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Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing email@example.com.
Mike: … St. George Real Estate. Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning. Very good of Dave Matthews to custom record that little bit for our show. Or wait? Is that actually one of his popular, real songs?
Robert: No, that is just for us.
Jeremy: Okay. Cool. Very good. I did always wonder if that was just for us. Okay, guys –
Robert: I like letting it run a little longer, too.
Jeremy: I do, too, because ah, man –
Robert: It gets you going.
Jeremy: It is a good one. It is a good one.
Robert: It is a good one.
Jeremy: It is a really good one.
Robert: It is one of my favorites.
Jeremy: Hope you are all hanging out with us this morning. Jeremy Larkin here, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got Robert MacFarlane. I have got Jesse Poll. Mike McGarry is even still here in the studio. He decided not to just run to the restroom or something during our show. I appreciate it. Good morning to you guys, and thanks for being on here this morning. I hope people are watching on Facebook Live. Should we tell them how to find us? Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. This morning, we are live, and if you are out there in the Facebook-o-sphere, you can just tune in right there and watch what we are doing, and comment and God bless, bless Dave Matthews and God bless him also, Jessica.
Robert: And America.
Jeremy: And nothing better than Larkin Live. That is correct, Patrico. That is correct. And I have got Robert, and I have got Jesse, and I have got, man, this is a good morning. I am glad you guys got up. Jesse, what time did you get up this morning?
Jeremy: Wait a minute. I thought Robert was on a mic. Are you not on a mic?
Jesse: We do not have one over here.
Jeremy: Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh.
Jeremy: 4:45 in the morning. Yeah, Robert.
Robert: It sounded like you are on Price is Right where they tell him to say the price or the product that they are going to get to get up on stage.
Robert: It sounded like Jesse said 445. 446. I got up at 4:46.
Jeremy: And I got up at 4:46.
Robert: One minute later.
Jeremy: Is that classic? Is that classic?
Jesse: The only reason I know that is I hit snooze at 4:30.
Jeremy: Oh okay. Guys, I will be honest that I was up at 4:15, splitting headache. So how many people out there listening to the show this morning, did you wake up, did you have a headache this morning? I know it is because I was clinching my teeth in the night. I know it because I have been doing that. Splitting headache.
Robert: You need a mouthguard, man.
Jeremy: I have a mouthguard.
Robert: Yet, you were still clinching.
Jeremy: Absolutely. Well, the mouthguard, it is not like it has spikes on it, pointing up and stopping you.
Robert: It seems like that would be a good invention though.
Jeremy: It is just there to protect the teeth.
Robert: I think the spikes would work. It sounds like it.
Jeremy: I went to Excedrin. Excedrin is typically my go to. No. So that was 4:15, and then 5:15, so it is has been an interesting morning.
Jesse: So everybody always says that do not have to wear them, I have one and at about two in the morning I wake up and have to find it in my bed somewhere.
Jeremy: Yeah, I do not have that.
Robert: Subconsciously you are just like get rid of this thing.
Jeremy: That is like a retainer when you are in seventh grade. I do not have that. Patrick is asking us what on earth someone does at 4:45 in the morning. You get your mojo on, Pat, that is what you do. Right, Jesse?
Robert: Journal. You do a little meditation.
Jesse: Well, I will tell you what I was doing this morning is adjusting the Basket Brigade documents so that I made sure I know how many drivers and captains. We just want to make sure that we are ready for Saturday and ready to go.
Robert: When we have 190 volunteers –
Jeremy: Okay, let’s segue. The perfect segue. So thank you to all of our listeners. You guys set it up brilliantly as though we had scripted it and we had not. Saturday our 8th, 9th, I do not know which it is. It is long running. The St. George Basket Brigade and thank you, like an incredible amount to everybody out there who has donated, excuse me, who has volunteered, who has nominated families. We are at 175 families to be fed Saturday?
Robert: And counting.
Jeremy: 175 and counting.
Robert: I think a few more coming in.
Jeremy: So we have closed, air quotes, the nominations down, but somehow, we kind of get some squeaked in there. Saturday, we have 212 volunteers that will gather up in Dixie Middle School and stuff these, pack these baskets. They are laundry baskets, and they will go out, and the nominated families who are in need will be assigned to volunteer groups, and they will each take three to four baskets, knock on the door just like that, and let someone know that they are loved and that someone was thinking about them. It is an amazing experience. If you have not fed a family, I wish I could ask you to volunteer. We are packed. I wish I could ask you to nominate a family, but we are packed. If you have not donated and you could feed a family, we always need additional funding and you can do so at St. George Basket Brigade dot org. St. George Basket Brigade dot O-R-G.
Robert: Well, something to keep in mind. Whether you make it in before we do the event on Saturday or not, we are a non-profit organization. So the funds will go to other deals that we do over the year. We do Christmas gifts. We do, what is it? Secret Santa? We do a bunch of different things.
Jeremy: Coins for Kids after this.
Robert: Coins for Kids. That is right.
Jeremy: Any excess funding, surplus funding from the Basket Brigade then will go to serving families at Christmas time. And by the way, I do have a test and yes, so I shared this. Facebook Live from Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin, if you are not watching. I shared it over to our Larkin Group page. Facebook dot come slash St. George Experts, and it is running beautifully there. So you can share it right into your own pages, guys. It should be running there.
Jesse: There is your Facebook expert right there that you were looking for.
Jeremy: We needed a Facebook expert. So I have got Robert and Jesse here in the studio and again, gang, if you can feed a family, and these guys are instrumental. This event does not go down without these guys participating and 212 volunteers and all the donations. So that is Saturday and you can visit St. George Basket Brigade dot org. We would love it. We would just absolutely love your help in pulling off this event. So we are going to talk about some very interesting trends, and by the way, I am going to kind of do something fun today for our listeners. Hang on with us today, and we are going to tell you how you can come in and pick up a pie from us on Tuesday. So it is our, what annual Pie Day? Sixth, seventh?
Jesse: I think it is our seventh.
Jeremy: I think this is the seventh year we have done Pie Day, and we have a, but you have to wait. You need to stick with us until nine o’clock. We run until nine o’clock. I am looking at the countdown timer. We are about 17 minutes here left on the show. Be with us, and we will have you come pick up a pie at Larkin Group headquarters, Tuesday from 4-6pm. That is a gigantic Costco latticed apple or pumpkin. Do you guys know how much those weigh? Did you watch the video that I shot?
Robert: Latticed apple?
Jesse: Two pounds.
Jeremy: A three-pound pie. The latticed apple pie is about three and a half pounds.
Robert: That is what I am talking about. That is what I am talking about. Mike is over there drooling.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, well Mike will be invited also. Stick with us, and we have never actually opened this up to radio listeners. We have always done this for clients, but this year, we are treating you like a client. So check that out. We will talk about it at the end. It is the Larkin Group Pie Day, and we will tell you how you can RSVP and all that kind of thing.
Jesse: If you are on Facebook, it is in the comments.
Jeremy: It is in the comments. We have already given it to you. Boom. All right, gang, we are going to talk about, honestly guys, projecting and forecasting real estate into 2019, and there is so much information, Robert and Jesse, we can go over here. I am going to maybe segue us a little bit and point to where I think we need to look because this is, there is so much information that we could provide. So the real estate market is going through a little bit of a shift, Robert. Right?
Robert: Your analogy that you did, the cream off the top, that was perfectly said though last week. Go over how you said it again because I know I will massacre it.
Jeremy: The cream on the pie.
Robert: The cream on the pie. I always think of it from a beer, the head of the beer.
Jeremy: The head of the beer. Sure.
Robert: Scrape the top off.
Jeremy: Sure, sure, you can go there.
Robert: The soda.
Jesse: I was thinking like the cream of the milk or the butter.
Robert: Oh, okay. That works. That works, too, country boy, thinking of that.
Jeremy: That is exactly –
Robert: Clearly, I know everybody knows where my head is at.
Jeremy: Yeah, I like it. I like it a lot. So what I was talking about last week or the week before is that we are seeing a shift in the real estate market, and maybe like a teaser that I give someone is we are starting to get these emails as real estate professionals that say, from other real estate professionals, hey, price reduced. We just reduced the price of our home. We just reduced the price of our listing. Hey, the seller is really anxious. Seller motivated. We are sitting on five spec homes. Now, the market is not crashing down. But what is happening is, I heard this one two days ago when I shared this with the guys in the studio. I went to a Board of Realtors meeting and someone stood up and said hey, we have ten spec homes under construction. And I thought ten spec homes? These are almost always in the $4-500,000 range. We were not hearing this six months ago. So there is an ebb and a flow, and there is a little bit of an ebb. What is happening is that it is creating this kind of perception that home values are declining because you go oh my gosh, all these people are reducing the price of their home to get it sold. The reality is that they were asking more than the market would support by 5-10% typically, and in reducing the price, they have simply reduced it to where the market actually always was the whole entire time.
Robert: Right. That is like Coca-Cola is on the market $50, and people are saying well, I will sell it to you for $58 or $60, and the stock market is like no, no, no, it is $50, so we are not going to buy it until it gets down to $50 because that is what the price is.
Jeremy: Yeah, you just do not get to sell your stock for more than the market is bearing. Right?
Jeremy: So as these prices are reduced, rather than folks thinking ooh, the market is just totally contracting and values are already falling, that cream that was on top, that 5-10% that was actually outside of the market that the seller was asking in excess of what the market will bear, it is like that cream, and it is just being scraped right off the top. Here is the challenge we have in real estate, guys, is that it is such a consumer confidence-driven business that the moment that kind of gets out there, then people start to go oh, I have got to get my footing. Maybe this is a bad time. Maybe it is a bad time to buy. Maybe it is a bad time to sell.
Robert: Right. It is reactionary.
Jesse: Yes, it is reactionary.
Robert: The idea that just we are leveling out to where we should be, now there is an overreaction, and everybody says oh, everything is changing. Now I have to overreact as to what is going on.
Jeremy: Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So check this out. Okay?
Robert: We almost talk ourselves into a declining market.
Jeremy: We do.
Robert: Rather than actually being reality, we talk ourselves into it.
Jeremy: We absolutely do. And let me say very specifically, this is going to be a more challenging time for people with homes above $400,000, especially $4-500,000 because in the speculation market, the spec home market, what is happening is a lot of spec homes are going up. And a whole bunch of people 6-12 months ago purchased building lots, here, developers, builders, and once they have started on these, it is like they are going to build them. You do not stop construction midway.
Robert: Unless you are in Winchester Hills.
Jeremy: Yeah, up in Ledges. Up in Ledges.
Robert: Up in Ledges.
Jeremy: Let me share something. So guys, if you scroll down here a few pages Robert, on them. We are sharing some economic data. Year-over-year price changes nationally, the low-price range, United States of America, was up 8% over the last year. So 2017/18 over 16/17. 4 ½% in the high end. Right?
Robert: The idea that rising prices float all boats, right? That is not, it sounds great, and it seems like that makes sense. However, clearly the lower prices are going to appreciate a lot faster than the higher prices.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. That is exactly right.
Robert: It just make sense that way.
Jeremy: So I will share a thought. The National Association of Realtors conducts a home survey every year. In the past, I have looked at this, and they typically survey 100,000 people to get about 10,000 responses. It was kind of how that metric worked. They shared this. In the third quarter of 2018, because they ask people how many people are buying, how many people are selling, how did you find your realtor, how did you find your home, was it an open house. They asked them everything. How confident are you in the market? They said in the third quarter of 2018, 27% of people believe that now is a good time to sell a home, which is the highest percent recorded since the collection started in 2015. This is a 10% increase over 63% from 2016. So it is kind of interesting. In terms of consumer confidence, when they surveyed folks here this quarter, 2018, 77% of folks felt like this is a great time to sell their home. When do people typically wait to put their home on the market until?
Robert: Springtime obviously.
Jeremy: Yeah, springtime. Right?
Robert: That is when we do everything. Right? We clean our house. We change our New Year’s resolutions. Right? We normally quit it by springtime.
Jeremy: Oh, that is January 15th, man.
Robert: New Year, New Me. That kind of thing. Same thing with a home. New Year, New Home. Let’s do it.
Jeremy: So if you look at this –
Jesse: Is that why my wife has me painting right now? New Year, New Home?
Robert: Yes, yes. Absolutely.
Jeremy: She always starts at Thanksgiving is what you have told me. There you go right?
Jesse: Pretty smart though.
Jeremy: Yeah, so here is what is interesting. Nationally, most homes hit the market in April, May, and June. In St. George, we tend to see most homes hit the market a little bit earlier. Right?
Robert: Our springtime is significantly earlier than nationally because this is a national –
Jeremy: So guys, what is the annual event upon which everyone wants to list their home in St. George?
Robert: Parade of Homes. Of course.
Jeremy: Parade of Homes. That is when you will see an extra 150 For Sale By Owner signs pop up. Right?
Robert: Every million-dollar home in St. George goes on the market. Every single one.
Jeremy: It is kind of like –
Robert: It goes from like maybe five or six to 63.
Jeremy: Yeah, because look, my home is worth 700, but if I can get a million, I will sell it.
Robert: Done. That extra 300 grand, we could just put that in the bank.
Jeremy: So there is this perception that during the Parade of Homes all of a sudden, miraculously the real estate market will take a massive uptick, and buyers will suddenly lose their minds and do unreasonable and irrational things and overspend. That is not going to happen. But our springtime is more like January, February, March, where most listings across the country are hitting the market April, May, and June. Right? Because if you live in Chicago, it is not spring for a while. Guys, if you look at this, they talked about inventory levels year over year. You will kind of see. Outside of our radio show, you cannot see this. This is the rainbow. It is kind of a rainbow chart. Blue, yellow, and red. And when we look at inventory levels, what is fascinating is it actually showed how this looked. In December of 2017, there were 1.4 million homes for sales. Right? Guys by June, 1.4 million across the country in December. By June, how many were out there on the market?
Robert: Almost 2 million.
Jeremy: Yeah, an extra 600,000 homes hit the market between December and June across the country. It is like a 30% increase, 25%.
Jesse: A couple of years ago, we actually did, or you did a report on December home sales. What we were trying to figure out is did more homes sell in December and during the Parade of Homes. But what was interesting about that is we found out that by March or actually by February, three times the number of homes are for sale –
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: This is kind of fun. Thank you for bringing this up. I just double-checked our URL. You can visit December Home Sales dot com. We actually have a front page –
Jesse: That is right. I will put it in the comments so people can go to it.
Jeremy: Yeah, December Home Sales dot com. The truth about selling your home during the holidays. So what is the misconception?
Robert: Of course, nobody wants to move during the holidays.
Jeremy: Yeah, nobody is going to buy. Nobody is going to sell. Nobody is going to do anything over the holidays.
Robert: Well, and St. George is not like every other market though. We have got to remember that almost half of the sales in St. George are cash sales because people are coming to it as a retirement community.
Jeremy: Is it 50%?
Robert: It is almost 50. I think it like 47 something. It is a lot of cash sales and it is because we know we are a market where people come from to move here.
Robert: And so, they are coming here. They have sold their home in Salt Lake or they sold it in California somewhere, and now they are paying cash for their home because they made a significant amount of money off of it. They come here, and they pay cash.
Robert: And so because of that, there are certain markets, we have got to keep focus on this, townhomes that cannot be rented, that cannot be investment properties –
Jeremy: Got it.
Robert: — probably are not going to be selling crazy in December. However, investors who want to place their investment money before the first of the year, who hey, it is the end of a six-month period and now the renters are out, and they are like hey, let’s sell it. Right?
Robert: That is a market or a retired couple. Everybody likes going to the holidays with family. But a lot of people do not. They are like ah, I will move in Christmastime. That is not a big deal for me or Thanksgiving. Young families probably are not moving.
Jeremy: Correct. Correct.
Robert: Investors. Older families, established homes. They are okay moving during the holidays, and it shows with the number of sales. If you go to, what is it? December Home Sales?
Jeremy: December Home Sales dot com.
Robert: That explains it beautifully.
Jeremy: There is a video of me looking significantly younger there. Wow.
Jesse: Isn’t it amazing how fast we age the older we get?
Jeremy: Jeeminy. Wow. I am thinner now. I am seeing the video, and I am younger. Okay.
Jesse: I was just looking at these numbers the other day because we were meeting with a client that said well, do homes even sell right? And actually, last year 775 homes sold last year from October 31st to December 31st.
Jeremy: 775 homes. Guys, that is a lot of real estate.
Jesse: Right. That is. A lot more than you would assume sells during Christmas and Thanksgiving.
Jeremy: It is a ton. That is one of the first big myths is that nobody is going to buy or sell during the holidays, and the reality is people are going to buy. What is going to happen is there is going to be a dramatic increase on January 2nd of homes hitting the market over December.
Jeremy: And every year it is marked. In this report that we are sharing from, we must slay the myths impacting real estate. 75% of folks believe that what is more affordable than owning? What do we think, guys? 75% of folks believe that what? What do you think out there, listeners? That what is more affordable than owning?
Robert: Probably renting.
Jeremy: Bingo. Okay.
Jesse: Living with Mom and Dad? That is what my kids think is cheaper.
Robert: Nailed it. Nailed it.
Jeremy: That is much worse.
Robert: Can I go backwards? Mom and Dad, if you are listening, let’s move back in.
Jeremy: Much more, much more affordable than renting. Well, emotionally it is not.
Robert: The emotional costs of living with your parents at 31.
Jeremy: What are they going to rank that? So 75% believe that renting is more affordable than owning. And here is a great question. Why? We about four minutes. Why?
Robert: Huge misunderstanding about mortgages and lending and a fear of going to a lender and putting yourself out there, telling essentially a stranger, giving them all, I actually think it is worse if you know the person, to give them all your financial data and say I am at your mercy. Please tell me what I can afford. Right?
Robert: That is a scary thing.
Robert: I think that is why Quicken Loans and those online mortgage companies do so well because there is such a fear that I do not want to go tell an actual human that I have blank amount of debt, and I only make X amount of money.
Jeremy: Correct. Correct.
Robert: In their mind they are going to lie to themselves and say ah, it is cheaper to rent. It is going to cost me too much to own a home, so I do not even want to deal with it.
Jeremy: Because it seems easier. Right? It just seems easier to go get a rental.
Jeremy: Yeah, I do not have to get a mortgage. I do not have to buy it. I do not have to be locked into it.
Robert: And I do not have to maintain it. Right? Somebody else. I have got a broken door handle, and I just put a work order in and it gets fixed.
Jeremy: So this is some interesting data. Below that, Trulia dot com, lots of you out there have been to Trulia dot come or Zillow dot com. They are kind of a sister company. 26% cheaper owning a home was 26% cheaper in 2018 according to Trulia’s data than renting a home.
Robert: That is wild.
Robert: That is a leading indicator as to rent is going up, too. Right?
Robert: If I am an investor, I look at that number. Hmmm, I am going to raise my rent. Why not?
Jeremy: It is not even a question. Yeah, it is not even a question. What I want to invite people to do is, as we wrap up our show today, I want you to visit December Home Sales dot com. It is kind of fun and check out what we are talking about there. Understand that if you are thinking about selling a home, it is okay to put your home on the market. We are about to put three or four beautiful homes on the market. We have photography tomorrow. An incredible walkout basement in Bloomington. And we have photography being shot on a lovely all-brick in Bloomington Hills, and Sun River next week. We have things going on here. So visit December Home Sales dot com. December Home Sales dot com. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an earlier slide that we did not talk about –
Robert: You know what? You should probably share this.
Jeremy: Price increases.
Robert: Share this report.
Jeremy: Yeah, we can share the whole report.
Robert: Come to our Facebook page, and you can go over this whole report. There are 80-something pages. What is this, Jeremy? 80 pages or something like that.
Jeremy: This one is shorter, but yeah, it is long.
Robert: It is long. It has got tons of information.
Jeremy: Right. So the reality is, gang, it is cheaper to own a home than rent one. It just is. It is easier to own a home than you think it is. There will be people buying and selling homes in the month of December, and at the beginning of the month in January there will be a massive increase in listings hitting the market. You need to know that. If you would like to get a pie, so what we want you to do, Jesse, posted it. Come pick up a pie.
Jesse: I did.
Jeremy: That is, Drew, you are right. Homeowning is life-changing. Homeownership is. We will go ahead and we will throw a link in there to the report that we went over today. But Jesse posted a link to our Larkin Group Pie Day. It is Tuesday from 4-6pm, and if you visit, what is the site? Where do we want them to go? I cannot remember.
Jesse: Send them to St. George Home Searching dot com forward slash, actually, if you go to there, it is right up there –
Robert: Yeah, it is up at the top. It says Claim your pie. Don’t be shy. Claim your pie.
Jeremy: So visit St. George Home Searching dot com. That is St. George Home Searching dot com, and you will see the pie link, and we hope you will come pick one up free of charge. Tuesday. Over and out.
Mike: There you have it. As always for more information, you can give them a call at 275-1690 or find them online at Sold in St. George dot com. This has been St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU.