Tag Archives : Keeping Current Matters

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike: KDXU news time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. Southern Utah morning news. Your time once again for another look at the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in wit the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, and I hope you are driving, all of you out there driving somewhere important. What time did you all get up this morning, guys? Chantry, I want to know about you. 4:30? Mike, that mic is not live and I just said Mike twice. I love it.
Chantry: How about now?
Jeremy: Mike, we have been talking about the mic. And Mike says the mic is live. All right. Love it. 4:30.
Chantry: 4:30.
Jeremy: Ouch.
Chantry: I know. Everyday. I cannot help it.
Jeremy: What time do you go to bed?
Chantry: Early. Like I am in bed by nine.
Jeremy: Okay, Mike, when did you get up? I want to know. He is not on the mic, but he is going to tell us. How early was it, Michael?
Michael: 4:45.
Jeremy: 4:45. He got up in 15 minutes, Jeriah. What have you got?
Jeriah: I cannot compete with that. Six o’clock.
Jeremy: Yeah, you know what? 6:30 for me. I have got Andy. Andy is the new guy in the studio today. We do not even have him on. Andy, when did you get up? Like seven. He was five. Okay. So he did not roll in here. Jeremy Larkin here. We have got the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I thought we should find out when everyone got out of bed this morning. Actually, the problem is I was not asleep, so I spent much of the last two hours of the morning thinking about, you know the psychology?
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: I should go to sleep. What is going on?
Chantry: Stressed yourself out. Yeah.
Jeremy: I do not know what is happening. Something must be weird. I do not know. Is the house going to cave in? Is my kid alive? This is the stuff that goes through your head. Right? Finally, at 6:30 I said maybe I should just get myself up, and that would help it. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. The voice of St. George Real Estate. Happy to be with you all this morning. It is raining, and it needs to be raining, by the way. We are in St. George, Utah, and if it does not rain and it does not snow for everyone who is bellyaching this morning, I am going to tell you something. There is not going to be any economic development because they are dry.
Andy: Yeah, water is a big thing. We need it for sure.
Jeremy: It is huge deal. So I have some friends, close friends and family, oh the rain. This is just the worst thing. You have to realize that in late January or February, and typically during the Parade of Homes –
Chantry: I was going to say it is going to wait until the parade, doesn’t it?
Jeremy: Typically, during the Parade of Homes it is going to rain for three straight days, but these are these soaking rains that give us the moisture that we need to run this community. So we are happy to do it. Today is January 17, 2019. I do not know how many times you all put 2018 so far on whatever your putting dates on, but I have definitely had a couple.
Chantry: Oh yeah, lots of times.
Jeremy: Well, yeah, you are doing mortgages. I have got Chantry Abbott here who is one of my very close friends and just an absolute amazing home mortgage lender. Someone who, he and his team, Steven Stout and the people at Guild Mortgage, they help people get the money they need so they can buy a home. And I have been having such fun discussions with my kids lately, my 12 and 13-year old. Because they will be like, Dad, how do you buy a house? What a great question. Dad, you do not have $300,000 laying around, do you? Well, no I do not. And then I get to talk about –
Chantry: That is cool.
Jeremy: Right.
Chantry: I have not done it for a while, but even a handful of years ago I had a college professor that taught finance. I would go teach him about credit even at the college level. That was kind of fun.
Jeremy: Oh yeah, it is. Right?
Chantry: Even now, adults do not have a clue yet still. Unless you have bought one, there is just no way to know.
Jeremy: There is no way to have any real kind of concept of that. So I have this conversation with my boys. Well, no, most people, some do, what percentage of deals are cash right now?
Chantry: I have heard like 40%. It is a lot.
Jeremy: It is a lot.
Chantry: We are always higher. The national average is probably more like 25.
Jeremy: It is a lot of cash deals, man.
Chantry: Southern Utah has always been high, right. Just because it is a big retirement, selling homes in California, it has always been a high cash market.
Jeremy: Right. Right because, and Jeriah says he is surprised. And if you think about this for a minute, gang, and we are going to introduce him better momentarily. A lot of these folks they have a home. Regular people, ooops, I knocked that right off. Regular people have a home in California. A regular home. Like regular folk, as they say. They buy a house for $250,000, $450,000. It now appreciates to $850 or a million and they go to sell it. They have been paying the mortgage down for 15 years.
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: And they show up in St. George with $500,000 in their hands. Right?
Chantry: Yeah.
Jeremy: And they look, it is different than you think. And they look really rich. Like man, these rich buyers from California. A lot of these people are regular people just like me and us and our listeners. These are not people who are so independently wealthy. They are just folks who bought at the right time, they held real estate. We have been talking on this show for five years that it is such an incredibly better decision. Chantry, you probably heard us talk about, maybe you have been on here, the average net worth of a homeowner over 60 years old, over 64 years old is $300,000, and the average net worth of a renter over 64 years old is five grand.
Chantry: Wow.
Jeremy: That is what Keeping Current Matters put out.
Chantry: When you speak about the average, a lot the California people –
Jeremy: There is no net worth.
Chantry: The average buyer typically what we see is they are retired on a pension. We get a lot of firefighter, retired policemen, school teachers, five grand a month pensions, not very good in Southern California, but here it is pretty good. They can do well.
Jeremy: Yeah, you are not doing anything in Southern California.
Chantry: So that is what happens is –
Jeremy: That is your property taxes.
Chantry: — they have to change.
Jeremy: So I have got Chantry Abbott here with Guild Mortgage. We have got Jeriah Threlfall. I love saying your name, and everybody does. I got up this morning and I just said it a lot of times so it could be easy. He is with St. George Economic Development. Do we call it the Economic Development Council anymore?
Jeriah: Yeah, sometimes we do. Economic Council office. Anything works.
Jeremy: I am going to put into my English, and I am going to let him correct me. But these guys work with really pushing healthy growth for St. George, and what we are talking about is economic development. Right? Bringing businesses in, especially value-added businesses. I am going to have define that momentarily for our listeners.
Jeriah: Okay.
Jeremy: And the reason I speak with fluency, right, because, you might remember, but my first career was with Gilbert Jennings and Larry Gardner. That was my first real career doing Fort Pierce Industrial Park. I got a lot of experience at the time. Scott Hershey. But these guys are looking to bring commerce to Washington County, jobs to where we live. So define value added, Jeriah, for us. What a value-added business is.
Jeriah: To keep it simple, historically, we have always looked for people that make something in our area and then it sell it to someone outside of our area.
Jeremy: Beautiful.
Jeriah: Just a really dumb-downed version of value added. We try to look for people who are not competing with established businesses in the area, and then recently, we have expanded as well. We are also looking for professional. We are having some good success going and recruiting, for example, like small engineering firms out of California.
Jeremy: Cool.
Jeriah: Need a place to relocate. It is interesting you were talking about a pension. Five thousand a month pension does not do as much for you in California as it does here. We have got companies where their engineers are making $160,000 a year –
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jeriah: — and they cannot buy a house.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jeriah: And they live four hours from the coast. It is not, they are not trying to buy a beach house.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are not on the water.
Jeriah: They are in a climate that is almost exactly like ours. Kind of a high desert. They cannot afford. The older, the people who have been at the company 20 years or so, they have their houses. They are okay. But the people coming out of college, unless the husband and the wife are engineers, they cannot buy a house at $160,000 a year.
Jeremy: Is that wild, Chantry?
Chantry: That is wild. Yeah. How many people in St. George do I meet that are making $160,000 a year? That is very few.
Jeremy: How many? How many a year? What percentage?
Chantry: A handful. Less than 1%.
Jeremy: Less than 1% that come through your mortgage office are making 160. Combined incomes.
Chantry: Yeah, probably combined household. Yeah.
Jeriah: Yeah, one of the companies that we have been working with is in Paso Robles. I think their median home price is like 675.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Chantry: So 675, what would you say ours is?
Jeremy: 300.
Chantry: 300. So yeah, more than double.
Jeremy: They might see 330 but 300 realistically. Because the median is the middle. Right? And Jeriah makes a great comment here about value-added companies. So for instance, Olive Garden is not a value-added company. Right? Because it is almost like to tell people, show people what it is not.
Jeriah: Right.
Jeremy: Talk to me about a company that is coming to St. George. Let’s talk about the economic summit from a week ago and then we can put this in perspective.
Jeriah: People who are coming right now? We have got a lot of people we are working with that we are still under confidentiality agreements with.
Jeremy: Okay, what type of business?
Jeriah: If you look at someone who presented at the summit was Ram, the Ram Company.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jeriah: Textbook. They are value added. They make their solenoids and their aircraft parts and all these things and they sell them all over the world. So they are taking money from other local economies and bringing it in to our economy.
Jeremy: Versus coming in and saying well, we are competing with all the other companies locally. They are really not.
Chantry: So value added, let me understand that one more time. They do not compete with somebody local.
Jeriah: They can and still be value added. We try. We are not going to go recruit someone who does the same thing Ram does.
Chantry: Ideally, not competitive, but (indiscernible)
Jeriah: For us. Yeah.
Chantry: But the main thing is they are exporting outside of our area, so they are bringing money into Washington County that Washington County is not paying for.
Jeriah: Fresh dollars.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Chantry: Wow. That is cool. I love that, too.
Jeremy: I love that. Fresh dollars. That is a good way to say it.
Chantry: I have known Jeriah for years. I have been to the Economic Summit for years.
Jeremy: You did his mortgage loan. Right?
Chantry: Yeah.
Jeremy: He did. Yeah.
Chantry: And we get this all the time. I get this all the time.
Jeremy: Even Jeriah had to borrow money to buy a house.
Jeriah: Just a little bit of it.
Chantry: People always say I wish St. George would get some jobs. It is like it is not lack of effort. It is just probably a long road.
Jeriah: It is.
Jeremy: Sure.
Jeriah: It is, and it is interesting that when the economy is down people are nervous to make a move because they are like things are down right now. And right now, we are facing the battle that the economy has been good for so long that people are afraid it is going to go down. And so, time is huge. We have got companies that have relocated to the area. Most of them have made initial contacts with us two years before. Sometimes you get a really quick one on a smaller-sized business, but we have got 13 projects in our pipeline right now.
Jeremy: Whew.
Chantry: What do you guys do to help the company?
Jeriah: It depends on how sophisticated they are on their own end. If they are a bigger company, they will have their own, like Family Dollar that just recently came here. They have their own site selection team. So, we help them. We make connections for them. We help line up state incentives, local incentives, anything we can do to help.
Chantry: So some of these companies can get state government incentives or local –
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: — money to help them come here.
Jeremy: And this is kind of cool. I am just throwing a thought in here. So, Family Dollar comes to down. Do you remember what they spent on that land? I am trying to remember. It was a ton.
Jeriah: It was a lot. It was right before my time, but it was a lot.
Jeremy: It was. So they come into town. They buy the land, which pumps tons of money in the economy.
Chantry: Yeah, think about how much that cost you.
Jeremy: They built this massive facility, which pumps tons of money into the economy. They create jobs. Right? Which is creating jobs. Then the facility is now using, has usage, uses things. It uses power, and of course, one of the number one reasons that these companies go to Fort Pierce is, Jeriah, drum roll, please.
Jeriah: Cheap power.
Jeremy: Cheap power.
Jeriah: Very reliable. Very good power.
Jeremy: Cheapest or second cheapest power grid. Was that what I remember?
Jeriah: In the nation. Yeah.
Jeremy: In the nation. Is that crazy, Chant? Dixie Escalante.
Chantry: So that is a big reason that they are coming.
Jeremy: Huge reason, man.
Jeriah: We are working with a company right now that is in Southern California. On this on, southern California helped us by taking their building for eminent domain.
Jeremy: They kicked them out.
Jeriah: So they are in a building they do not like right now. But yeah, just what we can safe them in power will cover the lease on a building here.
Jeremy: Could you imagine? Think about that. Just what they save in power, and that is Dixie Escalante right out there on Brigham Road in Bloomington.
Chantry: So I am just a mortgage guy. That is all I have done my whole life. I do not know any of this stuff. That is really interesting, I think, for the average person that is not involved in the development to think that the county is actually trying to give money, finding ways, grants, to bring these businesses. It is a tiny, tiny investment for the return the county is going to get probably.
Jeremy: Correct.
Jeriah: The way I think about it is 90% or more of all incentives that are given are actually just a return on the property tax that they are going to pay. So you take a vacant piece of land and whoever owns it is paying $2000 a year on property taxes. Making up easy numbers.
Chantry: Because they are just being taxed on the value of the land –
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: — which is not a lot.
Jeriah: Then you go throw a million-square-foot building for Family Dollar –
Jeremy: A million square –
Jeriah: — and all of it that entails and all of their equipment and everything, and now, they are not only paying $2000 in property tax. Maybe they are paying $100,000. So the incentive actually isn’t cash typically out of anyone’s pocket. They pay that property tax and say we, however it gets approved. I think each project, depending on the jobs they bring it and everything—
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: They may get 20% of that property tax back for the first five years. So it is not even new money. It is not taking –
Chantry: That is crazy.
Jeriah: — money out of our coffers, so to speak.
Chantry: The crazy part is we are making our money back on the property taxes. You did not even mention that. You mentioned jobs and employment –
Jeremy: Yeah, property taxes.
Chantry: — and building the building and all those other cool things that go along with it.
Jeriah: The companies that, I say we, Scott was here forever.
Jeremy: Sure.
Jeriah: For those that know Scott Hershey. He was here for 20, 21 years before I came in when he retired. The companies that our office has brought in over the last 25 years, the property tax, we went through just for fun once and added it all up, and then allocated it out. And for example, just those companies that we helped, let alone all the rest, contribute about $750,000 a year to the school in property taxes.
Chantry: And all property taxes are county-driven, right? Each city gets a little click, but you are mostly talking about the county?
Jeriah: Yeah, so the county gets, say out of this, I cannot remember the numbers. I should have brought them. Say it is a million dollars, just for easy, that these companies that we brought in pay in property tax per year. The county would get about $20,000 of that. Most of those companies are located in St. George, so they would get about $75,000 say. The school district, the library, the mosquito abatement gets like $2000 a year. All the different tax amenities, the water conservatory district gets some. Any taxing entity gets their portion –
Chantry: Very cool.
Jeriah: — and that is all set by, that is all pre-set.
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: When you look at your, when you get your property tax bill, you can go and look at the same thing. It says right on it what percentages, what multiplier, how much goes to the school district, how much goes to the –
Chantry: Jeriah is the monopoly man on a county level.
Jeremy: He is. He actually is. Utahopoly or whatever it is. You guys, I am going to ask both of you. So Jeriah is with, of course, St. George Economic Development. Chantry Abbott is a great lender here in town, and Chantry was at the economic summit last week. I was not. I was here. So give me the highlights. What do you feel like the highlights were? And Chantry, speak up, too, because you attended.
Jeriah: For me, the highlight was all the technology worked and there were no glitches because that is what I sit there and worry about the whole time. If the mics quit working or everyone has videos. It just stresses me out.
Jeremy: How many people attended, by the way?
Jeriah: About 900.
Jeremy: So you have got 1000 people almost. All of them on their phones. All of them on the free wi-fi.
Jeriah: Yes, we have issues before but the Dixie Center has upgraded and it went flawlessly this year as far as the technology goes. But I really felt like the keynote speaker in the morning, Shawn Nelson, the CEO of Lovesac –
Jeremy: Lovesac.
Jeriah: — just absolutely killed it.
Chantry: He nailed it, man. It was awesome. I loved it. He was my favorite part, too.
Jeremy: People said he was great.
Chantry: He is just very like super down-to-earth guy. Even kind of had some funny photos. You know the 10-year challenge that is going around right now?
Jeremy: Yes.
Chantry: Before the 10-year challenge last week, he had like three photos of him of when he was on, in fact, he was on a show with Richard Branson.
Jeriah: Yeah, the rebel billionaire.
Chantry: And he actually –
Jeriah: — with the bad hair. He kept saying –
Chantry: He wore it and had like, I want to describe whose hair, but I, it is like bleached, really long, like down to his shoulders, kind of a chubby-faced looking 20-year-old basically when he started this thing. It was cool.
Jeremy: Oh man. Boy-band hair.
Chantry: Yeah, and he is just making fun of himself, just really easy going.
Jeremy: Who are we talking to? It is his brother-in-law. Who are we talking to this week?
Chantry: Jeremy Back.
Jeremy: Jeremy Back. Thank you. It is Jeremy Back’s brother-in-law. Jeremy Back is my, really the only other Jeremy really in real estate right now, and the CEO of our brokerage.
Jeriah: Okay.
Jeremy: It is his brother-in-law. Classic. Okay, so Shawn Nelson was awesome with Lovesac.
Jeriah: Yeah, he really was amazing.
Jeremy: What is a takeaway from him?
Jeriah: His message is incredible as far as the sustainability of their business model. But the thing that I got the most I went home and told my kids that are little, inspiring entrepreneurs is that he never gave up. His first order was for 12,000 lovesacs, and he did not have a way to make them. So he went and got an agricultural loan and bought a tractor and a haybuster and used that to shred foam. So he got a USDA agricultural loan, drove it to downtown Salt Lake, parked his tractor outside the building, ran a pole in so he could turn the haybuster and shredded foam to make this order.
Jeremy: This is so good, man.
Jeriah: He had to put a ticket to Shanghai, China on his credit card so he could go order the fabric.
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: He did not know he could speak Mandarin Chinese thanks to his mission.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jeriah: So he was able to negotiate better than the average 20-year old.
Jeremy: Oh heavens.
Jeriah: It was incredible.
Jeremy: This is good.
Jeriah: It was a great story.
Chantry: Same thing and then I think the order wanted, the first company wanted a $60,000 deposit, which he did not have $600.
Jeriah: Right.
Chantry: For the order. Right?
Jeriah: To the factory, the Chinese factories.
Chantry: He said well I am Lovesac, and I have never had to pay a deposit.
Jeremy: He put it out there.
Chantry: And they thought wait a minute. So they gave him the money because he just acted like he had it figured out.
Jeriah: The factory needed 60,000, so then he called the people who placed the order and he said yeah, I need the 60,000 deposit. They are like we do not do deposits. He is like well we have never done one without a deposit.
Chantry: I am Lovesac. I have never done a deal without a deposit. Which is true because he had never done a deal.
Jeremy: This is pretty funny.
Jeriah: He kept saying we are the best not beanbag company in the world. It was like him and his cousin.
Jeremy: Wow. I have to tell you that it is super helpful to me just a couple of thoughts you just shared there.
Chantry: And the journey he went through I think was the point Jeriah was making. Knowing how hard it was, would you start over and do it again? I do not know. It was, was it 20 years in the making and he has had a lot of, he has failed a lot of times and had a few really crazy successful moments.
Jeriah: Yeah, he showed pictures of the Lovesac Limo and then the restructuring and then the ups and downs. But the thing that I kind of relate everything to my kids and how interested they are in things. And the thing that I told them that I was really impressed with is that he had an idea and he got off the couch and did it. And that is his slogan is get off the couch, and it makes sense because get off the couch and onto a Lovesac, but it is also a life creed. How many 18-year-old kids, he tells it he was just sitting around eating a bowl of Captain Crunch like a week after school, and he was like how cool would it be if I had a beanbag that was as big as from me to the TV? And then he was like I am going to get in the car and go to Joann Fabrics and make a big beanbag.
Jeremy: We are going to do it.
Jeriah: And now he is the CEO of a publicly-traded company based off getting off the couch for that one good idea.
Jeremy: Yeah, a northern Utah kid.
Jeriah: Yep.
Jeremy: Born and raised in Utah at the risk of the risk. A Mormon kid. Right? They are not Mormons anymore. It is the Church of Jesus Christ, but truly a local kid. Not Richard Branson. Right? Not Bill Gates. Not Seth Godin, one of the great thought leaders that we follow. Because it is always somebody else. But what he is saying well, not really. Why does it have to be somebody else?
Jeriah: Yep.
Jeremy: Why can’t it just be anybody right off the couch right here? So what other highlights from the summit?
Jeriah: That was my favorite. Do you have anything you want to say?
Chantry: How many people normally do you have? It seemed, I have been to a few and it seemed sold out. It was awesome. A great turn out.
Jeriah: Yeah, we have been growing. We sold about 70 more tickets this year than we did last year. We are about the maximum.
Jeremy: You almost sold me one. Well, Dixie State D1. I do not want to miss that.
Chantry: Yeah, that is cool.
Jeremy: Dixie State announced they are Division 1. It was pretty cool this morning on my way, I live right downtown, Jeriah, close to our office. I am by Town Square, so I take a kid to Tonaquint and then I take a kid to Dixie Middle, and then I come back up to the show. It was fun to see the one up here with the light where the D was not lit up and then you could see the one was completely temporary.
Jeriah: Yeah, it was pretty exciting.
Jeremy: Right. So Dixie State is going Division 1, which, what does it really mean for the university and the town? In a simple overview. Better athletic opportunities, of course, and athletics in college is money to the college.
Jeriah: For me, and I do not speak for the whole university or town or anything obviously, but for me, I think it validates it. There is no higher level –
Jeremy: Right.
Jeriah: — and so we all have believed in Dixie State University clear back when it was the high school, the junior college, the everything in between. The thing that I am excited is to be able to watch them compete against the top level in sports or anything else.
Jeremy: Right, and just for fun, Division 1, just because I know a lot of out, I know you are a sports fan, but a lot of listeners would not know this. So to give you perspective, when we are talking about Division 1, here are your top five ranked football teams – Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Georgia. That is Division 1.
Jeriah: Right.
Jeremy: So even the non-sports fans are like oh, that is Division –
Chantry: We are one of those.
Jeremy: — yeah.
Chantry: Dixie is one of those now.
Jeremy: We are going to get killed in the short-term at sports.
Jeriah: At first. Well, the nice thing, I was at, they announced that on Friday at the university and they had all the student athletes come.
Jeremy: Cool.
Jeriah: And I was just standing there waiting to talk to somebody, and I heard a couple of the athletes talking about now they are Division 1 athletes and just the pride that they felt in that, that they get to compete at that level for the next four years.
Chantry: That is a good point because if you are high school kid, you want to be able to say hey I went D1. It is top, top level. That is cool.
Jeriah: Yep. I think it is a great thing. It is a great opportunity for all of the students. It is a great opportunity for our town. For me in economic development, it is huge too because anything you can do to get outreach and get some notoriety, and people ask questions like that. It is not, the number one concern is is my business going to be profitable? Can I succeed there? But then right away, they typically go to the university and the culture that it brings.
Jeremy: Yep.
Jeriah: That is where you are going to get most of your plays and your concerts and your sporting events and all of these things and being Division 1 is going to be a good thing for us.
Chantry: So what Division 1 schools are there in the state? BYU? Utah? Weaver? Logan?
Jeriah: Yep. SSU.
Chantry: SSU is D1. And then Dixie.
Jeriah: Utah Valley.
Chantry: They are D1 as well?
Jeriah: Yeah, so we will be in their conference now. And that is the amazing thing is when this started being talked about, we –
Jeremy: Ten seconds.
Jeriah: Because no one thought we could get into a conference and we got –
Chantry: How cool.
Jeremy: By the way, I was a Dixie State graduate when it was a two-year college.
Chantry: Same here.
Jeremy: Got my associate’s degree. You got your associate’s degree.
Chantry: Yep.
Jeremy: Jeriah Threlfall, thank you, man.
Chantry: So cool.
Jeremy: Chantry Abbott, thanks for being in here. Folks, Mike is going to give you some contact information if you have got real estate questions. We will help you in 2019. Thank you.
Mike: Thanks for joining us. If you would like to know more about St. George Real Estate, give them a call at 275-1690 or Sold in St. George dot com.

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday morning. It is time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in once again with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Hopefully Mike will plug me in here. I do not know where this thing plugs into. It plugs in somewhere. Hey, we are live in the Cherry Creek Radio Studios on North Bluff Street. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, you would see the chaos ensuing. By the way, chaos unneeded in life. It is okay to not have chaos. It is okay to live drama-free. It is not a problem.
Jesse: But it is not fun.
Jeremy: Nah. Yes, it is. It is a lot of fun, and it is okay to live without drama. I assure you right now. Okay? So you have a little, thank you, Mike, little snafu. Plugged in. I can actually hear now and be involved and engaged in, as they say, present with you. Hey, Merry Christmas. You can hear the jingling of the bells. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, I think just envision a little more than, not lime but not forest green sweatshirt with a bunch of kitty cats all over the front of it with bells, actual bells and a few Christmas bows. I think it is a nice sweatshirt. I asked Jesse to wear an ugly sweatshirt this morning. Ugly sweater, he put on a nice sweater.
Jesse: Well, I could not find my Christmas sweater, my ugly sweater. So I have a shirt. I thought that was for later.
Jeremy: Well, he asked a question this morning in our group feed. Over at the Larkin Group, we run a real estate company. If you guys do not know who we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Been hosting this show for at least five years. We might have pushed clear back into 2012, which would be over five years. I know we are five years, and we run a real estate company here in St. George, Utah, and we help people through what seems really easy but ends up being the third most harrowing experience of their life shy of a birth, a death, fourth most, a birth, a death or a divorce. Literally, buying and selling and moving is –
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — it seems to be next for most people. We help people through that process –
Jesse: Very stressful.
Jeremy: — of buying and selling and investing and help them make good decisions. But I have got Jesse Poll here, one of my business partners, great guy. But this morning on the group chat, we have a group chat. Right? And he said do you want us to bring a Christmas sweater or an ugly sweater? And I said there is no difference, dude. There is no such thing as a Christmas sweater that is not ugly. It is actually a fact.
Jesse: Now, I am corrected. There you go.
Jeremy: I do not care if you show up with a reindeer on your shirt –
Jesse: That is ugly.
Jeremy: — like a nice stag and you think something like this is cool. This is masculine. It is an ugly sweater, dude.
Jesse: And there you go.
Jeremy: Okay, so as long as we know that. Hey, if you are not watching us on Facebook Live, please, you can pick it up and you can see what we are doing. Ask us anything. This is one of the things that we are going to start talking about on our shows. You can ask us anything about the real estate market. And if you do, it should pop up on our screen here. Today, we are going to talk about, it is, by the way, December 20, 2018 for those who are picking up our show later on the podcast or over at our website, Sold in St. George dot com. If you would like to listen to past shows, you can literally go to Sold in St. George dot com. Each show is about 23 minutes long, 24 minutes.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And we have them on there again. Sold in St. George dot com and click on the blog. But if you are watching on Facebook, let us know you are out there. Give us a thumb or a heart or ask a question. Ask us anything. We are going to talk about five things you have to know about the real estate market moving into 2018, 2019, excuse me. Because 2018 is eleven days ready to expire, right. Eleven days from now we will be done with this year, and you will be writing, fortunately, most people are not writing checks. We do at our office, and you can stop putting the wrong date on, or start putting the wrong date on everything.
Jesse: This is the first year I did not do that. Maybe it is because I do not write checks anymore.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Well, there you go. There you go. I write a handful. Not personally. Well, occasionally even personally I write one, but typically, typically, I am writing checks only for the business. So you all know what we are talking about. Right? It is January 7th, 10th, 20th, 30th, and I do not even know if there is a 40th in there, and you are still writing 2000, I think you write 2018, the previous year until at least June.
Jesse: At least.
Jeremy: And then you start over. Hey, here is a New Year’s resolution for everybody. Most people burn out on their resolutions by about January 20th, and do you know why? This is actually not a joke. I am going to tell you why if you would like to know.
Jesse: Because they are unrealistic. They are not really goals.
Jeremy: They may be realistic.
Jesse: They are pipe dreams most of, most of the New Year’s resolutions that I have ever done is a pipe dream, and they change my entire being instead of just making a little bit of an improvement.
Jeremy: And I like that. So they may be realistic. They may not, but what you are saying is right. What happens is, so we work in the real estate community, and we will be doing some business planning tomorrow as a team. We will go off site and do some great motivation and business planning for 2019. Well, what will happen is someone will say I want to lose 20 pounds in 2019. Or I want to sell 30 homes in 2019. So they divide that out by the months, and they say okay, I am going to have to lose X number of pounds or sell X number of homes per month. What happens is about January 20th, 25th, they find out that they are already behind, and what we do is we start to hate ourselves right then. We go oh well, this is just like 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, and 12 when I said the same thing. And oh five and six. And instantaneously, we start to hate ourselves for, and I know hate is such a strong word, but I have to be honest, folks. It is pretty much a hatred if you are real honest out there. I realize you are saying are we doing a psychology show? Well, real estate is psychology. But just for fun, here is a New Year’s resolution. You write out who it is you want to be, what you want to have, and what you want to do, and you start with who you want to be because that is what we are going to do tomorrow as a team. Who do I want to be? What will I need to do to have what I want to have? Right? And if I cannot be the kind of person that has those things, then I will not be able to have them, that does those things, I will not be able to do the things to have the things.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Then the resolution, folks, is you just accept yourself where you are at. And if January 20th comes around and you were supposed to lose three pounds and you have lost zero, you say, you know what, I love myself for the effort I am making all the way through January 20th. That is 20 days I was making a stronger effort I was during the month of December when I was eating all the goodies that they kept dropping off at my office. And the neighbors kept swinging by. Boy, it was nice of them to bring me toffee and fudge.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And then guess what you do? You get up on January 21st, and you reboot, and you try again. That is the resolution that I am going to encourage our listeners to do. Is you love yourself for the goal.
Jesse: You just keep going?
Jeremy: Yep, you love yourself for failing at the goal. You love yourself for your humanity. You love yourself for the fact that you screwed up the previous five years, and then you just keep going.
Jesse: But I think the most important part of what you just said is we do not take into fact that it is going to take a little bit longer to actually get the habit or the whatever we are reaching for –
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: — to start to show up. Take the weight loss. It may be in the 35th day that it really starts to change our metabolism.
Jeremy: Yeah. We have been thinking a certain way for 30, 40 years most of us, and sometimes 50, 60, 70. So hey, that is your psychology lesson for this morning.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: But truly, I think it makes such an impact when you are able to do that. Let’s talk about five things you have to know about St. George and the real estate market. So we, Jesse and I, last night and this morning, excuse me, we spent a few hours breaking down some information provided by a company called Keeping Current Matters and a fellow named Steve Harney. And what Steve Harney does, Keeping Current Matters is he spends all of his days and nights, drum roll please, researching the market. That is all he does.
Jesse: This guy says he reads eight hours a day. Reads.
Jeremy: Reads.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: And we have a lot of real estate. By the way, the failure rate for real estate agents is you make decisions to hire an agent in 2019. The failure rate for real estate agents is 87% over how long?
Jesse: Five years.
Jeremy: Over five years. So, 87% of real estate agents will either quit the business entirely or take another full-time job even if they keep their license active over a five-year period.
Jesse: You know what number surprised me in that data was there is 1.3 million real estate agents, and only 47,000 of those that will do more than 25 units or transactions a year.
Jeremy: Okay, so think about this. 1.3 million real estate agents –
Jesse: In the U.S.
Jeremy: In the U.S., right. And 43,000, is that what they said?
Jesse: 47,000.
Jeremy: 47,000 –
Jesse: Will do more than 25 transactions.
Jeremy: — divided by 1.3 million. 3.6% of the professionals that, because realize, you as a consumer if you are listening to our show, if you know someone who has a license, in your mind, and by the way, you are not ignorant, it is just you have no reason to believe that they would not be a professional.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: But we are telling you that there is actually a 3.6% likelihood that they are really good at what they do.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: By the way, it might even be lower than that. You might have people selling 30 homes that are not good at what they do. But let’s just assume that by the time you are selling 25 transactions, you –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: You know what you are doing. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, their feet are wet.
Jeremy: 3.6% chance that you are hiring someone who actually, who has actually really been doing this a long time and who has, who can, they might have your best interests at heart, but Jesse, I might have your best interests at heart when you are laying on the street bleeding, but I do not have the medical ability and professional expertise to save you from dying.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Do we see that? And man, I know that was a gruesome one. That was a good one. Just because someone has your best interests in mind does not mean that they can serve and meet your best interest. So okay, they broke this down, and we are going to nail this thing this morning. This is so powerful, this information. There are five things that we want you to know, and I am going to warm us up this morning because we want you to be, our listeners, the smartest kids on the block. We always talk about that. Right? If you walk away from the show every week saying did not know that, did not think about that. Ring your jingle bells as I am jingling along here and maybe watch Jingle All the Way with Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know he is the world’s worst actor? But somehow it is fun to watch him.
Jesse: I enjoy watching him.
Jeremy: It is like watching a car accident. You just want to see. 1,400 real estate agents in Washington County according to Robert. Good morning, Robert. 1,400, okay?
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: Times 1,400. That means, that is about right. 50 agents, 50 of the 1,400 in Washington County are really selling at a volume level. I call that 25 or more transactions. Which is actually pretty good since the minimum standard to even be at the Larkin Group is?
Jesse: 24.
Jeremy: 24 transactions. Yeah. So we cannot even have a sales person on our team that is not selling 24 homes. Just too complicated. They do not have enough information to help the client, and there you go. Good morning David and Kierstin. Love having all of you on here this morning. Number one, are you guys ready? Five things you have to know about the real estate market. Number one, we are not in a bubble. We are not in a bubble.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: This is not the next housing bubble. Jesse, give us a definition of a housing recession.
Jesse: Two months –
Jeremy: Two quarters.
Jesse: Two quarters of downward pricing or –
Jeremy: Yeah, the economy is slowing down.
Jesse: — is slowing.
Jeremy: If I tell you that we are in a recession, you get nervous. Right?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: That is a scary word. Right? But if I tell you hey, I was noticing, the economy slowed down the last two quarters. Do you quite get that chill down your spine?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: You should not because they are different. Recession is like a four-letter word, a really naughty one.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? So a recession is nothing more than two straight quarters of economic slowdown. Okay. Folks, if you go to your children’s track at their school this morning, and they line you up and they say you are going to do, you are going to run as fast as you possibly can around this track. Like what do you mean? Am I going to run a mile or two miles? I need to know how long I am running so I will know how fast to run. No, Jesse, I want you to run as fast as you possibly can until you have to stop. How far would you go realistically you think? 400 meters around that track. How far do you think you could actually, far you think you could go at the fastest?
Jesse: How far at the fastest?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Probably half way.
Jeremy: That is about it. That is probably about right for most people. You would just about keel over at 200 yards.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So what you are telling me is that you cannot keep running at your very fastest speed all the way around the track indefinitely?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: Neither can the economy.
Jesse: Sixty seconds is about –
Jeremy: Yeah. And neither can your car at 100 miles per hour. It will run out of fuel. Your Tesla will run out of power. The economy cannot continue at this pace. So when we say it slowed down for two quarters, it is like thank goodness. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number two data point, market interest rates are rising. We have heard that interest rates have been rising. Okay? This is a two point. Interest rates are rising, and the reason is because the economy, Jesse, is good or bad?
Jesse: Because it is good.
Jeremy: Isn’t that an interesting way to look at that? Isn’t that a different way to look at that?
Jesse: Right, but they have needed to rise because the Fed has been actually holding them, they have been paying money to hold them down.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: To boost, or to continue to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: They have been bribing the economy.
Jesse: We cannot do that forever.
Jeremy: Right?
Jesse: Without some pretty severe consequences.
Jeremy: Lincoln, Darrell, Devin, that is like a triple power. If you guys all knew each other. Well, actually Devin bought Lincoln’s home. So maybe they do know each other. Small world. Good morning, guys. Think about what you just said. Right? Interest rates are going up because the economy is in good shape not because it is in bad shape.
Jesse: And because it is time. In St. George, anyway, for a year we have said wow, this has got to slow down. We cannot continue this pace.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have been watching my kid run around the track for the last several years, and he looks sick.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: This does not look, this is not good.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I think he is going to have a heart attack.
Jesse: So we have been praying for this, and now it is just time.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. This is fun. Point number, we are going to come up to one about equity in just a minute.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So point number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay? We are not even close to a housing bubble and we are going to give you more data to prove that. So the question is are we in a bubble? Is this, okay, we are not in a bubble. Number two, interest rates are rising, but it is because, Jesse?
Jesse: They need to.
Jeremy: They need to. Okay? And by the way –
Jesse: To stabilize our economy, they need to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way, Jeremy, what do you think interest rates are going to do in 2019? I do not know, guys. Honestly, I am tired of making predictions. They keep, they raise them, and then they said they were not going to raise them.
Jesse: And then they lowered them.
Jeremy: I do not know what they are going to do. Okay? Here is what I do know. We have used this analogy so many times. If you are about to travel across 200 miles of open desert in the middle of the summer, and you see a sign that says this is the last gas station, water, and services for 200 miles, and your children are in your car, do you or do you not stop?
Jesse: You stop.
Jeremy: You stop. You are like I do not know. We will buy something. Get some gum and use the bathroom.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: What I know is interest rates are what they are today, and historically, they are half of historic, half of what they were historically. Meaning, folks, if rates ever go back, we talked about it with Chantry Abbott from Guild Mortgage last week on the show, if rates went back to the historical average, your payment would go up $500 per month if you went to get a new mortgage. Oops. Okay. Number three, this is pretty exciting. Owning a home has always and will continue to be a much better financial position than renting. Let’s talk about the data.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Okay, this is number three. Did you hear what they said what the net worth of the typical home renter was over the age of 65?
Jesse: I did not. I did not catch that.
Jeremy: Did you miss that? Okay, I do not know if you grabbed it.
Jesse: Well, I heard it, but I do not remember.
Jeremy: The typical renter over the age of 65 in the United States of America has a net worth of $5,000. Folks, do you realize what $5,000 is? It is like when my kids, they were doing the Summit Athletic Rock, $10,000, Dad, what would you do with ten grand? And I said, kids, it would be very disappointing how far that would not go.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Right? Ten grand it just not a lot of money.
Jesse: It is not.
Jeremy: And if there is a listener out there that is like it is to me, it may be to you, but in the world, right, five grand is the net worth of the average renter over age of 65. Why do you think they measure people over 65, Jesse?
Jesse: Well, that is when we really need the money.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: We really, once you hit 65 –
Jeremy: How many 25 years-olds are worrying about their net worth? Thinking probably not a lot of them. The average net worth of a homeowner over 65 is? $300,000.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: Net worth meaning your net value of all of your assets if you cashed out. And where do you think all that value is? Well –
Jesse: most of it is in the real estate.
Jeremy: Most of it is in the real estate. Okay? So number three, owning a home is a much better financial play, has always been, and will always be, always be than ever than renting a home.
Jesse: Well, it definitely gives you more control. Because if you are renting a home and it is December, and your lease is coming up in January, you have no idea what is going to happen. Most likely, your rent is going to go up. But if you have a mortgage, it does not.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: It stays the same until you do something with it or to change it.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So you get a lot more control, and you are gaining equity.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: By most of the time, of course, the market rising or paying it down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Point number four, and point number four and five are going to look similar, but they are not. Number four is are prices falling? Home prices in St. George, Utah are not falling. Now, I had an interesting discussion this morning with my brother-in-law. He said a lot of my friends from northern Utah are looking at homes that they were checking out like six months ago and they said they dropped twenty or thirty grand. Did the value of the home drop twenty or thirty grand, or did the seller reduce the asking price that was too high to begin with by twenty or thirty grand?
Jesse: So the seller reduced the asking price, and I have got some data here that is really interesting.
Jeremy: Give it to us.
Jesse: If we look at the Washington County data for just last month. This came out, we put it out on December 2nd. The average list price is 499, but the average sold price is actually 352.
Jeremy: Average ask price was what 99?
Jesse: 499.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So those are not obviously on the same homes –
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: — but that is saying that people, the market is just saying okay, sellers are just going to have to reign in their prices a little bit to get their homes sold now.
Jeremy: Correct. So I want you think about this. I had a comment. David, thank you, on Facebook. He said I am kind of worried the prices are coming down, which is a bummer. Hard time to sell. First of all, David, this is a really interesting context. He works in California. Okay? He lives in St. George. He works in California. By the way, I have got a map of all the declining markets in the United States of America. Where are 90% of them? California. Almost all of them are in California, Dallas, Texas, and a handful of other markets. Declining markets. Folks, what is happening with prices right now is that sellers have been asking too much for their home.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: And so, we went up and we got up to the peak and then people stretched a little beyond that and said maybe I can get more. Okay? And this is number four. Every single home needs to be reduced. Every listing in the MLS needs to be reduced between 5 and 10%. Virtually everyone. I am going to say everyone. 5-10%. Virtually every home actively for sale, and that includes you For Sale By Owners, needs their price reduced by 5-10% to actually be in line with what the market will support. Okay? Prices are not necessarily falling in Washington County. People were simply asking too much.
Jesse: They are not falling at all.
Jeremy: They were simply asking too much. Okay?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: They have not fallen at all. We have no data to support it. Now here –
Jesse: And they cannot. So if you look at the supply and demand –
Jeremy: Keep going. I am going to run out of time.
Jesse: Can you even have a declining market when you have more demand than supply?
Jeremy: Not a chance. Thank you. That is so brilliant.
Jesse: You just cannot.
Jeremy: We still have more demand than supply.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We cannot have a declining market. Here is the fun part okay. Number five, here is the prediction. They asked 100 economists in this report that we went over, they asked 100 economists what they thought home prices were going to do in 2019. 96 of the 100 said?
Jesse: They are going up.
Jeremy: They are going to go up. Now, I do not believe they will go up in Washington County. Okay? Because when they asked economists, do you think they asked an economist in St. George, Utah what they thought?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: No, they did not. Okay? Of course, they did not. Because of those 100 economists, probably 75 of them were in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Okay.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We do not think home values are going to rise in Washington County. Okay? But here is what is happening. David made a great comment. It is hard to sell right now. Not many people buying. So this Steve Harney shared a great example. He and his wife went down to buy a Lincoln Towne Car. He is a big guy. He wants a big car. His wife says I want a Lincoln Towne Car. It has been my dream. They go down and they look at all the Lincoln Towne cars. After they look at them, she gets sticker shock. She is like oh, I am never paying that much for a car. And so just like a good husband, he is like okay, honey, whatever you say.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: They leave the dealership, and they go out and they look all around town. What did she find after she looked all around town?
Jesse: That Lincoln was the best value.
Jeremy: That what she wanted and what she needed and everything factored in, that the Lincoln was the best value. And where did they go back to?
Jesse: Lincoln.
Jeremy: Buyers hit stocker shock. Here we go. This is such a huge point. David, this is to your point. Buyers had sticker shock in September, October, November of 2018. December is an anomaly and it is hard to even predict what is going on in December. They have sticker shock. I made multiple offers. I am in bidding wars. I offered ten grand over and someone beat me.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I thought I was the first guy in and there were 12 people ahead of me. They got sticker shock. Folks, on January 2nd, all the young families, millennials or otherwise, that have the baby that is still sleeping in a crib in the room that they really needed to get out of the room in September –
Jesse: That is such a good analogy.
Jeremy: — but they are ticked off because the home market is too high. Sticker shock will fade and in January what will they say?
Jesse: They will come back.
Jeremy: I love this baby, but honey, we have got to get him out of the room.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: This is driving me crazy. And they will come back, and they are already coming back to the market. Folks, this is a great, healthy real estate market. Have a merry stinking Christmas out there, would you? Jeremy Larkin thanking you saying we know this town. Ask us anything. Write in this thread after this on Facebook.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive here on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU, with the voice of St. George Real Estate, Jeremy Larkin. Again, for more information, give them a call at 275-1690. You will find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.