$1 Home Sale Program and GLUT of Homes Hitting The New Year’s Market (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing email@example.com.
Jeremy: Happy New Year. By the way, that was one of my favorite elements of the new year is we were at the grocery store last night at the Winn’s down there in the Washington Fields, and people are so fun. The produce guy was really cool. Theywere having a debate about sauerkraut by the way. I was a cilantro fan –
Jesse: What is there to debate about sauerkraut?
Jeremy: Well, I do not like it.
Jesse: Oh, okay. So that is in debate?
Jeremy: Yeah, it was a debate. Yeah, it was a debate. And then the produce guy started kind of pitching the sauerkraut. He was a great guy. And then as we walked away, he said Happy New year. I love that about the holidays. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. It is fun.
Jesse: I would like to see it if people could keep that attitude or thought all year round. Why not be happy every day?
Jeremy: Yes, thank you.
Jesse: Well, I have been accused of that.
Jeremy: You do get accused of it, and you resemble the comment, and I will tell you that it is very similar to the whole 9/11. Remember when 9/11 happened –
Jeremy: Suddenly everyone in the country was fearful believer in God and very patriotic. That lasted about twelve months. But good morning to everyone out there. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got multiple co-hosts in here. I have got Jesse Poll from the Larkin Group. Mike McGarry is here.
Jesse: I told Mike this morning we are happy he is back.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is nice to have him here.
Jesse: We do not like it when he is gone.
Mike: I will hang around for a little while.
Jeremy: Yeah, he has just has this thing dialed in. Yeah, I know. He is going to hang around about 30 days.
Mike: Pretty close to that, yeah.
Jeremy: Good morning, David. Love it man. Love it. 343 never forget. Absolutely right, David. Isn’t amazing, by the way, Dave, and Dave is a fireman, and one of my childhood friends. Literally, our families go way back. But this is not a political show. But it was crazy how patriotic and God-fearing we were for about twelve months and –
Jesse: And really how –
Jeremy: Then we were just like ah, we are busy now.
Jesse: And really how the country really came together.
Jeremy: The country came together. I will tell you. Crisis a very, very interesting gift and teacher for us. Is it not, Jesse?
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: I want to share some New Year’s Resolutions. We ran a little Facebook thing where we said are you believer in New Year’s resolutions. I am going to share my theme for 2018. I think our listeners want to know what my theme is. Don’t you? Does anyone know, please say you do, The Christmas Story? I have it almost memorized, the movie The Christmas Story.
Jesse: We actually did not watch that this year.
Jeremy: It was on TBS and TNT for 24 hours straight. You do not even have to have the DVD, but I do have the DVD. So on the Larkin Group Facebook page, by the way, we will announce our winner this morning.
Jesse: Right on.
Jeremy: Somebody won $50 cash. The $50 cash is sitting –
Jeremy: — on my desk.
Jesse: I saw that sitting on your desk.
Jeremy: Yeah, sitting on my desk.
Jesse: I thought it was for me. A gift.
Jeremy: Sorry, dude. Sorry. Sorry. Sitting on my desk. $50 cash. So I asked the question New Year’s resolutions or no? Chime in. Chime in. And I thought that this was very fun. We will talk about real estate. We are going to talk about selling a home for $1, and what happens every, $1. This is like, you know what you can get for a buck? You can get a drink at McDonald’s.
Jesse: Can you really still?
Jeremy: Oh, all the drinks are 99 cents. You can get some chicken nuggets. You can get a little French fry, a small shake, a parfait. Okay?
Jeremy: I do not even think you can purchase a pack of gum almost anywhere for 99 cents.
Jesse: I do not think so.
Jeremy: We will talk about that.
Jesse: Very few things can you buy for a dollar.
Jeremy: Yeah, for a buck. We are going to talk about $1 home sale program because we decided to have some fun in January. It is just for fun. But people, this is so interesting to hear what people said. Mark said yes. Natasha said yes, but not so much traditional New Year’s goals. More like intending to improve myself. I have chosen a word for the year. That is mine for the year. Mine is build. Relationships. Build our business. Build each other up. Beautiful. One of our past clients.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: McKennon, did you know your daughter chimed in?
Jeremy: Yes, absolutely. We never know where we are going, but we always know where we have been, and we need new goals to set new heights to see how far we can get. It is all for naught. Is life even worth living? Right? I said kind of. What I do not like is the resolution because it is usually like a two-week campaign. I like more what she is saying which is we are looking, that idea of build. I love having a word for the year, and I have a theme, which I will share. But for me it is more like the new year is such a gift for new beginnings, and to kind of rethink and say where I have been. We know where we have been, she said. Andrew Young, absolutely yes. Cassie Segmiller, yes. Brett and Natalie Johnson, yes, and on and on. But let’s go ahead and let’s give congratulations to Cassie Segmiller who won the drawing for fifty bucks.
Jeremy: Yeah. We will respond on Facebook to her today. So here goes, Jess. I do not know how you say it. He is one of the famous, what do you call him, he is Tao. He is a Taoist. He is a Taoist. T-A-O. It is one of my favorite quotes. Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. So that is my theme for the year. Rather than a word, it is this idea of monitoring how my thoughts become my words and actions and habits and character and destiny and how much we mess ourselves up.
Jesse: Without even knowing it.
Jeremy: Oh, we do not even know it.
Jesse: This stuff happens so gradually that one day we wake up and realize that somewhere over the last 20 years I have become somebody I do not really want to be.
Jeremy: Yep, yep. So yeah, like the boiling pot of water. So hey, happy January. We are waxing a little philosophical, but guess what? It is our show. We will talk about whatever we want to talk about. Right, Jesse?
Jesse: It is your show. I will just follow along.
Jeremy: It is my show. Good morning. So gang, you need to understand that we actually are now broadcasting. There are, I wish I had my other phone. I would take a picture.
Jesse: Yeah, where is your other piece of technology. You do not have enough here.
Jeremy: I have another phone in my car. There are two phones on the countertop right here in two different tripods. One is broadcasting Facebook Live, and one is broadcasting YouTube Live.
Jeremy: So if anyone ever wanted to know where you could watch this on YouTube Live, I should have put that in the comments. It is YouTube dot com, of course, but it is Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV. We have got about 1300 subscribers there or something, and we have done very little live. So if you want to be on YouTube Live and that is your preference, see our YouTube channel Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV or hang out on Facebook Live, and of course, all of our radio listeners, you are already on with us at 94.9FM, 890AM. Jesse, it is January 3rd, and there is a phenomenon that happens, especially in St. George because the Parade of Homes is six weeks from now.
Jesse: It is coming right up.
Jeremy: What is happening? You brought some data this morning.
Jesse: The data –
Jeremy: Every January.
Jesse – that I brought this morning is peanuts compared to what is coming.
Jeremy: Can I show them?
Jeremy: Anyone who is looking. This is his data. Three days.
Jesse: During the last –
Jeremy: I hope everyone is looking at this.
Jesse: Hey, every genius scribbles.
Jeremy: It is a 4×7 –
Jesse: Ask Einstein.
Jeremy: — scratch paper. I like it.
Jesse: In the last three days you have had 36 homes hit the market.
Jeremy: Last four days or two days? It is really two days.
Jesse: Two days. Yeah. So since the first. The first and second.
Jeremy: But there was not a first. See, the first did not exist. You could not put a home on the market.
Jesse: That is true. Because everyone was off.
Jeremy: That means in the last 24 hours 36 homes hit the market.
Jeremy: I did not mean to correct you, but –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — if you think about this –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — one day 36 homes hit the market. Holy cow. Okay?
Jesse: And what is coming over the next two months will be probably 1100 homes. I am pretty sure last year it was about 1100 homes between January and February.
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: But before the Parade of Homes, and by March, that number will be 1500.
Jesse: Every year.
Jesse: And it is just gearing up for our spring season. Especially the Parade of Homes.
Jeremy: I am just looking at some of this data myself. Wow.
Jesse: One thing that is interesting. We have been talking about this is the price reductions. I went and pulled those. There have been 29 reduced prices in the last two days.
Jeremy: Twenty-four hours.
Jesse: Well, this is from the 31st because some of us did work Monday.
Jeremy: Define a price reduction for the listeners.
Jesse: That is somebody that is on the market currently, and they have reduced their price because they realized they were too high.
Jeremy: Yeah. Because look if the market is not supporting what you are buying, what you are selling –
Jesse: What you are selling then you have got –
Jeremy: Yeah, it is very simple. There is Dillard’s had their big annual sale. Oh man, I wanted to go. I am such a shopper. Every January 1st, New Year’s Day, a lot of retailers are closed. They put all of their clearance on 50% of the clearance price, and the place is like a zoo. Right? Well, why? Because the product has not sold –
Jeremy: — and new product is coming into the store, and the challenge you have as a homeowner is that new product is coming in the store –
Jeremy: — and it is called other people selling their house. Right? So this has happened for how many Januarys in a row?
Jeremy: All of them?
Jesse: Yeah, probably since the Parade of Homes started.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah.
Jesse: Because that is really what drives January and February is the Parade of Homes. So how long ago did that start? 20-25 years ago?
Jeremy: Yeah, and I want to be clear about this. He said it drives it. It drives people’s psychology. It does not actually drive sales in St. George.
Jesse: It does not drive the market, but it drives them wanting to be on the market by then.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, this is absolutely true, and it will be interesting to see because we had, for instance, one luxury real estate firm here in town put five homes on the market yesterday. Cancelled the listings in the fall, late fall, and they put them back on yesterday because the belief of every seller, and by the way, if you want to see a video of me talking about that from the chair lift at Bryant Head yesterday.
Jesse: Oh, a new one?
Jeremy: Yeah, you can check it out. A rash of luxury homes hitting the market after January 1. What does this mean? Published 18 hours ago. So I shot a video yesterday at Bryant Head. I was with my kids because the kids all went back to school this morning. Second greatest day of the year, by the way. First greatest day is when they go to school in August.
Jeremy: And it was interrupted by a phone call, which was fun. The live video. But you might want to check that out. It is right on the Larkin Group Facebook stream. Just look up the Larkin Group and you will find us. But I said what does this mean? Well it means that people believe –
Jesse: That they will sell their home during the Parade.
Jesse: They believe that more high-end, first of all, high-end buyers come for the Parade. And that might be true. But are they really buying homes?
Jesse: But people really believe that not only can they get a buyer at that time of year, they can get a buyer that will pay extraordinary prices.
Jeremy: Yeah. Oh yeah. Right. Let me share something cool with you folks. If you hop on our Facebook stream, we have, so we have been on this show for almost six years.
Jeremy: Five plus years we have been on the radio.
Jesse: Has it been that long?
Jeremy: It has been a long time, and we have been delivering content via the show, via Facebook, we have a really great video blog, and a lot of our listeners have received those video emails. I am looking at our Facebook stream. This is just the last few days. Excited about buying a home this year? Here is what to watch. These are articles that we have produced.
Jeremy: Let me share a few more. Selling For Sale By Owner. Questions and comments and concerns. Where is the market headed in 2019? Where is it headed? How to save thousands of dollars in interest on your mortgage. What makes a house a home for you and more and more. We have produced so much content for so long. And by the way, where is the market headed in 2019? A couple of things that we will give you, and then we are going to tell you about something really fun that we are doing. And folks, if you enjoy our program, we are going to ask you for your help today. For the amount of content that we put out compared to the ratio of that to asking for help is pretty low, pretty high to content and low asking for help. Where is the market headed in 2019? This is a really great infographic that we have on our Facebook stream, and again, look up the Larkin Group or Facebook dot com slash The Larkin Group. So what do they predict? They predict that home prices will appreciate across the country 4.8%. Historic home appreciation is 3.6, averaging all the years together.
Jesse: Averaging –
Jeremy: Every year.
Jeremy: 4.8%. St. George? Jesse says yes. I say no.
Jesse: Yeah, we have a debate there. It is going to interesting next January when we pull, when we come out to really see what happened this year.
Jeremy: Yeah, I say no. I say that we are not going to have any appreciation in Washington County. I think we are going to be exactly static. Interest rates have risen, but they are currently at the lowest point that they have been in six months.
Jesse: Yep, they just went down again.
Jeremy: Yeah, guys, the lowest point in six months. Interest rates right now. Interest rates, amazing, so home prices, Core Logic, which is like the biggest national prediction type firm saying 4.8% appreciation. All four major reporting agencies believe that total home sales will out pace 2018. That is interesting. And interest rates are projected to rise. Are projected to rise. However, let us remind you that in the year 2000, interest rates were 6.2%. In 1990, they were 8.1%. In 1980, they were 12.7%, and in 1970, 8.86. We are so far below everything. Now, I produced a video that has not been released yet, and it is about seven and a half minutes. It is four things you have to know about St. George Real Estate moving into 2019. It is upcoming, forthcoming. It will be on our YouTube channel and on our Facebook page in the next week. So, Jesse, the homes that hit the market this morning. Price ranges?
Jesse: Well, you have got six of them under 250, and that is going to be a problem for your average worker here in St. George.
Jeremy: So only 6, 36 homes hit the market, and only 6 of them –
Jesse: Were under 250.
Jeremy: — were under $250,000.
Jesse: Which is where your average worker can afford a home.
Jesse: You have got six between 250 and 300. That is a pretty good number. That is pretty solid.
Jesse: You have got seven between $300,000 and $400,000, six between four and five, and then 11 over 500,000.
Jeremy: Holy smoke. Eleven –
Jeremy: — of the 36. So our greatest, over $500,000.
Jesse: Actually, let’s break that down. You have got 3 between 5 and 6, and then 8 over 600.
Jeremy: So I need to say, folks, that is going to be a problem. Just so you know. It is going to be a problem for the average, like you say, the average worker.
Jesse: Yeah, because your average household –
Jeremy: I actually like the word worker. It is like the average, typical, employed human being.
Jesse: Right because your average household income in Washington County is 50,000.
Jesse: So somebody making $50,000 a year, how much house can they afford?
Jesse: Right, so that is –
Jeremy: Maybe 250. If they have a good down payment, 250. So that will be a challenge, and I am here to explain to our luxury homeowners in Washington County, it is going to be tougher than you think it is, and you had better take the job of selling your home very serious. And if you are thinking oh well, this sounds negative, maybe it is not the year. No, remember values are at their highest point in ten years.
Jeremy: We are at the top. You know the waves out in the ocean if you have been on the ocean. They grow up and they go down. Kind of like when you swim out from the shore 50 yards, and you are floating out there with your friends.
Jesse: Especially –
Jeremy: We are at the top.
Jesse: Yeah, especially up in the higher price points because if you, once you step over $600,000, the amount of inventory just increases astronomically. It goes from 4 to 5 to 18 months.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are at the peak, so you had better take that very serious and work with an agent who is very serious about telling you the, it is funny, there is a script that we use in real estate. We are trained to use it. Hey, Jesse, on a scale of 1 to 10, how honest can I be with you? Well, what do people always say?
Jesse: They say ten until you do it.
Jeremy: There is a reason we are trained to ask this.
Jeremy: Because we have to set up the homeowner to actually hear the truth. Hey Jesse, do these pants make me look fat? You are like the fact that you asked me that means that you already knew the answer. Right? The seller, does your price make you look fat and greedy? Kind of. It sounds so terrible, but here is why this is so important. Because if you are thinking well, isn’t it marketing that is going to sell my home? Oh, it is marketing with the right price, and if you are not priced correctly, you will not sell your luxury home in 2019. It is not happening.
Jeremy: You will spend the next year of your life, you hear the passion, folks. I emphatically, you will not sell your home if you are not very competitive in that luxury home market. There is so much inventory. We are talking about years, and the market is at its peak.
Jesse: I cannot tell you –
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: — how many homes in the luxury market that we have seen that have been on the market for a year or two off and on.
Jeremy: But we have seen homes that have been on 500 or 1000 days.
Jesse: What is interesting is that even the worst market, luxury homes sold within four months. Very rarely does it take a year to sell a home.
Jeremy: You are right. You are absolutely right. This is just a completely different market than say downtown St. George. All right. We are doing something fun.
Jesse: All right. Let’s do this.
Jeremy: McDonald’s Dollar Value Menu. The Larkin Group Dollar Menu. The Dollar Menu. Okay.
Jesse: We have a Dollar Menu now.
Jeremy: So here is what you have to do. Yeah, we do. And the dollar menu is just like this. We have got a program that we are running for January only. So I was sitting there over the holidays thinking why are we not having more fun? Seriously. We are dealing with people who are stressed out.
Jesse: Yeah, they are.
Jeremy: Think of some of the transactions we are dealing with right now. Folks, a domino succession, chain, they can only, we have a client. Incredible people who, think about this, the spouse is going to pass away in the very near future because of some serious health elements. The other spouse cannot physically afford to live, will be homeless or bankrupt if they do not sell the home now because the retirement and Social Security will go away when the husband passes away.
Jeremy: They have to sell the home. They cannot live somewhere if they do not sell the home first, but if they do not sell the home, she is going to be homeless. And by the way, prices are high in St. George, so now they are trying to figure out what she can possibly afford at her new income. Do you see this? And, of course, then you are depending on the buyer if their home, it is crazy. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, it is kind of emotional.
Jeremy: So then you have another seller on the other end who is hoping these people close on their sale so they can make the purchase of their home. It is very complicated. So I said why aren’t we having more fun? So we are going to have more fun. You can sell your home for as little as one buck. Now you do not need to sell it in January. You just need to enroll in the program in January. $1. I do not have time to get into all the details, but I will give you the one detail. The absolute specific criteria is you have to buy another home through us. And by the way, do you know that when you buy a home, you do not pay a commission? Because remember the seller pays the commission.
Jeremy: There are other terms and conditions. You have to be born in 1957. You have to have an odd number ending your Social Security number, and you have to have sandy blonde hair. I am kidding. You know those crazy, it is actually not that crazy. The terms and conditions are not crazy at all. But you do need to buy another home through us because we are literally going to charge on the listing side a dollar if you buy another home through us. Meaning no income for us on the listing side. Okay? Here is an alternate. If you are not buying home through us, we said okay, then what can we do? Because we want everybody to win.
Jeremy: If you are not buying another home through us because meaning you are going to rent a home or you are moving out of town, you still can save up to $10,000 selling your home. And you will save no less than $1250. Right?
Jesse: Yep, $1250.
Jeremy: One thousand two hundred and fifty dollars at the lowest price point. It is based on price point. Most of our clients are going to save $2,500 selling a home. That is the most typical segment will be at $2,500.
Jeremy: There is no gimmick. There is no qualification. If you sign a listing agreement with the Larkin Group in January, you will be getting that discount or you can be in the dollar program. And by the way, both apply. So the dollar programs applies if you are trying to buy another home. You can work through both. Now, here is the deal. We made a goal. We sat down as a team several days and said what do we want to do? And last year we helped about 180 clients buy and sell real estate. We decided we were going to procure 90 families in 90 days, in the first 90 days of 2019. We decided that for our families, now again, folks, earlier I said we have given you this content for years and years and years, and we are asking for your help. We are asking today for you to be mindful of the Larkin Group as, 90 in 90 is almost unheard of. Okay?
Jesse: Very few people –
Jeremy: Very few people have pulled this off. We want to find 90 great clients like yourself that need our services. It is a win-win situation. We are doing the dollar home sale program or the save up to $10,000. If you or someone you know has thought about selling, we are asking will you send them to us?
Jesse: Have them give us a call.
Jeremy: Will you let us talk to them? You do not have to commit them to anything. There is no obligation to talk to us, but you can reach us on Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts or at Sold in St. George dot com. It is going to be fun to report what happens when we get to the end of these 90 days to see what we do. We are going to have a good time this year.
Jesse: It is going to be fun.
Jeremy: It is going to be a great year in St. George real estate. Hope you guys can help us, and we will guarantee we will help you. Thank you.
Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday morning. It is time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in once again with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Hopefully Mike will plug me in here. I do not know where this thing plugs into. It plugs in somewhere. Hey, we are live in the Cherry Creek Radio Studios on North Bluff Street. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, you would see the chaos ensuing. By the way, chaos unneeded in life. It is okay to not have chaos. It is okay to live drama-free. It is not a problem.
Jesse: But it is not fun.
Jeremy: Nah. Yes, it is. It is a lot of fun, and it is okay to live without drama. I assure you right now. Okay? So you have a little, thank you, Mike, little snafu. Plugged in. I can actually hear now and be involved and engaged in, as they say, present with you. Hey, Merry Christmas. You can hear the jingling of the bells. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, I think just envision a little more than, not lime but not forest green sweatshirt with a bunch of kitty cats all over the front of it with bells, actual bells and a few Christmas bows. I think it is a nice sweatshirt. I asked Jesse to wear an ugly sweatshirt this morning. Ugly sweater, he put on a nice sweater.
Jesse: Well, I could not find my Christmas sweater, my ugly sweater. So I have a shirt. I thought that was for later.
Jeremy: Well, he asked a question this morning in our group feed. Over at the Larkin Group, we run a real estate company. If you guys do not know who we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Been hosting this show for at least five years. We might have pushed clear back into 2012, which would be over five years. I know we are five years, and we run a real estate company here in St. George, Utah, and we help people through what seems really easy but ends up being the third most harrowing experience of their life shy of a birth, a death, fourth most, a birth, a death or a divorce. Literally, buying and selling and moving is –
Jeremy: — it seems to be next for most people. We help people through that process –
Jesse: Very stressful.
Jeremy: — of buying and selling and investing and help them make good decisions. But I have got Jesse Poll here, one of my business partners, great guy. But this morning on the group chat, we have a group chat. Right? And he said do you want us to bring a Christmas sweater or an ugly sweater? And I said there is no difference, dude. There is no such thing as a Christmas sweater that is not ugly. It is actually a fact.
Jesse: Now, I am corrected. There you go.
Jeremy: I do not care if you show up with a reindeer on your shirt –
Jesse: That is ugly.
Jeremy: — like a nice stag and you think something like this is cool. This is masculine. It is an ugly sweater, dude.
Jesse: And there you go.
Jeremy: Okay, so as long as we know that. Hey, if you are not watching us on Facebook Live, please, you can pick it up and you can see what we are doing. Ask us anything. This is one of the things that we are going to start talking about on our shows. You can ask us anything about the real estate market. And if you do, it should pop up on our screen here. Today, we are going to talk about, it is, by the way, December 20, 2018 for those who are picking up our show later on the podcast or over at our website, Sold in St. George dot com. If you would like to listen to past shows, you can literally go to Sold in St. George dot com. Each show is about 23 minutes long, 24 minutes.
Jeremy: And we have them on there again. Sold in St. George dot com and click on the blog. But if you are watching on Facebook, let us know you are out there. Give us a thumb or a heart or ask a question. Ask us anything. We are going to talk about five things you have to know about the real estate market moving into 2018, 2019, excuse me. Because 2018 is eleven days ready to expire, right. Eleven days from now we will be done with this year, and you will be writing, fortunately, most people are not writing checks. We do at our office, and you can stop putting the wrong date on, or start putting the wrong date on everything.
Jesse: This is the first year I did not do that. Maybe it is because I do not write checks anymore.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Well, there you go. There you go. I write a handful. Not personally. Well, occasionally even personally I write one, but typically, typically, I am writing checks only for the business. So you all know what we are talking about. Right? It is January 7th, 10th, 20th, 30th, and I do not even know if there is a 40th in there, and you are still writing 2000, I think you write 2018, the previous year until at least June.
Jesse: At least.
Jeremy: And then you start over. Hey, here is a New Year’s resolution for everybody. Most people burn out on their resolutions by about January 20th, and do you know why? This is actually not a joke. I am going to tell you why if you would like to know.
Jesse: Because they are unrealistic. They are not really goals.
Jeremy: They may be realistic.
Jesse: They are pipe dreams most of, most of the New Year’s resolutions that I have ever done is a pipe dream, and they change my entire being instead of just making a little bit of an improvement.
Jeremy: And I like that. So they may be realistic. They may not, but what you are saying is right. What happens is, so we work in the real estate community, and we will be doing some business planning tomorrow as a team. We will go off site and do some great motivation and business planning for 2019. Well, what will happen is someone will say I want to lose 20 pounds in 2019. Or I want to sell 30 homes in 2019. So they divide that out by the months, and they say okay, I am going to have to lose X number of pounds or sell X number of homes per month. What happens is about January 20th, 25th, they find out that they are already behind, and what we do is we start to hate ourselves right then. We go oh well, this is just like 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, and 12 when I said the same thing. And oh five and six. And instantaneously, we start to hate ourselves for, and I know hate is such a strong word, but I have to be honest, folks. It is pretty much a hatred if you are real honest out there. I realize you are saying are we doing a psychology show? Well, real estate is psychology. But just for fun, here is a New Year’s resolution. You write out who it is you want to be, what you want to have, and what you want to do, and you start with who you want to be because that is what we are going to do tomorrow as a team. Who do I want to be? What will I need to do to have what I want to have? Right? And if I cannot be the kind of person that has those things, then I will not be able to have them, that does those things, I will not be able to do the things to have the things.
Jeremy: Then the resolution, folks, is you just accept yourself where you are at. And if January 20th comes around and you were supposed to lose three pounds and you have lost zero, you say, you know what, I love myself for the effort I am making all the way through January 20th. That is 20 days I was making a stronger effort I was during the month of December when I was eating all the goodies that they kept dropping off at my office. And the neighbors kept swinging by. Boy, it was nice of them to bring me toffee and fudge.
Jeremy: And then guess what you do? You get up on January 21st, and you reboot, and you try again. That is the resolution that I am going to encourage our listeners to do. Is you love yourself for the goal.
Jesse: You just keep going?
Jeremy: Yep, you love yourself for failing at the goal. You love yourself for your humanity. You love yourself for the fact that you screwed up the previous five years, and then you just keep going.
Jesse: But I think the most important part of what you just said is we do not take into fact that it is going to take a little bit longer to actually get the habit or the whatever we are reaching for –
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: — to start to show up. Take the weight loss. It may be in the 35th day that it really starts to change our metabolism.
Jeremy: Yeah. We have been thinking a certain way for 30, 40 years most of us, and sometimes 50, 60, 70. So hey, that is your psychology lesson for this morning.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: But truly, I think it makes such an impact when you are able to do that. Let’s talk about five things you have to know about St. George and the real estate market. So we, Jesse and I, last night and this morning, excuse me, we spent a few hours breaking down some information provided by a company called Keeping Current Matters and a fellow named Steve Harney. And what Steve Harney does, Keeping Current Matters is he spends all of his days and nights, drum roll please, researching the market. That is all he does.
Jesse: This guy says he reads eight hours a day. Reads.
Jeremy: And we have a lot of real estate. By the way, the failure rate for real estate agents is you make decisions to hire an agent in 2019. The failure rate for real estate agents is 87% over how long?
Jesse: Five years.
Jeremy: Over five years. So, 87% of real estate agents will either quit the business entirely or take another full-time job even if they keep their license active over a five-year period.
Jesse: You know what number surprised me in that data was there is 1.3 million real estate agents, and only 47,000 of those that will do more than 25 units or transactions a year.
Jeremy: Okay, so think about this. 1.3 million real estate agents –
Jesse: In the U.S.
Jeremy: In the U.S., right. And 43,000, is that what they said?
Jeremy: 47,000 –
Jesse: Will do more than 25 transactions.
Jeremy: — divided by 1.3 million. 3.6% of the professionals that, because realize, you as a consumer if you are listening to our show, if you know someone who has a license, in your mind, and by the way, you are not ignorant, it is just you have no reason to believe that they would not be a professional.
Jeremy: But we are telling you that there is actually a 3.6% likelihood that they are really good at what they do.
Jeremy: By the way, it might even be lower than that. You might have people selling 30 homes that are not good at what they do. But let’s just assume that by the time you are selling 25 transactions, you –
Jeremy: You know what you are doing. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, their feet are wet.
Jeremy: 3.6% chance that you are hiring someone who actually, who has actually really been doing this a long time and who has, who can, they might have your best interests at heart, but Jesse, I might have your best interests at heart when you are laying on the street bleeding, but I do not have the medical ability and professional expertise to save you from dying.
Jeremy: Do we see that? And man, I know that was a gruesome one. That was a good one. Just because someone has your best interests in mind does not mean that they can serve and meet your best interest. So okay, they broke this down, and we are going to nail this thing this morning. This is so powerful, this information. There are five things that we want you to know, and I am going to warm us up this morning because we want you to be, our listeners, the smartest kids on the block. We always talk about that. Right? If you walk away from the show every week saying did not know that, did not think about that. Ring your jingle bells as I am jingling along here and maybe watch Jingle All the Way with Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know he is the world’s worst actor? But somehow it is fun to watch him.
Jesse: I enjoy watching him.
Jeremy: It is like watching a car accident. You just want to see. 1,400 real estate agents in Washington County according to Robert. Good morning, Robert. 1,400, okay?
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: Times 1,400. That means, that is about right. 50 agents, 50 of the 1,400 in Washington County are really selling at a volume level. I call that 25 or more transactions. Which is actually pretty good since the minimum standard to even be at the Larkin Group is?
Jeremy: 24 transactions. Yeah. So we cannot even have a sales person on our team that is not selling 24 homes. Just too complicated. They do not have enough information to help the client, and there you go. Good morning David and Kierstin. Love having all of you on here this morning. Number one, are you guys ready? Five things you have to know about the real estate market. Number one, we are not in a bubble. We are not in a bubble.
Jeremy: This is not the next housing bubble. Jesse, give us a definition of a housing recession.
Jesse: Two months –
Jeremy: Two quarters.
Jesse: Two quarters of downward pricing or –
Jeremy: Yeah, the economy is slowing down.
Jesse: — is slowing.
Jeremy: If I tell you that we are in a recession, you get nervous. Right?
Jeremy: That is a scary word. Right? But if I tell you hey, I was noticing, the economy slowed down the last two quarters. Do you quite get that chill down your spine?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: You should not because they are different. Recession is like a four-letter word, a really naughty one.
Jeremy: Okay? So a recession is nothing more than two straight quarters of economic slowdown. Okay. Folks, if you go to your children’s track at their school this morning, and they line you up and they say you are going to do, you are going to run as fast as you possibly can around this track. Like what do you mean? Am I going to run a mile or two miles? I need to know how long I am running so I will know how fast to run. No, Jesse, I want you to run as fast as you possibly can until you have to stop. How far would you go realistically you think? 400 meters around that track. How far do you think you could actually, far you think you could go at the fastest?
Jesse: How far at the fastest?
Jesse: Probably half way.
Jeremy: That is about it. That is probably about right for most people. You would just about keel over at 200 yards.
Jeremy: So what you are telling me is that you cannot keep running at your very fastest speed all the way around the track indefinitely?
Jeremy: Neither can the economy.
Jesse: Sixty seconds is about –
Jeremy: Yeah. And neither can your car at 100 miles per hour. It will run out of fuel. Your Tesla will run out of power. The economy cannot continue at this pace. So when we say it slowed down for two quarters, it is like thank goodness. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number two data point, market interest rates are rising. We have heard that interest rates have been rising. Okay? This is a two point. Interest rates are rising, and the reason is because the economy, Jesse, is good or bad?
Jesse: Because it is good.
Jeremy: Isn’t that an interesting way to look at that? Isn’t that a different way to look at that?
Jesse: Right, but they have needed to rise because the Fed has been actually holding them, they have been paying money to hold them down.
Jesse: To boost, or to continue to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: They have been bribing the economy.
Jesse: We cannot do that forever.
Jesse: Without some pretty severe consequences.
Jeremy: Lincoln, Darrell, Devin, that is like a triple power. If you guys all knew each other. Well, actually Devin bought Lincoln’s home. So maybe they do know each other. Small world. Good morning, guys. Think about what you just said. Right? Interest rates are going up because the economy is in good shape not because it is in bad shape.
Jesse: And because it is time. In St. George, anyway, for a year we have said wow, this has got to slow down. We cannot continue this pace.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have been watching my kid run around the track for the last several years, and he looks sick.
Jeremy: This does not look, this is not good.
Jeremy: I think he is going to have a heart attack.
Jesse: So we have been praying for this, and now it is just time.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. This is fun. Point number, we are going to come up to one about equity in just a minute.
Jeremy: So point number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay? We are not even close to a housing bubble and we are going to give you more data to prove that. So the question is are we in a bubble? Is this, okay, we are not in a bubble. Number two, interest rates are rising, but it is because, Jesse?
Jesse: They need to.
Jeremy: They need to. Okay? And by the way –
Jesse: To stabilize our economy, they need to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way, Jeremy, what do you think interest rates are going to do in 2019? I do not know, guys. Honestly, I am tired of making predictions. They keep, they raise them, and then they said they were not going to raise them.
Jesse: And then they lowered them.
Jeremy: I do not know what they are going to do. Okay? Here is what I do know. We have used this analogy so many times. If you are about to travel across 200 miles of open desert in the middle of the summer, and you see a sign that says this is the last gas station, water, and services for 200 miles, and your children are in your car, do you or do you not stop?
Jesse: You stop.
Jeremy: You stop. You are like I do not know. We will buy something. Get some gum and use the bathroom.
Jeremy: What I know is interest rates are what they are today, and historically, they are half of historic, half of what they were historically. Meaning, folks, if rates ever go back, we talked about it with Chantry Abbott from Guild Mortgage last week on the show, if rates went back to the historical average, your payment would go up $500 per month if you went to get a new mortgage. Oops. Okay. Number three, this is pretty exciting. Owning a home has always and will continue to be a much better financial position than renting. Let’s talk about the data.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Okay, this is number three. Did you hear what they said what the net worth of the typical home renter was over the age of 65?
Jesse: I did not. I did not catch that.
Jeremy: Did you miss that? Okay, I do not know if you grabbed it.
Jesse: Well, I heard it, but I do not remember.
Jeremy: The typical renter over the age of 65 in the United States of America has a net worth of $5,000. Folks, do you realize what $5,000 is? It is like when my kids, they were doing the Summit Athletic Rock, $10,000, Dad, what would you do with ten grand? And I said, kids, it would be very disappointing how far that would not go.
Jeremy: Right? Ten grand it just not a lot of money.
Jesse: It is not.
Jeremy: And if there is a listener out there that is like it is to me, it may be to you, but in the world, right, five grand is the net worth of the average renter over age of 65. Why do you think they measure people over 65, Jesse?
Jesse: Well, that is when we really need the money.
Jesse: We really, once you hit 65 –
Jeremy: How many 25 years-olds are worrying about their net worth? Thinking probably not a lot of them. The average net worth of a homeowner over 65 is? $300,000.
Jeremy: Net worth meaning your net value of all of your assets if you cashed out. And where do you think all that value is? Well –
Jesse: most of it is in the real estate.
Jeremy: Most of it is in the real estate. Okay? So number three, owning a home is a much better financial play, has always been, and will always be, always be than ever than renting a home.
Jesse: Well, it definitely gives you more control. Because if you are renting a home and it is December, and your lease is coming up in January, you have no idea what is going to happen. Most likely, your rent is going to go up. But if you have a mortgage, it does not.
Jesse: It stays the same until you do something with it or to change it.
Jesse: So you get a lot more control, and you are gaining equity.
Jesse: By most of the time, of course, the market rising or paying it down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Point number four, and point number four and five are going to look similar, but they are not. Number four is are prices falling? Home prices in St. George, Utah are not falling. Now, I had an interesting discussion this morning with my brother-in-law. He said a lot of my friends from northern Utah are looking at homes that they were checking out like six months ago and they said they dropped twenty or thirty grand. Did the value of the home drop twenty or thirty grand, or did the seller reduce the asking price that was too high to begin with by twenty or thirty grand?
Jesse: So the seller reduced the asking price, and I have got some data here that is really interesting.
Jeremy: Give it to us.
Jesse: If we look at the Washington County data for just last month. This came out, we put it out on December 2nd. The average list price is 499, but the average sold price is actually 352.
Jeremy: Average ask price was what 99?
Jesse: So those are not obviously on the same homes –
Jesse: — but that is saying that people, the market is just saying okay, sellers are just going to have to reign in their prices a little bit to get their homes sold now.
Jeremy: Correct. So I want you think about this. I had a comment. David, thank you, on Facebook. He said I am kind of worried the prices are coming down, which is a bummer. Hard time to sell. First of all, David, this is a really interesting context. He works in California. Okay? He lives in St. George. He works in California. By the way, I have got a map of all the declining markets in the United States of America. Where are 90% of them? California. Almost all of them are in California, Dallas, Texas, and a handful of other markets. Declining markets. Folks, what is happening with prices right now is that sellers have been asking too much for their home.
Jeremy: And so, we went up and we got up to the peak and then people stretched a little beyond that and said maybe I can get more. Okay? And this is number four. Every single home needs to be reduced. Every listing in the MLS needs to be reduced between 5 and 10%. Virtually everyone. I am going to say everyone. 5-10%. Virtually every home actively for sale, and that includes you For Sale By Owners, needs their price reduced by 5-10% to actually be in line with what the market will support. Okay? Prices are not necessarily falling in Washington County. People were simply asking too much.
Jesse: They are not falling at all.
Jeremy: They were simply asking too much. Okay?
Jeremy: They have not fallen at all. We have no data to support it. Now here –
Jesse: And they cannot. So if you look at the supply and demand –
Jeremy: Keep going. I am going to run out of time.
Jesse: Can you even have a declining market when you have more demand than supply?
Jeremy: Not a chance. Thank you. That is so brilliant.
Jesse: You just cannot.
Jeremy: We still have more demand than supply.
Jeremy: We cannot have a declining market. Here is the fun part okay. Number five, here is the prediction. They asked 100 economists in this report that we went over, they asked 100 economists what they thought home prices were going to do in 2019. 96 of the 100 said?
Jesse: They are going up.
Jeremy: They are going to go up. Now, I do not believe they will go up in Washington County. Okay? Because when they asked economists, do you think they asked an economist in St. George, Utah what they thought?
Jeremy: No, they did not. Okay? Of course, they did not. Because of those 100 economists, probably 75 of them were in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Okay.
Jeremy: We do not think home values are going to rise in Washington County. Okay? But here is what is happening. David made a great comment. It is hard to sell right now. Not many people buying. So this Steve Harney shared a great example. He and his wife went down to buy a Lincoln Towne Car. He is a big guy. He wants a big car. His wife says I want a Lincoln Towne Car. It has been my dream. They go down and they look at all the Lincoln Towne cars. After they look at them, she gets sticker shock. She is like oh, I am never paying that much for a car. And so just like a good husband, he is like okay, honey, whatever you say.
Jeremy: They leave the dealership, and they go out and they look all around town. What did she find after she looked all around town?
Jesse: That Lincoln was the best value.
Jeremy: That what she wanted and what she needed and everything factored in, that the Lincoln was the best value. And where did they go back to?
Jeremy: Buyers hit stocker shock. Here we go. This is such a huge point. David, this is to your point. Buyers had sticker shock in September, October, November of 2018. December is an anomaly and it is hard to even predict what is going on in December. They have sticker shock. I made multiple offers. I am in bidding wars. I offered ten grand over and someone beat me.
Jeremy: I thought I was the first guy in and there were 12 people ahead of me. They got sticker shock. Folks, on January 2nd, all the young families, millennials or otherwise, that have the baby that is still sleeping in a crib in the room that they really needed to get out of the room in September –
Jesse: That is such a good analogy.
Jeremy: — but they are ticked off because the home market is too high. Sticker shock will fade and in January what will they say?
Jesse: They will come back.
Jeremy: I love this baby, but honey, we have got to get him out of the room.
Jeremy: This is driving me crazy. And they will come back, and they are already coming back to the market. Folks, this is a great, healthy real estate market. Have a merry stinking Christmas out there, would you? Jeremy Larkin thanking you saying we know this town. Ask us anything. Write in this thread after this on Facebook.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive here on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU, with the voice of St. George Real Estate, Jeremy Larkin. Again, for more information, give them a call at 275-1690. You will find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.