Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Andy: Good morning. 8:36 on News Radio 94.9 890 KDXU. It is Thursday and that means it is time for the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy, how are you, man?
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Everybody.
Jeremy: Every body.
Andy: You have piqued my interest, by the way. He gave me a little teaser before we went on the air here about the most expensive and least expensive homes in Washington County. And he would not tell me.
Jeremy: I know you asked, Andy asked well what is the most expensive home and what did I say?
Andy: You will find out.
Jeremy: You shall find out. Listen, we have talked about this. It is no different than your newscast. Hey tonight at ten, we are going to find out exactly, tonight at ten find out what is lurking in the shadows for your teens. And you are like what do I need to know about my teens, and then it will be at 10:27pm. 27 minutes into 30-minute newscast.
Andy: You have to sit through the whole thing. Are you going to make us wait 27 minutes?
Jeremy: Heavens no.
Andy: Okay, good.
Jeremy: I would not do that.
Jeremy: It is not who I am. Good morning, Joe. Joe is watching.
Andy: Hey, Joe.
Jeremy: Joe is in. We got some people. Guys out there. By the way, guys and gals, everybody as they say, make sure you comment and say good morning. Give us a thumbs up. Float a heart. That is one of the famous kinds of webinar things people do because we are in a business where we watch a lot of webinars. Hey, float some hearts over there. Any whose. Gang, Jeremy Larkin here. Host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. It is Thursday. I have got Jesse Poll here in the studio. Jesse decided to show up in a t-shirt and baseball cap. It is like he does not even care. Tell us about your t-shirt because it says red day. I think people are going to want to know.
Jesse: Well, it is, all over the country, Keller Williams offices will be shut down today and out doing a community project somewhere.
Jeremy: Theoretically shut down.
Jesse: Yes. We will still be doing business, but the office will be shut down. We will be out there cleaning the park on our phones doing transactions, but we will be serving the community.
Andy: You have got a red shirt on under your sweater. I am guessing it is the same one.
Jeremy: It is not the same one, but it is similar. It is similar. So this is, today is Red Day.
Jesse: Yeah, today is Red Day.
Jeremy: Which is Keller Williams’ Red Day. Keller Williams is, so you know, a lot of our listeners, most of our listeners know that we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, CEO of the Larkin Group. Jesse and I are with the Larkin Group. We are a home-selling team. So in the real estate world, we have to have our real estate license shingled. Right? Hung under a brokerage umbrella. We could have our own brokerage, and we just felt like it was not worth the hassle and the liability when we belong to the greatest company on the planet, which is Keller Williams Realty.
Jeremy: Red Day, there are two kind of elements here. Number one, Keller’s branding has always been red. But in addition to that, red stands for do you remember?
Jesse: Let’s see. Renew, energize, and donate.
Jeremy: Renew, energize, and donate. What does Red Day stand for? It stands for renew, energize, and donate. It is our annual day of service. Every second Thursday of May we celebrate Red Day as part of our legacy worth leaving, which is part of the core values of the company Keller Williams, and we believe that at Larkin Group. So today we will be at Little Valley —
Jesse: Little Valley.
Jeremy: — Park, I guess. Little Valley Park, ballfields and that kind of thing planting trees, and boy, is it strange. The weather?
Jeremy: This is, it does not feel like May. 61 right now, maybe something like that. It is really cool. It is supposed to be cool all day long. Seventies for the weekend. Hey, make sure you stay in touch here in the next five minutes for the 10-day forecast. Oh wait. See, at some point I think we are an Iron Man promoter, St. George Arts Festival promoter. What are we? Are we running a real estate program here? I think we are running a real estate program, and today we are going to talk about the most and least expensive homes. So if you see us, by the way, wrapping that up, out at Little Valley Park, all these people in red shirts. That is Keller Williams Realty out here doing our day of service. And it is our little, it is a fingernail portion of something. Right? Everybody needs to do our part. If we are not all doing something, it really does not happen. So there you go. You know what I love, Jesse?
Jesse: What is that?
Jeremy: It is how these companies love to say look at. We are doing Red Day. We are the greatest. We are, you really should know that there is no one better than us. Everybody. There are lots of people doing service today in St. George.
Jesse: There are a lot.
Jeremy: There are probably 50 service projects going on right now by massive organizations.
Jeremy: But we are doing our part. Right? So there you go. If you want to check it out and see what that is about, you can google Keller Williams’ Red Day or KW Red Day. So we are going to have some fun. People like to talk about the most and least expensive homes, and there has been some interesting news, and I do want to talk about this as we get the show going. If you do not want to watch us on Facebook Live, if you feel like you cannot swing over or stay on Facebook Live because you know what, maybe your boss will find out, you can make it seem really normal by just turning on the radio in the office. See, people forget, our Facebook listeners forget that we are a radio show. Good morning, Facebook viewers and listeners, YouTube viewers and listeners. Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Jeff. I have got double Jeffs. I have got Jeffs all over the place. This is crazy right now. But you can listen to 94.9 FM, 890 AM, which is, of course, originally where we stream from, broadcast from here at the Cherry Creek Studios. You can google 890 KDXU Livestream and you can pick it up there, and you can just stream it. I do not know. There are a lot of cool apps you can get on your phone. That kind of thing.
Andy: We have our own app, too.
Jeremy: Wait a minute. You do?
Jeremy: Wait a second.
Jeremy: I did not know that.
Andy: 890K. You did not know that?
Jeremy: I am out of it, man.
Jesse: I did not either.
Jesse: All those days that I was trying to stream it from my computer and –
Andy: Yeah, yeah, you could have had the app. The only problem with the app is that it is about 30 seconds behind live.
Jeremy: Ah, that is okay.
Andy: And so, when we do these contests, people call in and I have already given away the prize because they are listening to the app.
Jeremy: Yeah, they are like wait a minute.
Jeremy: Wait, they feel like they are getting gipped.
Jesse: So you can announce, if you are on the app, just call me 30 seconds before you need to.
Andy: Yeah, read my mind.
Jeremy: Yes, read his mind. So there is an article that came out this week. It said there is this Riverwalk, a brand-new Riverwalk project coming online down on Riverside Drive, St. George, talking about this new affordable housing, and you can only understand that any time anything goes on Facebook, mainly there is negativity.
Jeremy: Because Facebook has become, and social media, but mainly Facebook has become like this outlet for everyone to share all their anger and resentment with the planet. Right? Which is unfortunate.
Jesse: And each other.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is really frustrating.
Jesse: It is sad.
Jeremy: I hate it. So years ago, The Spectrum, The Spectrum newspaper had something called the Vent, and they got rid of it.
Andy: I remember that. Yeah.
Jeremy: Do you remember that?
Andy: It was vile.
Jeremy: It was vile. It was vile. It was like Facebook. So it was like, Andy, when you release an article on affordable housing, and everyone hops in and says can you believe the greed? Can you believe the greed of business owners who would want to like, I do not know, build a house and make a profit? Can you believe these guys? Jesse, can you believe these guys? This guy opens a pizza joint here in town, and guess what, he wanted to make money.
Jeremy: Can you believe the greed? Can you guys believe that Cherry Creek Studios here sells stuff, radio? Honestly, I am offended. Okay? I am working for, have a I made my point?
Andy: You have.
Jeremy: And this is the classic line we get. Affordable housing, LOL. It is always an LOL. LOL. Yeah, is it just greed or have values really gone up that much? Gang, let me see if I can give you an economics lesson that is going to last about 60 seconds. Here goes. Prices of everything on the planet are driven by you.
Jesse: It is true.
Andy: That was ten seconds.
Jeremy: Well, there is about 45 seconds left.
Andy: Oh, there is more. Okay.
Jeremy: That means you and me and the three of us in this studio and everyone listening to this show, we drive the economy. Greedy builders air quotes and greedy real estate agents and greedy homeowners do not drive the market. The market is driven by consumers –
Jesse: But wait a minute. Isn’t it also greed to try to keep them down?
Jeremy: Of course it is.
Jesse: By buyers.
Jeremy: Because, of course, this is –
Jesse: It is all about greed.
Jeremy: Hypocrisy of the whole entire idea.
Jesse: Or not. It is just about life.
Jeremy: We are really just dealing with an economy, and what is happening in the economy is people start to move here and then what happens is the builders go oh man, I was selling this home for 250, but now the cost of my lumber went up, and the cost of my concrete went up because it is getting busy. Oh, and the cost of my labor went up because I am having a hard time getting guys. So they raised their price a little bit. And then people say I think I will pay a little more. And the builder says well, cool, if they will pay a little more. Gosh, if I was getting 260, maybe I can get 265. But then the cost of their labor and the cost of their materials goes up. So we have this cycle that happens, and as long as, I guess if we just want to boycott development, then we can absolutely, so government by the way, Thomas Sowell, you know who I am talking about, this famous writer, he has been in the paper. He had a piece that was really phenomenal years ago about how government intervention in housing prices does nothing. It actually creates almost the reverse outcome. So folks, listeners, buyers, sellers, homeowners, future homeowners, landlords, renters, I have covered every person that listens to this show. You are responsible. Isn’t that just liberating to know that it was your fault, to know that it was your fault and my fault and Andy’s fault and Jesse’s faulty? It is everybody’s fault that houses are expensive here because we are part of an economy. Here is what is not happening, and I am going to answer the question for all the people that complain about these. I am going to answer the question. Is it just greed? Nope. Sorry. Builders do not find out that they can sell their home for 300 when they were selling it for 240 and raise it to 300. There has never been, that is not, it is just so incremental. What about in 2005 when I bought a house and like 6 months later it was fifty-grand more?
Jesse: That was still the economy.
Jeremy: Still the buyer’s fault. Come on. Right? Now that I have been on my soapbox –
Jesse: But wait a minute. Let’s stop there. Who in their right mind –
Jeremy: Oh should we be done?
Jesse: No. Wait.
Jeremy: Thank you. Okay.
Jesse: Who in their right mind if you were selling a home if it was actually worth 300 and you had for some reason got it wrong, who wouldn’t change that if they could?
Jeremy: Let’s flip it on its end. All the buyers that can afford homes, so by the way, what we have is we have, and there was some great commentary on this article about this riverfront project. There actually are one in like fifty comments is actually valuable. We have a wage problem. Right? We have a wage problem. And understand that wages, that is a whole, that is a whole entirely different can of worms. Right?
Jeremy: We have a wage problem. Remember, this is where all this crazy profit that people want to make in their business comes in. We have a wage problem because people want and need to make money. That is what business is about. Right? We do not live in a utopian society where we all get together tonight and like everybody down the street cooks a massive meal, and then we all eat from a bowl together. Right? We live in an economic, a democratic economic system, and what that means is people go out and they do what they want, and if they want to start a business like a lemonade stand, Andy, have you ever owned a business?
Jeremy: Yeah, what did you do?
Andy: Well, first of all, I had a vending business about 15-20 years ago. Vending machines and stuff like that. I have had an LLC for myself. I have been a freelancer for quite some time.
Andy: And that was a business as well.
Jeremy: So nobody stopped you from doing that. Right? That was part of being an American. You get to do that.
Andy: I loved it. Yeah.
Jeremy: So I can go get a business license in the City of St. George for pretty cheap and I could start washing windows. I could get licensed and bonded and I could be a window washer. And that is part of the beauty of this country. Now, we are going to get to the highest, most, we really are. I am making them wait.
Andy: You are teasing.
Jeremy: We are teasing. But I think this is so important, and I hope that our listeners are really taking this in. When you live in this kind of an economic free market system, hey, the good with the bad. The good is guess what, in the United States of America you are not held down like in some of these terrible Third World or Middle Eastern areas where the people are oppressed. They cannot own a business. They cannot do really what they want. The flip side of that is things get expensive, and right now housing is feeling pretty expensive in St. George compared to wages. We do our little part. I guarantee you we pay more in our office than the average employer in town. I know for a fact because every time I talk to employers, they are like you pay that much, yeah. But that is our part. We are one company. So Jesse, people are, the inquiring minds want to know. It is May ninth. What is the most expensive now that we have soapboxed that, and gang, seriously, I am happy to have a discussion with you. Contact us at sold in St. George dot com. Sold in St. George dot com or you could call us at 275-1690. We are happy to pick this discussion up. All right? So most expensive home sale this year?
Jesse: Home sale?
Jeremy: Does anyone have any idea? Could anyone, I do not know, maybe one of our Facebook viewers has an idea. I do not know. We would see a comment come over there if they had that.
Jesse: So the most expensive home sale –
Jeremy: Most expensive home sale recorded publicly.
Jesse: $4.5 million.
Jeremy: Whew. How did you get a mortgage on that, man? Did it require a down payment for you?
Andy: How many pools do you have, Jesse?
Jeremy: $4.5 million. Where was it at, man?
Jeremy: Say more than that. I know exactly where it was.
Jesse: 2860 South 20 East, Washington Townside.
Jeremy: Yeah, so people are like what is that?
Jesse: It is right downtown. Kind of.
Jeremy: Not really.
Jesse: No, no it is not.
Jeremy: I have got to correct you. I have got to correct you.
Jeremy: Clear out in the field. South by Adam Lane. This is this big Tuscan estate. Brent Minor sold it. Congra-freakin-lations, Brent. I know which property he is speaking of. I am not looking at it, but I am very familiar with it. Four-and-a-half, would you believe this? $4.5 million.
Jeremy: Now I am going to give people perspective today. So Jesse, that is the real number. Four-and-a-half million. Was it 4.5 is what it closed for?
Jesse: Yeah, 4.5.
Jeremy: Give us some more data. Like what? Was this like three-bedroom, two-bath, two-car garage with a quarter-acre lot?
Jesse: Thirteen thousand square feet, seven bedrooms, seven bathrooms, five-car garage on seven acres.
Jeremy: There you go. So what this place is –
Jesse: It is an estate.
Jeremy: It is a resort. It has got its own pond, lake whatever you want to call it out there. I have not seen jet skis on it. Maybe it is not that big.
Jesse: Okay, but now, let’s, obviously that is an outlier. Let’s talk about the next most expensive is $2.8 million off of Long Sky Drive in St. George. That is in the Ledges of St. George.
Jeremy: Yeah. $2.8 million. Here is what is about this. I spent some time on Coronado Island outside of San Diego a month ago. We went to a friend’s home and it was a two-story, 2400 square foot home. So 12 on the main and 12 up. Kind of that like wood paneling, almost like a horizontal wood paneling, really basic traditional home built in like the 1980s. Right? I looked at the Zillow Zestimate. We have been beaten up on the Zillow Zestimate, but when you are in that kind of place, all you can do is just kind of look at a trend in the area. $3.5 million. The home was average, guys.
Jeremy: It was not much.
Jeremy: Somebody said in this thread about this affordable housing. LOL, can you believe there is no affordable housing here. Somebody said why don’t you try living in Orange County? So we have to keep perspective.
Jesse: Right. Because even though our wages are low, they are not astronomically low compared to California.
Jesse: Compared to their real estate prices.
Jeremy: So Jesse, so that person at Coronado Island, they sell the house for $3.5 million and they move to St. George, Utah.
Jeremy: They are a $3 million purchaser here aren’t they?
Jesse: Possibly or they could pocket half of that and buy a really nice house for one-and-a-half.
Jeremy: And when they buy that home here, whoever finds out they buy it is convinced that the people are independently wealthy. Right?
Jeremy: But they may have not been independently wealthy. They simply did what?
Jesse: They bought right.
Jeremy: Bought right. They bought a house a long time ago in a place that went skyrocketed.
Jesse: They bought at the right time.
Jeremy: They might have had a regular job. Sold this home and just become absolutely really cash rich for a short period of time.
Jesse: My in-laws I think have that. They have lived in the same home for 25 years, I believe. I think they bought it for like 250.
Jesse: It will probably be over $1.3 million.
Jeremy: Imagine that.
Jeremy: And they will have paid their mortgage off.
Jesse: If and when they sell.
Jeremy: So, $4.5 million. All right. Most expensive home sale so far this year. $4.5 million. And when he says Washington Townsite, where it gets confusing is Washington Townsite is anywhere in Washington that does not have like a subdivision attached to it.
Jeremy: So it is clear out there in Washington Fields by what we call Adam Lane. Adam Lane is this one cul-de-sac of homes where everything is like 52,000 square feet on an acre. So that is a little overwhelming. What is the, give it to us, what is the least expensive home sale this year? And by the way, well, we can qualify it.
Jesse: This throws people because –
Jeremy: Twelve million, Joe. You were high. I would like to know where the twelve was. He guessed.
Jesse: This throws people because if you do not put in single-family home, you are getting trailers that you could buy for $10,000.
Jeremy: So is there something that sold for $17,000?
Jeremy: I see it. So that is not only an anomaly, we cannot look at it.
Jeremy: So what would be the most expensive condo, townhome, or single-family home? The least expensive that sold. And I can tell you right now what I have got.
Jesse: You have got it pulled up?
Jeremy: Yep, I absolutely do. So far this year, let me tell you, you can go out there and buy, yeah, you buy a Bryant Head condo. Right? You could go and buy a condo at Bryant Heat for $35,000 or $40,000. You could buy a fractional ownership. You could buy a mobile home on a rented lot, which is what Jesse is talking about.
Jesse: The least expensive property in the MLS was actually a fractional ownership in Las Palmas.
Jeremy: What was it?
Jesse: $20,000 for a condo.
Jeremy: So we cannot use it as an example. What does fractional ownership mean?
Jesse: That means that you just, you are probably a fifth or sixth owner. There are a team of owners, and you get it for what, one or two weeks a year, depending on how many owners. But the least expensive –
Jeremy: So we know, see how that throws Andy off?
Jesse: — single-family home –
Jeremy: If people go well, I saw something sold for $17,000. Well, really it did not.
Jesse: So the least expensive condo, let’s just talk about greater St. George.
Jeremy: I know exactly which one it is.
Jesse: Is $80,000.
Jeremy: I know exactly which one it was. Why do you think I know which one it is? Because we sold it.
Jesse: Because we sold it. That is right. We do not just deal in million-dollar properties, folks.
Jeremy: Thank you, Heidi Flannery. Amazing client out of Washington state. So $80,000, Spring Tree Gardens. One-bed, no bath, no kitchen, just kidding. I just want to see if people are paying attention. A hole in the wall from the demolition. It is a one-bedroom, one-bath, 588 square foot condo in a place called Spring Tree Gardens. $80,000.
Andy: 588 square feet.
Jeremy: That is it, man.
Jeremy: There is just, right. There is not much.
Jesse: Okay so –
Jeremy: So let’s talk about a single-family home. What do people want to know? What is the least expensive sale right now for a single-family home this year? Okay? This is going to be fun here for people to know about. True single-family home. Now what will happen is when you go into the Multiple Listing Service, it will like mislead you.
Jesse: So I am going to take out the 55+ communities. Okay?
Jeremy: Oh, that is okay. I already have the answer for you. Do you want me to give it to you?
Jesse: Yeah, give it to me.
Jeremy: All right. I was just going to see if he had it, if he was beating me to it.
Jesse: I had it.
Jeremy: 1114 North Jefferson Street. Okay. So 1114 North Jefferson Street. People are like what is that? It is a place called Painted Hills Estates. What is that? Well, it is kind of fun because at the end of the day there are like 500,000 subdivisions in St. George and nobody knows what they are. Okay? We have got two minutes. Fifteen hundred, this is really interesting. 1512 square feet for $155,000. Jesse, that is the cheapest sale that I showed anywhere in Washington County.
Jesse: Okay. So you are actually wrong.
Jeremy: Okay, what do you think is the cheapest one? Because when I pulled my search, that was the cheapest single-family –
Jeremy: — well, you know what?
Jesse: This is tricky because out in Hurricane you have got Quail Lake Estates, which is a single-family home.
Jeremy: No, cannot count it. Cannot count it.
Jesse: It is a single-family home.
Andy: Those are tiny. Those are tiny.
Jeremy: Still cannot count it. I still do not count it.
Jesse: But if you take out those –
Jeremy: Here is why. Here is why it is basically, there are a lot of trailers in there and a lot of modular homes.
Jesse: There is, but this one is a single-family home.
Jeremy: Okay. What was it?
Jesse: It was 770 square feet for $129,000.
Jeremy: Okay. There you go.
Jesse: It is a regular community.
Jeremy: Check this out. So there was a sale on 100 South that Baw Britridges, a good man over at Keller Williams, had that was $144,000 that I did not include. It was interesting because it was listed as commercial and residential, but it shows up in the residential search.
Jeremy: So, this was a single-family home that was 996 feet, a block from our office. When it says it needs a lot of TLC, let me see if I can describe this for you. It includes a bulldozer –
Jeremy: — running it over in the final minute. So right now, gang, let’s wrap this show up with this. Housing is feeling pretty expensive in Washington County based on what is available.
Jeremy: Based on, excuse me, based on income. $4.5 million was a highest sale. We had a single-family home arguably at $130, call it $150,00 for a true single-family in like downtown St. George or Hurricane.
Jeremy: $150,000 is as cheap as you are going to get if you are lucky, and it is going to need a whole bunch of work.
Jesse: You are going to have to be quick, too, because it is going to sell like that.
Jeremy: Greed is not driving our market. Okay? If it is, then it is because we are all greedy.
Jesse: It is pent-up demand. So let’s talk about that next week.
Jeremy: Well, that is exactly. Pent-up demand is driving our market. If you are thinking about buying a home, if you are thinking about selling a home, we want you to visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. Man, we could have fun with this discussion for hours.
Jesse: Next week.
Jeremy: Sold in St. George dot com. Oh, we are going to have some fun with it. We are going to find out when we talk about pent-up demand and what that means, like why people were kind of sitting around for five or six years not buying anything.
Jeremy: Over and out.
Andy: Thank you, Jeremy, Jesse. Time for news on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU.
Carl Wright of R1 Appraisal: Where are St. George Home Prices Going? (St. George Real Estate Radio Show)
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing email@example.com.
Andy: These guys have maybe the coolest theme music out there.
Jeremy: Yes, we do.
Andy: St. George Real Estate show with Jeremy Larkin. Jeremy joined today Carl Wright. Guys, I love talking about real estate. I am always kind of in the market for a different house even though I have been in my current house seven years. Maybe you can help me out a little bit.
Jeremy: Listen, I have got some stuff in the $2-3 million range I think you should look at.
Andy: Okay, can I borrow a couple of mill?
Jeremy: Here is the deal. I would happily contribute to your down payment. I cannot say what, but hey, by the way –
Andy: A couple of cows or –
Jeremy: — welcome. Welcome to the show, Andy.
Andy: Thank you, Jeremy. It is great to be here. I have been looking forward to this day for about a week. I have been here what, three times now, sitting and listening to you guys –
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, this is –
Andy: — but Mike would never let me talk.
Jeremy: No he would not. He would not.
Andy: Now, I get to talk.
Jeremy: Last week was the famed, final, final, the farewell show. Mike is no longer with us. Is that how you say it?
Carl: That is sad.
Andy: Well, I will say this. I called a basketball game with him last night, so I know he is still with us, he is just not with us.
Jeremy: He is with us. Which game did you guys call?
Andy: Pineview Dixie. Three-pointer at the buzzer in overtime. It was a great game.
Jeremy: Wait a minute. Who won?
Andy: Pineview won it.
Jeremy: Oh man.
Carl: Oh wow.
Jeremy: See I was not, literally I was so focused in other things I did not even know they were playing last night, which is sad because I am a Dixie High graduate. And that used to be, that was the rivalry. But the rivalries now, there is a variety of rivalries. It used to be Pineview and, excuse me, it used to be Cedar-Dixie, which was –
Jeremy: — when I was young. And then it became Pineview-Dixie. And now there is, there is kind of a variety of rivalries. Isn’t there, Carl? What do you think? What do you think the real rivalry is now?
Carl: Gosh, it is, I think there is a rivalry between everybody now.
Jeremy: Your kids, your kids will go where? Crimson or Desert Hills?
Carl: We will go to the new Crimson.
Jeremy: You will go to Crimson.
Andy: Brand-new school in the fall.
Carl: Brand-new school.
Jeremy: Yeah, so it is has changed. The dynamic has changed. Three-pointer at the buzzer. Good grief. I think I just had a traumatic episode thinking about Jordan and him, the fallaway three-pointer on the Jazz in the 1996 –
Andy: Oh, flashback.
Carl: Thanks for bringing that up.
Andy: Yeah, thanks a lot.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are never going to live that down because genuinely speaking the Jazz are never, ever going to probably have that chance again. I am sorry, guys. It is what it is. It is hard to attract, hey welcome to St. George Real Estate sports show. It is hard to attract, I have said this forever. Now, I am going to beat up on my own state. I was born and raised in St. George, Utah. My father was born and raised in St. George, Utah. So we love, we love this state. We love this city. We love, but it is very hard to attract talent to Utah. Right?
Jeremy: Because the big stars are not super interested in, and can we just call it what it is, our liquor laws. Our lack of nightlife. Very much like state religious kind of predominance. They are just not interested. And that is the same for BYU and University of Utah. University of Utah has done pretty well, but at the end of the day, I love my state, but it is just hard, right, to attract talent.
Carl: True, but I have to say that Donovan Mitchell has totally –
Carl: — revitalized the sports enthusiasm —
Carl: Can I say that?
Carl: — for the Utah Jazz. I love Donovan Mitchell. I love what he is all about. His on and off the court. He is a great, great face for the Utah Jazz.
Jeremy: Yeah, and they have come along.
Andy: To illustrate your point a little bit, Rudy Gobert should be an all-star right now. He did not get it, and I think, more than anything, is because he plays in Utah and not in New York City or LA or –
Andy: — somewhere else. And that is another reason why the great talent is not going to sign –
Jeremy: Not. It is, it is frustrating.
Jeremy: That is okay. That is okay. Here we are. We are here. We are live. St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I am Jeremy Larkin, the host of the program. I have got, by the way, if you look on Facebook it says the insanely handsome Carl Wright. By the way, the insanely handsome Carl Wright joins us to share some trends that are not being told or shared, I should have said shared, by any other real estate professionals in town. And the reason I say this, it is not that it is going to be that controversial, but it is what we have been talking about, and there is this kind of, remember when you were a kid and you plugged your ears and said I am not listening, I am not listening –
Jeremy: — to your brother, sister, sibling, cousin. There is a lot of that going on right now in Washington County. A lot of I am not listening, I am not listening, I am not listening. Gang, we are inviting you this morning to actually save yourself a whole bunch of pain in 2019 by listening to what we have to say in this program. And the question that might come up, are they going to tell us that the market is crashing? No.
Jeremy: No, but, but, right, Carl? But there is information that people need to know if they want to make a good decision this year.
Jeremy: We are happy to be here. I am happy to have Carl here. Happy to have Andy Griffin here, who is not the new Mike McGary. He is Andy Griffin, and he is going to be fantastic. You moved here from where?
Andy: I have been in Southern Utah for 25 years. I grew up in Texas. In high school, my parents, much to my chagrin, moved to Salt Lake County and I told them flat out I am not going. I am staying here. I am going to stay with my friends. But when you are 14, 15 years old, you really do not get that choice.
Andy: So they actually sent me off to a camp and moved while I was gone.
Andy: I no longer had a home.
Jeremy: You were strong when you said you were not going even though you were going.
Andy: Exactly. And then, I have been kicking around Utah. Spent one year, way northern Idaho, Moscow, Idaho on a (indiscernible) there. The thing I did not like about Idaho is the thing I love about here. The clouds rolled in October and did not leave until March. It was gloomy. It is cold out there, guys, but it is a glorious, sun shiny day. I love it.
Jeremy: It is. I am a big mountain biker. And I would happily go out this afternoon, get a beautiful ride in, put an extra layer one. It is going to be high 40s. That is a cold day, but not a big deal. Right? By the way, Bryant Head Ski Resort, I have, just so everyone knows how I operate. The Bryant Head webcam is typically pulled up on, there you go, Carl. On my computer.
Andy: Oh wow.
Jeremy: It is just always up. Bryant Head, check this out. So I was up there over the weekend. They had 10 inches Saturday night, and I thought well, that was nice. They have had 35 inches since then. So 45 inches, almost four feet. Eagle Point Ski Resort is at 31 inches. Storm total. So if you are wanting to get up there and get some skiing in –
Carl: It is a good time.
Jeremy: — or snowboarding, I have got to say –
Carl: That is the wonderful thing about St. George is that you can enjoy —
Jeremy: Right. That is why –
Carl: — you can enjoy the sunshine and not having to shovel your walks, but 45 minutes you can be on the slopes.
Jeremy: Yeah, gang, I have absolutely biked and skied in the same day in St. George.
Jeremy: Many times.
Jeremy: So you can do that, and that is kind of why I segued that. I thought how fun is this that Bryant Head, by the way, an hour and twenty up, typically I am an hour and twenty up and an hour and fifteen down. It is always just a little quicker coming down. That is pretty static. I am an 85 guy on the freeway, cruise control, and it is an hour and twenty minutes to that resort, and I am talking on a stormy day it is an hour twenty. It is just kind of an hour twenty to go up there. So check that out if you are looking for some fun this weekend, but welcome, Andy. Where do you live now, by the way?
Andy: I live in Washington City.
Jeremy: Washington City.
Andy: Yep, a new subdivision. Hobble Creek subdivision, and I have a beautiful home and really enjoy it. My only complaint is where our backyard backs up to 300 East there in Washington, so we are kind of looking to get something that is a little more secluded, a little off the busy road.
Jeremy: You know exactly what he is talking about.
Carl: I do.
Jeremy: Yeah. I know people who can help you. But –
Andy: I know you do.
Jeremy: — do that when you are ready to do that.
Jeremy: Carl Wright. Welcome aboard.
Carl: Thank you for having me.
Jeremy: Yeah, I am happy to have you. We are going to have, so this is fun. We are going to have Carl today, and then we are going to have Carl and his entire team at my office at noon. His team, our team. Carl is with R1 Appraisals here in town. By the way, I need to have you guys go measure a home in New Harmony. That is after show, but –
Jeremy: — just so you know.
Carl: Love to do it.
Jeremy: We are listing an incredible, oh my goodness, incredible home in New Harmony. We will be placing this home on the market hopefully in the next week, and amazing views. Almost 5,000 square feet. Pretty cool home. So it has an entire detached guest house –
Jeremy: — and when I went in it, it is like country home, like going into my home I grew up in with my mother. It is interesting, Carl, this is probably a great way to start this off, is they had the home on the market for six months with another agent, and they are very frustrated. Right? With an agent from Cedar City. So if you are in New Harmony, I want you to think through this. They listed the home with a guy from Cedar City because it was geographically closer by the mileage. But the issue is New Harmony is not in Iron County. It is in?
Jeremy: Bingo. So what they did is they hired somebody on the Iron County MLS to sell a home that is actually in Washington County. Now I am sure the home was on both Multiple Listing Services. And when we list your property and sell a property, we are always on Washington, Iron, and Wasatch MLS. We kind of go for the trifecta. But they were frustrated and then as we dug into this, it looked like everything was fine, and at a glance. So we do what is called a home marketing audit. And by the way, if you are selling a home right now, very quick plug, but it is not selling. That is the key is if your home is on the market and it is not selling and you are frustrated, I invite you to visit, this is kind of fun, we have a page that we have never talked about. It is called Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. Literally. Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. Go in there and plug in your critical information. This is not a solicitation of your listing. It is what called a home marketing audit. Maybe you are someone whose home just came off of the market, and it did not sell. Right? Let us know, and what we do is we just do an audit. And the audit is we look at three factors, which are marketing, condition, and pricing. And then, Carl, you know because you are a professional appraiser, that underneath those three, that canopy of three are probably another fifteen items. Right? So either marketing, the story that was told about your home was not compelling enough or it was not told to enough people. The condition, either the condition, the staging, or the location or all three were such that it was not compelling to a buyer. And or, and maybe all three factors were present, or the price of your home was such that either just buyers said sorry, there is something better for us at that price. Or maybe it was bracketed in a way that they did not, they did not see it. But we did this audit, and what do you think we found when we started looking through the square footage? The main floor was wrong. The basement was wrong. The upstairs was wrong. It was not reflective of a guest house. There is an entire detached guest house that is completely legal on the property that is about $150,000 to build that was not advertised.
Carl: Not presented. Yeah.
Jeremy: So it looked like everything was fine at a glance. I said, man, I do not know why this home has not sold. Then when we dug into it, so how often do you see data, Carl, as a professional appraiser that is just not accurate?
Carl: Oftentimes. Our job as an appraiser is to sift through all of the information that is out there and try to come up with a realistic value. We are looking at everything from marketing time. We are looking at the square footage. That is why we do not ever rely on what the county says or the, as far as square footage, bedroom, bathroom count. That is why we go in and we assess the property. We measure the property so we know what your square footage is. We will come up with your bedroom bathroom count. We look at your condition, the quality. We look at from your roof to your foundation and everything in between to determine how the market reacts to what components you have in your home, and then we come up with a value.
Jeremy: Okay, so this is kind of a fun question. Real estate agents, typically when they go to put a home on the market, they pull the square footage from where?
Carl: They usually use the county.
Jeremy: Correct. They just go to the tax records, and they go well, it says it is 4100 feet. How many appraisals have you done in your life, because you go out and you laser measure, you digitally measure where the square footage you actually measured in real life matched the county?
Carl: Hardly ever. It is usually —
Jeremy: Like 5%?
Carl: — maybe, I would say less than 5%. We are usually a little bit smaller –
Jeremy: Crazy, right?
Carl: — a little bit bigger than what the county says, which is, we use the outside measurements. You use ANSI standard of measurement, which means we measure from the outside corner to the outside corner. So we are usually a little bit bigger than what the county says, which is beneficial to people who are selling their home because then you get the actual square footage of what an appraiser is going to be using as their measurement, and then you can market your home at a slightly larger –
Carl: — so it behooves you a little bit to get an appraisal or have somebody come measure your home to determine what your actual square footage is.
Jeremy: Well, and Robert MacFarlane commented, good morning, Robert, it was missing almost 900 square feet.
Jeremy: And it was 6 months on the market.
Carl: That is –
Carl: Let’s just say $100 a foot, right? That is $90,000 that they misrepresented in that.
Jeremy: Yeah, so this is kind of crazy. We are doing something we have not done in a while. We are taking this property on that was listed by another agent, and they came to us after it was no longer on the market. We are raising the price.
Jeremy: And we do not do this very often, but we are actually going to, we believe that we can sell this home for more money than they were asking previously.
Carl: Wow. And that goes against the trend I am seeing right now, Jeremy.
Carl: As I have looked at the market and looked at trends, we look at, as appraisers, we look heavily at absorption rates and months of housing supply and things like that. Something very interesting that I am seeing right now is 2018, there was a perfect storm. There were, interest rates were good. It was like the jet was taking off the runway –
Jeremy: Oh yeah.
Carl: — and we built speed all the way until September about, and I was talking to my business partner, Nick –
Jeremy: This is exactly what I noticed.
Carl: — and this is exactly how Nick put it is that the jet took off in September and started to level off in September of 2018, and now we are gliding.
Carl: We are in a gliding mode right now, and we are in a transitional from being a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. We are seeing more months, more time on market. We are going from about a two-month inventory of homes to a three-and-a-half-month inventory of homes in the greater St. George area.
Jeremy: So let me throw a perspective in here. And when Carl talks about months of supply, right, or absorption rates, what he is saying is well, two months’ supply is really simple. It is how long, there was enough housing that if no one else listed a property, now I want, this is really important, if no one else put their home on the market, it would have taken two months to sell them all. Correct?
Jeremy: The simplest way to look at it?
Jeremy: Well now he is saying well now, we are at three-and-a-half. This is what throws people off. Three-and-a-half-months’ supply is still really strong market. It is a really strong market. But the issue is we are talking about the inventory going from two to three and a half. Right? Three and a half does not sound like a lot, but an increase from two months to three and a half months is a gigantic increase.
Carl: It is a big increase.
Jeremy: Make sense, you guys?
Jeremy: It is not like three and a half is a big supply. It is going from two to three and a half is a massive jump.
Carl: Yeah, and I found some more statistics. I was looking at the Washington Fields area, this is right where you live, Craig. In the Washington Fields area, I was looking at homes –
Jeremy: Or Andy.
Carl: Andy. Sorry.
Jeremy: Craig just walked out.
Carl: That is right. I am sorry, Andy. I apologize.
Andy: That is okay. No worries.
Jeremy: Craig is on his way back to Parowan to play in the snow.
Carl: Washington Fields, 2000 to 2500 square feet, the months of housing supply 12 months ago was 3.26. Right now, currently, there are 6.25 months of supply in Washington Fields between 2000 and 2500 square feet.
Jeremy: But I thought Washington Fields was one of the best markets in town?
Carl: It is one of the best markets in town, but that means everybody is trying to sell their home, and so if you are going to be competitive, if you have got your home listed right now, you really need to analyze do I really want to sell my home. If I really want to sell my home, then I probably should reduce the price by, I would say, by 5%.
Jeremy: Bingo, brother. What did I say to you on the phone when we chatted?
Jeremy: 5%. Let me share something with folks here. Carl, I have got the Multiple Listing Service pulled up. Since January 1st, have you looked at how many properties I have listed, by the way? Washington County. And of course, I should say Washington County. This includes Iron County because it is on our Multiple Listing Service. So bear with me for a second. I am going to come in here to location and I am going to say Washington County since the first of the year. Now remember, folks, when you go to sell your property, you are saying I have the best home. Hey, I looked around. I looked at every, Andy, I was over there off of 300 East in Washington, I looked around. I feel like I have the best house on the quarter mile. That is nice. Here is the issue. 724 properties hit the market in Washington County since January 1st.
Jeremy: 700 competitors. Right? Sounds about accurate?
Jeremy: That is what MLS is telling me.
Jeremy: And by the way, I am talking about homes. I am not even talking about lots. If I talked about lots and water shares, there is another how many you think? A couple hundred?
Carl: Couple hundred.
Jeremy: 724 properties hit the market in Washington County since January 1st. Right? That is 700 new competitors that came to the market. Andy, how long have you lived in that house?
Andy: Seven years.
Jeremy: So you have been there seven years. The reason I asked is that is what I thought you said. A lot of our listeners have been in their property 5-7 years, 7-10 years, because a lot of people moved into the market. Right, Carl? Like ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08. Some of them ’10. But here is what is interesting. Values have come up since seven years ago in Washington County, Carl, what percentage you think?
Carl: I think we are right around 40%, 36%.
Jeremy: Since then. Close to 40%. So while Carl is telling us a story that is accurate and he is telling the truth, inventory is almost doubling. It doubled in Washington Fields. Right? We went from three to six months. At the same time, if I had told you seven years ago that your home value would go up 40%, the home values would go up 40%, how many homes would you have bought?
Jeremy: Every one of them, right?
Carl: (Indiscernible) Right.
Jeremy: You would have bought all the $5 bills for $3 that you could have purchased. Okay?
Jeremy: Right? Which is the math.
Andy: Makes sense.
Jeremy: We are saying hey, I have got a sale on $5 bills. They are on sale for $3. How many do you want? I want them all.
Jeremy: But we did not know that. Did we?
Jeremy: So talk to me about a trend here because seven years, I would love, I love that you are in studio at seven years. What seems to kind of happen every 6-8 years, Carl?
Carl: Usually, it trends up for seven years and then it trends down. And you look at –
Jeremy: It is biblical, by the way. Seven years of famine. Seven years of planting.
Carl: Right. If you look at the trends, we crashed in the third quarter of 2007. That is when the trend started to go downward here in Washington County. And it went down until 2011. In 2012, we started the trend upward, and how it went, what is the math? Seven years. 2012 is when we started to trend upward. Now, I am not saying there is going to be a big crash. I do not think there is going to be a crash, but we are going to be gliding through 2019.
Jeremy: How many appraisals have you done? You and your company?
Carl: Our company, since we have opened up in 2008, we almost 21,000 here in Washington County.
Jeremy: We have two minutes. Two and a half minutes. I want that to settle in for people. I have got Carl on the show today. 21,000 appraisals. You might want to listen. Right? You might want to listen. Here is what is so fun for me. Everything you are saying is echoing what I have been saying, which clearly makes me feel pretty happy this morning. So 5% across the board. We feel like values are probably 5% overcooked. We have seen inventory in Washington Fields double. Where else? Where else is inventory going up? Everywhere.
Carl: Everywhere. Everywhere, but not to be alarmed. I do not want this to be people that panic and think that there is, that I need to make a huge, a 5% price reduction is not a very big price reduction.
Jeremy: If I am a seller, what do I do today because I want to sell and take advantage of a great market?
Carl: You want to reduce it 5%. It is like chasing that ball down the –
Jeremy: We talked about this.
Carl: We talked about this. You do not, you just want to get ahead of the ball. It is going to calm down. Usually, our market is spurred by the Parade of Homes which is coming up next weekend. A lot of buyers come in. So we are going to see some more buying right in the next near future.
Jeremy: 60 days.
Carl: 60 days. And so, I suspect that jet is just going to coast through 2019. I do not see a big fall. I do not see a big rise. I see it stable for the next year.
Jeremy: What if somebody says I really do not trust my agent? I want to call you and get a third-party appraisal. What is it going to cost them and how do they call you?
Carl: We have got a variety of products that we offer people from $200 to $400 for a full appraisal for a typical home. If your home is a little bit bigger, we charge a little bit more, but that will give you a full valuation of letting us come in, and like you said, give you a diagnostic of why your house is not selling.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way guys, we talked about this fun website. I almost forgot for a while that we had even created it. We created it years ago. When the market was crashing, we created this page called Why My Home Won’t Sell dot com. And when you go there, it is just a home marketing audit. And all you do is plug in your information, and then what we do is not a solicitation of a listing. I want to be very clear about that. We simply look at three categories: price, condition, and marketing. And we diagnose it. Right? We do an audit. I know no one likes an audit. But guess what? Would you, again, Carl, if I told you seven years ago that your value had come up, and Andy and everyone in this room, 40%, you would have said are you serious? But people want their value to have come up 45% and now they are frustrated. Are people going to miss out on this market because they are clinging onto last summer?
Carl: Yes, they will.
Jeremy: It is going to happen.
Carl: You have got to look forward.
Jeremy: How do they call you, Carl?
Carl: Our phone number is 435-627-0019. You can talk to anyone of our appraisers, me, Nick Lyman, Evan Wilkins, Jerry Johnson, Kenny Rawlings. We have got a whole crew over there that can help you.
Jeremy: Yep, R1. Literally, R the letter, 1 the number. You can Google it. Thank you, Carl.
Carl: Thank you for having me, Jeremy. Appreciate it. It is always a pleasure.
Andy: Jeremy Larkin with St. George Real Estate here on News Radio 94.9, 890, KDXU. Thanks, Jeremy.
$1 Home Sale Program and GLUT of Homes Hitting The New Year’s Market (St. George Real Estate Morning Drive Show)
Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing firstname.lastname@example.org.
Jeremy: Happy New Year. By the way, that was one of my favorite elements of the new year is we were at the grocery store last night at the Winn’s down there in the Washington Fields, and people are so fun. The produce guy was really cool. Theywere having a debate about sauerkraut by the way. I was a cilantro fan –
Jesse: What is there to debate about sauerkraut?
Jeremy: Well, I do not like it.
Jesse: Oh, okay. So that is in debate?
Jeremy: Yeah, it was a debate. Yeah, it was a debate. And then the produce guy started kind of pitching the sauerkraut. He was a great guy. And then as we walked away, he said Happy New year. I love that about the holidays. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. It is fun.
Jesse: I would like to see it if people could keep that attitude or thought all year round. Why not be happy every day?
Jeremy: Yes, thank you.
Jesse: Well, I have been accused of that.
Jeremy: You do get accused of it, and you resemble the comment, and I will tell you that it is very similar to the whole 9/11. Remember when 9/11 happened –
Jeremy: Suddenly everyone in the country was fearful believer in God and very patriotic. That lasted about twelve months. But good morning to everyone out there. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. I have got multiple co-hosts in here. I have got Jesse Poll from the Larkin Group. Mike McGarry is here.
Jesse: I told Mike this morning we are happy he is back.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is nice to have him here.
Jesse: We do not like it when he is gone.
Mike: I will hang around for a little while.
Jeremy: Yeah, he has just has this thing dialed in. Yeah, I know. He is going to hang around about 30 days.
Mike: Pretty close to that, yeah.
Jeremy: Good morning, David. Love it man. Love it. 343 never forget. Absolutely right, David. Isn’t amazing, by the way, Dave, and Dave is a fireman, and one of my childhood friends. Literally, our families go way back. But this is not a political show. But it was crazy how patriotic and God-fearing we were for about twelve months and –
Jesse: And really how –
Jeremy: Then we were just like ah, we are busy now.
Jesse: And really how the country really came together.
Jeremy: The country came together. I will tell you. Crisis a very, very interesting gift and teacher for us. Is it not, Jesse?
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: I want to share some New Year’s Resolutions. We ran a little Facebook thing where we said are you believer in New Year’s resolutions. I am going to share my theme for 2018. I think our listeners want to know what my theme is. Don’t you? Does anyone know, please say you do, The Christmas Story? I have it almost memorized, the movie The Christmas Story.
Jesse: We actually did not watch that this year.
Jeremy: It was on TBS and TNT for 24 hours straight. You do not even have to have the DVD, but I do have the DVD. So on the Larkin Group Facebook page, by the way, we will announce our winner this morning.
Jesse: Right on.
Jeremy: Somebody won $50 cash. The $50 cash is sitting –
Jeremy: — on my desk.
Jesse: I saw that sitting on your desk.
Jeremy: Yeah, sitting on my desk.
Jesse: I thought it was for me. A gift.
Jeremy: Sorry, dude. Sorry. Sorry. Sitting on my desk. $50 cash. So I asked the question New Year’s resolutions or no? Chime in. Chime in. And I thought that this was very fun. We will talk about real estate. We are going to talk about selling a home for $1, and what happens every, $1. This is like, you know what you can get for a buck? You can get a drink at McDonald’s.
Jesse: Can you really still?
Jeremy: Oh, all the drinks are 99 cents. You can get some chicken nuggets. You can get a little French fry, a small shake, a parfait. Okay?
Jeremy: I do not even think you can purchase a pack of gum almost anywhere for 99 cents.
Jesse: I do not think so.
Jeremy: We will talk about that.
Jesse: Very few things can you buy for a dollar.
Jeremy: Yeah, for a buck. We are going to talk about $1 home sale program because we decided to have some fun in January. It is just for fun. But people, this is so interesting to hear what people said. Mark said yes. Natasha said yes, but not so much traditional New Year’s goals. More like intending to improve myself. I have chosen a word for the year. That is mine for the year. Mine is build. Relationships. Build our business. Build each other up. Beautiful. One of our past clients.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: McKennon, did you know your daughter chimed in?
Jeremy: Yes, absolutely. We never know where we are going, but we always know where we have been, and we need new goals to set new heights to see how far we can get. It is all for naught. Is life even worth living? Right? I said kind of. What I do not like is the resolution because it is usually like a two-week campaign. I like more what she is saying which is we are looking, that idea of build. I love having a word for the year, and I have a theme, which I will share. But for me it is more like the new year is such a gift for new beginnings, and to kind of rethink and say where I have been. We know where we have been, she said. Andrew Young, absolutely yes. Cassie Segmiller, yes. Brett and Natalie Johnson, yes, and on and on. But let’s go ahead and let’s give congratulations to Cassie Segmiller who won the drawing for fifty bucks.
Jeremy: Yeah. We will respond on Facebook to her today. So here goes, Jess. I do not know how you say it. He is one of the famous, what do you call him, he is Tao. He is a Taoist. He is a Taoist. T-A-O. It is one of my favorite quotes. Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny. So that is my theme for the year. Rather than a word, it is this idea of monitoring how my thoughts become my words and actions and habits and character and destiny and how much we mess ourselves up.
Jesse: Without even knowing it.
Jeremy: Oh, we do not even know it.
Jesse: This stuff happens so gradually that one day we wake up and realize that somewhere over the last 20 years I have become somebody I do not really want to be.
Jeremy: Yep, yep. So yeah, like the boiling pot of water. So hey, happy January. We are waxing a little philosophical, but guess what? It is our show. We will talk about whatever we want to talk about. Right, Jesse?
Jesse: It is your show. I will just follow along.
Jeremy: It is my show. Good morning. So gang, you need to understand that we actually are now broadcasting. There are, I wish I had my other phone. I would take a picture.
Jesse: Yeah, where is your other piece of technology. You do not have enough here.
Jeremy: I have another phone in my car. There are two phones on the countertop right here in two different tripods. One is broadcasting Facebook Live, and one is broadcasting YouTube Live.
Jeremy: So if anyone ever wanted to know where you could watch this on YouTube Live, I should have put that in the comments. It is YouTube dot com, of course, but it is Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV. We have got about 1300 subscribers there or something, and we have done very little live. So if you want to be on YouTube Live and that is your preference, see our YouTube channel Go St. George TV. G-O-S-T George TV or hang out on Facebook Live, and of course, all of our radio listeners, you are already on with us at 94.9FM, 890AM. Jesse, it is January 3rd, and there is a phenomenon that happens, especially in St. George because the Parade of Homes is six weeks from now.
Jesse: It is coming right up.
Jeremy: What is happening? You brought some data this morning.
Jesse: The data –
Jeremy: Every January.
Jesse – that I brought this morning is peanuts compared to what is coming.
Jeremy: Can I show them?
Jeremy: Anyone who is looking. This is his data. Three days.
Jesse: During the last –
Jeremy: I hope everyone is looking at this.
Jesse: Hey, every genius scribbles.
Jeremy: It is a 4×7 –
Jesse: Ask Einstein.
Jeremy: — scratch paper. I like it.
Jesse: In the last three days you have had 36 homes hit the market.
Jeremy: Last four days or two days? It is really two days.
Jesse: Two days. Yeah. So since the first. The first and second.
Jeremy: But there was not a first. See, the first did not exist. You could not put a home on the market.
Jesse: That is true. Because everyone was off.
Jeremy: That means in the last 24 hours 36 homes hit the market.
Jeremy: I did not mean to correct you, but –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — if you think about this –
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: — one day 36 homes hit the market. Holy cow. Okay?
Jesse: And what is coming over the next two months will be probably 1100 homes. I am pretty sure last year it was about 1100 homes between January and February.
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: But before the Parade of Homes, and by March, that number will be 1500.
Jesse: Every year.
Jesse: And it is just gearing up for our spring season. Especially the Parade of Homes.
Jeremy: I am just looking at some of this data myself. Wow.
Jesse: One thing that is interesting. We have been talking about this is the price reductions. I went and pulled those. There have been 29 reduced prices in the last two days.
Jeremy: Twenty-four hours.
Jesse: Well, this is from the 31st because some of us did work Monday.
Jeremy: Define a price reduction for the listeners.
Jesse: That is somebody that is on the market currently, and they have reduced their price because they realized they were too high.
Jeremy: Yeah. Because look if the market is not supporting what you are buying, what you are selling –
Jesse: What you are selling then you have got –
Jeremy: Yeah, it is very simple. There is Dillard’s had their big annual sale. Oh man, I wanted to go. I am such a shopper. Every January 1st, New Year’s Day, a lot of retailers are closed. They put all of their clearance on 50% of the clearance price, and the place is like a zoo. Right? Well, why? Because the product has not sold –
Jeremy: — and new product is coming into the store, and the challenge you have as a homeowner is that new product is coming in the store –
Jeremy: — and it is called other people selling their house. Right? So this has happened for how many Januarys in a row?
Jeremy: All of them?
Jesse: Yeah, probably since the Parade of Homes started.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah.
Jesse: Because that is really what drives January and February is the Parade of Homes. So how long ago did that start? 20-25 years ago?
Jeremy: Yeah, and I want to be clear about this. He said it drives it. It drives people’s psychology. It does not actually drive sales in St. George.
Jesse: It does not drive the market, but it drives them wanting to be on the market by then.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah, this is absolutely true, and it will be interesting to see because we had, for instance, one luxury real estate firm here in town put five homes on the market yesterday. Cancelled the listings in the fall, late fall, and they put them back on yesterday because the belief of every seller, and by the way, if you want to see a video of me talking about that from the chair lift at Bryant Head yesterday.
Jesse: Oh, a new one?
Jeremy: Yeah, you can check it out. A rash of luxury homes hitting the market after January 1. What does this mean? Published 18 hours ago. So I shot a video yesterday at Bryant Head. I was with my kids because the kids all went back to school this morning. Second greatest day of the year, by the way. First greatest day is when they go to school in August.
Jeremy: And it was interrupted by a phone call, which was fun. The live video. But you might want to check that out. It is right on the Larkin Group Facebook stream. Just look up the Larkin Group and you will find us. But I said what does this mean? Well it means that people believe –
Jesse: That they will sell their home during the Parade.
Jesse: They believe that more high-end, first of all, high-end buyers come for the Parade. And that might be true. But are they really buying homes?
Jesse: But people really believe that not only can they get a buyer at that time of year, they can get a buyer that will pay extraordinary prices.
Jeremy: Yeah. Oh yeah. Right. Let me share something cool with you folks. If you hop on our Facebook stream, we have, so we have been on this show for almost six years.
Jeremy: Five plus years we have been on the radio.
Jesse: Has it been that long?
Jeremy: It has been a long time, and we have been delivering content via the show, via Facebook, we have a really great video blog, and a lot of our listeners have received those video emails. I am looking at our Facebook stream. This is just the last few days. Excited about buying a home this year? Here is what to watch. These are articles that we have produced.
Jeremy: Let me share a few more. Selling For Sale By Owner. Questions and comments and concerns. Where is the market headed in 2019? Where is it headed? How to save thousands of dollars in interest on your mortgage. What makes a house a home for you and more and more. We have produced so much content for so long. And by the way, where is the market headed in 2019? A couple of things that we will give you, and then we are going to tell you about something really fun that we are doing. And folks, if you enjoy our program, we are going to ask you for your help today. For the amount of content that we put out compared to the ratio of that to asking for help is pretty low, pretty high to content and low asking for help. Where is the market headed in 2019? This is a really great infographic that we have on our Facebook stream, and again, look up the Larkin Group or Facebook dot com slash The Larkin Group. So what do they predict? They predict that home prices will appreciate across the country 4.8%. Historic home appreciation is 3.6, averaging all the years together.
Jesse: Averaging –
Jeremy: Every year.
Jeremy: 4.8%. St. George? Jesse says yes. I say no.
Jesse: Yeah, we have a debate there. It is going to interesting next January when we pull, when we come out to really see what happened this year.
Jeremy: Yeah, I say no. I say that we are not going to have any appreciation in Washington County. I think we are going to be exactly static. Interest rates have risen, but they are currently at the lowest point that they have been in six months.
Jesse: Yep, they just went down again.
Jeremy: Yeah, guys, the lowest point in six months. Interest rates right now. Interest rates, amazing, so home prices, Core Logic, which is like the biggest national prediction type firm saying 4.8% appreciation. All four major reporting agencies believe that total home sales will out pace 2018. That is interesting. And interest rates are projected to rise. Are projected to rise. However, let us remind you that in the year 2000, interest rates were 6.2%. In 1990, they were 8.1%. In 1980, they were 12.7%, and in 1970, 8.86. We are so far below everything. Now, I produced a video that has not been released yet, and it is about seven and a half minutes. It is four things you have to know about St. George Real Estate moving into 2019. It is upcoming, forthcoming. It will be on our YouTube channel and on our Facebook page in the next week. So, Jesse, the homes that hit the market this morning. Price ranges?
Jesse: Well, you have got six of them under 250, and that is going to be a problem for your average worker here in St. George.
Jeremy: So only 6, 36 homes hit the market, and only 6 of them –
Jesse: Were under 250.
Jeremy: — were under $250,000.
Jesse: Which is where your average worker can afford a home.
Jesse: You have got six between 250 and 300. That is a pretty good number. That is pretty solid.
Jesse: You have got seven between $300,000 and $400,000, six between four and five, and then 11 over 500,000.
Jeremy: Holy smoke. Eleven –
Jeremy: — of the 36. So our greatest, over $500,000.
Jesse: Actually, let’s break that down. You have got 3 between 5 and 6, and then 8 over 600.
Jeremy: So I need to say, folks, that is going to be a problem. Just so you know. It is going to be a problem for the average, like you say, the average worker.
Jesse: Yeah, because your average household –
Jeremy: I actually like the word worker. It is like the average, typical, employed human being.
Jesse: Right because your average household income in Washington County is 50,000.
Jesse: So somebody making $50,000 a year, how much house can they afford?
Jesse: Right, so that is –
Jeremy: Maybe 250. If they have a good down payment, 250. So that will be a challenge, and I am here to explain to our luxury homeowners in Washington County, it is going to be tougher than you think it is, and you had better take the job of selling your home very serious. And if you are thinking oh well, this sounds negative, maybe it is not the year. No, remember values are at their highest point in ten years.
Jeremy: We are at the top. You know the waves out in the ocean if you have been on the ocean. They grow up and they go down. Kind of like when you swim out from the shore 50 yards, and you are floating out there with your friends.
Jesse: Especially –
Jeremy: We are at the top.
Jesse: Yeah, especially up in the higher price points because if you, once you step over $600,000, the amount of inventory just increases astronomically. It goes from 4 to 5 to 18 months.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are at the peak, so you had better take that very serious and work with an agent who is very serious about telling you the, it is funny, there is a script that we use in real estate. We are trained to use it. Hey, Jesse, on a scale of 1 to 10, how honest can I be with you? Well, what do people always say?
Jesse: They say ten until you do it.
Jeremy: There is a reason we are trained to ask this.
Jeremy: Because we have to set up the homeowner to actually hear the truth. Hey Jesse, do these pants make me look fat? You are like the fact that you asked me that means that you already knew the answer. Right? The seller, does your price make you look fat and greedy? Kind of. It sounds so terrible, but here is why this is so important. Because if you are thinking well, isn’t it marketing that is going to sell my home? Oh, it is marketing with the right price, and if you are not priced correctly, you will not sell your luxury home in 2019. It is not happening.
Jeremy: You will spend the next year of your life, you hear the passion, folks. I emphatically, you will not sell your home if you are not very competitive in that luxury home market. There is so much inventory. We are talking about years, and the market is at its peak.
Jesse: I cannot tell you –
Jeremy: Good grief.
Jesse: — how many homes in the luxury market that we have seen that have been on the market for a year or two off and on.
Jeremy: But we have seen homes that have been on 500 or 1000 days.
Jesse: What is interesting is that even the worst market, luxury homes sold within four months. Very rarely does it take a year to sell a home.
Jeremy: You are right. You are absolutely right. This is just a completely different market than say downtown St. George. All right. We are doing something fun.
Jesse: All right. Let’s do this.
Jeremy: McDonald’s Dollar Value Menu. The Larkin Group Dollar Menu. The Dollar Menu. Okay.
Jesse: We have a Dollar Menu now.
Jeremy: So here is what you have to do. Yeah, we do. And the dollar menu is just like this. We have got a program that we are running for January only. So I was sitting there over the holidays thinking why are we not having more fun? Seriously. We are dealing with people who are stressed out.
Jesse: Yeah, they are.
Jeremy: Think of some of the transactions we are dealing with right now. Folks, a domino succession, chain, they can only, we have a client. Incredible people who, think about this, the spouse is going to pass away in the very near future because of some serious health elements. The other spouse cannot physically afford to live, will be homeless or bankrupt if they do not sell the home now because the retirement and Social Security will go away when the husband passes away.
Jeremy: They have to sell the home. They cannot live somewhere if they do not sell the home first, but if they do not sell the home, she is going to be homeless. And by the way, prices are high in St. George, so now they are trying to figure out what she can possibly afford at her new income. Do you see this? And, of course, then you are depending on the buyer if their home, it is crazy. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, it is kind of emotional.
Jeremy: So then you have another seller on the other end who is hoping these people close on their sale so they can make the purchase of their home. It is very complicated. So I said why aren’t we having more fun? So we are going to have more fun. You can sell your home for as little as one buck. Now you do not need to sell it in January. You just need to enroll in the program in January. $1. I do not have time to get into all the details, but I will give you the one detail. The absolute specific criteria is you have to buy another home through us. And by the way, do you know that when you buy a home, you do not pay a commission? Because remember the seller pays the commission.
Jeremy: There are other terms and conditions. You have to be born in 1957. You have to have an odd number ending your Social Security number, and you have to have sandy blonde hair. I am kidding. You know those crazy, it is actually not that crazy. The terms and conditions are not crazy at all. But you do need to buy another home through us because we are literally going to charge on the listing side a dollar if you buy another home through us. Meaning no income for us on the listing side. Okay? Here is an alternate. If you are not buying home through us, we said okay, then what can we do? Because we want everybody to win.
Jeremy: If you are not buying another home through us because meaning you are going to rent a home or you are moving out of town, you still can save up to $10,000 selling your home. And you will save no less than $1250. Right?
Jesse: Yep, $1250.
Jeremy: One thousand two hundred and fifty dollars at the lowest price point. It is based on price point. Most of our clients are going to save $2,500 selling a home. That is the most typical segment will be at $2,500.
Jeremy: There is no gimmick. There is no qualification. If you sign a listing agreement with the Larkin Group in January, you will be getting that discount or you can be in the dollar program. And by the way, both apply. So the dollar programs applies if you are trying to buy another home. You can work through both. Now, here is the deal. We made a goal. We sat down as a team several days and said what do we want to do? And last year we helped about 180 clients buy and sell real estate. We decided we were going to procure 90 families in 90 days, in the first 90 days of 2019. We decided that for our families, now again, folks, earlier I said we have given you this content for years and years and years, and we are asking for your help. We are asking today for you to be mindful of the Larkin Group as, 90 in 90 is almost unheard of. Okay?
Jesse: Very few people –
Jeremy: Very few people have pulled this off. We want to find 90 great clients like yourself that need our services. It is a win-win situation. We are doing the dollar home sale program or the save up to $10,000. If you or someone you know has thought about selling, we are asking will you send them to us?
Jesse: Have them give us a call.
Jeremy: Will you let us talk to them? You do not have to commit them to anything. There is no obligation to talk to us, but you can reach us on Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts or at Sold in St. George dot com. It is going to be fun to report what happens when we get to the end of these 90 days to see what we do. We are going to have a good time this year.
Jesse: It is going to be fun.
Jeremy: It is going to be a great year in St. George real estate. Hope you guys can help us, and we will guarantee we will help you. Thank you.
Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable!
Jeremy: Good morning. How are we doing, folks? I am here. I am alive. I have got a dead laptop. I am not sure why it is dead. But guess what? Does that ever happen?
Mike: All the time.
Jeremy: So batteries actually die on these things –
Chantry: Only when you need it though. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah, I know. It is okay. We will plug it in and we will be good to go. I have got Chantry Abbot this morning with Guild Mortgage. Chantry, good morning.
Chantry: Good morning.
Jeremy: Give me something good. What is the greatest thing that is happening in your life right now?
Chantry: Oh man, the greatest thing that is happening in my life. I just went to, my son’s doing, he is four –
Jeremy: Got it.
Chantry: — and so yesterday, I snuck out of work a little early and well, at about lunch time. Snuck out for a little break, and he is in a gymnastics class.
Jeremy: Oh man.
Chantry: And he totally digs it. Somersaults and all that.
Jeremy: I have got a 17-year-old who always referred to her gymnastics when she was that age as nastics.
Jeremy: Something like that. It is pretty fun.
Chantry: I have been telling him that the Ninja Turtles do gymnastics, so he is really into the Ninja Turtles.
Mike: He is sold.
Chantry: Yeah, he is in that really learn his stuff.
Jeremy: That is amazing. I love this. Well, so that is your great thing this morning. Isn’t that great? You know what? Let me tell you what is going on great in my life, by the way, folks, is I hauled two kids off to school this morning, and I think they were both just about late. We are talking about scratching the, oooo, the very edge. One went over to Tonaquint Intermediate and another to Dixie Middle, and once upon a time they were four. They were four years old. And there you have it. We got up. So but those guys, these two dudes and I actually, all four of the kids, we went up to Bryant Head this last weekend –
Chantry: I was actually going to say they are probably bummed they were not going skiing today.
Jeremy: Yeah, they probably were. They probably were. Bryant Head missed the snow on this storm, but we were there this last weekend, and if anybody out there is thinking about getting up to the mountain, it is actually looking really, really good for this time of year. I am shocked. Salt Lake had 14 inches or something overnight. I saw that. But it is pretty good for December, I do not know what the day was, tenth.
Chantry: When do Washington County Schools get out for the Christmas Break?
Jeremy: So the kids will get out the Friday before Christmas which seems like it is the 21st or second.
Chantry: So that would be a week from tomorrow?
Jeremy: Yeah, the 21st. So a week from tomorrow. These kids are seven days left, and then they will have ten days off. Look, it is the most wonderful time of the year. The fun thing with Christmas break is that you are actually excited. For all you parents out there, I think you know what I am talking about. It is actually exciting. It is fun to have the kids home, and a lot of parents are off of work at least part of that time. A little easier than summer. Summer you are thinking, we have got a whole two months of this stuff, don’t we? Now what am I supposed to do with these kids?
Jeremy: And if you are working mom or a working dad –
Chantry: Yeah, how do I deal with that?
Jeremy: That gets really busy. Really, really busy. Here we are. We are all on our own plane with our kids and Mike has got his kids grown. Mine are kind of in between and you have little, a little child. And that is where we are at. So Chantry and I are going to be talking about, this is exciting, okay. It is funny that bad news is often exciting. It is just so bizarre what is happening in some of these real estate markets. Right?
Chantry: Right. It is going to come as a surprise to most probably. Right?
Jeremy: Yeah, absolutely. So we are going to talk a little bit about what is going on in Dallas, Texas. Frisco, Texas. By the way, Frisco, Texas, outside of St. George, fastest growing community in the United States of America. And just crazy. There is a Toyota plant there and jobs. We are going to talk about what is happening with the real estate market. And the teaser for our listeners out there: builders making hundred thousand and bigger dollar price reductions on their listings, offering real estate agents trips and travel all over the planet to sell their homes. Some strange stuff going on out there.
Chantry: Yeah, the trip to Mexico caught my eye.
Jeremy: Oh, is that what got you excited? Did you want to move out there?
Chantry: No, I will just take a trip there. That is all.
Jeremy: Actually I was just saying to Texas so you can start –
Chantry: I could sell some houses out there.
Jeremy: So we are going to talk about what is going on with the real estate market and really the US housing boom coming to an end and what that means, and whether you should be alarmed, and whether St. George is next. November was a very strange month for everyone in the real estate market, both in sales, real estate sales and in lending, that is what Chantry does. He is with a company, Guild Mortgage, and they have worked with us for so long, at least coming up on a decade and do such amazing work. Of course, what they do is help people find the money they need to purchase a home. And they have worked with, I do not know, certainly dozens and probably more like hundreds of our clients over the years. Right?
Chantry: Yeah, hundreds. Yeah.
Jeremy: Hundreds of clients.
Jeremy: And you have been doing mortgage lending, I like to tell people home lending in a way because sometimes people out there in the public are like well, I do not. Do you know what I mean?
Jeremy: But mortgages or loans for people purchasing homes for how many years?
Chantry: It will be 13 when the calendar turns.
Chantry: Crazy. It was 2006.
Jeremy: This is wild. So let’s do some history. So thirteen, 2006, 2008 is when they really say the bubble burst.
Jeremy: So we are decade. We are having a ten-year anniversary, and we talked a little bit about this on our show last week. So you read these articles –
Chantry: That I did.
Jeremy: — that I am talking about? Should I give folks the highlights? Let me give you the headline for this article. It is Bloomberg, and we will post this into the Facebook comments. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, you can catch us at Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. The way it sounds, J-E-R-E-M-Y, Larkin, L-A-R-K-I-N. Facebook dot com slash Jeremy Larkin. We are streaming it live. We stream it live every week and then we post this over to the Larkin Group Facebook page. Of course, if you are listening to us on the radio, you are either on 890AM or 94.9FM. So our Facebook listeners, if you want to get on the radio, you can hop to 94.9FM, 890AM.
Chantry: If anybody wants to, I have got my phone. I am going to see if there are any comments. I just barely thought of it.
Jeremy: Oh beautiful, beautiful.
Chantry: So if anybody wants to comment on Facebook, we will answer the question.
Jeremy: Yeah, I love this. Yeah, if you guys have questions, specific questions for Chantry who is doing lending, specific questions for me. So let me give you the headline: Free vacations, $100,000 discounts, home builders get desperate with hot markets cooling and mortgage rising the industry turns to incentives to boost sales. And of course, Bloomberg paints this in such a dramatic fashion, do they not? A real estate broker in suburban Dallas is raking in freebies this year. Trips to Lake Tahoe and Santa Barbara in California, Cabo San Lucas in Mexico, and a dude ranch in Wyoming. The home buyers he represents are cashing in, too. They are winning price cuts of more than $100,000 on top of free upgrades such as media rooms, cabinets, and blinds. This feels a lot like, when you hear this, some stuff we saw here a long time ago.
Chantry: Sure, yeah.
Jeremy: Doesn’t it? It goes on to say the generosity flows from an increasingly desperate home builder market. Hot markets are cooling as fast as interest rises, and this is where they really throw the drama on here. Some flare. In the great housing slowdown of ’18, it is like they have added, they have created their own term, shoppers are reclaiming the upper hand after years of soaring prices that placed most inventory out of reach of many families. Everyone is hungry for buyers, he says. What do you think, man? When you see that, what are your thoughts?
Chantry: So sure, has the market shifted a little bit? Absolutely. Is that an extreme version of it? Yeah, of course it is.
Jeremy: For sure.
Chantry: But anybody that follows the housing market, it is kind of interesting. It has been very similar to the stock market. So those of you that follow the stock market have noticed some things have changed over the last couple of months, quite significantly. And we have noticed that in the real estate market. But it had to. It was out of control. This summer, all of us were looking at each other going there are no homes for sale.
Jeremy: It was weird. It was ridiculous.
Chantry: Buyers have no, buyers have no control. And it was not just prices that were that were crazy. It was terms. It was like they could not ask for anything. They had to close really fast.
Chantry: They had to make offers sight unseen. Just weird stuff that just is not really good for a buyer.
Jeremy: No, it is not good for a buyer at all. And one of the challenges we have in real estate is anytime that the market turns to where one group has the serious upper hand, either a seller’s market or a buyer’s market, it is going to create weird dynamics.
Chantry: Not good. Yeah.
Jeremy: And this is not good either. What we are hearing about in Texas. Definitely, when Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal and, and, and start running articles saying that the housing market is coming to a massive halt in Dallas, it scares people.
Chantry: Yeah. Especially what happened ten years ago. We all think oh, can that happen again.
Jeremy: Excuse me, yeah, there is just no question. And we do sit here wondering what will happen? Like coming up here, it is interesting. It says, let’s talk about some things that are issues that slow the housing market down, and we will answer the question whether St. George is next. Rising interest rates –
Jeremy: — and we are going to ask you specifically about that. Trump did a tax overhaul that caps the, places caps on tax deductions for mortgage interest. That is an issue. Right?
Jeremy: They are hurting really like high tax areas. New York, massive high taxes that really hurts those people. 4,000 new condo units listed for sale, will be listed for sale in 2019 in Manhattan they said.
Jeremy: In Manhattan.
Jeremy: Not in New York City. Right?
Jeremy: 4,000 new condo units. You have got, okay, they talked about Austin and San Jose, California. Austin, Texas. San Jose, California. They have put, like immigration restrictions have kind of slowed down high-skilled workers coming into those markets. Some of these places are now less appealing to your Chinese buyers and your foreigners. We do not see as much of that here.
Jeremy: How often have you ever seen a foreign buyer try to get a mortgage?
Chantry: It is really rare. Occasionally we will get the Canadians because they love the warm weather here.
Chantry: Really honestly, some of them, it is the first warm place south.
Chantry: So if you are heading south –
Jeremy: It is.
Chantry: — on I-15, boom, first warm place, really nice, great spot.
Jeremy: That is a great point.
Chantry: So we get a little bit of that. But it does not drive our market by any means.
Jeremy: No, not at all.
Chantry: But to your point, with the rising interest rates and home prices as we know just continued to go up and up and up, it is all about affordability.
Jeremy: It is.
Chantry: It really ends up being to a point where if prices get too high, rates go up, it is just not affordable anymore. So there has to be some sort of a shift back to normal.
Jeremy: There absolutely does. So what you are saying is, from your perspective, this housing, the great housing slow down of 2018 is not a problem.
Chantry: Yeah, let’s understand one big difference.
Jeremy: Yeah, let’s do.
Chantry: In 2006, do you remember the loan that they called the Stated Income/Stated Asset?
Jeremy: Oh, for sure, I do.
Chantry: Okay, so what this was was you are sitting across the desk from a mortgage guy and they say well, you need to make $10,000 a month, Mr. Schoolteacher. You make $10,000 –
Jeremy: So what would he do?
Chantry: — a month, correct? Wink, wink. And then all of a sudden, the deal is closed. You did not have to document anything. It was insane. There was no common sense, greed, crazy, stupid, whatever you want to call it. Loans were getting done to people that just should never have gotten the loans. Period. End of story. And so, it made everything go out of control, and these people were doing it knowing that they could not afford the house payment. They just thought –
Chantry: They just thought if I do this, I can hang on for a year and then I will sell it and make all this money because my neighbor did that.
Jeremy: right. Right.
Chantry: And so let’s do that. I know I cannot afford a $2500 house payment. My neighbor just did it, and we can sell it in a year, and we can do it for a year. Pull it out of our retirement. That is what was going on. See people were getting these loans they could never afford. Ever.
Jeremy: Not a chance.
Chantry: They never even thought –
Jeremy: Not a chance.
Chantry: The people did not think they could afford them. So now the total difference is loans are tough. Loans are, it is hard to get a loan. People that get a loan, by the end of it, they are tired of all these rules and giving us pay stub after pay stub and bank statement after bank statement and all this stuff we have to dig into, and absolutely the whole point of it is to make sure the mortgage industry feels like this person can actually afford this house payment.
Jeremy: Well, right. You need to make $10,000. You know it is funny you ask that because I happen to be making $10,000.
Chantry: Oh, that is weird timing, right?
Jeremy: Actually, it is 12,000. Well it is funny you would say that because I just got a text from my boss. My income was raised.
Chantry: Yeah, exactly. Right.
Jeremy: It is like this is incredible. Right? It is amazing how everybody seemed to have the qualifications during that time to do this. Right?
Chantry: You did not have to get anything. It was just whatever you said, get a loan.
Jeremy: Well, okay, so the big difference now, that Chantry is saying, we have got Chantry Abbott here with Guild Mortgage here in St. George, we are talking about the great housing slow down. I love this term. I think I am going to run with it. That Bloomberg News has put out of 2018 and we shared, if you just picked up the show, the fact that, and good morning to everybody on Facebook, and good morning to all of our listeners. Thank you so much for your support. Talking about the fact that in some of these housing markets it is slowing down. So we saw massive, they are giving away vacations and crazy incentives and free media rooms and free upgrades and free cabinetry. And they are giving away, they are reducing prices a hundred to two thousand dollars on these expensive homes by the way. Just to be clear, Chantry, I think people need to understand this. They are reducing the price of seven to hundred million dollar homes by a hundred thousand dollars.
Chantry: Right, yeah. It sounds really –
Jeremy: These are not $300,000 homes.
Chantry: A $3,000,000 house had $100,000 reduction.
Jeremy: Yeah, so let’s be clear. However, what Chantry is saying here is that the difference between ten years ago as the housing market kind of catches up to itself, is that people are actually qualifying for the loans, aren’t they?
Chantry: I have not done a loan since 2008 that was not like extreme documentation of being able to make the payment. It has happened. People still have stuff happen in their life, and they are going to have short sales or foreclosures or fire sales. I have to get rid of the house. For the most part, these people are affording their payment barring a catastrophe, and that was not the case then. So that is where, sure, are we going to have a slowdown? Yeah, we needed it. We needed it.
Chantry: It was a bummer for homebuyers. There was not anything for sale. It was a little bit out of control, and I do not even necessarily mean prices were out of control. I just mean there were not enough, you sit down with a buyer and you go here are the two homes that are available. Which one do you want to buy? The seller has all the control in that situation, and that is just not good.
Jeremy: It is not good at all. And the sellers are like this is great. So, let’s put this in perspective for our local people. I have a comment. I have an observation and a question. Let’s start with the question. The prevailing 30-year interest rate today if I went to get a mortgage is what?
Chantry: About four and three-quarters.
Jeremy: Okay, so it is four and three-quarters percent to get a home mortgage today, typically. Assuming fair credit and all that stuff, good credit. Okay.
Chantry: Somewhere in there 5% —
Jeremy: Good credit, by the way, we are not talking 800. Just thinking if you have got 700 –
Chantry: Four and three-quarters, 5%, whatever.
Jeremy: Okay. Yep. What is the average interest rate that people have paid since they started tracking interest rates to borrow money for a home?
Chantry: Great question. So the mortgage industry as we know it, Fannie Mae and FHA, and it has been around since the 1950s we will say.
Chantry: It is a little over 8% is the average rate over that timeframe to current. And that is taking in current day when they have been crazy low, which is throwing the average off, right?
Jeremy: This is crazy.
Chantry: So the government made interest rates lower than they should have. Even counting that, the average is still over 8%.
Jeremy: This is, okay, this is going to be fun. Typical person comes in your office today and wants to buy a $300,000 home, which is the average home in St. George right now.
Jeremy: It is actually 330, 340, but I am going to say 300, okay, because I think the average is skewed because of higher –
Jeremy: Really is 300.
Chantry: Take out the extremes.
Jeremy: Yeah, the stuff that people are really affording. If they buy a $300,000 home, your typical client, just no specifics, what is their payment? Like the typical payment? What is the most average payment you send out of your office?
Jeremy: Okay, so let’s call it $1650 a month. So the average mortgage payment that someone is coming out of Chantry Abbott’s office, Guild Mortgage, when they go in there and they hire them to help them get a loan, it is $1650. Chant, just for fun, and I am putting you on the spot, if interest rates went from 4 ¾ to 8%. Today we are 4 ¾. Eight is the historical average. If they went up by 3 ¼ points, what would that payment 1650 be? Just as a guess.
Chantry: I will do the math, but I am going to say about $400 a month higher, probably over two grand. At least probably.
Jeremy: So we are four –
Chantry: I am going to do the math.
Jeremy: He is going to do the math. He is going to do some math. So let me put this in perspective as he playing around here. He is actually just making his move on whatever, what is the game that everybody plays? It is almost like Scrabble that they are playing with their friends.
Chantry: Oh yeah. Words –
Jeremy: Words with Friends. He just needs to make a move on Words with Friends and he will be back on. If interest rates right now, because we are going to tie this in, because we started the show by saying that the housing market is falling apart in Texas. I do not know if it is falling apart, but wow, it has kind of shut off overnight. If you read the article I linked in on Facebook to Bloomberg, you will be fascinated at the way it reads. If rate were today at the historical average interest rates for you to buy a home, your payment would go up by an average of $400 for the typical homebuyer. From 4 ¾% what is the number?
Chantry: It is about 500 actually.
Jeremy: Five hundred. Okay. This is even better. Thank you for adding some excitement.
Chantry: So about a 3% difference on that scenario is almost $500 a month.
Jeremy: So it is very simple where we are going with this. So the question is what are rates? 4 ¾%. The simple point is that this is absolutely a time that is still a great time to be buying a home. Now, here is the observation I wanted to make. We are seeing the For Sale By Owner sign go up everywhere in Washington County –
Jeremy: — in the last 30 days.
Chatnry: It is easy. Let’s just sell it on our own. Right.
Jeremy: Have we noticed historically, gang, that consumers are always six months behind every trend?
Chantry: Yeah, yeah.
Jeremy: We are always six months behind.
Jeremy: Now here is the reality –
Chantry: We all know that guy. Oh, my buddy made a bunch of money in the stock market. I am going to hurry and jump in. It is like you missed it.
Jeremy: Yeah, you missed it. Right? So what is going to happen with most of these people selling their home by owner, and I have to be very honest about this, we are needing to reduce the price of most MLS listings right now to get to them in line with what the market is really supporting, and we have talked about this for a month because sellers have been asking more than the market would support. Values are not really going down.
Jeremy: Right? In St. George. People have simply been asking more than the market will support.
Chantry: Well, what people do and I think this is where you are getting is their house is realistically worth 300, but they think, you know what, I have heard it is crazy.
Jeremy: I will do it at 325.
Chantry: There is nothing out there. Maybe we put our house up for sale for 330 and see if we get it. And if we get it, really cool, let’s sell it.
Jeremy: You know what? Let’s just go 600 and see what we get. Okay, but they are not going that crazy.
Chantry: Let’s just put it up for sale at 330, 350, and we get that. Cool, we will sell.
Chantry: And that is not what is going to happen now.
Jeremy: Right. So the For Sale by Owner, where every professionally marketed agent listed is being reduced, most of the For Sale By Owners are not going to have success right now, and it is going to be hard, and that is going to be frustrating.
Chantry: Every time I do a mortgage and there is a For Sale By Owner, the buyer thinks he is going to get a deal. There is no real estate commission, so I am going to offer him super low.
Jeremy: The buyer wants the deal. So folks, if you want to reach out to Chantry Abbott at Guild Mortgage, 674-1090?
Jeremy: Best number, 674-1090, and Mike will give you our contact information. Have an amazing week. Get your Christmas shopping done and check out the article we linked on Facebook about free vacations for realtors in Texas. No free vacations here that I have seen.
Chantry: There is one for Mexico, I think. I do not know when that was.
Jeremy: Okay. All right, man.
Jeremy: There is a dude ranch vacation.
Mike: Dude. All right. You have been listening to St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. For information, call 275-1690 or find them online, Sold in St. George dot com.