the Larkin Group. Actually twofold, Jeremy and the Larkin Group.
Jeremy: Best Realtor and Best Real Estate Team.
Jesse: So we would love your help in that. Jeremy posted that thing the other day that said the last time I won anything was in high school.
Jeremy: It was the Class of 1993 yearbook, and I hope, I hope some of the people that I care about are watching right now. It was when I won Biggest Comedian for the Preference, ’93 Preference. Okay? No, Andy, it is real. Go to Facebook, man.
Jesse: He did. In all seriousness, if you know who the Larkin Group is and you know who we are, we are all about trying to do the right thing and be the best that we can be. So if you have done business with us or if you love what we deliver and the value that we give, we would love the opportunity to win that contest.
Jeremy: Thank you, man, for that description. So you just visit Sold in St. George dot com and the way that we rigged out website, it is so fun. It pops right in front of you and says vote here. And here is the cool part. Two clicks. You click it opens. You click, you voted. There is no email. No phone. No nothing. It is one of the most killer platforms. I did not build it. Another media company in town did, a competitor. So please vote for us over at Sold in St. George, Sold in St. George dot com. You can actually vote every day until March 15th. I know we will not count on that for most of our listeners, will we now? Will we now? Thank you, Robert for posting that. Morning to our listeners, viewers, watchers. I have always wanted to start a watch party. Can we try that sometime? Let’s start a watch party.
Jesse: A watch party?
Jeremy: I do not know.
Jesse: Is that on Facebook?
Jeremy: It is on Facebook. Guys, momentarily, we are going to have Pam Eisham on, and Pam and Tai, they manage short-term weekly rentals. Some of you might have heard on Tuesday I landed here with Andy in the, whew he is giving me the thumbs up, I landed very last minute on the Open Mic Show and we talked about vacation rentals and short-term rentals. I wanted to give you a teaser, okay? Because yesterday she asked so responsibly what questions, and here are the questions I asked her that we are going to talk about today. Thirty seconds, what do you do? In one minute or less, how did you get into the business? How many units, vacation rentals do you manage? Who are your clients? Who are the people who buy vacation rentals and need them managed? What kind of income do they bring? How much money can they make? What are the biggest concerns owners of vacation rentals have? What does it cost to have it managed? What is the biggest challenge you face managing short-term rentals? How does someone contact you? And what is your general opinion of the short-term market? This is like, and I have said this on the air, this is the news at 10:01. They go hey, stay tuned for the most important story, which will be on at 10:29PM at the very end of the broadcast. But we will not go that long. So momentarily we will have Pam on, but I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got Jesse Poll here, who has really become, he has become my co-host.
Jesse: That is right.
Jeremy: Andy Griffin, we took his microphone and headset away as part of a punishment. He is in a timeout this morning. He has got his headset. We just took his microphone away. And if you will please cast your vote over at Sold in St. George dot com for the Best of Southern Utah. And I would be curious, see, I am trying to track, do you know what I did. I created a Google document yesterday with all of my favorites companies that I am voting for, and I am actually voting for daily. Literally. I have my own list.
Jesse: So where do you go to find the whole list of all the companies in the different categories?
Jeremy: So, this is perfect. So if you want to go over to Best of Southern Utah dot com. Best of Southern Utah dot com.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: And you can vote. My gosh, you can vote for just about anything. I think there were 900 companies nominated in I do not know how many categories.
Jesse: (Indiscernible)
Jeremy: I do not know.
Jesse: I am going to go look at that.
Jeremy: Yeah. Let’s talk about short-term rentals.
Pam: Talk about short-term rentals.
Jeremy: Let’s do it. So I have got Pam here. She is lovely. I have Tai just lurking in the shadows, probably like he has done most of their marriage. I do not know. Is this a metaphor? Is this a metaphor? He is back there. He is sckulking around. I love it. I love that he is in the studio. I have Pam Eishman. And Pam and Tia are actually past clients of ours –
Pam: Yeah.
Jeremy: — that we have worked with in the real estate world. So thank you for, I always say, helping us feed our families because literally you did and you do and you guys have referred us business, and we are working on referring you business now.
Pam: Yep.
Jeremy: Which is going to be awesome. So, give us a 30-second synopsis like we talked about earlier. What is your company and what do you guys do?
Pam: Yeah, essentially what is our company? So we are vacation rental management company. But then I thought hard about what do we do, right? So what we do is we provide great experiences for our owners and our guests. It is our ultimate goal that people build memories when they are with us. Right?
Jeremy: Absolutely.
Pam: People come to our area for many things, and what we want them to do is be able to come and put their feet up when they come into one of our units and feel like they have just come home. It is their second home. It is a place to kick back and have all those comforts.
Jeremy: It really is. When I was on Tuesday, I actually relistened to the show. Andy, it was funny. Yesterday, I (indiscernible) doing something else, and I was even giving, getting a kick out of myself. I said I am user. Dot, dot, dot.
Pam: I heard that.
Jeremy: So that is why I do it.
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: I saw the funniest story the other day. It was a Facebook story. A guy, I do not know how it got in the news, but KSL had it on their Facebook feed, and the guy is looking at long-term retirement housing. Like when Mom and Dad get too old and they put them in, not a care facility, but more like –
Pam: Assisted living.
Jeremy: — like assisted living. And he was talking about the cost, and this guy had written blog about it. A blog or a Facebook post, and he said here is the deal. It is X number of dollars per day to stay at one of those things. He said I am actually going to go to the local Hilton, whatever it was, and his city was $59 a day, and it had free breakfast and they have a pool and everything. And he literally had said that is where I am going to retire to. And it is comical because there is no reason he cannot do that. But what it brought up is for me a hotel is not like a condo, a home, a vacation rental.
Pam: No, not at all.
Jeremy: It just feels like a hotel.
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: Like they are going to come in and change the sheets in the morning. I guess that is fine. I hope they change them. There are a lot of horror stories about that. Isn’t there, Jesse? So home away from home.
Pam: Home away from home. And I have actually had older people talk to me about that very thing. Like maybe they want to travel. They want to give up their home, so they just vacation home hop. A month here, a month there.
Jeremy: Yeah, have you guys ever, and I mentioned it yesterday, Jesse. Would you raise your hand? No. Have you ever checked out at all what we talked about Tuesday which is the home swapping?
Pam: Yes.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is kind of cool.
Pam: Yeah, I actually have had a couple of owners talk to me about that. If somebody is interested, hey, I would swap.
Jeremy: I want to do it. I want to do it. I really am going to do it.
Pam: Yeah.
Jeremy: So how did you get in this business?
Pam: Actually, I started in hospitality way back when I was in college. Having that need to have a little extra money, so I actually worked at the local Town & Country in Cedar City as a housekeeper, and then when we moved here, Tai was actually in the car business selling cars for one of the local dealerships here. And kind of half stay-at-home mom at the time, an opportunity came up just around the corner at Timeshare. So I said why not? So I started there, kind of lower in the ranks.
Jeremy: Where were you at? Like Worldmark or something?
Pam: Yep. Worked my way up through the company and worked in Housekeeping, became the Assistant Resort Manager and then into the General Manager position.
Jeremy: So it is in your blood.
Pam: It is in my blood. I was raised in the restaurant business.
Jeremy: Here is the thing. She is good on radio, isn’t she?
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: She was nervous about it. I just want to tell you that.
Pam: Yeah, I was.
Jeremy: She is very comfortable. Very comfortable. But what I love about this is you actually do have experience in this realm. Right?
Pam: Right. It is a big difference because of what a guest expects when they stay at a place, even though it is not a hotel, they a lot of times expect the same type of treatment that they would get at a hotel, so having that hospitality background is something that we bring to that so that we can create those great experiences for people.
Jesse: That is really interesting because how many of other property management companies treat it like a long-term rental and it is just not.
Jeremy: It is not.
Pam: It is not at all.
Jeremy: How many? I do not know, but I guess what you are asking. Right?
Jesse: Right. That is interesting because that is a lot different message than I have heard before.
Jeremy: Yeah. Have you done a vacation rental? Have you stayed in one?
Jesse: No. But just talking to different people. We do not, I was going to say you want to make some really good money? How to package for people that want room service to come in.
Pam: Yeah.
Jesse: The reason we do not typically stay at a nightly rental is because my wife wants them to come make the bed. And I do not want to do it.
Jeremy: When you said room service, I thought you meant you wanted the $18 cheesecake.
Jesse: Well, that too.
Pam: That is what I thought he wanted, too.
Jeremy: You mean changing the linens. Okay.
Jesse: Yeah.
Pam: We actually offer that. For a price, people can actually schedule that in advance. We will actually even go get their groceries for them.
Jesse: There you go. So there you go.
Pam: Have them set up.
Jeremy: There is so much.
Jesse: I did not know that. I was not a read-in.
Pam; Yeah, we can do that.
Jeremy: Yeah, why don’t you stop being such a, what is the word here?
Jesse: ESP?
Jeremy: Man, isn’t it funny that my brain just fried out.
Jesse: Once in a lifetime.
Jeremy: Why don’t you actually practice what we are talking about and actually go stay in a vacation rental? You are such a hypocrite. That is the word.
Jesse: I stayed in one in Boston.
Jeremy: Did you really?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: That is cool.
Jesse: I have stayed in them.
Jeremy: Okay. You did.
Jesse: And then we come home, and my wife says man, the bed is not made.
Jeremy: I know. I know. She is like this just feels like home.
Jesse: Yeah.
Pam: It is awesome.
Jeremy: So, Pam, kind of segueing along here, your company name is?
Pam: My Second Home.
Jeremy: My Second Home. Bingo. So you guys now manage, I said 30 on the Facebook feed. I do not know. What is it?
Pam: Yeah, we are at 26 right now and quickly growing because we are involved in a couple projects here in town. So everybody kind of knows that new area out there in Ivins where you have got Arcadia and Paradise. Well, we are actually one of the management companies managing for Ocotillo Springs, just behind those.
Jeremy: I know exactly.
Pam: We have got units selling and opening up so there will be a lot of those to manage here soon.
Jeremy: So here is what I want folks to do here this morning. By the way, I was just looking at our Facebook feed. If you have got questions or comments and you are watching this Facebook Live, please do ask.
Pam: Yeah, absolutely.
Jeremy: We would love it and that would be remarkable. So you have got 26 units and what does, if I am an owner and I want to have a vacation rental, but I wanted it managed because I do not want to fiddle with it, what does someone pay? Like what is general standard?
Pam: Yeah, standard is pretty much in our area is 30%, but it is pretty much across the board. If you look around the United States, when I have looked at other areas, it is 30%.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Pam: Some are a little bit higher than that, but I feel that that is fair.
Jeremy: Yeah, and that is what I have heard. I have heard 25-35 across the (indiscernible) –
Pam: And that is off of net nightly.
Jeremy: Yeah, net nightly. If I have, okay, in a year, what is a typical owner that you have here bringing in annually? I am going to narrow it down momentarily.
Pam: Yeah, annually, it could be, it just depends upon where the unit is, too, and what the nightly rate is for it.
Jeremy: Okay, let’s talk about somebody that has got a Las Palmas unit.
Pam: Okay. So Las Palmas unit, they could be bringing in anywhere from $15-25,000 in a year.
Jeremy: Annually. Okay. What is the most expensive property that you manage?
Pam: Most expensive property that we manage currently is at Estancia.
Jeremy: Okay, so what would they bring in in a year?
Pam: Actually, close to the same.
Jeremy: Isn’t that funny?
Pam: Because here is the thing. Because here is what people want. They want bang for their buck. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Pam: So, when you tend to have a property that is higher-priced, sometimes maybe it does not get quite the occupancy that one does that is more fairly priced.
Jeremy: So Estancia, really quick. Describe the Estancia unit compared to the Las Palmas unit for the listener.
Pam: Okay, so basically the Estancia unit, the most expensive one that we have would be considered like a Presidential suite. So it is like a four-bedroom, four-bath unit, top floor unit, over looks the pools. Right? And one of the neat things about this property compared to some others that we do is we do rent it as a three, a four or a one, which is like a hotel room. We have a lockout on it. So we can actually divide the unit up. Our biggest units over at like Las Palmas, they are actually equally as nice. We have second and third floor units that are three bedrooms, three baths. Beautiful units with lots of square footage. What would you say, Tai? About 1500-2000 in one of those? Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah, that sounds right.
Pam: Yeah.
Jeremy: Marlene asked a question. What is a normal occupancy rate for Arcadia, Paradise, and Ocotillo? Like for annually?
Pam: For annually, I am going to say it is going to be between, because they are still fairly new properties, you are probably talking between 30 and 50% occupancy in those.
Jeremy: I heard, and you guys know Kendall, and I was commenting about Kendall on Tuesday because he was texting me while we were on the air. So Kendall has done a lot of vacation rentals, and we are in this conversation, by the way, of creation versus competition. So, hey we are talking about their competitor. But he is a great guy. These are great people. He was commenting that at some of those places that you are seeing about 60% kind of max. But you have not seen anyone with more than probably 50-60%.
Pam: No, absolutely not. Not with as many rentals as we have in the area right now.
Jeremy: Yeah. There are so many. Are there, and you get to be opinionated here –
Pam: Okay.
Jeremy: — and well remember the reason I say that is because I think people are afraid –
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: — and I have gotten quite opinionated on this radio show.
Pam: You have.
Jeremy: It is fun. It is fun. I am not quite Rush Limbaugh, but do you think there are too many units being built, vacation rentals being built and zoned?
Pam: I think the zoning is a great thing. I think that we probably have too many being built right now because the problem is with the amount that are being built, they are still a very costly piece of property compared to what an average home is. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah, that is what you said, Jesse, when you commented.
Pam: Except for what that ends up doing is driving down the nightly rate because we all compete. Every single company here is going to tell you that they do like market analysis, right, and we are watching what the prices are. Well, you have got to compete with your competitors and where people want to stay. So that drives down the price, the nightly price.
Jeremy: Yeah, and I have been, strongly think that we are building too many, and I am, remember the litmus test is the notice, did you notice test, and did you notice when you drive around town that everywhere you look there is another billboard or 8×8 sign in the ground that says we are building new units that are nightly, weekly zone.
Pam: I heard you say that the other day, and I see them too. We drive around to see them.
Jeremy: What is going on here?
Jesse: The opposing opinion about that would be is that the City just trying to offset all of the private owners trying to do the nightly rental in places that are not zoned. They either open it up to the City or keep it where they can control it.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: They are going to be here either way.
Pam: Correct.
Jeremy: Correct. We have 1000 new hotel rooms right now. So 500 just this last year and another 500 coming online. That is a lot of hotel rooms.
Jesse: That is.
Jeremy: This becomes challenging. One of the strongest opinions that I have is I do not really advise for most locals that they are purchasing a vacation rental in St. George. If I were purchasing a vacation rental, I would be purchasing it in Park City, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. In a place that I want to go. Right? And I want to spend some time in, and then allow these tenants to offset my costs at 30-50% per year.
Pam: Okay.
Jeremy: That is just me.
Pam: So here is –
Jeremy: I do not know.
Pam: — here are two little tidbits for you.
Jeremy: Yeah, go.
Pam: So first one is even though we have that many hotels already, and I know we are building so we may reach that cap to where all of a sudden, we have got too many vacation rentals, too many hotels. But even right now, President’s Day weekend, and you can talk to other managers and they will tell you the same thing because we call each other to help each other. Our phones are ringing off the hook. There is no place to stay.
Jeremy: There is no room at the inn.
Pam: There is no room at the inn because we have got sporting events going on. We have got Parade of Homes going on, and –
Jesse: That is true.
Pam: — we are just packed to the gills. You heard people on the radio complain about the traffic issues and stuff.
Jeremy: Oh, it is, yeah.
Pam: And then the other end of it is as far as locals owning, now I have had several people come to me and I have actually had people that have purchased, and you can talk to other realtors about this as well that are kind of into selling the vacation rentals, but what is really, really interesting is that there are locals that want them. Why do they want them? This is a retirement community.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Pam: So now all of a sudden I find myself in a really small home. Our home is not very big, and we do not want to get bigger because our kids are grown. Now, all of a sudden, the families are growing. I have got three children, five grandchildren, ten children, everybody comes for Thanksgiving –
Jeremy: Oh, I see this. And you want to invite them in.
Pam: Where do I put them? So they buy one to make a little money, but they also can put the family up there when they have got big holidays or summer or whatever it is.
Jeremy: I do not hate that, and I like this alternative opinion. So here is a question. At 30-50% occupancy, let’s call it 50% occupancy because remember, all of our listeners out here, we have got Pam Eisham with My Second Home and they manage second home vacation rentals, basically, right, short-term rentals. Remember that the rate that you are paying per night is high compared to like a long-term, meaning a long-term lease on a Las Palmas unit is $1400 a month. But per night, it is $150 a night.
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: So could someone cash flow and even make, not just break even, but be profitable at 50% occupancy in their unit here locally?
Pam: Locally, I think if they buy right. They have got to buy in the right place for the right person.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Pam: For example, one of the units in Las Palmas, three bedrooms, three baths sold for like 260-something.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is getting expensive. Paradise Village we talked about. I used Paradise Village for the event posting on Facebook. That stuff is expensive. Pam, who are your owners? Who is an owner? Not by name, but who would be an owner? How much time, Andy? Three minutes. Perfect. Thank you.
Pam: So who would be an owner? So, like you said, a lot of owners are from out of the area. And interestingly enough, a lot of the owners actually are maybe snowbirds themselves, so maybe they want to come for a month or two down here. So they are from Idaho, from Washington, from all over, Oregon, whatever. Right? Northern Utah. We have several from Northern Utah. But, an owner is someone that maybe they want a place to stay themselves or be able to put their kids up, their brothers, their sisters. I have people that do that all the time. Share it with the family, but they want to make a little money on the side, too. Maybe they want to cover their HOA fees or all of their power bills and stuff. They may not always cover their mortgage –
Jeremy: So all of your owners independently wealthy people who just have $500,000 to buy a unit?
Pam: Absolutely not.
Jeremy: Say it with a grin.
Pam: They are people just like us.
Jeremy: The coolest thing about rental properties as we start to wrap this show up, and the coolest part is that, so Jesse, if you have a Roth IRA or a 401K, your employer, if you had a good employer, might match it, but the issue with your Roth IRA is who funds it? Who puts the money in every month?
Jesse: I do.
Jeremy: You do. Right? The cool thing about investment properties is that somebody else pays for it every month.
Pam: Correct.
Jeremy: That is the zinger. By the way, you might, a listener out there might be somebody a dual-income family and he runs a Jiffy Lube and she is a teacher at Heritage Elementary, those folks would be incredible investors.
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: And you know what is funny? Those people –
Pam: And there are a lot of them out there.
Jeremy: And a lot of them, there are, and yet a lot of them do not think of themselves as investors.
Pam: Right.
Jeremy: It is like whoa, go get a property. Pam Eisham, thank you. So how do people reach you? Tell us how they contact you.
Pam: You can reach us at My Second Home Vacay dot com.
Jeremy: My Second Home Vacay dot com.
Pam: Vacay dot com. And you can also reach us at 435-313-5143. Glad to answer any questions.
Jeremy: Okay. I am going to give it again. 435-313
Pam: 313-5143.
Jeremy: Yep, 313-5143. Guys, thank you so much for listening. Thank you for being on the air.
Pam: Absolutely.
Jesse: Thank you.
Jeremy: You are amazing.
Pam: Thanks for having me.
Jeremy: We are going to have to have you back, and of course, listeners, thank you. If you have got questions about your own real estate situation, buying a rental, selling a rental, or you want to give us a vote for Best of Southern Utah, visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. Sold in St. George dot com. Over and out.

 

St. George Parade of Homes Ticket Giveaway and Consumer Survey! (St. George Real Estate Radio Show)

Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Andy: You know what that music means? I do. I think it means Jeremy Larkin is in the house.
Jeremy: Hello, everybody. You know what, Jesse? We are going to reset this live feed, guys. We have got a Facebook Live feed, and I do not think we are on Wi-Fi. So I think we re going to reset it. Good morning to everybody here. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George, what?
Jesse: St. George Real Estate Radio Show, the Morning Drive.
Jeremy: You almost got it. See? I was testing you. I was testing you. I was testing you.
Andy: You guys are so tech-savvy.
Jeremy: The St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Okay? Can we get it right? The St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. We have got to get Andy trained.
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: Andy, here is the thing, Andy. You were just calling Hurricane H-Town.
Andy: H-Town. Yeah.
Jeremy: Right.
Andy: Is that not good?
Jeremy: I like it, but now I want the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Can people see his shirt? They cannot see his shirt because he has got a face for radio.
Andy: Maybe we ought to do a close-up on Facebook.
Jeremy: He has got a face for radio. Do you love that?
Andy: But he has got a shirt for the world. His shirt is amazing.
Jesse: Hey, my wife gave me this shirt two years ago, and I think it has taken me a couple years to get the courage to wear it. So.
Jeremy: (Indiscernible) woman.
Jesse: It is sexy.
Andy: This is the debut of the shirt today?
Jesse: No, I have worn it before, but not like this. Not on air.
Andy: Oh, okay.
Jeremy: It is a debut.
Andy: He has lips on his shirt.
Jesse: If you cannot see it, you can go to the Larkin Group. We are St. George Experts on Facebook and look at our Facebook Live and you can see the lips. I feel like Mick Jagger.
Jeremy: they are not that big.
Jesse: I almost like Mick Jagger this morning because in the middle of the night, I stole my wife’s pillow and she got up and almost punched me.
Jeremy: Let me see if I can explain something to all of our listeners. He moves. You know the song? Moves Like Jagger? This guy moves like Mick Jagger.
Andy: Yeah?
Jeremy: He actually does. So I got a question out there for people. How many folks are YouTube Live? Does anyone watch YouTube? I do not know. Because it is a thing.
Jesse: I do. Not live, but I definitely am a YouTuber.
Jeremy: So what we are doing now is we have taken the show and we are running it on YouTube Live. So we run the show on Facebook Live. We run the show on YouTube Live. Now, we killed our live feed for just a minute. I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Because we thought maybe WiiFi might be helpful, Andy.
Andy: Is it working?
Jeremy: It is. We are going to be back on right now. So guys, I want to wish everybody out there a very, very lovely happy Valentine’s Day. Andy, what do you got, what is on your schedule today?
Andy: Dinner and a concert for me and the wife.
Jeremy: Where is the concert?
Andy: It is Cox Auditorium. It is the Carpenters’ tribute band. I do not know if you are old enough to remember the Carpenters.
Jeremy: Come on, of course.
Andy: They were very romantic.
Jesse: No, the Carpenters.
Jeremy: Come on.
Andy: I said something in a room the other day about going to the Carpenters’ tribute band, and everybody gave me the three-mile stare like who? What? Who? She has been dead for 30 years. But yeah, I am pretty pumped about tonight. We have not figured out where dinner, we are not sit down with cloth napkins and have a steak type people very often. So we are going to have a nice dinner and a concert, but it will not be, I am not going to spend $100 on dinner.
Jeremy: Very fair.
Jesse: Or wait for 2 ½ hours.
Andy: I have got a reservation. No, no, I do not want to do that.
Jesse: Valentine’s Day is the craziest restaurant day.
Andy: What about you, Jeremy?
Jeremy: For what it is worth, I have got reservations, by the way.
Andy: Really?
Jeremy: I have got reservations at the Ledges, 5pm.
Andy: Oooo.
Jeremy: So don’t anybody out there dare think that I did not plan ahead. I got those reservations a week ago.
Jesse: Wow. A week in advance and you still got –
Jeremy: Now, I might be there alone, but I have got reservations at the Ledges. Do you know what I am saying?
Andy: You planned ahead though. That is good. I am impressed.
Jeremy: No, I absolutely did. I have got reservations at the Ledges with a very lovely woman. Happy Valentine’s Day to Kayla Evans, and to Jesse Poll here and all of my –
Jesse: And to Leia Frances Poll. That is my wife.
Jeremy: And to Leis Frances Poll. Yeah. And to all of the beautiful women at our office, and also the beautiful men at the Larkin Group. I do not know.
Andy: Can’t they be handsome?
Jeremy: They can be handsome. They are beautiful. Guys, we are back on Facebook Live if you are not there. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. Check it out. We are live, back on. Just trying to see if we can get our feeds to run a little better. Okay. The funny part is I was going to look in my photos this morning. This is what I love about technology. I was going to look in my photos and did not prior to the show to find out what I was doing last Valentine’s Day. That is the thing with the phone is you can actually find out what you were doing on any Valentine’s Day. Right?
Andy: Was there something cool?
Jesse: Because of your photos.
Jeremy: No, yeah. Just because your photos it is a scrapbook. It is a living scrapbook. How many photos do you have on your phone, Jesse?
Jesse: Thousands.
Jeremy: How many thousands?
Jesse: I do not know. My phone is over there. Well, I have had to delete it a few times because my iCloud gets full.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: And I just cannot see paying $12, $20 a month because it just keeps adding. When I can take it all over to Google photos and get almost unlimited if I save it right.
Jeremy: Absolutely.
Jesse: So it is challenging to make that happen. With an iPhone, it does not seamlessly happen.
Jeremy: It is not quite as seamless as you want it to be. Well, I want to let you guys know that I have 11,000 —
Andy: 11,000?
Jeremy: — photos.
Andy: Wow.
Jeremy: How do you like that?
Jesse: I do not have that many. You must pay for serious storage or you have a big phone.
Jeremy: I have a gigantic phone.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: It is basically like the brick phone from Saved by the Bell. Remember the one? You do not know.
Andy: I used to broadcast games on those big things.
Jesse: Oh, I remember those.
Jeremy: Oh gosh.
Jesse: Those came out when I was actually a teenager, I think.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is a big old brick phone.
Jesse: Miami Vice.
Jeremy: Yeah, Crockett and Tubbs. Right? Remember those guys?
Andy: Oh yeah.
Jeremy: We are going to have some fun this morning. So we are going to give away some Parade of Homes tickets. We are giving away on the Larkin Group Facebook page dinner for two. A gift card for some folks. Should we start with that?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: Okay, we have got a Valentine’s giveaway. By the way, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, and I have got Jesse Poll here, my business partner, co-host, and we are talking about, we are going to talk about the St. George Parade of Homes –
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: — because it is so massive and we ran a survey that is very, very interesting. Now, I think the data is, I think it is lopsided and weighted because it is data that came from out real estate database.
Jesse: Right. Right.
Jeremy: Does that make sense? So is it really, it is not reflective of what the public is doing.
Jesse: Right, but I think we are going to do another one, I believe.
Jeremy: Yeah, we will probably do another one. Okay.
Jesse: To really make it fair.
Jeremy: We will do another one. But the first thing I want to tell folks is would you like to win date night? You have already got yours planned.
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: So folks can still win it. Over at the Larkin Group Facebook page. It is Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts. Some fun photos. Tag your Valentine and post a photo of you and them on the feed there. We already have 11 beautiful couples have posted and good morning to so many of them. So cool, so fun. Have you seen it? It is pretty fun. Hop on there. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and post a photo of your Valentine together. You two together.
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: And we are going to draw for one lucky couple today. Number two, we have got a St. George Parade of Homes ticket giveaway that is going on right now. And I know we are giving people so maybe things to track down, but it is okay. They are going to survive. Right?
Jesse: If they want it, they will track it.
Jeremy: If they want it, they will track it down.
Jesse: We will chase the things that we want.
Jeremy: Yeah, we will chase things that we want. And by the way, I chase the things that I want. Very, very, very much chase things I want. So, want to let people know we are doing a giveaway and if you want to get in on this giveaway, visit St. George Real Estate Videos dot com because we posted the link there, and it is a survey about the Parade of Homes. Should we talk about the results, Jesse?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: It is a very simple survey. We asked people three questions about the Parade of Homes, but maybe most importantly, we asked questions about what their plans are in real estate this year because we want, it is like what are people thinking? What are they feeling? What are they going through? Are people buying homes? Are they selling homes? What are they doing? Right? Okay. So how many responses have we had to our survey?
Jesse: 118.
Jeremy: 118 folks answered three questions. And what were the questions, Jesse? Do you know off the top of your head?
Jesse: The first was have you ever attended the St. George Parade of Homes? 79% said yes. 20% said no.
Jeremy: Okay. And this is in our database?
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: So, so 80% said yes, more or less. 20% said no.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Now, not surprisingly, what was the next question and answer?
Jesse: Do you plan to attend this year’s Parade of Homes or the 2019 Parade of Homes? 80% said yes. 19.3 said no.
Jeremy: So essentially, exact reflective answer. All the people who said they had been to the parade said they are going to the Parade. Have you been?
Andy: I have, yes.
Jeremy: It is very cool. If you go this year, if there is anything you want above say $2 million, we would be happy to write it up. Okay? Just want you to know that.
Andy: That would be dollars because that is a little out of my price range, Jeremy.
Jeremy: Yeah, I know. I get it. I get it. Third question. What do we have?
Jesse: Third question. Do you plan on making a move or change of residence in 2019? 55% said no. 44.5 said yes.
Jeremy: And that was baffling. So understand that this survey was conducted out of our database. So for our real estate clients, by the way, who we market to. We have almost 10,000 now —
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — recipients on our email list. As a matter of fact, our last, I do not know what yesterday was when we sent out the Parade of Homes giveaway, but we were at about 9200 successful deliveries. That is how big our database it. That is how big the group is that we are now marketing to, that we are marketing your listing to if you are selling a home. Right? That we are sharing about the market. And anyone who is on that list knows that we share, it is like 90% value, content, 10% hey, can you help us out? Can you send us a referral? That kind of thing. We are putting tons and tons of content into this database. So the point being we queried that group, and in that group, not surprisingly, lots of them go to the Parade of Homes. Lots of them plan to go to the Parade of Homes, and almost 50%, did you say 45? Said they are going to move this year.
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: Holy cow. Okay.
Jesse: 44.5.
Jeremy: Let’s talk about some of the things they said, and by the way, of course, I am not going to ever share names. Here is a couple of things I noticed by the way. We are thinking of downsizing. We are thinking of downsizing. We are thinking of downsizing. I think I saw that yeah three times. We are thinking of downsizing. Isn’t that fascinating?
Jesse: I am looking at one right here. The first one that popped up. When will the bubble in real estate bust? When will the prices plateau?
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: Will Washington County pricing peak anytime soon?
Jeremy: Oh, this is so awesome. So when will the bubble burst? So –
Andy: Is it a bubble even?
Jeremy: You are just, thank you for being wonderful. Andy, have you ever had something go really horribly wrong for you?
Andy: Oh, of course.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Andy: My first day on the air here, as a matter of fact.
Jeremy: Beautiful. And here is a question for you. After the first day on the air, this is actually perfect, and I did not set you up for this.
Andy: Nope.
Jeremy: After the first day on the air, and it went horrible is how you felt about that. Okay? Did you believe that all of the other days were also going to be horrible because that one was horrible?
Andy: No.
Jeremy: No. So do you see where I am going? There was a bubble a decade ago.
Andy: Right.
Jeremy: And because there was a bubble, people are so shell-shocked of what do they believe?
Jesse: There is going to be another one.
Jeremy: It is going to happen again.
Jesse: What is interesting is the last time, it had been so long since we had had anything like that it was not even in their mind.
Jeremy: Correct.
Jesse: And now, because we are back to a normal cycle, right? It should cycle every ten years. Up and down. Up or plateau.
Jeremy: Yes. Yes.
Jesse: So last time, it was one of the longest stretches in history. So it was out of our mind. The 70s and 80s is the last time that it probably really happened (indiscernible)
Jeremy: Literally. Yeah, when you are talking about major economic issues with 70s and 80s –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — you had interest rates hit 18%, and then for people to even buy or sell real estate it was all seller-financed, and weird and wrap-around mortgages. And you can have the use of my four-wheeler. It was three wheelers by the way in the 80s. Those things were fun and dangerous.
Andy: And dangerous.
Jeremy: And dangerous.
Jesse: My son got a three-wheeler that did not run, and he made it run on fumes. He created a gasifier engine.
Jeremy: A gasifier engine.
Jesse: In high school.
Jeremy: Oh my goodness.
Jesse: Good old three-wheeler. They made it a chopper three-wheeler.
Jeremy: I love it. I tipped one over. 600 South downtown St. George.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: But at the time it was like you can use my three-wheeler and then also my house boat at Lake Powell and then I will give you $20,000 down and then if you will, it was this crazy stuff people had to do to sell real estate. We do not have any comprehension how good it is now. Because see if you do not know what the bitter is, you do not know what the sweet is. So folks, we are in a wonderful real estate market. We are in a healthy real estate market. We are probably getting into a more healthy real estate market than we have seen in the last couple of years.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: When will the boom bust? Bubble burst? We do not think there is a bubble. Okay? Fair enough?
Jesse: I agree.
Jeremy: All right. So what is another question we have got in here? These are so incredible. Incredible issues. We basically could run a radio show for the next two years off this.
Jesse: I think we should because the next one that popped out on me –
Jeremy: Thank you, everyone.
Jesse: Nothing to do with the Parade of Homes, but this stuff comes up all the time. We are thinking about adding a two-car garage to our home with a two-car garage. And that would be four would be attached. What affect will this have on the home’s value?
Jeremy: Okay. So let’s run this. Let’s break this down now. They want to add a two-car garage.
Jesse: To a two-car garage. So it would be a four-car garage.
Jeremy: Two two-car. All right. So, Carl Wright was in our office last week –
Jesse: Two to two.
Jeremy: Yeah right. So Carl Wright was in our office last week. Carl Wright is with R1 Appraisals. I hope I do not butcher this. I think they have done 120,000 appraisals. His company. They might have a feel for the market.
Jesse: A little one.
Jeremy: And what was fun is that most everything he said reflected what I knew which made me very happy and kind of pat my own back. Stretch back there.
Jesse: He did, too.
Jeremy: Yeah, I did. I went ahead and gave myself a scratch and a pat and hug.
Jesse: And asked us for one, too. And we gave it to him.
Jeremy: I know you did. Depending on the home, 7-10,000 per garage bay if you are in a more expensive home. $5-8,000 per garage bay if you are on a less expensive home. Let’s call it 10,000 a garage bay. And let’s just maybe go ahead and say 15-20 grand. Now, but here is maybe more important. That is 15-20 grand on an appraisal.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: But more importantly, if they were to put it on the market, it is much more marketable.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Right? And we do not know. We do not know what, well, aren’t you guys real estate professionals? Well, yeah. But we do not know everything. Right? There is no classic, perfect metric for that. But here is what I would say to the person who answered that question. If you want to put a two-car garage onto your existing two so you got a four, you are not doing that for another buyer. Who are you doing that for, Jesse?
Jesse: Yourself.
Jeremy: Yeah. Have you upgraded your home ever, Andy?
Andy: Yeah, years ago.
Jeremy: What did you do?
Andy: We added a little bit of room. We also built on kind of shed-type space and a carport, and then we added on an awning in the back.
Jeremy: Beautiful.
Andy: Made the back very livable.
Jeremy: So did you like that?
Andy: Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
Jeremy: And who did you do that for?
Andy: Did it for myself, not for the future owner.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: We were just having this conversation the other day.
Jeremy: But there was a benefit for the future owner, but it really was not for them. It was for you.
Andy: Exactly.
Jeremy: There you go.
Jesse: We were just having this conversation the other day. We have got a couple coming soon listings. One in the Legacy that is a walk-out basement. Another one in Bloomington Hills, and we are talking about well one of them has completely remodeled it. Just beautiful home. And we were talking about man, what value can we really get out of this? Can we get it back? That will be coming on the market here in a few weeks. We are really excited about that and see what the market says.
Jeremy: Incredible home in the Legacy. We are –
Jesse: Oh, it is so awesome.
Jeremy: — talk about a couple of properties today.
Andy: Jeremy, let me mention real quick. I have a Mustang.
Jeremy: Hey, Andy, this is my show. I am kidding. Keep talking.
Andy: I just want to enhance your point though.
Jeremy: I just wanted to go ahead and see if people could be uncomfortable. I could not even stand this discomfort –
Andy: I can turn off your microphone –
Jeremy: I know you can.
Andy: No, I am just kidding
Jeremy: So go ahead.
Jesse: He controls this show.
Andy: I have a Mustang. Last year I bought some Boss rims for my Mustang. I did not buy the Boss rims because someday I am going to sell that Mustang and I want to get that money back. I bought the Boss rims because they are cool, and I wanted my car to look really cool. Same point.
Jeremy: And here is the irony. Because not only did you not buy it for the future purchaser of your car, what is actually going to happen to the value of that car over time?
Andy: It is just going to go up. Yeah.
Jeremy: It is going to go up, or people may or may not ever even want that and you may just give those Boss rims away for free. Right? Because you do not know what someone will want.
Andy: Right.
Jeremy: When we talk about selling a home in this market, we have had this conversation so often. You envision this giant funnel, okay. Giant. Like a Washington County size funnel. And at the top of the funnel is every buyer for every property. Okay? Townhomes, condos, single-family homes, luxury homes, trailers, trailers on rented lots, trailers on owned lots, land, every property, every buyer goes into the top of the funnel. Well, here is the issue. Out the bottom of the funnel, Jesse, if you are selling a home, what do you need? You need one person to come out of the bottom of the funnel who wants what?
Jesse: To buy this home.
Jeremy: That home. So Jesse lives on 200?
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: In Hurricane, H-Town. I love that, Andy.
Andy: H-Town. Yeah.
Jeremy: He is home that was built –
Jesse: Downtown.
Jeremy: — in 19 what?
Jesse: 1922.
Jeremy: 1922. The home is gorgeous. Okay? And, not but, and it is a historic home.
Jesse: It is definitely an historic home.
Jeremy: So here is what has to happen if Jesse wants to sell his house. He has to find someone, number one, who wants to buy a home. Number two, they want to buy a home in Hurricane –
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: — Utah. Number three, they are okay buying a home built in 1926.
Jesse: 22.
Jeremy: 22.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And all that comes with a home that was built in 1922.
Jesse: Yes, it does. You start digging into those and you find problems you did not even know existed.
Jeremy: Okay. We have got our buyer, but yet, we do not. Now, they have to be able to afford it. Next, number five, they have to want to afford it.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: That one is what people, maybe I do not want to afford it. Oh, I could afford it. I just do not want to afford it. Right? They have to want to afford it. And then we just come circle all the way back around to what we talked about. Then they have to love the style. Going in the house has to feel right the day they went there because maybe the husband and wife or husband and husband or wife and wife or whatever we are doing now, right, we are in a fight in the car on the way to the home. Do you realize the couple fighting in the car on the way to the house could ruin the sale?
Andy: It is true.
Jeremy: Right.
Andy: That is true.
Jeremy: Do you love it? Anything could affect the marketability of this home.
Jesse: Oh my gosh, that is great.
Jeremy: So out the bottom of this funnel is the person that buys your home. And so we just have to realize that this is not like oh, I got the best home on the block. I realize you might have the best home on the block, but buyers are looking at a lot of homes.
Jesse: There are a lot of other dynamics. I was just talking to somebody yesterday that was doing an inspection on a home and their agent, the seller’s agent, is just disconnected. They are not, it is just who they are.
Jeremy: Okay. Agent representing the seller of the property. Okay.
Jesse: The seller. So they are doing inspections. The buyer is doing an inspection and this seller is just livid. And their agent is not available to help calm them down. This is just what happens. This is normal. So it may go south because something you cannot control. The seller, the buyer cannot control, the agent should be controlling that. Or at least doing some future prepping —
Jeremy: Correct.
Jesse: — of what to expect.
Jeremy: Future prepping. Future pacing.
Jesse: Pacing. There you go.
Jeremy: Is what we call it okay. Okay. One more question. Andy, what do we got for time today?
Andy: You have got about three minutes.
Jeremy: Last question, Jesse, and then we are going to talk about two real estate things, two homes.
Jesse: Okay. There was one on here. Let me look.
Jeremy: Okay. When is the best time to refinance? How about that?
Jesse: That is a good one.
Jeremy: You ready? You ready? The best time to refinance is when interest rates are lower than your current interest rate. And by the way, people say by how much? At least a half of a point.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: If it is not about a half a point, you are going to pay a lot of money unless you are really truly planning on staying in a home for 30 years. When is the best time to refinance? When is the best time to plant a tree? 25 years ago. When is the next best time? Today.
Jesse: And that also depends on what you are doing. I went to go refinance and Chantry Abbot over at Guild Mortgage actually talked me out of it and sent me to a different institution to get a HELOC because it made more sense for me.
Jeremy: That is what happens, by the way, when you work with professionals. How about this? Two minutes. Robert did this on our team. Congrats, Robert. Happy Valentine’s Day, Robert. Just wanted to personally, and you have done this. He talked the seller out of selling their home.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Went to visit with the client and said I do not even think this is a good idea. Folks, a couple of incredible properties coming up. We are listing, putting on the market tomorrow afternoon a home in Ivins that is just, it is literally like a little, it is not a diamond in the rough. It is like a little, fields of diamonds. More like that. It is in your backyard. They coined it mini farm meets pool paradise, and these are amazing people.
Jesse: They are amazing people and an amazing house.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is really fun.
Jesse: It is going to be a lot of fun to sell that.
Jeremy: Yeah, I love it when we bring a home to market that is just not another home. 2355 square feet, four bedrooms, but most importantly, they have built this oasis in the backyard. Chicken coops. It is just so freaking cool. So anyway, check this out. This home is coming to the market tomorrow. Number two, Legacy and we are not going to give you anymore. By the way, if you want to see this property upcoming, you can see it at Go St. George dot com. Legacy.
Jesse: I have got one in Bloomington Hills coming up.
Jeremy: Incredible.
Jesse: Walk-out basement with two kitchens. Just awesome mother-in-law apartment.
Jeremy: Two kitchen. Oh. Guys, incredible properties. Check them all out at Go St. George dot com on our coming soon listings. They are not all there yet because we are working with a lot of clients. If you would like to win the Valentine’s, a date night for you and your Valentine, visit Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and post, you will see the post. Post a picture or photo of your loveliness together. And if you would like to get in on the Parade of Homes, we are going to give away at least ten tickets, five sets of tickets.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: Get involved in the Parade of Homes survey that we asked today. Have you been? Are you going? And do you plan to buy or sell this year? To give us a sense for what people are doing at St. George Real Estate Videos dot com. Man, did we jam it in there?
Andy: You got it done.
Jesse: Good job, Jeremy.
Jeremy: Sponsored by Coke Vanilla Zero.
Andy: I know. Nice product placement.
Jeremy: Look it is a downgrade from Red Bull. I am trying to get off that stuff. I love the product placement. The problem is guess what they are giving me? Nothing.
Andy: St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy, I loved the show. Thank you, man.
Jeremy: Thank you, man. Appreciate it. Cheers.

Carl Wright of R1 Appraisal: Where are St. George Home Prices Going? (St. George Real Estate Radio Show)

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Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Andy: These guys have maybe the coolest theme music out there.
Jeremy: Yes, we do.
Andy: St. George Real Estate show with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy joined today Carl Wright. Guys, I love talking about real estate. I am always kind of in the market for a different house even though I have been in my current house seven years. Maybe you can help me out a little bit.
Jeremy: Listen, I have got some stuff in the $2-3 million range I think you should look at.
Andy: Okay, can I borrow a couple of mill?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Andy: Okay.
Jeremy: Here is the deal. I would happily contribute to your down payment. I cannot say what, but hey, by the way –
Andy: A couple of cows or –
Jeremy: — welcome. Welcome to the show, Andy.
Andy: Thank you, Jeremy. It is great to be here. I have been looking forward to this day for about a week. I have been here what, three times now, sitting and listening to you guys –
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, this is –
Andy: — but Mike would never let me talk.
Jeremy: No he would not. He would not.
Andy: Now, I get to talk.
Jeremy: Last week was the famed, final, final, the farewell show. Mike is no longer with us. Is that how you say it?
Carl: That is sad.
Andy: Well, I will say this. I called a basketball game with him last night, so I know he is still with us, he is just not with us.
Jeremy: He is with us. Which game did you guys call?
Andy: Pineview Dixie. Three-pointer at the buzzer in overtime. It was a great game.
Jeremy: Wait a minute. Who won?
Andy: Pineview won it.
Jeremy: Oh man.
Carl: Oh wow.
Jeremy: See I was not, literally I was so focused in other things I did not even know they were playing last night, which is sad because I am a Dixie High graduate. And that used to be, that was the rivalry. But the rivalries now, there is a variety of rivalries. It used to be Pineview and, excuse me, it used to be Cedar-Dixie, which was –
Andy: Right.
Jeremy: — when I was young. And then it became Pineview-Dixie. And now there is, there is kind of a variety of rivalries. Isn’t there, Carl? What do you think? What do you think the real rivalry is now?
Carl: Gosh, it is, I think there is a rivalry between everybody now.
Jeremy: Your kids, your kids will go where? Crimson or Desert Hills?
Carl: We will go to the new Crimson.
Jeremy: You will go to Crimson.
Andy: Brand-new school in the fall.
Carl: Brand-new school.
Jeremy: Yeah, so it is has changed. The dynamic has changed. Three-pointer at the buzzer. Good grief. I think I just had a traumatic episode thinking about Jordan and him, the fallaway three-pointer on the Jazz in the 1996 –
Andy: Oh, flashback.
Carl: Thanks for bringing that up.
Andy: Yeah, thanks a lot.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are never going to live that down because genuinely speaking the Jazz are never, ever going to probably have that chance again. I am sorry, guys. It is what it is. It is hard to attract, hey welcome to St. George Real Estate sports show. It is hard to attract, I have said this forever. Now, I am going to beat up on my own state. I was born and raised in St. George, Utah. My father was born and raised in St. George, Utah. So we love, we love this state. We love this city. We love, but it is very hard to attract talent to Utah. Right?
Carl: Agreed.
Jeremy: Because the big stars are not super interested in, and can we just call it what it is, our liquor laws. Our lack of nightlife. Very much like state religious kind of predominance. They are just not interested. And that is the same for BYU and University of Utah. University of Utah has done pretty well, but at the end of the day, I love my state, but it is just hard, right, to attract talent.
Carl: True, but I have to say that Donovan Mitchell has totally –
Jeremy: Yes.
Carl: — revitalized the sports enthusiasm —
Jeremy: Yes.
Carl: Can I say that?
Jeremy: Yes.
Carl: — for the Utah Jazz. I love Donovan Mitchell. I love what he is all about. His on and off the court. He is a great, great face for the Utah Jazz.
Jeremy: Yeah, and they have come along.
Andy: To illustrate your point a little bit, Rudy Gobert should be an all-star right now. He did not get it, and I think, more than anything, is because he plays in Utah and not in New York City or LA or –
Jeremy: Bingo.
Andy: — somewhere else. And that is another reason why the great talent is not going to sign –
Jeremy: Not. It is, it is frustrating.
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: That is okay. That is okay. Here we are. We are here. We are live. St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I am Jeremy Larkin, the host of the program. I have got, by the way, if you look on Facebook it says the insanely handsome Carl Wright. By the way, the insanely handsome Carl Wright joins us to share some trends that are not being told or shared, I should have said shared, by any other real estate professionals in town. And the reason I say this, it is not that it is going to be that controversial, but it is what we have been talking about, and there is this kind of, remember when you were a kid and you plugged your ears and said I am not listening, I am not listening –
Carl: Right.
Jeremy: — to your brother, sister, sibling, cousin. There is a lot of that going on right now in Washington County. A lot of I am not listening, I am not listening, I am not listening. Gang, we are inviting you this morning to actually save yourself a whole bunch of pain in 2019 by listening to what we have to say in this program. And the question that might come up, are they going to tell us that the market is crashing? No.
Andy: No.
Jeremy: No, but, but, right, Carl? But there is information that people need to know if they want to make a good decision this year.
Carl: Totally.
Jeremy: We are happy to be here. I am happy to have Carl here. Happy to have Andy Griffin here, who is not the new Mike McGary. He is Andy Griffin, and he is going to be fantastic. You moved here from where?
Andy: I have been in Southern Utah for 25 years. I grew up in Texas. In high school, my parents, much to my chagrin, moved to Salt Lake County and I told them flat out I am not going. I am staying here. I am going to stay with my friends. But when you are 14, 15 years old, you really do not get that choice.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Andy: So they actually sent me off to a camp and moved while I was gone.
Jeremy: Nice.
Andy: I no longer had a home.
Jeremy: You were strong when you said you were not going even though you were going.
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Andy: Exactly. And then, I have been kicking around Utah. Spent one year, way northern Idaho, Moscow, Idaho on a (indiscernible) there. The thing I did not like about Idaho is the thing I love about here. The clouds rolled in October and did not leave until March. It was gloomy. It is cold out there, guys, but it is a glorious, sun shiny day. I love it.
Jeremy: It is. I am a big mountain biker. And I would happily go out this afternoon, get a beautiful ride in, put an extra layer one. It is going to be high 40s. That is a cold day, but not a big deal. Right? By the way, Bryant Head Ski Resort, I have, just so everyone knows how I operate. The Bryant Head webcam is typically pulled up on, there you go, Carl. On my computer.
Andy: Oh wow.
Jeremy: It is just always up. Bryant Head, check this out. So I was up there over the weekend. They had 10 inches Saturday night, and I thought well, that was nice. They have had 35 inches since then. So 45 inches, almost four feet. Eagle Point Ski Resort is at 31 inches. Storm total. So if you are wanting to get up there and get some skiing in –
Carl: It is a good time.
Jeremy: — or snowboarding, I have got to say –
Carl: That is the wonderful thing about St. George is that you can enjoy —
Jeremy: Right. That is why –
Carl: — you can enjoy the sunshine and not having to shovel your walks, but 45 minutes you can be on the slopes.
Jeremy: Yeah, gang, I have absolutely biked and skied in the same day in St. George.
Andy: Nice.
Jeremy: Many times.
Andy: Nice.
Jeremy: So you can do that, and that is kind of why I segued that. I thought how fun is this that Bryant Head, by the way, an hour and twenty up, typically I am an hour and twenty up and an hour and fifteen down. It is always just a little quicker coming down. That is pretty static. I am an 85 guy on the freeway, cruise control, and it is an hour and twenty minutes to that resort, and I am talking on a stormy day it is an hour twenty. It is just kind of an hour twenty to go up there. So check that out if you are looking for some fun this weekend, but welcome, Andy. Where do you live now, by the way?
Andy: I live in Washington City.
Jeremy: Washington City.
Andy: Yep, a new subdivision. Hobble Creek subdivision, and I have a beautiful home and really enjoy it. My only complaint is where our backyard backs up to 300 East there in Washington, so we are kind of looking to get something that is a little more secluded, a little off the busy road.
Jeremy: You know exactly what he is talking about.
Carl: I do.
Jeremy: Yeah. I know people who can help you. But –
Andy: I know you do.
Jeremy: — do that when you are ready to do that.
Andy: Yep.
Jeremy: Carl Wright. Welcome aboard.
Carl: Thank you for having me.
Jeremy: Yeah, I am happy to have you. We are going to have, so this is fun. We are going to have Carl today, and then we are going to have Carl and his entire team at my office at noon. His team, our team. Carl is with R1 Appraisals here in town. By the way, I need to have you guys go measure a home in New Harmony. That is after show, but –
Carl: Right.
Jeremy: — just so you know.
Carl: Love to do it.
Jeremy: We are listing an incredible, oh my goodness, incredible home in New Harmony. We will be placing this home on the market hopefully in the next week, and amazing views. Almost 5,000 square feet. Pretty cool home. So it has an entire detached guest house –
Carl: Wow.
Jeremy: — and when I went in it, it is like country home, like going into my home I grew up in with my mother. It is interesting, Carl, this is probably a great way to start this off, is they had the home on the market for six months with another agent, and they are very frustrated. Right? With an agent from Cedar City. So if you are in New Harmony, I want you to think through this. They listed the home with a guy from Cedar City because it was geographically closer by the mileage. But the issue is New Harmony is not in Iron County. It is in?
Carl: Washington.
Andy: Washington.
Jeremy: Bingo. So what they did is they hired somebody on the Iron County MLS to sell a home that is actually in Washington County. Now I am sure the home was on both Multiple Listing Services. And when we list your property and sell a property, we are always on Washington, Iron, and Wasatch MLS. We kind of go for the trifecta. But they were frustrated and then as we dug into this, it looked like everything was fine, and at a glance. So we do what is called a home marketing audit. And by the way, if you are selling a home right now, very quick plug, but it is not selling. That is the key is if your home is on the market and it is not selling and you are frustrated, I invite you to visit, this is kind of fun, we have a page that we have never talked about. It is called Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. Literally. Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. Go in there and plug in your critical information. This is not a solicitation of your listing. It is what called a home marketing audit. Maybe you are someone whose home just came off of the market, and it did not sell. Right? Let us know, and what we do is we just do an audit. And the audit is we look at three factors, which are marketing, condition, and pricing. And then, Carl, you know because you are a professional appraiser, that underneath those three, that canopy of three are probably another fifteen items. Right? So either marketing, the story that was told about your home was not compelling enough or it was not told to enough people. The condition, either the condition, the staging, or the location or all three were such that it was not compelling to a buyer. And or, and maybe all three factors were present, or the price of your home was such that either just buyers said sorry, there is something better for us at that price. Or maybe it was bracketed in a way that they did not, they did not see it. But we did this audit, and what do you think we found when we started looking through the square footage? The main floor was wrong. The basement was wrong. The upstairs was wrong. It was not reflective of a guest house. There is an entire detached guest house that is completely legal on the property that is about $150,000 to build that was not advertised.
Carl: Not presented. Yeah.
Jeremy: So it looked like everything was fine at a glance. I said, man, I do not know why this home has not sold. Then when we dug into it, so how often do you see data, Carl, as a professional appraiser that is just not accurate?
Carl: Oftentimes. Our job as an appraiser is to sift through all of the information that is out there and try to come up with a realistic value. We are looking at everything from marketing time. We are looking at the square footage. That is why we do not ever rely on what the county says or the, as far as square footage, bedroom, bathroom count. That is why we go in and we assess the property. We measure the property so we know what your square footage is. We will come up with your bedroom bathroom count. We look at your condition, the quality. We look at from your roof to your foundation and everything in between to determine how the market reacts to what components you have in your home, and then we come up with a value.
Jeremy: Okay, so this is kind of a fun question. Real estate agents, typically when they go to put a home on the market, they pull the square footage from where?
Carl: They usually use the county.
Jeremy: Correct. They just go to the tax records, and they go well, it says it is 4100 feet. How many appraisals have you done in your life, because you go out and you laser measure, you digitally measure where the square footage you actually measured in real life matched the county?
Carl: Hardly ever. It is usually —
Jeremy: Like 5%?
Carl: — maybe, I would say less than 5%. We are usually a little bit smaller –
Jeremy: Crazy, right?
Carl: — a little bit bigger than what the county says, which is, we use the outside measurements. You use ANSI standard of measurement, which means we measure from the outside corner to the outside corner. So we are usually a little bit bigger than what the county says, which is beneficial to people who are selling their home because then you get the actual square footage of what an appraiser is going to be using as their measurement, and then you can market your home at a slightly larger –
Jeremy: Right.
Carl: — so it behooves you a little bit to get an appraisal or have somebody come measure your home to determine what your actual square footage is.
Jeremy: Well, and Robert MacFarlane commented, good morning, Robert, it was missing almost 900 square feet.
Carl: Wow.
Jeremy: And it was 6 months on the market.
Carl: That is –
Jeremy: Ooops.
Carl: Let’s just say $100 a foot, right? That is $90,000 that they misrepresented in that.
Jeremy: Yeah, so this is kind of crazy. We are doing something we have not done in a while. We are taking this property on that was listed by another agent, and they came to us after it was no longer on the market. We are raising the price.
Carl: Wow.
Jeremy: And we do not do this very often, but we are actually going to, we believe that we can sell this home for more money than they were asking previously.
Carl: Wow. And that goes against the trend I am seeing right now, Jeremy.
Jeremy: Yep.
Carl: As I have looked at the market and looked at trends, we look at, as appraisers, we look heavily at absorption rates and months of housing supply and things like that. Something very interesting that I am seeing right now is 2018, there was a perfect storm. There were, interest rates were good. It was like the jet was taking off the runway –
Jeremy: Oh yeah.
Carl: — and we built speed all the way until September about, and I was talking to my business partner, Nick –
Jeremy: This is exactly what I noticed.
Carl: — and this is exactly how Nick put it is that the jet took off in September and started to level off in September of 2018, and now we are gliding.
Jeremy: Yep.
Carl: We are in a gliding mode right now, and we are in a transitional from being a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. We are seeing more months, more time on market. We are going from about a two-month inventory of homes to a three-and-a-half-month inventory of homes in the greater St. George area.
Jeremy: So let me throw a perspective in here. And when Carl talks about months of supply, right, or absorption rates, what he is saying is well, two months’ supply is really simple. It is how long, there was enough housing that if no one else listed a property, now I want, this is really important, if no one else put their home on the market, it would have taken two months to sell them all. Correct?
Carl: Correct.
Jeremy: The simplest way to look at it?
Carl: Correct.
Jeremy: Well now he is saying well now, we are at three-and-a-half. This is what throws people off. Three-and-a-half-months’ supply is still really strong market. It is a really strong market. But the issue is we are talking about the inventory going from two to three and a half. Right? Three and a half does not sound like a lot, but an increase from two months to three and a half months is a gigantic increase.
Carl: It is a big increase.
Jeremy: Make sense, you guys?
Andy: Yeah.
Jeremy: It is not like three and a half is a big supply. It is going from two to three and a half is a massive jump.
Carl: Yeah, and I found some more statistics. I was looking at the Washington Fields area, this is right where you live, Craig. In the Washington Fields area, I was looking at homes –
Jeremy: Or Andy.
Carl: Andy. Sorry.
Jeremy: Craig just walked out.
Carl: That is right. I am sorry, Andy. I apologize.
Andy: That is okay. No worries.
Jeremy: Craig is on his way back to Parowan to play in the snow.
Carl: Washington Fields, 2000 to 2500 square feet, the months of housing supply 12 months ago was 3.26. Right now, currently, there are 6.25 months of supply in Washington Fields between 2000 and 2500 square feet.
Jeremy: But I thought Washington Fields was one of the best markets in town?
Carl: It is one of the best markets in town, but that means everybody is trying to sell their home, and so if you are going to be competitive, if you have got your home listed right now, you really need to analyze do I really want to sell my home. If I really want to sell my home, then I probably should reduce the price by, I would say, by 5%.
Jeremy: Bingo, brother. What did I say to you on the phone when we chatted?
Carl: Yep.
Jeremy: 5%. Let me share something with folks here. Carl, I have got the Multiple Listing Service pulled up. Since January 1st, have you looked at how many properties I have listed, by the way? Washington County. And of course, I should say Washington County. This includes Iron County because it is on our Multiple Listing Service. So bear with me for a second. I am going to come in here to location and I am going to say Washington County since the first of the year. Now remember, folks, when you go to sell your property, you are saying I have the best home. Hey, I looked around. I looked at every, Andy, I was over there off of 300 East in Washington, I looked around. I feel like I have the best house on the quarter mile. That is nice. Here is the issue. 724 properties hit the market in Washington County since January 1st.
Andy: Wow.
Jeremy: 700 competitors. Right? Sounds about accurate?
Carl: Yep.
Jeremy: That is what MLS is telling me.
Carl: Yep.
Jeremy: And by the way, I am talking about homes. I am not even talking about lots. If I talked about lots and water shares, there is another how many you think? A couple hundred?
Carl: Couple hundred.
Jeremy: 724 properties hit the market in Washington County since January 1st. Right? That is 700 new competitors that came to the market. Andy, how long have you lived in that house?
Andy: Seven years.
Jeremy: So you have been there seven years. The reason I asked is that is what I thought you said. A lot of our listeners have been in their property 5-7 years, 7-10 years, because a lot of people moved into the market. Right, Carl? Like ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08. Some of them ’10. But here is what is interesting. Values have come up since seven years ago in Washington County, Carl, what percentage you think?
Carl: I think we are right around 40%, 36%.
Jeremy: Since then. Close to 40%. So while Carl is telling us a story that is accurate and he is telling the truth, inventory is almost doubling. It doubled in Washington Fields. Right? We went from three to six months. At the same time, if I had told you seven years ago that your home value would go up 40%, the home values would go up 40%, how many homes would you have bought?
Carl: Everything.
Jeremy: Every one of them, right?
Carl: (Indiscernible) Right.
Jeremy: You would have bought all the $5 bills for $3 that you could have purchased. Okay?
Carl: Yep.
Jeremy: Right? Which is the math.
Andy: Makes sense.
Jeremy: We are saying hey, I have got a sale on $5 bills. They are on sale for $3. How many do you want? I want them all.
Carl: Yep.
Jeremy: But we did not know that. Did we?
Carl: Right.
Jeremy: So talk to me about a trend here because seven years, I would love, I love that you are in studio at seven years. What seems to kind of happen every 6-8 years, Carl?
Carl: Usually, it trends up for seven years and then it trends down. And you look at –
Jeremy: It is biblical, by the way. Seven years of famine. Seven years of planting.
Carl: Right. If you look at the trends, we crashed in the third quarter of 2007. That is when the trend started to go downward here in Washington County. And it went down until 2011. In 2012, we started the trend upward, and how it went, what is the math? Seven years. 2012 is when we started to trend upward. Now, I am not saying there is going to be a big crash. I do not think there is going to be a crash, but we are going to be gliding through 2019.
Jeremy: How many appraisals have you done? You and your company?
Carl: Our company, since we have opened up in 2008, we almost 21,000 here in Washington County.
Jeremy: We have two minutes. Two and a half minutes. I want that to settle in for people. I have got Carl on the show today. 21,000 appraisals. You might want to listen. Right? You might want to listen. Here is what is so fun for me. Everything you are saying is echoing what I have been saying, which clearly makes me feel pretty happy this morning. So 5% across the board. We feel like values are probably 5% overcooked. We have seen inventory in Washington Fields double. Where else? Where else is inventory going up? Everywhere.
Carl: Everywhere. Everywhere, but not to be alarmed. I do not want this to be people that panic and think that there is, that I need to make a huge, a 5% price reduction is not a very big price reduction.
Jeremy: If I am a seller, what do I do today because I want to sell and take advantage of a great market?
Carl: You want to reduce it 5%. It is like chasing that ball down the –
Jeremy: We talked about this.
Carl: We talked about this. You do not, you just want to get ahead of the ball. It is going to calm down. Usually, our market is spurred by the Parade of Homes which is coming up next weekend. A lot of buyers come in. So we are going to see some more buying right in the next near future.
Jeremy: 60 days.
Carl: 60 days. And so, I suspect that jet is just going to coast through 2019. I do not see a big fall. I do not see a big rise. I see it stable for the next year.
Jeremy: What if somebody says I really do not trust my agent? I want to call you and get a third-party appraisal. What is it going to cost them and how do they call you?
Carl: We have got a variety of products that we offer people from $200 to $400 for a full appraisal for a typical home. If your home is a little bit bigger, we charge a little bit more, but that will give you a full valuation of letting us come in, and like you said, give you a diagnostic of why your house is not selling.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way guys, we talked about this fun website. I almost forgot for a while that we had even created it. We created it years ago. When the market was crashing, we created this page called Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. And when you go there, it is just a home marketing audit. And all you do is plug in your information, and then what we do is not a solicitation of a listing. I want to be very clear about that. We simply look at three categories: price, condition, and marketing. And we diagnose it. Right? We do an audit. I know no one likes an audit. But guess what? Would you, again, Carl, if I told you seven years ago that your value had come up, and Andy and everyone in this room, 40%, you would have said are you serious? But people want their value to have come up 45% and now they are frustrated. Are people going to miss out on this market because they are clinging onto last summer?
Carl: Yes, they will.
Jeremy: It is going to happen.
Carl: You have got to look forward.
Jeremy: How do they call you, Carl?
Carl: Our phone number is 435-627-0019. You can talk to anyone of our appraisers, me, Nick Lyman, Evan Wilkins, Jerry Johnson, Kenny Rawlings. We have got a whole crew over there that can help you.
Jeremy: Yep, R1. Literally, R the letter, 1 the number. You can Google it. Thank you, Carl.
Carl: Thank you for having me, Jeremy. Appreciate it. It is always a pleasure.
Andy: Jeremy Larkin with St. George Real Estate here on News Radio 94.9, 890, KDXU. Thanks, Jeremy.

St. George Economic Summit 2019 Recap with Jeriah Threlfall (St. George Real Estate Radio Show)

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike: KDXU news time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. Southern Utah morning news. Your time once again for another look at the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in wit the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, and I hope you are driving, all of you out there driving somewhere important. What time did you all get up this morning, guys? Chantry, I want to know about you. 4:30? Mike, that mic is not live and I just said Mike twice. I love it.
Chantry: How about now?
Jeremy: Mike, we have been talking about the mic. And Mike says the mic is live. All right. Love it. 4:30.
Chantry: 4:30.
Jeremy: Ouch.
Chantry: I know. Everyday. I cannot help it.
Jeremy: What time do you go to bed?
Chantry: Early. Like I am in bed by nine.
Jeremy: Okay, Mike, when did you get up? I want to know. He is not on the mic, but he is going to tell us. How early was it, Michael?
Michael: 4:45.
Jeremy: 4:45. He got up in 15 minutes, Jeriah. What have you got?
Jeriah: I cannot compete with that. Six o’clock.
Jeremy: Yeah, you know what? 6:30 for me. I have got Andy. Andy is the new guy in the studio today. We do not even have him on. Andy, when did you get up? Like seven. He was five. Okay. So he did not roll in here. Jeremy Larkin here. We have got the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I thought we should find out when everyone got out of bed this morning. Actually, the problem is I was not asleep, so I spent much of the last two hours of the morning thinking about, you know the psychology?
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: I should go to sleep. What is going on?
Chantry: Stressed yourself out. Yeah.
Jeremy: I do not know what is happening. Something must be weird. I do not know. Is the house going to cave in? Is my kid alive? This is the stuff that goes through your head. Right? Finally, at 6:30 I said maybe I should just get myself up, and that would help it. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. The voice of St. George Real Estate. Happy to be with you all this morning. It is raining, and it needs to be raining, by the way. We are in St. George, Utah, and if it does not rain and it does not snow for everyone who is bellyaching this morning, I am going to tell you something. There is not going to be any economic development because they are dry.
Andy: Yeah, water is a big thing. We need it for sure.
Jeremy: It is huge deal. So I have some friends, close friends and family, oh the rain. This is just the worst thing. You have to realize that in late January or February, and typically during the Parade of Homes –
Chantry: I was going to say it is going to wait until the parade, doesn’t it?
Jeremy: Typically, during the Parade of Homes it is going to rain for three straight days, but these are these soaking rains that give us the moisture that we need to run this community. So we are happy to do it. Today is January 17, 2019. I do not know how many times you all put 2018 so far on whatever your putting dates on, but I have definitely had a couple.
Chantry: Oh yeah, lots of times.
Jeremy: Well, yeah, you are doing mortgages. I have got Chantry Abbott here who is one of my very close friends and just an absolute amazing home mortgage lender. Someone who, he and his team, Steven Stout and the people at Guild Mortgage, they help people get the money they need so they can buy a home. And I have been having such fun discussions with my kids lately, my 12 and 13-year old. Because they will be like, Dad, how do you buy a house? What a great question. Dad, you do not have $300,000 laying around, do you? Well, no I do not. And then I get to talk about –
Chantry: That is cool.
Jeremy: Right.
Chantry: I have not done it for a while, but even a handful of years ago I had a college professor that taught finance. I would go teach him about credit even at the college level. That was kind of fun.
Jeremy: Oh yeah, it is. Right?
Chantry: Even now, adults do not have a clue yet still. Unless you have bought one, there is just no way to know.
Jeremy: There is no way to have any real kind of concept of that. So I have this conversation with my boys. Well, no, most people, some do, what percentage of deals are cash right now?
Chantry: I have heard like 40%. It is a lot.
Jeremy: It is a lot.
Chantry: We are always higher. The national average is probably more like 25.
Jeremy: It is a lot of cash deals, man.
Chantry: Southern Utah has always been high, right. Just because it is a big retirement, selling homes in California, it has always been a high cash market.
Jeremy: Right. Right because, and Jeriah says he is surprised. And if you think about this for a minute, gang, and we are going to introduce him better momentarily. A lot of these folks they have a home. Regular people, ooops, I knocked that right off. Regular people have a home in California. A regular home. Like regular folk, as they say. They buy a house for $250,000, $450,000. It now appreciates to $850 or a million and they go to sell it. They have been paying the mortgage down for 15 years.
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: And they show up in St. George with $500,000 in their hands. Right?
Chantry: Yeah.
Jeremy: And they look, it is different than you think. And they look really rich. Like man, these rich buyers from California. A lot of these people are regular people just like me and us and our listeners. These are not people who are so independently wealthy. They are just folks who bought at the right time, they held real estate. We have been talking on this show for five years that it is such an incredibly better decision. Chantry, you probably heard us talk about, maybe you have been on here, the average net worth of a homeowner over 60 years old, over 64 years old is $300,000, and the average net worth of a renter over 64 years old is five grand.
Chantry: Wow.
Jeremy: That is what Keeping Current Matters put out.
Chantry: When you speak about the average, a lot the California people –
Jeremy: There is no net worth.
Chantry: The average buyer typically what we see is they are retired on a pension. We get a lot of firefighter, retired policemen, school teachers, five grand a month pensions, not very good in Southern California, but here it is pretty good. They can do well.
Jeremy: Yeah, you are not doing anything in Southern California.
Chantry: So that is what happens is –
Jeremy: That is your property taxes.
Chantry: — they have to change.
Jeremy: So I have got Chantry Abbott here with Guild Mortgage. We have got Jeriah Threlfall. I love saying your name, and everybody does. I got up this morning and I just said it a lot of times so it could be easy. He is with St. George Economic Development. Do we call it the Economic Development Council anymore?
Jeriah: Yeah, sometimes we do. Economic Council office. Anything works.
Jeremy: I am going to put into my English, and I am going to let him correct me. But these guys work with really pushing healthy growth for St. George, and what we are talking about is economic development. Right? Bringing businesses in, especially value-added businesses. I am going to have define that momentarily for our listeners.
Jeriah: Okay.
Jeremy: And the reason I speak with fluency, right, because, you might remember, but my first career was with Gilbert Jennings and Larry Gardner. That was my first real career doing Fort Pierce Industrial Park. I got a lot of experience at the time. Scott Hershey. But these guys are looking to bring commerce to Washington County, jobs to where we live. So define value added, Jeriah, for us. What a value-added business is.
Jeriah: To keep it simple, historically, we have always looked for people that make something in our area and then it sell it to someone outside of our area.
Jeremy: Beautiful.
Jeriah: Just a really dumb-downed version of value added. We try to look for people who are not competing with established businesses in the area, and then recently, we have expanded as well. We are also looking for professional. We are having some good success going and recruiting, for example, like small engineering firms out of California.
Jeremy: Cool.
Jeriah: Need a place to relocate. It is interesting you were talking about a pension. Five thousand a month pension does not do as much for you in California as it does here. We have got companies where their engineers are making $160,000 a year –
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jeriah: — and they cannot buy a house.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jeriah: And they live four hours from the coast. It is not, they are not trying to buy a beach house.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are not on the water.
Jeriah: They are in a climate that is almost exactly like ours. Kind of a high desert. They cannot afford. The older, the people who have been at the company 20 years or so, they have their houses. They are okay. But the people coming out of college, unless the husband and the wife are engineers, they cannot buy a house at $160,000 a year.
Jeremy: Is that wild, Chantry?
Chantry: That is wild. Yeah. How many people in St. George do I meet that are making $160,000 a year? That is very few.
Jeremy: How many? How many a year? What percentage?
Chantry: A handful. Less than 1%.
Jeremy: Less than 1% that come through your mortgage office are making 160. Combined incomes.
Chantry: Yeah, probably combined household. Yeah.
Jeriah: Yeah, one of the companies that we have been working with is in Paso Robles. I think their median home price is like 675.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Chantry: So 675, what would you say ours is?
Jeremy: 300.
Chantry: 300. So yeah, more than double.
Jeremy: They might see 330 but 300 realistically. Because the median is the middle. Right? And Jeriah makes a great comment here about value-added companies. So for instance, Olive Garden is not a value-added company. Right? Because it is almost like to tell people, show people what it is not.
Jeriah: Right.
Jeremy: Talk to me about a company that is coming to St. George. Let’s talk about the economic summit from a week ago and then we can put this in perspective.
Jeriah: People who are coming right now? We have got a lot of people we are working with that we are still under confidentiality agreements with.
Jeremy: Okay, what type of business?
Jeriah: If you look at someone who presented at the summit was Ram, the Ram Company.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jeriah: Textbook. They are value added. They make their solenoids and their aircraft parts and all these things and they sell them all over the world. So they are taking money from other local economies and bringing it in to our economy.
Jeremy: Versus coming in and saying well, we are competing with all the other companies locally. They are really not.
Chantry: So value added, let me understand that one more time. They do not compete with somebody local.
Jeriah: They can and still be value added. We try. We are not going to go recruit someone who does the same thing Ram does.
Chantry: Ideally, not competitive, but (indiscernible)
Jeriah: For us. Yeah.
Chantry: But the main thing is they are exporting outside of our area, so they are bringing money into Washington County that Washington County is not paying for.
Jeriah: Fresh dollars.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Chantry: Wow. That is cool. I love that, too.
Jeremy: I love that. Fresh dollars. That is a good way to say it.
Chantry: I have known Jeriah for years. I have been to the Economic Summit for years.
Jeremy: You did his mortgage loan. Right?
Chantry: Yeah.
Jeremy: He did. Yeah.
Chantry: And we get this all the time. I get this all the time.
Jeremy: Even Jeriah had to borrow money to buy a house.
Jeriah: Just a little bit of it.
Chantry: People always say I wish St. George would get some jobs. It is like it is not lack of effort. It is just probably a long road.
Jeriah: It is.
Jeremy: Sure.
Jeriah: It is, and it is interesting that when the economy is down people are nervous to make a move because they are like things are down right now. And right now, we are facing the battle that the economy has been good for so long that people are afraid it is going to go down. And so, time is huge. We have got companies that have relocated to the area. Most of them have made initial contacts with us two years before. Sometimes you get a really quick one on a smaller-sized business, but we have got 13 projects in our pipeline right now.
Jeremy: Whew.
Chantry: What do you guys do to help the company?
Jeriah: It depends on how sophisticated they are on their own end. If they are a bigger company, they will have their own, like Family Dollar that just recently came here. They have their own site selection team. So, we help them. We make connections for them. We help line up state incentives, local incentives, anything we can do to help.
Chantry: So some of these companies can get state government incentives or local –
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: — money to help them come here.
Jeremy: And this is kind of cool. I am just throwing a thought in here. So, Family Dollar comes to down. Do you remember what they spent on that land? I am trying to remember. It was a ton.
Jeriah: It was a lot. It was right before my time, but it was a lot.
Jeremy: It was. So they come into town. They buy the land, which pumps tons of money in the economy.
Chantry: Yeah, think about how much that cost you.
Jeremy: They built this massive facility, which pumps tons of money into the economy. They create jobs. Right? Which is creating jobs. Then the facility is now using, has usage, uses things. It uses power, and of course, one of the number one reasons that these companies go to Fort Pierce is, Jeriah, drum roll, please.
Jeriah: Cheap power.
Jeremy: Cheap power.
Jeriah: Very reliable. Very good power.
Jeremy: Cheapest or second cheapest power grid. Was that what I remember?
Jeriah: In the nation. Yeah.
Jeremy: In the nation. Is that crazy, Chant? Dixie Escalante.
Chantry: So that is a big reason that they are coming.
Jeremy: Huge reason, man.
Jeriah: We are working with a company right now that is in Southern California. On this on, southern California helped us by taking their building for eminent domain.
Jeremy: They kicked them out.
Jeriah: So they are in a building they do not like right now. But yeah, just what we can safe them in power will cover the lease on a building here.
Jeremy: Could you imagine? Think about that. Just what they save in power, and that is Dixie Escalante right out there on Brigham Road in Bloomington.
Chantry: So I am just a mortgage guy. That is all I have done my whole life. I do not know any of this stuff. That is really interesting, I think, for the average person that is not involved in the development to think that the county is actually trying to give money, finding ways, grants, to bring these businesses. It is a tiny, tiny investment for the return the county is going to get probably.
Jeremy: Correct.
Jeriah: The way I think about it is 90% or more of all incentives that are given are actually just a return on the property tax that they are going to pay. So you take a vacant piece of land and whoever owns it is paying $2000 a year on property taxes. Making up easy numbers.
Chantry: Because they are just being taxed on the value of the land –
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: — which is not a lot.
Jeriah: Then you go throw a million-square-foot building for Family Dollar –
Jeremy: A million square –
Jeriah: — and all of it that entails and all of their equipment and everything, and now, they are not only paying $2000 in property tax. Maybe they are paying $100,000. So the incentive actually isn’t cash typically out of anyone’s pocket. They pay that property tax and say we, however it gets approved. I think each project, depending on the jobs they bring it and everything—
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: They may get 20% of that property tax back for the first five years. So it is not even new money. It is not taking –
Chantry: That is crazy.
Jeriah: — money out of our coffers, so to speak.
Chantry: The crazy part is we are making our money back on the property taxes. You did not even mention that. You mentioned jobs and employment –
Jeremy: Yeah, property taxes.
Chantry: — and building the building and all those other cool things that go along with it.
Jeriah: The companies that, I say we, Scott was here forever.
Jeremy: Sure.
Jeriah: For those that know Scott Hershey. He was here for 20, 21 years before I came in when he retired. The companies that our office has brought in over the last 25 years, the property tax, we went through just for fun once and added it all up, and then allocated it out. And for example, just those companies that we helped, let alone all the rest, contribute about $750,000 a year to the school in property taxes.
Chantry: And all property taxes are county-driven, right? Each city gets a little click, but you are mostly talking about the county?
Jeriah: Yeah, so the county gets, say out of this, I cannot remember the numbers. I should have brought them. Say it is a million dollars, just for easy, that these companies that we brought in pay in property tax per year. The county would get about $20,000 of that. Most of those companies are located in St. George, so they would get about $75,000 say. The school district, the library, the mosquito abatement gets like $2000 a year. All the different tax amenities, the water conservatory district gets some. Any taxing entity gets their portion –
Chantry: Very cool.
Jeriah: — and that is all set by, that is all pre-set.
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: When you look at your, when you get your property tax bill, you can go and look at the same thing. It says right on it what percentages, what multiplier, how much goes to the school district, how much goes to the –
Chantry: Jeriah is the monopoly man on a county level.
Jeremy: He is. He actually is. Utahopoly or whatever it is. You guys, I am going to ask both of you. So Jeriah is with, of course, St. George Economic Development. Chantry Abbott is a great lender here in town, and Chantry was at the economic summit last week. I was not. I was here. So give me the highlights. What do you feel like the highlights were? And Chantry, speak up, too, because you attended.
Jeriah: For me, the highlight was all the technology worked and there were no glitches because that is what I sit there and worry about the whole time. If the mics quit working or everyone has videos. It just stresses me out.
Jeremy: How many people attended, by the way?
Jeriah: About 900.
Jeremy: So you have got 1000 people almost. All of them on their phones. All of them on the free wi-fi.
Jeriah: Yes, we have issues before but the Dixie Center has upgraded and it went flawlessly this year as far as the technology goes. But I really felt like the keynote speaker in the morning, Shawn Nelson, the CEO of Lovesac –
Jeremy: Lovesac.
Jeriah: — just absolutely killed it.
Chantry: He nailed it, man. It was awesome. I loved it. He was my favorite part, too.
Jeremy: People said he was great.
Chantry: He is just very like super down-to-earth guy. Even kind of had some funny photos. You know the 10-year challenge that is going around right now?
Jeremy: Yes.
Chantry: Before the 10-year challenge last week, he had like three photos of him of when he was on, in fact, he was on a show with Richard Branson.
Jeriah: Yeah, the rebel billionaire.
Chantry: And he actually –
Jeriah: — with the bad hair. He kept saying –
Chantry: He wore it and had like, I want to describe whose hair, but I, it is like bleached, really long, like down to his shoulders, kind of a chubby-faced looking 20-year-old basically when he started this thing. It was cool.
Jeremy: Oh man. Boy-band hair.
Chantry: Yeah, and he is just making fun of himself, just really easy going.
Jeremy: Who are we talking to? It is his brother-in-law. Who are we talking to this week?
Chantry: Jeremy Back.
Jeremy: Jeremy Back. Thank you. It is Jeremy Back’s brother-in-law. Jeremy Back is my, really the only other Jeremy really in real estate right now, and the CEO of our brokerage.
Jeriah: Okay.
Jeremy: It is his brother-in-law. Classic. Okay, so Shawn Nelson was awesome with Lovesac.
Jeriah: Yeah, he really was amazing.
Jeremy: What is a takeaway from him?
Jeriah: His message is incredible as far as the sustainability of their business model. But the thing that I got the most I went home and told my kids that are little, inspiring entrepreneurs is that he never gave up. His first order was for 12,000 lovesacs, and he did not have a way to make them. So he went and got an agricultural loan and bought a tractor and a haybuster and used that to shred foam. So he got a USDA agricultural loan, drove it to downtown Salt Lake, parked his tractor outside the building, ran a pole in so he could turn the haybuster and shredded foam to make this order.
Jeremy: This is so good, man.
Jeriah: He had to put a ticket to Shanghai, China on his credit card so he could go order the fabric.
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: He did not know he could speak Mandarin Chinese thanks to his mission.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jeriah: So he was able to negotiate better than the average 20-year old.
Jeremy: Oh heavens.
Jeriah: It was incredible.
Jeremy: This is good.
Jeriah: It was a great story.
Chantry: Same thing and then I think the order wanted, the first company wanted a $60,000 deposit, which he did not have $600.
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: For the order. Right?
Jeriah: To the factory, the Chinese factories.
Chantry: He said well I am Lovesac, and I have never had to pay a deposit.
Jeremy: He put it out there.
Chantry: And they thought wait a minute. So they gave him the money because he just acted like he had it figured out.
Jeriah: The factory needed 60,000, so then he called the people who placed the order and he said yeah, I need the 60,000 deposit. They are like we do not do deposits. He is like well we have never done one without a deposit.
Chantry: I am Lovesac. I have never done a deal without a deposit. Which is true because he had never done a deal.
Jeremy: This is pretty funny.
Jeriah: He kept saying we are the best not beanbag company in the world. It was like him and his cousin.
Jeremy: Wow. I have to tell you that it is super helpful to me just a couple of thoughts you just shared there.
Chantry: And the journey he went through I think was the point Jeriah was making. Knowing how hard it was, would you start over and do it again? I do not know. It was, was it 20 years in the making and he has had a lot of, he has failed a lot of times and had a few really crazy successful moments.
Jeriah: Yeah, he showed pictures of the Lovesac Limo and then the restructuring and then the ups and downs. But the thing that I kind of relate everything to my kids and how interested they are in things. And the thing that I told them that I was really impressed with is that he had an idea and he got off the couch and did it. And that is his slogan is get off the couch, and it makes sense because get off the couch and onto a Lovesac, but it is also a life creed. How many 18-year-old kids, he tells it he was just sitting around eating a bowl of Captain Crunch like a week after school, and he was like how cool would it be if I had a beanbag that was as big as from me to the TV? And then he was like I am going to get in the car and go to Joann Fabrics and make a big beanbag.
Jeremy: We are going to do it.
Jeriah: And now he is the CEO of a publicly-traded company based off getting off the couch for that one good idea.
Jeremy: Yeah, a northern Utah kid.
Jeriah: Yep.
Jeremy: Born and raised in Utah at the risk of the risk. A Mormon kid. Right? They are not Mormons anymore. It is the Church of Jesus Christ, but truly a local kid. Not Richard Branson. Right? Not Bill Gates. Not Seth Godin, one of the great thought leaders that we follow. Because it is always somebody else. But what he is saying well, not really. Why does it have to be somebody else?
Jeriah: Yep.
Jeremy: Why can’t it just be anybody right off the couch right here? So what other highlights from the summit?
Jeriah: That was my favorite. Do you have anything you want to say?
Chantry: How many people normally do you have? It seemed, I have been to a few and it seemed sold out. It was awesome. A great turn out.
Jeriah: Yeah, we have been growing. We sold about 70 more tickets this year than we did last year. We are about the maximum.
Jeremy: You almost sold me one. Well, Dixie State D1. I do not want to miss that.
Chantry: Yeah, that is cool.
Jeremy: Dixie State announced they are Division 1. It was pretty cool this morning on my way, I live right downtown, Jeriah, close to our office. I am by Town Square, so I take a kid to Tonaquint and then I take a kid to Dixie Middle, and then I come back up to the show. It was fun to see the one up here with the light where the D was not lit up and then you could see the one was completely temporary.
Jeriah: Yeah, it was pretty exciting.
Jeremy: Right. So Dixie State is going Division 1, which, what does it really mean for the university and the town? In a simple overview. Better athletic opportunities, of course, and athletics in college is money to the college.
Jeriah: For me, and I do not speak for the whole university or town or anything obviously, but for me, I think it validates it. There is no higher level –
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: — and so we all have believed in Dixie State University clear back when it was the high school, the junior college, the everything in between. The thing that I am excited is to be able to watch them compete against the top level in sports or anything else.
Jeremy: Right, and just for fun, Division 1, just because I know a lot of out, I know you are a sports fan, but a lot of listeners would not know this. So to give you perspective, when we are talking about Division 1, here are your top five ranked football teams – Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgia. That is Division 1.
Jeriah: Right.
Jeremy: So even the non-sports fans are like oh, that is Division –
Chantry: We are one of those.
Jeremy: — yeah.
Chantry: Dixie is one of those now.
Jeremy: We are going to get killed in the short-term at sports.
Jeriah: At first. Well, the nice thing, I was at, they announced that on Friday at the university and they had all the student athletes come.
Jeremy: Cool.
Jeriah: And I was just standing there waiting to talk to somebody, and I heard a couple of the athletes talking about now they are Division 1 athletes and just the pride that they felt in that, that they get to compete at that level for the next four years.
Chantry: That is a good point because if you are high school kid, you want to be able to say hey I went D1. It is top, top level. That is cool.
Jeriah: Yep. I think it is a great thing. It is a great opportunity for all of the students. It is a great opportunity for our town. For me in economic development, it is huge too because anything you can do to get outreach and get some notoriety, and people ask questions like that. It is not, the number one concern is is my business going to be profitable? Can I succeed there? But then right away, they typically go to the university and the culture that it brings.
Jeremy: Yep.
Jeriah: That is where you are going to get most of your plays and your concerts and your sporting events and all of these things and being Division 1 is going to be a good thing for us.
Chantry: So what Division 1 schools are there in the state? BYU? Utah? Weaver? Logan?
Jeriah: Yep. SSU.
Chantry: SSU is D1. And then Dixie.
Jeriah: Utah Valley.
Chantry: They are D1 as well?
Jeriah: Yeah, so we will be in their conference now. And that is the amazing thing is when this started being talked about, we –
Jeremy: Ten seconds.
Jeriah: Because no one thought we could get into a conference and we got –
Chantry: How cool.
Jeremy: By the way, I was a Dixie State graduate when it was a two-year college.
Chantry: Same here.
Jeremy: Got my associate’s degree. You got your associate’s degree.
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: Jeriah Threlfall, thank you, man.
Chantry: So cool.
Jeremy: Chantry Abbott, thanks for being in here. Folks, Mike is going to give you some contact information if you have got real estate questions. We will help you in 2019. Thank you.
Mike: Thanks for joining us. If you would like to know more about St. George Real Estate, give them a call at 275-1690 or Sold in St. George dot com.


$1 Home Sale Program and GLUT of Homes Hitting The New Year’s Market (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)

If you prefer to view and comment on Facebook vs. the YouTube video above, click here: Facebook Live. 

Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Jeremy: Happy New Year. By the way, that was one of my favorite elements of the new year is we were at the grocery store last night at the Winn’s down there in the Washington Fields, and people are so fun. The produce guy was really cool. Theywere having a debate about sauerkraut by the way. I was a cilantro fan –
Jesse: What is there to debate about sauerkraut?
Jeremy: Well, I do not like it.
Jesse: Oh, okay. So that is in debate?
Jeremy: Yeah, it was a debate. Yeah, it was a debate. And then the produce guy started kind of pitching the sauerkraut. He was a great guy. And then as we walked away, he said Happy New year. I love that about the holidays. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. It is fun.
Jesse: I would like to see it if people could keep that attitude or thought all year round. Why not be happy every day?
Jeremy: Yes, thank you.
Jesse: Well, I have been accused of that.
Jeremy: You do get accused of it, and you resemble the comment, and I will tell you that it is very similar to the whole 9/11. Remember when 9/11 happened –
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: Suddenly everyone in the country was fearful believer in God and very patriotic. That lasted about twelve months. But good morning to everyone out there. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got multiple co-hosts in here. I have got Jesse Poll from the Larkin Group. Mike McGarry is here.
Jesse: I told Mike this morning we are happy he is back.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is nice to have him here.
Jesse: We do not like it when he is gone.
Mike: I will hang around for a little while.
Jeremy: Yeah, he has just has this thing dialed in. Yeah, I know. He is going to hang around about 30 days.
Mike: Pretty close to that, yeah.
Jeremy: Good morning, David. Love it man. Love it. 343 never forget. Absolutely right, David. Isn’t amazing, by the way, Dave, and Dave is a fireman, and one of my childhood friends. Literally, our families go way back. But this is not a political show. But it was crazy how patriotic and God-fearing we were for about twelve months and –
Jesse: And really how –
Jeremy: Then we were just like ah, we are busy now.
Jesse: And really how the country really came together.
Jeremy: The country came together. I will tell you. Crisis a very, very interesting gift and teacher for us. Is it not, Jesse?
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: I want to share some New Year’s Resolutions. We ran a little Facebook thing where we said are you believer in New Year’s resolutions. I am going to share my theme for 2018. I think our listeners want to know what my theme is. Don’t you? Does anyone know, please say you do, The Christmas Story? I have it almost memorized, the movie The Christmas Story.
Jesse: We actually did not watch that this year.
Jeremy: It was on TBS and TNT for 24 hours straight. You do not even have to have the DVD, but I do have the DVD. So on the Larkin Group Facebook page, by the way, we will announce our winner this morning.
Jesse: Right on.
Jeremy: Somebody won $50 cash. The $50 cash is sitting –
Jesse: $50.
Jeremy: — on my desk.
Jesse: I saw that sitting on your desk.
Jeremy: Yeah, sitting on my desk.
Jesse: I thought it was for me. A gift.
Jeremy: Sorry, dude. Sorry. Sorry. Sitting on my desk. $50 cash. So I asked the question New Year’s resolutions or no? Chime in. Chime in. And I thought that this was very fun. We will talk about real estate. We are going to talk about selling a home for $1, and what happens every, $1. This is like, you know what you can get for a buck? You can get a drink at McDonald’s.
Jesse: Can you really still?
Jeremy: Oh, all the drinks are 99 cents. You can get some chicken nuggets. You can get a little French fry, a small shake, a parfait. Okay?
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: I do not even think you can purchase a pack of gum almost anywhere for 99 cents.
Jesse: I do not think so.
Jeremy: We will talk about that.
Jesse: Very few things can you buy for a dollar.
Jeremy: Yeah, for a buck. We are going to talk about $1 home sale program because we decided to have some fun in January. It is just for fun. But people, this is so interesting to hear what people said. Mark said yes. Natasha said yes, but not so much traditional New Year’s goals. More like intending to improve myself. I have chosen a word for the year. That is mine for the year. Mine is build. Relationships. Build our business. Build each other up. Beautiful. One of our past clients.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: McKennon, did you know your daughter chimed in?
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: Yes, absolutely. We never know where we are going, but we always know where we have been, and we need new goals to set new heights to see how far we can get. It is all for naught. Is life even worth living? Right? I said kind of. What I do not like is the resolution because it is usually like a two-week campaign. I like more what she is saying which is we are looking, that idea of build. I love having a word for the year, and I have a theme, which I will share. But for me it is more like the new year is such a gift for new beginnings, and to kind of rethink and say where I have been. We know where we have been, she said. Andrew Young, absolutely yes. Cassie Segmiller, yes. Brett and Natalie Johnson, yes, and on and on. But let’s go ahead and let’s give congratulations to Cassie Segmiller who won the drawing for fifty bucks.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: Yeah. We will respond on Facebook to her today. So here goes, Jess. I do not know how you say it. He is one of the famous, what do you call him, he is Tao. He is a Taoist. He is a Taoist. T-A-O. It is one of my favorite quotes. Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. So that is my theme for the year. Rather than a word, it is this idea of monitoring how my thoughts become my words and actions and habits and character and destiny and how much we mess ourselves up.
Jesse: Without even knowing it.
Jeremy: Oh, we do not even know it.
Jesse: This stuff happens so gradually that one day we wake up and realize that somewhere over the last 20 years I have become somebody I do not really want to be.
Jeremy: Yep, yep. So yeah, like the boiling pot of water. So hey, happy January. We are waxing a little philosophical, but guess what? It is our show. We will talk about whatever we want to talk about. Right, Jesse?
Jesse: It is your show. I will just follow along.
Jeremy: It is my show. Good morning. So gang, you need to understand that we actually are now broadcasting. There are, I wish I had my other phone. I would take a picture.
Jesse: Yeah, where is your other piece of technology. You do not have enough here.
Jeremy: I have another phone in my car. There are two phones on the countertop right here in two different tripods. One is broadcasting Facebook Live, and one is broadcasting YouTube Live.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: So if anyone ever wanted to know where you could watch this on YouTube Live, I should have put that in the comments. It is YouTube dot com, of course, but it is Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV. We have got about 1300 subscribers there or something, and we have done very little live. So if you want to be on YouTube Live and that is your preference, see our YouTube channel Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV or hang out on Facebook Live, and of course, all of our radio listeners, you are already on with us at 94.9FM, 890AM. Jesse, it is January 3rd, and there is a phenomenon that happens, especially in St. George because the Parade of Homes is six weeks from now.
Jesse: It is coming right up.
Jeremy: What is happening? You brought some data this morning.
Jesse: The data –
Jeremy: Every January.
Jesse – that I brought this morning is peanuts compared to what is coming.
Jeremy: Can I show them?
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: Anyone who is looking. This is his data. Three days.
Jesse: During the last –
Jeremy: I hope everyone is looking at this.
Jesse: Hey, every genius scribbles.
Jeremy: It is a 4×7 –
Jesse: Ask Einstein.
Jeremy: — scratch paper. I like it.
Jesse: In the last three days you have had 36 homes hit the market.
Jeremy: Last four days or two days? It is really two days.
Jesse: Two days. Yeah. So since the first. The first and second.
Jeremy: But there was not a first. See, the first did not exist. You could not put a home on the market.
Jesse: That is true. Because everyone was off.
Jeremy: That means in the last 24 hours 36 homes hit the market.
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: I did not mean to correct you, but –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — if you think about this –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — one day 36 homes hit the market. Holy cow. Okay?
Jesse: And what is coming over the next two months will be probably 1100 homes. I am pretty sure last year it was about 1100 homes between January and February.
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: But before the Parade of Homes, and by March, that number will be 1500.
Jeremy: 1500.
Jesse: Every year.
Jeremy: 1500.
Jesse: And it is just gearing up for our spring season. Especially the Parade of Homes.
Jeremy: I am just looking at some of this data myself. Wow.
Jesse: One thing that is interesting. We have been talking about this is the price reductions. I went and pulled those. There have been 29 reduced prices in the last two days.
Jeremy: Twenty-four hours.
Jesse: Well, this is from the 31st because some of us did work Monday.
Jeremy: Define a price reduction for the listeners.
Jesse: That is somebody that is on the market currently, and they have reduced their price because they realized they were too high.
Jeremy: Yeah. Because look if the market is not supporting what you are buying, what you are selling –
Jesse: What you are selling then you have got –
Jeremy: Yeah, it is very simple. There is Dillard’s had their big annual sale. Oh man, I wanted to go. I am such a shopper. Every January 1st, New Year’s Day, a lot of retailers are closed. They put all of their clearance on 50% of the clearance price, and the place is like a zoo. Right? Well, why? Because the product has not sold –
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: — and new product is coming into the store, and the challenge you have as a homeowner is that new product is coming in the store –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — and it is called other people selling their house. Right? So this has happened for how many Januarys in a row?
Jesse: Geesh.
Jeremy: All of them?
Jesse: Yeah, probably since the Parade of Homes started.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah.
Jesse: Because that is really what drives January and February is the Parade of Homes. So how long ago did that start? 20-25 years ago?
Jeremy: Yeah, and I want to be clear about this. He said it drives it. It drives people’s psychology. It does not actually drive sales in St. George.
Jesse: It does not drive the market, but it drives them wanting to be on the market by then.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, this is absolutely true, and it will be interesting to see because we had, for instance, one luxury real estate firm here in town put five homes on the market yesterday. Cancelled the listings in the fall, late fall, and they put them back on yesterday because the belief of every seller, and by the way, if you want to see a video of me talking about that from the chair lift at Bryant Head yesterday.
Jesse: Oh, a new one?
Jeremy: Yeah, you can check it out. A rash of luxury homes hitting the market after January 1. What does this mean? Published 18 hours ago. So I shot a video yesterday at Bryant Head. I was with my kids because the kids all went back to school this morning. Second greatest day of the year, by the way. First greatest day is when they go to school in August.
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: And it was interrupted by a phone call, which was fun. The live video. But you might want to check that out. It is right on the Larkin Group Facebook stream. Just look up the Larkin Group and you will find us. But I said what does this mean? Well it means that people believe –
Jesse: That they will sell their home during the Parade.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: They believe that more high-end, first of all, high-end buyers come for the Parade. And that might be true. But are they really buying homes?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: But people really believe that not only can they get a buyer at that time of year, they can get a buyer that will pay extraordinary prices.
Jeremy: Yeah. Oh yeah. Right. Let me share something cool with you folks. If you hop on our Facebook stream, we have, so we have been on this show for almost six years.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: Five plus years we have been on the radio.
Jesse: Has it been that long?
Jeremy: It has been a long time, and we have been delivering content via the show, via Facebook, we have a really great video blog, and a lot of our listeners have received those video emails. I am looking at our Facebook stream. This is just the last few days. Excited about buying a home this year? Here is what to watch. These are articles that we have produced.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: Let me share a few more. Selling For Sale By Owner. Questions and comments and concerns. Where is the market headed in 2019? Where is it headed? How to save thousands of dollars in interest on your mortgage. What makes a house a home for you and more and more. We have produced so much content for so long. And by the way, where is the market headed in 2019? A couple of things that we will give you, and then we are going to tell you about something really fun that we are doing. And folks, if you enjoy our program, we are going to ask you for your help today. For the amount of content that we put out compared to the ratio of that to asking for help is pretty low, pretty high to content and low asking for help. Where is the market headed in 2019? This is a really great infographic that we have on our Facebook stream, and again, look up the Larkin Group or Facebook dot com slash The Larkin Group. So what do they predict? They predict that home prices will appreciate across the country 4.8%. Historic home appreciation is 3.6, averaging all the years together.
Jesse: Averaging –
Jeremy: Every year.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: 4.8%. St. George? Jesse says yes. I say no.
Jesse: Yeah, we have a debate there. It is going to interesting next January when we pull, when we come out to really see what happened this year.
Jeremy: Yeah, I say no. I say that we are not going to have any appreciation in Washington County. I think we are going to be exactly static. Interest rates have risen, but they are currently at the lowest point that they have been in six months.
Jesse: Yep, they just went down again.
Jeremy: Yeah, guys, the lowest point in six months. Interest rates right now. Interest rates, amazing, so home prices, Core Logic, which is like the biggest national prediction type firm saying 4.8% appreciation. All four major reporting agencies believe that total home sales will out pace 2018. That is interesting. And interest rates are projected to rise. Are projected to rise. However, let us remind you that in the year 2000, interest rates were 6.2%. In 1990, they were 8.1%. In 1980, they were 12.7%, and in 1970, 8.86. We are so far below everything. Now, I produced a video that has not been released yet, and it is about seven and a half minutes. It is four things you have to know about St. George Real Estate moving into 2019. It is upcoming, forthcoming. It will be on our YouTube channel and on our Facebook page in the next week. So, Jesse, the homes that hit the market this morning. Price ranges?
Jesse: Well, you have got six of them under 250, and that is going to be a problem for your average worker here in St. George.
Jeremy: So only 6, 36 homes hit the market, and only 6 of them –
Jesse: Were under 250.
Jeremy: — were under $250,000.
Jesse: Which is where your average worker can afford a home.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: You have got six between 250 and 300. That is a pretty good number. That is pretty solid.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: You have got seven between $300,000 and $400,000, six between four and five, and then 11 over 500,000.
Jeremy: Holy smoke. Eleven –
Jesse: Eleven.
Jeremy: — of the 36. So our greatest, over $500,000.
Jesse: Actually, let’s break that down. You have got 3 between 5 and 6, and then 8 over 600.
Jeremy: So I need to say, folks, that is going to be a problem. Just so you know. It is going to be a problem for the average, like you say, the average worker.
Jesse: Yeah, because your average household –
Jeremy: I actually like the word worker. It is like the average, typical, employed human being.
Jesse: Right because your average household income in Washington County is 50,000.
Jeremy: Yep.
Jesse: So somebody making $50,000 a year, how much house can they afford?
Jeremy: 210.
Jesse: Right, so that is –
Jeremy: Maybe 250. If they have a good down payment, 250. So that will be a challenge, and I am here to explain to our luxury homeowners in Washington County, it is going to be tougher than you think it is, and you had better take the job of selling your home very serious. And if you are thinking oh well, this sounds negative, maybe it is not the year. No, remember values are at their highest point in ten years.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: We are at the top. You know the waves out in the ocean if you have been on the ocean. They grow up and they go down. Kind of like when you swim out from the shore 50 yards, and you are floating out there with your friends.
Jesse: Especially –
Jeremy: We are at the top.
Jesse: Yeah, especially up in the higher price points because if you, once you step over $600,000, the amount of inventory just increases astronomically. It goes from 4 to 5 to 18 months.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are at the peak, so you had better take that very serious and work with an agent who is very serious about telling you the, it is funny, there is a script that we use in real estate. We are trained to use it. Hey, Jesse, on a scale of 1 to 10, how honest can I be with you? Well, what do people always say?
Jesse: They say ten until you do it.
Jeremy: There is a reason we are trained to ask this.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Because we have to set up the homeowner to actually hear the truth. Hey Jesse, do these pants make me look fat? You are like the fact that you asked me that means that you already knew the answer. Right? The seller, does your price make you look fat and greedy? Kind of. It sounds so terrible, but here is why this is so important. Because if you are thinking well, isn’t it marketing that is going to sell my home? Oh, it is marketing with the right price, and if you are not priced correctly, you will not sell your luxury home in 2019. It is not happening.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: You will spend the next year of your life, you hear the passion, folks. I emphatically, you will not sell your home if you are not very competitive in that luxury home market. There is so much inventory. We are talking about years, and the market is at its peak.
Jesse: I cannot tell you –
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: — how many homes in the luxury market that we have seen that have been on the market for a year or two off and on.
Jeremy: But we have seen homes that have been on 500 or 1000 days.
Jesse: What is interesting is that even the worst market, luxury homes sold within four months. Very rarely does it take a year to sell a home.
Jeremy: You are right. You are absolutely right. This is just a completely different market than say downtown St. George. All right. We are doing something fun.
Jesse: All right. Let’s do this.
Jeremy: McDonald’s Dollar Value Menu. The Larkin Group Dollar Menu. The Dollar Menu. Okay.
Jesse: We have a Dollar Menu now.
Jeremy: So here is what you have to do. Yeah, we do. And the dollar menu is just like this. We have got a program that we are running for January only. So I was sitting there over the holidays thinking why are we not having more fun? Seriously. We are dealing with people who are stressed out.
Jesse: Yeah, they are.
Jeremy: Think of some of the transactions we are dealing with right now. Folks, a domino succession, chain, they can only, we have a client. Incredible people who, think about this, the spouse is going to pass away in the very near future because of some serious health elements. The other spouse cannot physically afford to live, will be homeless or bankrupt if they do not sell the home now because the retirement and Social Security will go away when the husband passes away.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: They have to sell the home. They cannot live somewhere if they do not sell the home first, but if they do not sell the home, she is going to be homeless. And by the way, prices are high in St. George, so now they are trying to figure out what she can possibly afford at her new income. Do you see this? And, of course, then you are depending on the buyer if their home, it is crazy. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, it is kind of emotional.
Jeremy: So then you have another seller on the other end who is hoping these people close on their sale so they can make the purchase of their home. It is very complicated. So I said why aren’t we having more fun? So we are going to have more fun. You can sell your home for as little as one buck. Now you do not need to sell it in January. You just need to enroll in the program in January. $1. I do not have time to get into all the details, but I will give you the one detail. The absolute specific criteria is you have to buy another home through us. And by the way, do you know that when you buy a home, you do not pay a commission? Because remember the seller pays the commission.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: There are other terms and conditions. You have to be born in 1957. You have to have an odd number ending your Social Security number, and you have to have sandy blonde hair. I am kidding. You know those crazy, it is actually not that crazy. The terms and conditions are not crazy at all. But you do need to buy another home through us because we are literally going to charge on the listing side a dollar if you buy another home through us. Meaning no income for us on the listing side. Okay? Here is an alternate. If you are not buying home through us, we said okay, then what can we do? Because we want everybody to win.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: If you are not buying another home through us because meaning you are going to rent a home or you are moving out of town, you still can save up to $10,000 selling your home. And you will save no less than $1250. Right?
Jesse: Yep, $1250.
Jeremy: One thousand two hundred and fifty dollars at the lowest price point. It is based on price point. Most of our clients are going to save $2,500 selling a home. That is the most typical segment will be at $2,500.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: There is no gimmick. There is no qualification. If you sign a listing agreement with the Larkin Group in January, you will be getting that discount or you can be in the dollar program. And by the way, both apply. So the dollar programs applies if you are trying to buy another home. You can work through both. Now, here is the deal. We made a goal. We sat down as a team several days and said what do we want to do? And last year we helped about 180 clients buy and sell real estate. We decided we were going to procure 90 families in 90 days, in the first 90 days of 2019. We decided that for our families, now again, folks, earlier I said we have given you this content for years and years and years, and we are asking for your help. We are asking today for you to be mindful of the Larkin Group as, 90 in 90 is almost unheard of. Okay?
Jesse: Very few people –
Jeremy: Very few people have pulled this off. We want to find 90 great clients like yourself that need our services. It is a win-win situation. We are doing the dollar home sale program or the save up to $10,000. If you or someone you know has thought about selling, we are asking will you send them to us?
Jesse: Have them give us a call.
Jeremy: Will you let us talk to them? You do not have to commit them to anything. There is no obligation to talk to us, but you can reach us on Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts or at Sold in St. George dot com. It is going to be fun to report what happens when we get to the end of these 90 days to see what we do. We are going to have a good time this year.
Jesse: It is going to be fun.
Jeremy: It is going to be a great year in St. George real estate. Hope you guys can help us, and we will guarantee we will help you. Thank you.

The SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE About The Real Estate Market (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Radio Show)

 

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike:  KDXU News Time.  It is 8:36 of the news time morning news, and welcome.  Glad to have you with us.  Thursday morning. And of course, that means it is time one again for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.

Jeremy:  Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, girls, boys, real estate fans.  I can definitely declare that I am going to be stopping at Daylight Donuts on my way by this morning.  I just had that inspiration coming up Bluff Street.

Jesse:  Then you have got to do it then.

Jeremy:  I know.  I realize it may not be the best choice. We will see.  Let’s see how I feel in 24 minutes. We will see how I feel then.  It is a wonderful day.  I have got Jesse Poll, Jesse Poll in studio with me.

Jesse:  J.C.?

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  You can call me whatever you want.

Jeremy: Yeah, I have got JC, my good friend, here.  Good morning to all of our lovely listeners and Facebook friends and fans and people.  It is going to be a great day, and part of the reason we know that is if you look outside you can actually see, hair in my eye here, sorry. You can actually see downtown.  I can see all the way. You can see a big old shower coming down the way and some sun rays coming through them.

Jesse:  It is nice.

Jeremy:  It is incredible.  The famed, famed Larkin Group Fall and Dixie photo that has just been going around for forever and ever and ever, we actually have a client. Remember Quuntin and Mori Jensen?  Did you, you did not know them.

Jesse:  I did not know them.

Jeremy:  So they are moving back from Virginia and how I noticed that on Facebook the other day is that they had posted this photo, and if our listeners do not know what this photo is I guess I can throw this into the feed this morning. But it is a picture we had taken in 2009 by Danny Lee.  Danny is a really great professional photographer here in town and did just a ton of work for us for a lot of years. Larry Gardner, a little back story. So this is going to be fun this morning, excuse me, but I am. So Larry is a friend.  I grew up in the neighborhood that he was one of the dads. Right?  So his kids are my friends.

Jesse: Okay.

Jeremy: And then he was my boss. One of my bosses.  He is a City councilman and a really well-known guy, and so he took a photo of this shot.  And the shot is you drive up Airport Hill.  Okay?  What they call it.  Right?  Just to the top, almost to the old airport, which is now where the Cliffside Restaurant is, and he took this photo.  And it was probably 2004 of downtown and it was just in this epic color, and it was right after a rainstorm and everything was clear, and the color was really vibrant.  Well, it was not a professional photo.  It was a good photo, and years later, it was November.  It was good, and we used it in our marketing, but it had some power lines running through it.

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  And then years later on a November day, I called Danny and I said what are you doing?  Well, I am in St. George.  I just shot a home, photographed a home.  Well, could you go up to Airport Hill in like 10 minutes?  He said yeah.  He went up to the hill and 15 minutes later we had this photo, and it has been featured on more Facebook pages and yard sale pages.  When I saw the Jensens, now segueing back, I knew they were moving back from Virginia because what photo did they post to say guess what everyone, we are moving back to St. George.

Jesse:  I am going to tell on myself for a second here. I do not even know if you know this, but did you know that I stole that idea before we met?  For my sign.

Jeremy:  No.

Jesse:  I went up to my friend’s house –

Jeremy:  I remember.  I remember.

Jesse: But it was my photo.

Jeremy:  We disapproved. We saw.

Jesse:  I did not even know it was you.

Jeremy: Oh, it was us.

Jesse:  I saw this sign and I am like wow, that is gorgeous.  How could I get one like that? So I went up to my friend’s house with my phone and took it.

Jeremy:  Oh, I remember.  I remember, Jesse.  We knew you before you knew us.

Jesse:  And do you know where those signs are now?

Jeremy:  In the garbage?

Jesse:  No, my sister-in-law painted them. We have this, the next time you come to my house you will see it.  It says the cottage.  This beautiful sign.

Jeremy:  I did not know this.

Jesse:  I have not hung it yet because we were still working on it.

Jeremy: Oh, that is classic.

Jesse:  But she painted them all.  For each, she did one for everybody’s house.

Jeremy: I am glad you came to work for us instead of –

Jesse:  Beautiful.

Jeremy:  — instead of competing.

Jesse: Right.  Competing with the sign. Mine still was not as pretty though because it was reflective, and it is in the details.  Right?

Jeremy:  The devil is in the details.  Hope we have got some friends watching.  Comment and say hello if you are watching this morning and let us know that you are out, and you are listening.  So I want to share with you guys something that is going on.  That is the background. And we will share that.  We will actually throw that photo on the Larkin Group Facebook page this morning.

Jesse: It is a nice photo. It is so nice people try to steal it.

Jeremy:  Yeah, it has been on postcards.  There are some jerks around town that thought they could take our photo.  That is the situation, guys.  It could be worse.  By the way, if you are lamenting that it is cool or not, it is just not early Fall anymore, you could have snow.  And it is snowing all over the place.

Jesse:  And they do have snow in Cedar City. My wife called me last night on her way back from work and said it is snowing.

Jeremy:  Woo, buddy. We do not want that. We do not want that.  Today, we are going to share with you, just so you know, as we get the show rolling, we are going to share with you what I believe is really the most important, single most important message that you can receive in real estate. And when I say most important message, I mean in any market.  And when I say any market, Jesse, what I mean is any city.  Okay?

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  And in any market condition. Right?  Whether the market is going, generally the public understands real estate as the market is either going up or it is going down.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  That is kind of how that works.  Well, is the market going up or is the market going down? We are going to share with you the single most important message that you could possibly have in real estate.  There is nothing more important to you as a buyer or a seller than this message that we are going to share today.  Okay?  Which is something more than Happy Holidays.  Is that fair enough for you?

Jesse:  Oh, happy days.

Jeremy:  This truly is something that is important.  So I wanted to share something that is kind of fascinating.

Jesse:  That was for Jessica Marron, by the way.  Her and I –

Jeremy:  Good morning, Jessica.

Jesse:  You never know when either of us is going to start singing —

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  — or dancing.

Jeremy:  That is exactly right.

Jesse:  She is my kindred spirit.

Jeremy:  I think she is a lot of people’s kindred spirit.  Good morning to her.  Gang, if you are a skier or a snowboarder, Bryant Head Resort, I was just mentioning when the live feed started, and we were just kind of in here getting mic’ed up, Bryant Head is getting some snow. Finally, getting some snow.  They opened last weekend.  I never miss opening day ever.

Jesse: And you did.

Jeremy:  Two weekends ago. I absolutely missed opening day. They opened actually the weekend before Thanksgiving, and then I missed the weekend after. It is looking like I will miss this weekend as well. So this is pretty rarified stuff for me, but it is what it is.  If you go to Bryant Head dot com, it is fun.  They have three live webcams and I watching it right now in studio, panning left and right, and it is dark, and it is overcast still a little bit up there.  Lights are on. It is really cool because the storm has set in up there.  So check that out.  Skiers and snowboarders, we are really only an hour, it is an hour and a half if it were a snowy day and you were taking it easy.  I do not tend to take it very easy when I travel to Bryant Head.  I am usually in a hurry. I call it 75 minutes for sure coming back and usually about 80 going up. So Bryant Head dot com. I hope that everyone has got their skis shined up, grab a stick of Juicy Fruit.  Remember those ads? I do. I remember those ads very, very —

Jesse:  Juice Fruit.

Jeremy:  — yep, very distinctly, and these people were skiing over in Colorado. That was a good time.  All right, let’s talk about real estate, shall we?

Jesse:  Let’s do it.

Jeremy:  Jesse, I had this crazy, last night I was playing around, and I am absolutely not going to mention the homeowner’s name.  But I saw a property that was in Stonecliff that was on the market.  And when I looked at the property, this is kind of interesting. So, this home has been listed one, two, three –

Jesse:  Two, three, four, five, six —

Jeremy:  — four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve times.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy: So there is a property that has been on the market twelve times, and that is with a variety of real estate agents, starting in 2008, it is now 2018. So for a decade, literally for a decade, and if I count up the days, two, three, four, the home has legitimately been on the market probably 1500 days over the last decade in Stonecliff.  For our listeners out there, if you have not sold a home, this is so mind-boggling if you are the homeowner.  Right?  Because you start to say what is possible, and I see the price started at one point, I am just going to say six.  The price started at $1.6 million, and it has come down a third of that, and down below that, and then it has come back up. Here is the challenge. When we have a market that has appreciated for the last six years but your price has come down a third over the last ten years, this does not make sense.  Right?  So all of the home values in Washington County have gone up an average, an average of about $125,000, 130 since April 2013.  Or just 2013. Maybe it was April. Home values are up $125,000, 130 maybe in Washington County since 2013.  That is the average home.  Home values as a percentage are up 25-30%, maybe even more, maybe even 35% in certain neighborhoods. But here is a home that a really good human being has tried to sell.  A homeowner, and they have actually reduced their price by 30% over the same time period.  Jesse, what does that mean? Because that does not make sense with the market. It means something very simple for us.

Jesse: Well, it just means that they are not, they are trying to get what they want instead of what the market will bring.

Jeremy:  Right.

Jesse:  Because even, I am going to go somewhere you are not even expecting. But even in those price ranges –

Jeremy:  Oh, I do not know.  You are pretty unexpected.

Jesse:  — even over a million dollars, the homes that are selling are selling within, at the highest, 154 days, oh no, 207 days –

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  — is the highest days on market. So they are still selling when they sell.

Jeremy:  It is just taking longer.

Jesse:  It takes a little bit longer. Not significantly. Not 1500.

Jeremy:  Yeah, so 1500 days, as we get into this and we are going to share this message.  What we believe is the single most important message about any real estate market for buyers and sellers and would-be buyers and sellers.  But I think this is a great segue for us.  You have someone, as Jesse said, has been trying to ask significantly more than the market will bear.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  So here is what is going on in the real estate market today before we set this up.  Well, let’s just share it.  You guys ready?  Three, two, one. Real estate markets in every city in the United States of America and probably on the planet are cyclical, and this is the single most important message that you can possibly understand about real estate. It is not is it a good time to buy.  It is not is it a good time to sell.  Should I rent or buy?  Right? Should I purchase an investment property? The single most important message is that real estate markets are cyclical, which means what?

Jesse:  That what goes up must come down.

Jeremy: And?

Jesse: And what goes down must come up or will come up.

Jeremy:  Absolutely.

Jesse:  It is an equilibrium, and in any equilibrium, it has to go up and down to equalize.

Jeremy:  I have a very close friend who two days ago, 48 hours ago, we are not even at 48 right now. I think we are at 35 hours ago. He was like I guess things are just not going to work out in my life, and two hours later, everything changed. In a very positive way, and the way I described it is the clouds parted and the sun broke through.  Go figure, and I said this morning, do you realize that was two days ago? Two days ago, you were everything is going to pieces.

Jesse: That is why we need to keep reminding ourselves that this will pass. This too shall pass.

Jeremy:  Which makes it sounds like we are talking about a bad real estate market.  We are not at all.  This is an amazing real estate market, but we are going to help you understand what is going on in the real estate market. So if we go back ten years, it was 2008. Literally, people thought, people meaning just generally everyone, it seemed like the clouds could never part, and that the real estate market would forever be in freefall and gang, understand that almost all of the major developers in the western United States lost everything.

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy: This was not like –

Jesse:  I was just talking to a roofer last night. Actually, Stout Roofing is going to do my roof, and we were talking about the crash. What they went through and what they have pulled through, it is just amazing.  We are talking about $600,000 of accounts receivable that they could not collect on.

Jeremy:  Are you serious?

Jesse:  And they pulled through that. It gave me goosebumps for a guy to stand in front of me that came through that and now they are getting ready to do my roof and they are going strong.

Jeremy:  Isn’t that amazing?

Jesse: Yeah, it was really cool because how many did not come back.

Jeremy:  Right.  The amazing part is we have projects in Washington County that were 30 to 40 to $50 million value projects that just went belly up.  They went upside down.  Anyone who can remember ten years ago, if you went up to the Ledges, so the Ledges actually came, well it was a little later.  The Ledges came out of the ground.  It was 2007, Parade of Homes 2007 is when the Ledges came online.  This is fun.  The average person does not know this because why would you know this?  You do not do this for a living. But it is 2007, and they have opened at the Parade of Homes, and they had this big, incredible Spanish-style property that many folks do know of.  It was the first big home in the Ledges.  It has a lazy river and an island green in the backyard where you can chip balls onto the green.  It overlooks Snow Canyon, and that thing came on the market.  It was $5 million, by the way.  They had all these tents set up, and the sky was the limit, and they sold all the lots up there to a variety of builders. They came in and these guys thought they could do no wrong, and gals, to be fair. By 2010, you would drive down past the clubhouse, and there was a row of unfinished homes right there.  Probably a dozen homes, framed, some of them had, what do you want to call it?  Paper, what do we call it the paper?  My brain is fried for a minute.  On the outside, getting ready to stucco and they sat for years.

Jesse:  The vapor barriers.

Jeremy:  The vapor barrier.  Years, and years and years.  My uncle came into town from Southern California. He is a developer and he said oh my gosh.  This is bad.  That was, guys, that was eight years ago.  That part. So now go to the Ledges.  Now look around St. George. I am looking behind me at the Bluff Street redevelopment project.  So what we need to understand is that every real estate market is cyclical.  And so, Jesse, what are we starting to see in the market. We are having a lot of real estate agents reach out to us and say what is happening with their listing that they are trying to sell for a client.

Jesse: Well, what is happening is there are a couple of things.  We are seeing a lot of pressure like sellers are having to reduce their prices finally.

Jeremy: There you go.

Jesse:  Buyers are stopping.  They are like no, we are not going to do this anymore.

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  You are having to have a strategy to actually sell a home.  What are we going to do?  How are we going to be the best value?

Jeremy:  So very specifically, sellers are having to reduce their price.

Jesse:  They are.

Jeremy:  Does that mean the home values are going down?

Jesse:  Not necessarily.

Jeremy:  Not necessarily.

Jesse:  They do not go down like that.  It is kind of like a train does not stop in 100 feet. It takes a minute.

Jeremy:  It takes a while.

Jesse:  But there is starting to be some pressure.

Jeremy: There is.

Jesse: And it is visible pressure like homes that 30 days ago or 60 days ago would have sold in two days are taking maybe three or four weeks.

Jeremy:  This is absolutely right.  We are seeing a ton of pressure in the $4-500,000 range, and what starts to happen is because real estate markets are cyclical, and the reason this is the most important message is that people will start to panic and the market is so driven by the emotional conditions that people live in that what will happen is you will have a whole bunch of buyers who are frustrated and they are fed up, sick and tired of writing offers on homes and competing with five people.  So they start saying well, maybe I will not write anymore offers.  They are fed up with paying 10% more than the last person paid in the neighborhood. So they say well, maybe we will not pay 10% more than the last person. They are frustrated because interest rates are amazing at five-and-a-quarter percent, but they remember when they were four-and-a-quarter percent.  So they say maybe I just will not borrow money, and I will not buy a home. And what starts to happen is very subtly, slowly, then suddenly, the entire market can change.  And it is changing.

Jesse: What is interesting is that, Guild Mortgage put out an interest rates over the last, I do not know, 40 years, yesterday, it is a picture. But for the last, gosh, 15 years, interest rates have just kept going down.  And we lose track of our memory.  Right?  We do not think well, this is cyclical.  And we do not stop long enough and –

Jeremy:  Excuse me, what were you saying?

Jesse:  It is cyclical.

Jeremy:  You said we lose track of our memory. I was going to see if you were paying attention.  Okay.

Jesse:  But we do not realize that what goes down is going to come back up.  And what is that going to do to us if we do not act now or if we do act now.

Jeremy:  We do forget, and here is what we start to do. We make decisions on buying and selling a home that are based on well, rates went up, maybe I should not buy. Here is the issue gang.  Historically, rates were significantly higher than this.  I remember when I was at 7% on a townhome, and I thought it was the greatest thing ever.

Jesse: Right.

Jeremy:  When it went to 5.8, 6%, I really thought that my wildest dreams had come true.  And then they went to 3%. Well now they are back to five-and-a-quarter percent, and they will go higher.  So there will be people who will look back at this market and go oh my gosh –

Jesse:  I wish I would have.

Jeremy:  — I cannot believe I did not buy a home.  Okay?  We are going to have sellers –

Jesse:  Or make that move.

Jeremy:  Correct. Right? We are going to have sellers who are going to find out that people are reducing prices in their neighborhood, which is going to imply to them and cause this idea that maybe values are going down.  Maybe this is not a good time to sell.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  Historically, ladies and gentlemen, do you realize that values are literally back where they were at the ’06 peak.  We are actually back there. We are right back where we were. Let me share something with you. Southern Utah Title produces a really great report that we were looking at this morning, Jess, right?

Jesse:  Yep.

Jeremy:  And by the way, you can visit SUTC, S as in Sam not F as in Frank. S as in Sam.  SUTC dot com, Southern Utah Title Company.  Thank you, Mitch, for your help this morning. Southern Utah Title Company, they produce this incredible report called the Good News Report.  Let me share something with folks.  In 2009, there were 474 building permits pulled.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy:  In 2009, 474 building permits.  Do we know how many building permits were pulled so far this year, Jesse?

Jesse:  1,866.

Jeremy:  Projected at how many more?

Jesse: 622.

Jeremy: So we are projected to have 2400 building permits pulled.  That is five times as many building permits as were pulled in 2009.  Okay? And it looked like this.  2005, four years prior, now brace yourselves, folks, and we have talked about this in the show, but I would not expect someone to remember this. 3500.

Jesse: Really?

Jeremy:  We went from 3,500 building permits pulled in 2005.  The low was 474.  Nine times, a nine-time crash.  Nine times fewer.

Jesse: Wow.

Jeremy:  Right? We went from 3,500 building permits in Washington County to 474.  Last year, we pulled 1800, and this year we are at 1800 and the year is not out.

Jesse:  And end at 2400.

Jeremy:  Let me be really clear. This is September. But we are headed to 2400 permits. Is real estate cyclical? Real estate is cyclical.  Is the market crashing because people need to reduce the price? No what it means is, and what we have talked about on the show is pretty much everyone is asking probably 5-10% more than what the market is really going to bare.

Jesse: Yeah.

Jeremy:  (Indiscernible) the sellers.

Jesse: The pricing conversation is a lot different when you are in a really strong sellers’ market than when you are in a buyers’ market or just a balanced market.

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  And really, we are just going back towards a balanced market.

Jeremy: Yeah, correct. This is so true.  We are headed back to a healthy, balanced market.

Jesse: Because there is a day when three months was normal to sell a house.

Jeremy:  Correct.

Jesse: Sixty, ninety days. That is normal.  This sell your house in a week is not normal or sustainable.

Jeremy:  It is not.  Right?  We have used this so many times, but it is like when In-and-Out Burger opened over there by Best Buy, it has been a long time now.  There was a line around the building for four days.

Jesse:  That is crazy.

Jeremy:  Well, it is an unsustainable pace. No restaurant has a line around the building for 365 days a year and it lasted about four days and it was done.  And there is a nice line out there now on a busy lunch, but they push them through.

Jesse: Right.

Jeremy:  Here is another thought.  Okay? That was building permits. How about total sales?  In 2009, 3,900 properties sold in Washington County. 3,900 properties.  We are projected this year to have almost 10,000 properties sell in Washington County.  Now this is all sales, and so when we say all sales, and again you can visit S as in Sam, UTC dot com and look at the Good News Report.  All sales means building lots, homes, condos, townhomes, that kind of thing.  Right?  So folks, look, the market is absolutely incredible.  The market is cyclical.  Let me share one last thought with you.  We virtually have no foreclosures in Washington County right now.

Jesse: Wow.

Jeremy:  We are talking about, folks, let me give you some perspective.  We are talking about almost zero, virtually none in Washington County.

Jesse: Out of how many active listings?  1400?

Jeremy:  1500 homes on the market.  Well, how many homes are in the county?  10,000?

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  More. I do not know how many.  That is a number we need to get.

Jesse: How many homes are actually built?

Jeremy:  Yeah, yeah, properties.

Jesse: I will work on that.

Jeremy:  Thank you. There are virtually no foreclosures.  Real estate is cyclical.  A decade ago, we know for a fact, I know because I was selling homes that I was handling at one point, the Larkin Group, we were handling over 70 foreclosed or soon-to-be foreclosed properties.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy:  Just us.  Guys, the most important message that you can ever receive about real estate is that it is cyclical.  Markets go up and they go down.  This will be a time that people regret not selling because values are high, and they will have been high, and it is a time that people, this is ironic because it does not always work this way, will have regretted not buying because rates will go up another point.

Jesse:  I think that is a big piece.

Jeremy:  And they will be ticked.  It is a strange and actually amazing time in real estate.  Headed back to a balanced market.

Mike: You are listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.  For more detail and information, call 275-1690 or find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.