Tag Archives : Bluff Street

 

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Below is the actual St. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Jeremy: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Hey man, talk about shaking off the Christmas, what is it, Craig? I do not know. It is the Christmas cobwebs. How does that sound?
Craig: I can hardly talk this morning.
Jeremy: Well, listen. I am glad you are awake. I am glad you are here. Tell you what. The studio is largely empty, but guess what? We are here. We are here. Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive, live at the Cherry Creek Radio Studios. And the cool part is Jesse and I are wearing similar, similar outfits this morning.
Jesse: We did not plan that.
Jeremy: Listen, this is a new Christmas sweater I have got on. And you know what? Here is the deal. I can go here. I can go hoodie. Do you want to go hoodie?
Jesse: Let’s do it.
Jeremy: I can do the whole show like this. For all of our Facebook live folks, you can see me.
Jesse: Santa brought all my grandkids pajamas with hoodies.
Jeremy: Nice.
Jesse: They were pretty cool.
Jeremy: One piece? Like a one-piece pajama?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Nice. Man. Santa, let me tell you about that guy. He knows exactly what kids needs. He knows exactly what grandkids need and granddads and everything else. I like it. You had a good Christmas, didn’t you?
Jesse: Oh yeah. All the kids were here. And the grandkids. It was first –
Jeremy: Beautiful, man.
Jesse: — time I think ever that we have had all the grandkids in one place for more than a couple of hours.
Jeremy: Really? Really? All of them? As in all of them?
Jesse: All four. Yep.
Jeremy: All of them.
Jesse: It was awesome. Last night, the house was just tore up.
Jeremy: Just gone.
Jesse: I got in trouble because I was just sitting there relaxing.
Jeremy: Like what do you want me to do, honey? I am just trying to –
Jesse: Can you not see all these toys laying around?
Jeremy: I am just trying to enjoy myself here.
Jesse: No, not really. Are there toys there?
Jeremy: Well, you know what, let me tell you something. My kitchen was, the house was a disaster. Santa came through. He must have been there at 1am, and then things were fine. I cleaned up, and then the kids decided to do what kids do, and then it was a mess, and then I cleaned it up yet again. Cooked a big breakfast. Do you know what hootenannies are, Jesse? Have you ever heard of them? Do you know what a hootenanny is?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: Hootenanny is a German pancake. There you go. So a lot of people know what a German pancake is. Have you had German pancakes?
Jesse: I have heard of German pancakes, but I have called them German pancakes.
Jeremy: It is incredible.
Jesse: Or is that crepes?
Jeremy: Nope. Cup of flour, cup of milk, six eggs, salt, you melt a stick of butter in the pan. You mix that all together in the blender. You throw it in there. You cook it for 25 minutes.
Jesse: Hootenanny.
Jeremy: Hootenanny.
Jesse: Did I say it right?
Jeremy: Yeah, I am not sure where that, I would love to know from my mother where on earth hootenanny came from. But we had German pancakes. It is a tradition. Always do it. And guess what? Today is December 27th. The question of the morning: Is it going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, guys? Do we think it is going to snow in St. George today? What do you think, Jesse? Yay or nay?
Jesse: I doubt it. I doubt it.
Jeremy: They are saying maybe. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, chime in. Comment. Tell us what you think. Craig, what do you think? Look, you are the traffic guy. You are the weather guy.
Craig: If you head north probably. I am not sure. It was flurries this morning just barely, but –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah. Maybe. Where do you live at?
Craig: Parowan.
Jeremy: Yeah, so you were getting snow then.
Craig: Yeah.
Jeremy: How much snow was down on the ground?
Jesse: Yeah, definitely.
Craig: Not much. Maybe an inch or two.
Jeremy: I knew you lived north, but I did not you were Parowan.
Jesse: That is a dedicated radio dude.
Craig: It was (indiscernible)
Jesse: You are driving what? 65 miles?
Craig: Yeah, about. It is an hour.
Jeremy: Oh, I love Parowan.
Craig: Yeah, I do, too.
Jeremy: There is a building I want to purchase in Parowan downtown.
Jesse: We were just talking about that.
Jeremy: Yeah. I was up there last week, skied, came down, ate at Calavario’s. I love that place.
Craig: Oh yes. I do, too.
Jeremy: It is such a fun little family restaurant. The vibe is amazing.
Craig: Yep.
Jeremy: Great people. Well, we have got Craig Bennett, sticking his neck in here for Mike McGarry. Mike, as they say, his days are numbered, but not that kind of numbered.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: This guy, we have got an upcoming change of careers, as in he is going to go to the career that we all want.
Craig: Yes.
Jeremy: The retirement career. So we are going to talk to him. We are going to have a fun show with Mike this next month and talk about his history in radio and career. When I was quite young, Mike was calling a lot of the sports here in St. George.
Craig: Yeah, 41 years.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is a long time. It a long time.
Jesse: That is a long career on the air.
Jeremy: It is going to be a very interesting time as Mike transitions out and we have a new co-host here in the studios. So it is December 27th, 2018, and we had some fun this last week. I thought this would, before we transition, I thought this would, last week, we talked about five things you absolutely have to know about the real estate market, specifically the St. George real estate market –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — as we move into 2019, and this would be anyone who is thinking of buying or selling, and let me tell you who else that would cover because there is really two groups of people. There are people who are thinking of buying and selling, and then there is, might I say there are three. There is a second group that would buy and sell under the right conditions.
Jesse: Right. If I could do this, I would do that.
Jeremy: Yeah, if I could get blank, I would do blank. And then there is another group that it has not necessarily crossed their mind. And this is often, for instance, we have talked about out-of-state homeowners or landlords who go, wait a minute. You mean to tell me that the market is probably at 10-year peak? Well, I do. I do mean to tell you that very intentionally.
Jesse: Absolutely.
Jeremy: We are most certainly at very close, if not at the peak, for this cycle. This might be someone who decides well I could buy an investment property? Well, absolutely you could buy an investment property. You have no idea. There are a lot of things you could do that you are not aware that you could do. These are regular business owners. People who could come in and purchase an investment property, Jesse, and have a stranger pay the mortgage every month plus some profit for the next 10 to 20, 30 years, and you would have quite a little nest egg. So there are three groups. I want to buy or sell. I would buy or sell under the right conditions. I have not really even thought about it, but now that you are suggesting it to me.
Jesse: Yeah, that creates a whole other show right there about (indiscernible)
Jeremy: Absolutely.
Jesse: Really taking the time to do your homework there.
Jeremy: Exactly. That is exactly right.
Jesse: Because that is a long-term haul if you are buying right now.
Jeremy: Well, it is, but it is always a long-term. It is always long-term. So real estate investment is always long term. Buying and flipping homes is something people love to talk about. That is not a play that 97.93% of the people, you know what, no. That is not a play that 99% of the population is ever going to make in their whole entire lifetime. So legitimately, 1% of your real estate investors out there are going to be in the flipping game. And then there is a list of reasons. And that is also a separate show. But we are going to recap those five points, but I wanted to share something kind of fun. This last week, we put a post on our Larkin Group Facebook page, and we are going to give you one shot, one last shot, Jesse. These folks at winning the gift basket.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: We said Christmas Eve, but there was a kind of a fun little energy to these comments, so we have a post that says Merry Christmas from the Larkin Group. Would you like a little Christmas boost from the Larkin Group? And if you want to know where this is at, folks, Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and you can comment, and you may win the gift basket. Share something on your Christmas list in the comments below, and we will choose one lucky winner from all of our commenters. Right? Commentors. So I thought it would be interesting, because we are in the Christmas season to share what people talked about. You ready?
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Do you want to know what they said?
Jesse: I am ready.
Jeremy: Colby wanted a backyard firepit area. Yes or no? We are going to go through each one, and then you tell me yes or no whether you want it. How about that?
Jesse: I have one.
Jeremy: Beautiful.
Jesse: It is just a makeshift right now because it is in the process, but we just had a fire the other night.
Jeremy: And it was nice.
Jesse: It was nice.
Jeremy: A phone call from our missionary from the Abbotts. Well, yeah everybody, these kids that go on all these LDS missions, they only talk to their parents on Mother’s Day and Christmas.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: So it is four calls in two years. That is how that works. That is a long time. Right? So the Graphs, or excuse me, the Abbotts, a call from the missionary. Lynda Wallenfels. She is my good friend. She wanted someone to paint her house. Yeah, I would take that.
Jesse: That I would do because I am right in the process of getting ready to do that.
Jeremy: I love this. Jenae, listen, I hope you are listening Jenae Bang, who is a long-time friend of ours. To sell our house. I responded, yeah, we know how to do that. Andrew Young, who creates our Facebook graphics, all he wanted was an Amazon gift card. That is very simple.
Jesse: I would take that.
Jeremy: You would take it? Okay. How about the Esplins, since I bought all my own gifts, I am excited to open my Instapot.
Jesse: Nice.
Jeremy: I like that.
Jesse: I should just go buy one of those because everybody is talking about them.
Jeremy: Yeah, you need one.
Jesse: I do bone broth every two weeks.
Jeremy: You need one. You need one.
Jesse: In my 20-year old pressure cooker.
Jeremy: You do, man. I will rapid fire these out. Somebody wants new dishes, a sound system for their family room. Steve wants a new, hey a new shave, a nice Christmas shave. A safe trip across the country when we move back to St. George. Welcome back, Quinton and Maury Jensen on the way back. Robert, good morning, my friend, a new backyard landscape. That is cool. We can do that for you.
Jesse: I like that.
Jeremy: St. George Day Spa. Michelle wanted, not Michelle on our team, another Michelle, a full day at the spa. That is all. Jamie Mecham, a Chicago Bears sweater or t-shirt. Somebody wanted our troops to return safe and to be able to speak to their families at Christmas. I think that is fine. Jesse Poll here, you wanted a fancy drone. Did it happen?
Jesse: Not yet. That is a ways out.
Jeremy: Keep the intention out.
Jesse: I do not just want to go buy a cheap one. I want to really plan for this.
Jeremy: I love this. Probably my favorite one, and there is a picture of a tiny, adorable baby with two Christmas stockings that are bigger than the baby –
Jesse: That we already have.
Jeremy: Some money to finish our adoption next month, Tim shared.
Jesse: That is a cool one.
Jeremy: That is very cool.
Jesse: That was very cool one.
Jeremy: So I think it is fun to see what people are talking about. It is Christmas time. These are the things that folks are thinking about, and these are some good answers, some really great answers. If you want to comment this morning, we will draw at noon today. Facebook dot com slash St. George Experts, and that post is pinned to the top of the page. You will see the Merry Christmas and go from there. I better plug this laptop in. It says it is going low.
Jesse: Imagine that.
Jeremy: What do you think? Talk to me about an article that we shared yesterday. Well, we shared it with our team yesterday.
Jesse: Right. Well, this –
Jeremy: The market is shifting.
Jesse: It is.
Jeremy: We have sellers wondering why their homes are not selling. Give us some feedback.
Jesse: We are still in a really strong market even though all over town people are talking about a shifting market. There is still less than four months of inventory on the market. So that is still considered a really strong market.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: But there is about 30% or 40% of homes that still fail to sell for whatever reason. They go on the market and they come off unsold. Now there are things that you can do about that. So there are five most common reasons where a home, why a home will not sell in the strongest market.
Jeremy: Let’s hit them fast. I want to hit these because, and then we are going to wrap up the show with a recap of the five things you have to know.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: So what are the five reasons? Because, Jesse, the reason we are talking about this specifically is it is December 27th. On January 1st, which is next Tuesday, there will be a record for the year, number of what we call expired listings. And for our listeners out there, an expired listing is a home listing, the home was on the market for typically six months. Sometimes less. Sometimes more. But typically six months, and it did not sell. And remember that these sellers, these homeowners when they put their homes on the market six months ago, the last thing, they would have had a dialogue that looked like this and tell me if I am close.
Jesse: Okay.
Jeremy: Jesse, how long is your listing term?
Jesse: Six months.
Jeremy: Great, great. Okay. It is June, so that would be the end of December. Well, gosh, there is no way we would not have our home sold by Christmas, right?
Jesse: Oh sure. Yeah.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Probably sixty days we will have it sold.
Jeremy: Yeah, okay. That was six months ago.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: And now these listings are going to expire. So there are a large number of the home-selling population who are saying what the heck happened? And the market shifted a little bit. What are the five things, five reasons a home does not sell? And we cannot drill the details, but what are they? And then we are going to share this to our Facebook page this morning as well. Go for it.
Jesse: So number one is price.
Jeremy: Number one is price.
Jesse: Number two is the condition of the house.
Jeremy: Bingo. Okay. Keep going.
Jesse: Three is the seller’s motivation.
Jeremy: Okay.
Jesse: Four is the marketing plan, and number five is lack of communication with your agent.
Jeremy: Okay, let me ask you a couple of things here. What do we have, of those five, read those back to us again.
Jesse: Price.
Jeremy: Price.
Jesse: The condition of the home, the seller’s motivation, marketing plan, and the communication or lack of communication with the agent.
Jeremy: So how many of those do we have? Which of those items do we really have control over?
Jesse: We have control over the price, the condition, and the marketing plan, and well, the communication.
Jeremy: I guess we could communicate.
Jesse: So the only thing we cannot control, and I would even say the seller cannot control, is their own motivation. They are going to have, it is going to be what it is unless they have a change in circumstance or a change in perception.
Jeremy: What do we mean by motivation though?
Jesse: Well, I really have to move. I have a new job in 60 days. I have to move versus well, I would sell it if I could get the right price.
Jeremy: If I could get the right price.
Jesse: If it could really be the perfect condition, I would sell. So that is what we mean by motivation.
Jeremy: Right. I think this is really interesting. So four of those five factors, that is what is kind of interesting about this situation is you actually have control over 80% —
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — of the issues.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Here is what we do not have control over, which are not even listed. Exceptionally cold weather, a massive snowstorm, a government shutdown, 2013.
Jesse: Location.
Jeremy: We had both of those in 2013, and they hurt the, location unless you have a mobile, you cannot even move a mobile home. Right?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: You cannot control location. You cannot control economic conditions.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We cannot control public perception –
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: — of the market.
Jesse: You have to meet that right where it is at.
Jeremy: Yeah, that is just reality. So we actually have control over 80% of these factors. We can control the price we are asking. We can control, you as a seller with a good agent, as professional real estate marketers, we can absolutely control the marketing that we are doing for a home.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? We have full power over how much we communicate with the seller, and most importantly, what we communicate with the client.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: By the way, us talking to you everyday does not change anything. Us communicating what matters will change something.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: So when we talk about these kinds of things, look folks, there are a large number of homes that just are not selling, and we are moving into 2019, and the market has been hot, and there is a perception that well, maybe the market is not good anymore. Right? Maybe the market is not good anymore. The market is great. Jesse, of all of those issues that you just listed, what is the overarching, number one, primary issue that is almost always the issue?
Jesse: Price.
Jeremy: Yeah, it is price.
Jesse: It is typically always price.
Jeremy: It is. It is. Right? Because there is a market, it is interesting. We have talked about this for a while on the show that Red Bull is one of our sponsors. I had to wink at Craig there. If you consider that I pay for their product and they put it in here. I have cut back on my Red Bull consumption greatly. I have got tangerine this morning. Now Craig, you realize this is 100% pure Florida orange juice in this can. Okay. Maybe it is not. It is interesting though. If I go to, I went to the Sinclair here on Bluff Street this morning. I had myself a really good breakfast, but I needed a drink. It is two for five bucks, this product right now. Do you know what the price is on this product at Maverick?
Jesse: I have no idea.
Jeremy: Do you want to guess?
Jesse: Four bucks.
Jeremy: Well, it is two for five bucks at that store. What do you, now I have given you a hint.
Jesse: Actually three-fifty-nine.
Jeremy: Okay. What do you think the price might be, Craig? If it is two for five at this Sinclair, what do you think it is at the Maverick, their competitor?
Jesse: Oh, at the, oh okay.
Jeremy: It is also two for five bucks. Guess what it is at Chevron? It is two for five bucks. Should I keep going? That is the market for these Red Bull cans.
Jesse: See, I was busy messing with my, my headphones keeping coming off, so I did not hear you correctly.
Jeremy: But it is a great question because it catches you off guard. That is why I ask it. There is a market for a product, and the reason I, it is just so funny this morning, I was thinking about it. I thought it is two for five everywhere. Or whatever, five-twenty-five. I do not know what it is. It is around there. Everywhere they are selling this at that rate. Under what circumstances would you pay two for six if you knew you could always get them two for five? Well, I do not know. If I were in a desperate situation and it was a long drive. Is it a long drive to any gas station? Craig has got three or four great ones in Parowan. There are two I love.
Jesse: (Indiscernible)
Jeremy: I love the Maverick, and I love the new whatever you call it out by the freeway. What do you call it?
Craig: Oh yeah, it is KB.
Jeremy: KB. Those are both great.
Jesse: What is interesting though is people will drive clear across town for the best gas price.
Jeremy: They will. They will. They will kill themselves.
Jesse: They will do the same thing for a home.
Jeremy: Yeah, so, so –
Jesse: Get the best value.
Jeremy: Isn’t that amazing? So I understand that your home is special, and I say that with a wink and a nod, because we all think our home is special. And I understand you have the best children. I do not know. Some of the listeners are like no, no, no. We just did Christmas. I assure you I do not have the best children. No, my kids are great. They are happy. They are healthy. They loved Christmas.
Jesse: And they are fighting just like everybody else’s.
Jeremy: Yeah, they were. They were. But the point is that there is a market. Price will always be the number one, overarching factor that is affecting your home’s, Jesse, what factor does this price solve for a home seller? Name some things that price solves.
Jesse: Price?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Well, it will solve, if you are at the right price, you will actually get showings.
Jeremy: But what will it solve? What are the problems it solves? What if my home is by a busy road?
Jesse: Then there is no other way to go but to price it correctly.
Jeremy: Oh okay.
Jesse: Because a buyer is going to look at that –
Jeremy: What if I have a crappy view?
Jesse: Well, that is definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I have no backyard?
Jesse: Definitely going to affect it.
Jeremy: What if I need to renovate my house or replace my carpets?
Jesse: Then it is price.
Jeremy: What if the buyers are not real excited about buying homes right now?
Jesse: Then it is going to be price.
Jeremy: What if interest rates are rising?
Jesse: It would be price.
Jeremy: This is a fun conversation, isn’t it? Is there any issue that price does not solve? Any issue? Is there any single issue? Let’s pretend the government shut down today, and you could only buy a home with cash. What factor would solve the issue for any seller?
Jesse: Probably price.
Jeremy: Price. But Jeremy, everyone is going to stop buying homes. Everyone will not. Everyone will not stop buying homes. That has never happened ever in the history of housing. It has never happened.
Jesse: (Indiscernible)
Jeremy: Right?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Price solves every issue. Why homes do not sell in a strong market, let’s give you things you need to know before they move into 2019. Right? We still have a strong market. Jesse, you know these from last week. Let me review them and you ping in here. Number one, interest are or are not rising? They have been.
Jesse: They have been. They have been going up and down, but they are probably going to continue to go up.
Jeremy: They are going to continue to go up.
Jesse: They say they are, but they are just not sure how fast they will let them go up.
Jeremy: So this is number one. Interest rates have risen. They are rising, and you cannot, we talked about putting the pedal to the metal on your car and just drive it at full speed indefinitely. Number one, you will run into something. But number two, it will run out of fuel. The housing market has been on crazy, crazy, crazy pace for a long time. Number two, we are not in a housing what?
Jesse: Bubble.
Jeremy: Yeah, we are not in a bubble. This is not a bubble. And what is it that Chantry Abbott always shares with us, Guild Mortgage when he comes in here, about qualifications for loans now?
Jesse: They are actually a lot better than they were in 2005, 6, and 7. They are still pretty strict.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually –
Jesse: You still have to qualify.
Jeremy: Yeah, people are actually qualifying for homes.
Jesse: And they still check your qualifications.
Jeremy: They do.
Jesse: Pretty harshly. I just went through a refinance.
Jeremy: Yeah, they did. They are like you had a receipt for gas from 1998. Is that in the wallet? Did you keep track of that?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: It is a file.
Jesse: Where did this money go out of your checking account? Where did it come from?
Jeremy: Exactly. And so I am a little out of order. Number one, interest rates are rising. Number two, we are not in a housing bubble. We are not going to have a bubble burst. Number three, which is connected to number one, which is why I say I am a little out of order. I have some scribbled notes from last week. Rates are rising for a very good reason, which is what?
Jesse: Well, they have been holding them artificially down, and we either let them go back to natural or we are going to cause more of a problem.
Jeremy: Because the market is healthy –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: — we can do that.
Jesse: Right. They have been holding them down to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: So if you have got a teenager and did you notice that if they follow the rules and they earn trust, and they do what mom and dad ask that between 12 and 14 and 16 and 18 that suddenly some of the boundaries are lifted, and a little more freedom is given —
Jesse: Interesting to note.
Jeremy: — to that child. Right? The same thing happened with the economy. The government comes in here and puts, originally they put a tourniquet on because literally we were bleeding out.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? Then we did surgery.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Then we stitched it up. Then we had a cast and a sling. We are getting back to health in the economy, so the government says all right, we do not have to suppress interest rates artificially anymore.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: Interest rates are going up, and they are going up because the economy is actually doing great. One of the massive misconceptions that happens when a market starts to shift a little bit, as we wrap up today, is it slows down a little bit and people go oh, the market crashed. The market has not crashed. It is doing fantastic. Okay? Two minutes. Perfect. Okay. I love this. I love this. Number four, renting, excuse me, buying is again, and has always been, a more profitable for the average human being, American citizen than owning. The average net worth of a homeowner at age 65 is $300,000 versus the average net worth of a non-homeowner or a renter at age 65 was, do you remember the number?
Jesse: I think 30, 30, I cannot remember.
Jeremy: 5,000.
Jesse: Oh, 5,000.
Jeremy: There is no net worth.
Jesse: That is ridiculous. That is unbelievable.
Jeremy: Essentially, unless they have a really good retirement. But this is an average, right? We are talking about people who have nothing versus people who have a lot and average it. Average net worth of a homeowner is $300,000, okay?
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: So remember that. Last point, home values in St. George are not only not falling, they are at about a ten-year peak, ten-year peak. This will be a time that people will look back and say I wish I would have sold my home, especially people who are non-occupants. Landlords or second homeowners will wish they had done it. Okay? And they are not only not falling, there is the potential with a lot of the forecasts, 94% of the economists interviewed last week in our report, said we think they will go up in 2019. I do not know that they will in St. George. Jesse and I have debated this. I do not know.
Jesse: Well, the market does not turn on a dime. So they might not, they are not going to be at this intense pace, but –
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: — it is going to take a while for them to slow down and turn.
Jeremy: It is.
Jesse: So that is why I say I disagree.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: They will go up a little bit.
Jeremy: We will see.
Jesse: Just from momentum.
Jeremy: I say they will not. You say they will. We will find out.
Jesse: So next year we are going to have this conversation again.
Jeremy: Folks, if you want to reach out to us, please call us at 275-1690 or visit us at Sold in St. George dot com. A lot of people have questions right now about the real estate market. Absolutely no obligation. Sold in St. George dot com or hop on Facebook and make a comment about the Christmas giveaway. I think somebody may win a basket today.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: Jeremy Larkin, Jesse Poll thanking you, saying we know this town.
Jesse: Happy Holidays.

 

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Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike: KDXU News Time. It is 8:35. Good morning and welcome. It is a Thursday morning. It is time for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive as we check in once again with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.
Jeremy: Good morning, everybody. Hopefully Mike will plug me in here. I do not know where this thing plugs into. It plugs in somewhere. Hey, we are live in the Cherry Creek Radio Studios on North Bluff Street. If you are watching us on Facebook Live, you would see the chaos ensuing. By the way, chaos unneeded in life. It is okay to not have chaos. It is okay to live drama-free. It is not a problem.
Jesse: But it is not fun.
Jeremy: Nah. Yes, it is. It is a lot of fun, and it is okay to live without drama. I assure you right now. Okay? So you have a little, thank you, Mike, little snafu. Plugged in. I can actually hear now and be involved and engaged in, as they say, present with you. Hey, Merry Christmas. You can hear the jingling of the bells. If you are not watching us on Facebook Live, I think just envision a little more than, not lime but not forest green sweatshirt with a bunch of kitty cats all over the front of it with bells, actual bells and a few Christmas bows. I think it is a nice sweatshirt. I asked Jesse to wear an ugly sweatshirt this morning. Ugly sweater, he put on a nice sweater.
Jesse: Well, I could not find my Christmas sweater, my ugly sweater. So I have a shirt. I thought that was for later.
Jeremy: Well, he asked a question this morning in our group feed. Over at the Larkin Group, we run a real estate company. If you guys do not know who we are, I am Jeremy Larkin, host of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive. Been hosting this show for at least five years. We might have pushed clear back into 2012, which would be over five years. I know we are five years, and we run a real estate company here in St. George, Utah, and we help people through what seems really easy but ends up being the third most harrowing experience of their life shy of a birth, a death, fourth most, a birth, a death or a divorce. Literally, buying and selling and moving is –
Jesse: Yes.
Jeremy: — it seems to be next for most people. We help people through that process –
Jesse: Very stressful.
Jeremy: — of buying and selling and investing and help them make good decisions. But I have got Jesse Poll here, one of my business partners, great guy. But this morning on the group chat, we have a group chat. Right? And he said do you want us to bring a Christmas sweater or an ugly sweater? And I said there is no difference, dude. There is no such thing as a Christmas sweater that is not ugly. It is actually a fact.
Jesse: Now, I am corrected. There you go.
Jeremy: I do not care if you show up with a reindeer on your shirt –
Jesse: That is ugly.
Jeremy: — like a nice stag and you think something like this is cool. This is masculine. It is an ugly sweater, dude.
Jesse: And there you go.
Jeremy: Okay, so as long as we know that. Hey, if you are not watching us on Facebook Live, please, you can pick it up and you can see what we are doing. Ask us anything. This is one of the things that we are going to start talking about on our shows. You can ask us anything about the real estate market. And if you do, it should pop up on our screen here. Today, we are going to talk about, it is, by the way, December 20, 2018 for those who are picking up our show later on the podcast or over at our website, Sold in St. George dot com. If you would like to listen to past shows, you can literally go to Sold in St. George dot com. Each show is about 23 minutes long, 24 minutes.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And we have them on there again. Sold in St. George dot com and click on the blog. But if you are watching on Facebook, let us know you are out there. Give us a thumb or a heart or ask a question. Ask us anything. We are going to talk about five things you have to know about the real estate market moving into 2018, 2019, excuse me. Because 2018 is eleven days ready to expire, right. Eleven days from now we will be done with this year, and you will be writing, fortunately, most people are not writing checks. We do at our office, and you can stop putting the wrong date on, or start putting the wrong date on everything.
Jesse: This is the first year I did not do that. Maybe it is because I do not write checks anymore.
Jeremy: Yeah, yeah. Well, there you go. There you go. I write a handful. Not personally. Well, occasionally even personally I write one, but typically, typically, I am writing checks only for the business. So you all know what we are talking about. Right? It is January 7th, 10th, 20th, 30th, and I do not even know if there is a 40th in there, and you are still writing 2000, I think you write 2018, the previous year until at least June.
Jesse: At least.
Jeremy: And then you start over. Hey, here is a New Year’s resolution for everybody. Most people burn out on their resolutions by about January 20th, and do you know why? This is actually not a joke. I am going to tell you why if you would like to know.
Jesse: Because they are unrealistic. They are not really goals.
Jeremy: They may be realistic.
Jesse: They are pipe dreams most of, most of the New Year’s resolutions that I have ever done is a pipe dream, and they change my entire being instead of just making a little bit of an improvement.
Jeremy: And I like that. So they may be realistic. They may not, but what you are saying is right. What happens is, so we work in the real estate community, and we will be doing some business planning tomorrow as a team. We will go off site and do some great motivation and business planning for 2019. Well, what will happen is someone will say I want to lose 20 pounds in 2019. Or I want to sell 30 homes in 2019. So they divide that out by the months, and they say okay, I am going to have to lose X number of pounds or sell X number of homes per month. What happens is about January 20th, 25th, they find out that they are already behind, and what we do is we start to hate ourselves right then. We go oh well, this is just like 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, and 12 when I said the same thing. And oh five and six. And instantaneously, we start to hate ourselves for, and I know hate is such a strong word, but I have to be honest, folks. It is pretty much a hatred if you are real honest out there. I realize you are saying are we doing a psychology show? Well, real estate is psychology. But just for fun, here is a New Year’s resolution. You write out who it is you want to be, what you want to have, and what you want to do, and you start with who you want to be because that is what we are going to do tomorrow as a team. Who do I want to be? What will I need to do to have what I want to have? Right? And if I cannot be the kind of person that has those things, then I will not be able to have them, that does those things, I will not be able to do the things to have the things.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Then the resolution, folks, is you just accept yourself where you are at. And if January 20th comes around and you were supposed to lose three pounds and you have lost zero, you say, you know what, I love myself for the effort I am making all the way through January 20th. That is 20 days I was making a stronger effort I was during the month of December when I was eating all the goodies that they kept dropping off at my office. And the neighbors kept swinging by. Boy, it was nice of them to bring me toffee and fudge.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: And then guess what you do? You get up on January 21st, and you reboot, and you try again. That is the resolution that I am going to encourage our listeners to do. Is you love yourself for the goal.
Jesse: You just keep going?
Jeremy: Yep, you love yourself for failing at the goal. You love yourself for your humanity. You love yourself for the fact that you screwed up the previous five years, and then you just keep going.
Jesse: But I think the most important part of what you just said is we do not take into fact that it is going to take a little bit longer to actually get the habit or the whatever we are reaching for –
Jeremy: Right. Right.
Jesse: — to start to show up. Take the weight loss. It may be in the 35th day that it really starts to change our metabolism.
Jeremy: Yeah. We have been thinking a certain way for 30, 40 years most of us, and sometimes 50, 60, 70. So hey, that is your psychology lesson for this morning.
Jesse: All right.
Jeremy: But truly, I think it makes such an impact when you are able to do that. Let’s talk about five things you have to know about St. George and the real estate market. So we, Jesse and I, last night and this morning, excuse me, we spent a few hours breaking down some information provided by a company called Keeping Current Matters and a fellow named Steve Harney. And what Steve Harney does, Keeping Current Matters is he spends all of his days and nights, drum roll please, researching the market. That is all he does.
Jesse: This guy says he reads eight hours a day. Reads.
Jeremy: Reads.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: And we have a lot of real estate. By the way, the failure rate for real estate agents is you make decisions to hire an agent in 2019. The failure rate for real estate agents is 87% over how long?
Jesse: Five years.
Jeremy: Over five years. So, 87% of real estate agents will either quit the business entirely or take another full-time job even if they keep their license active over a five-year period.
Jesse: You know what number surprised me in that data was there is 1.3 million real estate agents, and only 47,000 of those that will do more than 25 units or transactions a year.
Jeremy: Okay, so think about this. 1.3 million real estate agents –
Jesse: In the U.S.
Jeremy: In the U.S., right. And 43,000, is that what they said?
Jesse: 47,000.
Jeremy: 47,000 –
Jesse: Will do more than 25 transactions.
Jeremy: — divided by 1.3 million. 3.6% of the professionals that, because realize, you as a consumer if you are listening to our show, if you know someone who has a license, in your mind, and by the way, you are not ignorant, it is just you have no reason to believe that they would not be a professional.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: But we are telling you that there is actually a 3.6% likelihood that they are really good at what they do.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: By the way, it might even be lower than that. You might have people selling 30 homes that are not good at what they do. But let’s just assume that by the time you are selling 25 transactions, you –
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: You know what you are doing. Right?
Jesse: Yeah, their feet are wet.
Jeremy: 3.6% chance that you are hiring someone who actually, who has actually really been doing this a long time and who has, who can, they might have your best interests at heart, but Jesse, I might have your best interests at heart when you are laying on the street bleeding, but I do not have the medical ability and professional expertise to save you from dying.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Do we see that? And man, I know that was a gruesome one. That was a good one. Just because someone has your best interests in mind does not mean that they can serve and meet your best interest. So okay, they broke this down, and we are going to nail this thing this morning. This is so powerful, this information. There are five things that we want you to know, and I am going to warm us up this morning because we want you to be, our listeners, the smartest kids on the block. We always talk about that. Right? If you walk away from the show every week saying did not know that, did not think about that. Ring your jingle bells as I am jingling along here and maybe watch Jingle All the Way with Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know he is the world’s worst actor? But somehow it is fun to watch him.
Jesse: I enjoy watching him.
Jeremy: It is like watching a car accident. You just want to see. 1,400 real estate agents in Washington County according to Robert. Good morning, Robert. 1,400, okay?
Jesse: In Washington County.
Jeremy: Times 1,400. That means, that is about right. 50 agents, 50 of the 1,400 in Washington County are really selling at a volume level. I call that 25 or more transactions. Which is actually pretty good since the minimum standard to even be at the Larkin Group is?
Jesse: 24.
Jeremy: 24 transactions. Yeah. So we cannot even have a sales person on our team that is not selling 24 homes. Just too complicated. They do not have enough information to help the client, and there you go. Good morning David and Kierstin. Love having all of you on here this morning. Number one, are you guys ready? Five things you have to know about the real estate market. Number one, we are not in a bubble. We are not in a bubble.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: This is not the next housing bubble. Jesse, give us a definition of a housing recession.
Jesse: Two months –
Jeremy: Two quarters.
Jesse: Two quarters of downward pricing or –
Jeremy: Yeah, the economy is slowing down.
Jesse: — is slowing.
Jeremy: If I tell you that we are in a recession, you get nervous. Right?
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: That is a scary word. Right? But if I tell you hey, I was noticing, the economy slowed down the last two quarters. Do you quite get that chill down your spine?
Jesse: Not necessarily.
Jeremy: You should not because they are different. Recession is like a four-letter word, a really naughty one.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Okay? So a recession is nothing more than two straight quarters of economic slowdown. Okay. Folks, if you go to your children’s track at their school this morning, and they line you up and they say you are going to do, you are going to run as fast as you possibly can around this track. Like what do you mean? Am I going to run a mile or two miles? I need to know how long I am running so I will know how fast to run. No, Jesse, I want you to run as fast as you possibly can until you have to stop. How far would you go realistically you think? 400 meters around that track. How far do you think you could actually, far you think you could go at the fastest?
Jesse: How far at the fastest?
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: Probably half way.
Jeremy: That is about it. That is probably about right for most people. You would just about keel over at 200 yards.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So what you are telling me is that you cannot keep running at your very fastest speed all the way around the track indefinitely?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: Neither can the economy.
Jesse: Sixty seconds is about –
Jeremy: Yeah. And neither can your car at 100 miles per hour. It will run out of fuel. Your Tesla will run out of power. The economy cannot continue at this pace. So when we say it slowed down for two quarters, it is like thank goodness. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay. Number two data point, market interest rates are rising. We have heard that interest rates have been rising. Okay? This is a two point. Interest rates are rising, and the reason is because the economy, Jesse, is good or bad?
Jesse: Because it is good.
Jeremy: Isn’t that an interesting way to look at that? Isn’t that a different way to look at that?
Jesse: Right, but they have needed to rise because the Fed has been actually holding them, they have been paying money to hold them down.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: To boost, or to continue to stimulate the economy.
Jeremy: They have been bribing the economy.
Jesse: We cannot do that forever.
Jeremy: Right?
Jesse: Without some pretty severe consequences.
Jeremy: Lincoln, Darrell, Devin, that is like a triple power. If you guys all knew each other. Well, actually Devin bought Lincoln’s home. So maybe they do know each other. Small world. Good morning, guys. Think about what you just said. Right? Interest rates are going up because the economy is in good shape not because it is in bad shape.
Jesse: And because it is time. In St. George, anyway, for a year we have said wow, this has got to slow down. We cannot continue this pace.
Jeremy: Yeah, I have been watching my kid run around the track for the last several years, and he looks sick.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: This does not look, this is not good.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I think he is going to have a heart attack.
Jesse: So we have been praying for this, and now it is just time.
Jeremy: Yeah. Yeah. This is fun. Point number, we are going to come up to one about equity in just a minute.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: So point number one, we are not in a bubble. Okay? We are not even close to a housing bubble and we are going to give you more data to prove that. So the question is are we in a bubble? Is this, okay, we are not in a bubble. Number two, interest rates are rising, but it is because, Jesse?
Jesse: They need to.
Jeremy: They need to. Okay? And by the way –
Jesse: To stabilize our economy, they need to.
Jeremy: Yeah, and by the way, Jeremy, what do you think interest rates are going to do in 2019? I do not know, guys. Honestly, I am tired of making predictions. They keep, they raise them, and then they said they were not going to raise them.
Jesse: And then they lowered them.
Jeremy: I do not know what they are going to do. Okay? Here is what I do know. We have used this analogy so many times. If you are about to travel across 200 miles of open desert in the middle of the summer, and you see a sign that says this is the last gas station, water, and services for 200 miles, and your children are in your car, do you or do you not stop?
Jesse: You stop.
Jeremy: You stop. You are like I do not know. We will buy something. Get some gum and use the bathroom.
Jesse: Yeah.
Jeremy: What I know is interest rates are what they are today, and historically, they are half of historic, half of what they were historically. Meaning, folks, if rates ever go back, we talked about it with Chantry Abbott from Guild Mortgage last week on the show, if rates went back to the historical average, your payment would go up $500 per month if you went to get a new mortgage. Oops. Okay. Number three, this is pretty exciting. Owning a home has always and will continue to be a much better financial position than renting. Let’s talk about the data.
Jesse: That is true.
Jeremy: Okay, this is number three. Did you hear what they said what the net worth of the typical home renter was over the age of 65?
Jesse: I did not. I did not catch that.
Jeremy: Did you miss that? Okay, I do not know if you grabbed it.
Jesse: Well, I heard it, but I do not remember.
Jeremy: The typical renter over the age of 65 in the United States of America has a net worth of $5,000. Folks, do you realize what $5,000 is? It is like when my kids, they were doing the Summit Athletic Rock, $10,000, Dad, what would you do with ten grand? And I said, kids, it would be very disappointing how far that would not go.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: Right? Ten grand it just not a lot of money.
Jesse: It is not.
Jeremy: And if there is a listener out there that is like it is to me, it may be to you, but in the world, right, five grand is the net worth of the average renter over age of 65. Why do you think they measure people over 65, Jesse?
Jesse: Well, that is when we really need the money.
Jeremy: Right.
Jesse: We really, once you hit 65 –
Jeremy: How many 25 years-olds are worrying about their net worth? Thinking probably not a lot of them. The average net worth of a homeowner over 65 is? $300,000.
Jesse: Wow.
Jeremy: Net worth meaning your net value of all of your assets if you cashed out. And where do you think all that value is? Well –
Jesse: most of it is in the real estate.
Jeremy: Most of it is in the real estate. Okay? So number three, owning a home is a much better financial play, has always been, and will always be, always be than ever than renting a home.
Jesse: Well, it definitely gives you more control. Because if you are renting a home and it is December, and your lease is coming up in January, you have no idea what is going to happen. Most likely, your rent is going to go up. But if you have a mortgage, it does not.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: It stays the same until you do something with it or to change it.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So you get a lot more control, and you are gaining equity.
Jeremy: Yes.
Jesse: By most of the time, of course, the market rising or paying it down.
Jeremy: Yeah. Point number four, and point number four and five are going to look similar, but they are not. Number four is are prices falling? Home prices in St. George, Utah are not falling. Now, I had an interesting discussion this morning with my brother-in-law. He said a lot of my friends from northern Utah are looking at homes that they were checking out like six months ago and they said they dropped twenty or thirty grand. Did the value of the home drop twenty or thirty grand, or did the seller reduce the asking price that was too high to begin with by twenty or thirty grand?
Jesse: So the seller reduced the asking price, and I have got some data here that is really interesting.
Jeremy: Give it to us.
Jesse: If we look at the Washington County data for just last month. This came out, we put it out on December 2nd. The average list price is 499, but the average sold price is actually 352.
Jeremy: Average ask price was what 99?
Jesse: 499.
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: So those are not obviously on the same homes –
Jeremy: Yeah.
Jesse: — but that is saying that people, the market is just saying okay, sellers are just going to have to reign in their prices a little bit to get their homes sold now.
Jeremy: Correct. So I want you think about this. I had a comment. David, thank you, on Facebook. He said I am kind of worried the prices are coming down, which is a bummer. Hard time to sell. First of all, David, this is a really interesting context. He works in California. Okay? He lives in St. George. He works in California. By the way, I have got a map of all the declining markets in the United States of America. Where are 90% of them? California. Almost all of them are in California, Dallas, Texas, and a handful of other markets. Declining markets. Folks, what is happening with prices right now is that sellers have been asking too much for their home.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: And so, we went up and we got up to the peak and then people stretched a little beyond that and said maybe I can get more. Okay? And this is number four. Every single home needs to be reduced. Every listing in the MLS needs to be reduced between 5 and 10%. Virtually everyone. I am going to say everyone. 5-10%. Virtually every home actively for sale, and that includes you For Sale By Owners, needs their price reduced by 5-10% to actually be in line with what the market will support. Okay? Prices are not necessarily falling in Washington County. People were simply asking too much.
Jesse: They are not falling at all.
Jeremy: They were simply asking too much. Okay?
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: They have not fallen at all. We have no data to support it. Now here –
Jesse: And they cannot. So if you look at the supply and demand –
Jeremy: Keep going. I am going to run out of time.
Jesse: Can you even have a declining market when you have more demand than supply?
Jeremy: Not a chance. Thank you. That is so brilliant.
Jesse: You just cannot.
Jeremy: We still have more demand than supply.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We cannot have a declining market. Here is the fun part okay. Number five, here is the prediction. They asked 100 economists in this report that we went over, they asked 100 economists what they thought home prices were going to do in 2019. 96 of the 100 said?
Jesse: They are going up.
Jeremy: They are going to go up. Now, I do not believe they will go up in Washington County. Okay? Because when they asked economists, do you think they asked an economist in St. George, Utah what they thought?
Jesse: No.
Jeremy: No, they did not. Okay? Of course, they did not. Because of those 100 economists, probably 75 of them were in New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Okay.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: We do not think home values are going to rise in Washington County. Okay? But here is what is happening. David made a great comment. It is hard to sell right now. Not many people buying. So this Steve Harney shared a great example. He and his wife went down to buy a Lincoln Towne Car. He is a big guy. He wants a big car. His wife says I want a Lincoln Towne Car. It has been my dream. They go down and they look at all the Lincoln Towne cars. After they look at them, she gets sticker shock. She is like oh, I am never paying that much for a car. And so just like a good husband, he is like okay, honey, whatever you say.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: They leave the dealership, and they go out and they look all around town. What did she find after she looked all around town?
Jesse: That Lincoln was the best value.
Jeremy: That what she wanted and what she needed and everything factored in, that the Lincoln was the best value. And where did they go back to?
Jesse: Lincoln.
Jeremy: Buyers hit stocker shock. Here we go. This is such a huge point. David, this is to your point. Buyers had sticker shock in September, October, November of 2018. December is an anomaly and it is hard to even predict what is going on in December. They have sticker shock. I made multiple offers. I am in bidding wars. I offered ten grand over and someone beat me.
Jesse: Right.
Jeremy: I thought I was the first guy in and there were 12 people ahead of me. They got sticker shock. Folks, on January 2nd, all the young families, millennials or otherwise, that have the baby that is still sleeping in a crib in the room that they really needed to get out of the room in September –
Jesse: That is such a good analogy.
Jeremy: — but they are ticked off because the home market is too high. Sticker shock will fade and in January what will they say?
Jesse: They will come back.
Jeremy: I love this baby, but honey, we have got to get him out of the room.
Jesse: Yep.
Jeremy: This is driving me crazy. And they will come back, and they are already coming back to the market. Folks, this is a great, healthy real estate market. Have a merry stinking Christmas out there, would you? Jeremy Larkin thanking you saying we know this town. Ask us anything. Write in this thread after this on Facebook.
Mike: You have been listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive here on News Radio 94.9, 890 KDXU, with the voice of St. George Real Estate, Jeremy Larkin. Again, for more information, give them a call at 275-1690. You will find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Jeremy:  … good day to everybody.  It is kind of nice out there.  What do you think about the little bit of rain, Mike?

Mike:  I am loving it.  It is all right by me.

Jeremy:  You are not offended?

Mike:  No, not at all.

Jeremy: Do you remember 2013?  Do you remember about this week in 2013?

Mike: It got a little white around here, didn’t it?

Jeremy:  It did, didn’t it?

Mike:  Yes, it did.

Jeremy:  Can you believe that?Read more…

 

Click on Facebook Live. to see the entire recorded show from Facebook! Below is the actual S. George Real Estate Morning Drive show, hosted by St. George Real Estate Agent Jeremy Larkin, word for word! Enjoy and please share if you find it valuable! 

Jeremy Larkin and The Larkin Group @ Keller Williams Realty can be reached by calling 435-767-9821, or emailing sales@gostgeorge.com. 

Mike:  KDXU News Time.  It is 8:36 of the news time morning news, and welcome.  Glad to have you with us.  Thursday morning. And of course, that means it is time one again for another edition of the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.

Jeremy:  Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, girls, boys, real estate fans.  I can definitely declare that I am going to be stopping at Daylight Donuts on my way by this morning.  I just had that inspiration coming up Bluff Street.

Jesse:  Then you have got to do it then.

Jeremy:  I know.  I realize it may not be the best choice. We will see.  Let’s see how I feel in 24 minutes. We will see how I feel then.  It is a wonderful day.  I have got Jesse Poll, Jesse Poll in studio with me.

Jesse:  J.C.?

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  You can call me whatever you want.

Jeremy: Yeah, I have got JC, my good friend, here.  Good morning to all of our lovely listeners and Facebook friends and fans and people.  It is going to be a great day, and part of the reason we know that is if you look outside you can actually see, hair in my eye here, sorry. You can actually see downtown.  I can see all the way. You can see a big old shower coming down the way and some sun rays coming through them.

Jesse:  It is nice.

Jeremy:  It is incredible.  The famed, famed Larkin Group Fall and Dixie photo that has just been going around for forever and ever and ever, we actually have a client. Remember Quuntin and Mori Jensen?  Did you, you did not know them.

Jesse:  I did not know them.

Jeremy:  So they are moving back from Virginia and how I noticed that on Facebook the other day is that they had posted this photo, and if our listeners do not know what this photo is I guess I can throw this into the feed this morning. But it is a picture we had taken in 2009 by Danny Lee.  Danny is a really great professional photographer here in town and did just a ton of work for us for a lot of years. Larry Gardner, a little back story. So this is going to be fun this morning, excuse me, but I am. So Larry is a friend.  I grew up in the neighborhood that he was one of the dads. Right?  So his kids are my friends.

Jesse: Okay.

Jeremy: And then he was my boss. One of my bosses.  He is a City councilman and a really well-known guy, and so he took a photo of this shot.  And the shot is you drive up Airport Hill.  Okay?  What they call it.  Right?  Just to the top, almost to the old airport, which is now where the Cliffside Restaurant is, and he took this photo.  And it was probably 2004 of downtown and it was just in this epic color, and it was right after a rainstorm and everything was clear, and the color was really vibrant.  Well, it was not a professional photo.  It was a good photo, and years later, it was November.  It was good, and we used it in our marketing, but it had some power lines running through it.

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  And then years later on a November day, I called Danny and I said what are you doing?  Well, I am in St. George.  I just shot a home, photographed a home.  Well, could you go up to Airport Hill in like 10 minutes?  He said yeah.  He went up to the hill and 15 minutes later we had this photo, and it has been featured on more Facebook pages and yard sale pages.  When I saw the Jensens, now segueing back, I knew they were moving back from Virginia because what photo did they post to say guess what everyone, we are moving back to St. George.

Jesse:  I am going to tell on myself for a second here. I do not even know if you know this, but did you know that I stole that idea before we met?  For my sign.

Jeremy:  No.

Jesse:  I went up to my friend’s house –

Jeremy:  I remember.  I remember.

Jesse: But it was my photo.

Jeremy:  We disapproved. We saw.

Jesse:  I did not even know it was you.

Jeremy: Oh, it was us.

Jesse:  I saw this sign and I am like wow, that is gorgeous.  How could I get one like that? So I went up to my friend’s house with my phone and took it.

Jeremy:  Oh, I remember.  I remember, Jesse.  We knew you before you knew us.

Jesse:  And do you know where those signs are now?

Jeremy:  In the garbage?

Jesse:  No, my sister-in-law painted them. We have this, the next time you come to my house you will see it.  It says the cottage.  This beautiful sign.

Jeremy:  I did not know this.

Jesse:  I have not hung it yet because we were still working on it.

Jeremy: Oh, that is classic.

Jesse:  But she painted them all.  For each, she did one for everybody’s house.

Jeremy: I am glad you came to work for us instead of –

Jesse:  Beautiful.

Jeremy:  — instead of competing.

Jesse: Right.  Competing with the sign. Mine still was not as pretty though because it was reflective, and it is in the details.  Right?

Jeremy:  The devil is in the details.  Hope we have got some friends watching.  Comment and say hello if you are watching this morning and let us know that you are out, and you are listening.  So I want to share with you guys something that is going on.  That is the background. And we will share that.  We will actually throw that photo on the Larkin Group Facebook page this morning.

Jesse: It is a nice photo. It is so nice people try to steal it.

Jeremy:  Yeah, it has been on postcards.  There are some jerks around town that thought they could take our photo.  That is the situation, guys.  It could be worse.  By the way, if you are lamenting that it is cool or not, it is just not early Fall anymore, you could have snow.  And it is snowing all over the place.

Jesse:  And they do have snow in Cedar City. My wife called me last night on her way back from work and said it is snowing.

Jeremy:  Woo, buddy. We do not want that. We do not want that.  Today, we are going to share with you, just so you know, as we get the show rolling, we are going to share with you what I believe is really the most important, single most important message that you can receive in real estate. And when I say most important message, I mean in any market.  And when I say any market, Jesse, what I mean is any city.  Okay?

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  And in any market condition. Right?  Whether the market is going, generally the public understands real estate as the market is either going up or it is going down.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  That is kind of how that works.  Well, is the market going up or is the market going down? We are going to share with you the single most important message that you could possibly have in real estate.  There is nothing more important to you as a buyer or a seller than this message that we are going to share today.  Okay?  Which is something more than Happy Holidays.  Is that fair enough for you?

Jesse:  Oh, happy days.

Jeremy:  This truly is something that is important.  So I wanted to share something that is kind of fascinating.

Jesse:  That was for Jessica Marron, by the way.  Her and I –

Jeremy:  Good morning, Jessica.

Jesse:  You never know when either of us is going to start singing —

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  — or dancing.

Jeremy:  That is exactly right.

Jesse:  She is my kindred spirit.

Jeremy:  I think she is a lot of people’s kindred spirit.  Good morning to her.  Gang, if you are a skier or a snowboarder, Bryant Head Resort, I was just mentioning when the live feed started, and we were just kind of in here getting mic’ed up, Bryant Head is getting some snow. Finally, getting some snow.  They opened last weekend.  I never miss opening day ever.

Jesse: And you did.

Jeremy:  Two weekends ago. I absolutely missed opening day. They opened actually the weekend before Thanksgiving, and then I missed the weekend after. It is looking like I will miss this weekend as well. So this is pretty rarified stuff for me, but it is what it is.  If you go to Bryant Head dot com, it is fun.  They have three live webcams and I watching it right now in studio, panning left and right, and it is dark, and it is overcast still a little bit up there.  Lights are on. It is really cool because the storm has set in up there.  So check that out.  Skiers and snowboarders, we are really only an hour, it is an hour and a half if it were a snowy day and you were taking it easy.  I do not tend to take it very easy when I travel to Bryant Head.  I am usually in a hurry. I call it 75 minutes for sure coming back and usually about 80 going up. So Bryant Head dot com. I hope that everyone has got their skis shined up, grab a stick of Juicy Fruit.  Remember those ads? I do. I remember those ads very, very —

Jesse:  Juice Fruit.

Jeremy:  — yep, very distinctly, and these people were skiing over in Colorado. That was a good time.  All right, let’s talk about real estate, shall we?

Jesse:  Let’s do it.

Jeremy:  Jesse, I had this crazy, last night I was playing around, and I am absolutely not going to mention the homeowner’s name.  But I saw a property that was in Stonecliff that was on the market.  And when I looked at the property, this is kind of interesting. So, this home has been listed one, two, three –

Jesse:  Two, three, four, five, six —

Jeremy:  — four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve times.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy: So there is a property that has been on the market twelve times, and that is with a variety of real estate agents, starting in 2008, it is now 2018. So for a decade, literally for a decade, and if I count up the days, two, three, four, the home has legitimately been on the market probably 1500 days over the last decade in Stonecliff.  For our listeners out there, if you have not sold a home, this is so mind-boggling if you are the homeowner.  Right?  Because you start to say what is possible, and I see the price started at one point, I am just going to say six.  The price started at $1.6 million, and it has come down a third of that, and down below that, and then it has come back up. Here is the challenge. When we have a market that has appreciated for the last six years but your price has come down a third over the last ten years, this does not make sense.  Right?  So all of the home values in Washington County have gone up an average, an average of about $125,000, 130 since April 2013.  Or just 2013. Maybe it was April. Home values are up $125,000, 130 maybe in Washington County since 2013.  That is the average home.  Home values as a percentage are up 25-30%, maybe even more, maybe even 35% in certain neighborhoods. But here is a home that a really good human being has tried to sell.  A homeowner, and they have actually reduced their price by 30% over the same time period.  Jesse, what does that mean? Because that does not make sense with the market. It means something very simple for us.

Jesse: Well, it just means that they are not, they are trying to get what they want instead of what the market will bring.

Jeremy:  Right.

Jesse:  Because even, I am going to go somewhere you are not even expecting. But even in those price ranges –

Jeremy:  Oh, I do not know.  You are pretty unexpected.

Jesse:  — even over a million dollars, the homes that are selling are selling within, at the highest, 154 days, oh no, 207 days –

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  — is the highest days on market. So they are still selling when they sell.

Jeremy:  It is just taking longer.

Jesse:  It takes a little bit longer. Not significantly. Not 1500.

Jeremy:  Yeah, so 1500 days, as we get into this and we are going to share this message.  What we believe is the single most important message about any real estate market for buyers and sellers and would-be buyers and sellers.  But I think this is a great segue for us.  You have someone, as Jesse said, has been trying to ask significantly more than the market will bear.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  So here is what is going on in the real estate market today before we set this up.  Well, let’s just share it.  You guys ready?  Three, two, one. Real estate markets in every city in the United States of America and probably on the planet are cyclical, and this is the single most important message that you can possibly understand about real estate. It is not is it a good time to buy.  It is not is it a good time to sell.  Should I rent or buy?  Right? Should I purchase an investment property? The single most important message is that real estate markets are cyclical, which means what?

Jesse:  That what goes up must come down.

Jeremy: And?

Jesse: And what goes down must come up or will come up.

Jeremy:  Absolutely.

Jesse:  It is an equilibrium, and in any equilibrium, it has to go up and down to equalize.

Jeremy:  I have a very close friend who two days ago, 48 hours ago, we are not even at 48 right now. I think we are at 35 hours ago. He was like I guess things are just not going to work out in my life, and two hours later, everything changed. In a very positive way, and the way I described it is the clouds parted and the sun broke through.  Go figure, and I said this morning, do you realize that was two days ago? Two days ago, you were everything is going to pieces.

Jesse: That is why we need to keep reminding ourselves that this will pass. This too shall pass.

Jeremy:  Which makes it sounds like we are talking about a bad real estate market.  We are not at all.  This is an amazing real estate market, but we are going to help you understand what is going on in the real estate market. So if we go back ten years, it was 2008. Literally, people thought, people meaning just generally everyone, it seemed like the clouds could never part, and that the real estate market would forever be in freefall and gang, understand that almost all of the major developers in the western United States lost everything.

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy: This was not like –

Jesse:  I was just talking to a roofer last night. Actually, Stout Roofing is going to do my roof, and we were talking about the crash. What they went through and what they have pulled through, it is just amazing.  We are talking about $600,000 of accounts receivable that they could not collect on.

Jeremy:  Are you serious?

Jesse:  And they pulled through that. It gave me goosebumps for a guy to stand in front of me that came through that and now they are getting ready to do my roof and they are going strong.

Jeremy:  Isn’t that amazing?

Jesse: Yeah, it was really cool because how many did not come back.

Jeremy:  Right.  The amazing part is we have projects in Washington County that were 30 to 40 to $50 million value projects that just went belly up.  They went upside down.  Anyone who can remember ten years ago, if you went up to the Ledges, so the Ledges actually came, well it was a little later.  The Ledges came out of the ground.  It was 2007, Parade of Homes 2007 is when the Ledges came online.  This is fun.  The average person does not know this because why would you know this?  You do not do this for a living. But it is 2007, and they have opened at the Parade of Homes, and they had this big, incredible Spanish-style property that many folks do know of.  It was the first big home in the Ledges.  It has a lazy river and an island green in the backyard where you can chip balls onto the green.  It overlooks Snow Canyon, and that thing came on the market.  It was $5 million, by the way.  They had all these tents set up, and the sky was the limit, and they sold all the lots up there to a variety of builders. They came in and these guys thought they could do no wrong, and gals, to be fair. By 2010, you would drive down past the clubhouse, and there was a row of unfinished homes right there.  Probably a dozen homes, framed, some of them had, what do you want to call it?  Paper, what do we call it the paper?  My brain is fried for a minute.  On the outside, getting ready to stucco and they sat for years.

Jesse:  The vapor barriers.

Jeremy:  The vapor barrier.  Years, and years and years.  My uncle came into town from Southern California. He is a developer and he said oh my gosh.  This is bad.  That was, guys, that was eight years ago.  That part. So now go to the Ledges.  Now look around St. George. I am looking behind me at the Bluff Street redevelopment project.  So what we need to understand is that every real estate market is cyclical.  And so, Jesse, what are we starting to see in the market. We are having a lot of real estate agents reach out to us and say what is happening with their listing that they are trying to sell for a client.

Jesse: Well, what is happening is there are a couple of things.  We are seeing a lot of pressure like sellers are having to reduce their prices finally.

Jeremy: There you go.

Jesse:  Buyers are stopping.  They are like no, we are not going to do this anymore.

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  You are having to have a strategy to actually sell a home.  What are we going to do?  How are we going to be the best value?

Jeremy:  So very specifically, sellers are having to reduce their price.

Jesse:  They are.

Jeremy:  Does that mean the home values are going down?

Jesse:  Not necessarily.

Jeremy:  Not necessarily.

Jesse:  They do not go down like that.  It is kind of like a train does not stop in 100 feet. It takes a minute.

Jeremy:  It takes a while.

Jesse:  But there is starting to be some pressure.

Jeremy: There is.

Jesse: And it is visible pressure like homes that 30 days ago or 60 days ago would have sold in two days are taking maybe three or four weeks.

Jeremy:  This is absolutely right.  We are seeing a ton of pressure in the $4-500,000 range, and what starts to happen is because real estate markets are cyclical, and the reason this is the most important message is that people will start to panic and the market is so driven by the emotional conditions that people live in that what will happen is you will have a whole bunch of buyers who are frustrated and they are fed up, sick and tired of writing offers on homes and competing with five people.  So they start saying well, maybe I will not write anymore offers.  They are fed up with paying 10% more than the last person paid in the neighborhood. So they say well, maybe we will not pay 10% more than the last person. They are frustrated because interest rates are amazing at five-and-a-quarter percent, but they remember when they were four-and-a-quarter percent.  So they say maybe I just will not borrow money, and I will not buy a home. And what starts to happen is very subtly, slowly, then suddenly, the entire market can change.  And it is changing.

Jesse: What is interesting is that, Guild Mortgage put out an interest rates over the last, I do not know, 40 years, yesterday, it is a picture. But for the last, gosh, 15 years, interest rates have just kept going down.  And we lose track of our memory.  Right?  We do not think well, this is cyclical.  And we do not stop long enough and –

Jeremy:  Excuse me, what were you saying?

Jesse:  It is cyclical.

Jeremy:  You said we lose track of our memory. I was going to see if you were paying attention.  Okay.

Jesse:  But we do not realize that what goes down is going to come back up.  And what is that going to do to us if we do not act now or if we do act now.

Jeremy:  We do forget, and here is what we start to do. We make decisions on buying and selling a home that are based on well, rates went up, maybe I should not buy. Here is the issue gang.  Historically, rates were significantly higher than this.  I remember when I was at 7% on a townhome, and I thought it was the greatest thing ever.

Jesse: Right.

Jeremy:  When it went to 5.8, 6%, I really thought that my wildest dreams had come true.  And then they went to 3%. Well now they are back to five-and-a-quarter percent, and they will go higher.  So there will be people who will look back at this market and go oh my gosh –

Jesse:  I wish I would have.

Jeremy:  — I cannot believe I did not buy a home.  Okay?  We are going to have sellers –

Jesse:  Or make that move.

Jeremy:  Correct. Right? We are going to have sellers who are going to find out that people are reducing prices in their neighborhood, which is going to imply to them and cause this idea that maybe values are going down.  Maybe this is not a good time to sell.

Jesse:  Right.

Jeremy:  Historically, ladies and gentlemen, do you realize that values are literally back where they were at the ’06 peak.  We are actually back there. We are right back where we were. Let me share something with you. Southern Utah Title produces a really great report that we were looking at this morning, Jess, right?

Jesse:  Yep.

Jeremy:  And by the way, you can visit SUTC, S as in Sam not F as in Frank. S as in Sam.  SUTC dot com, Southern Utah Title Company.  Thank you, Mitch, for your help this morning. Southern Utah Title Company, they produce this incredible report called the Good News Report.  Let me share something with folks.  In 2009, there were 474 building permits pulled.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy:  In 2009, 474 building permits.  Do we know how many building permits were pulled so far this year, Jesse?

Jesse:  1,866.

Jeremy:  Projected at how many more?

Jesse: 622.

Jeremy: So we are projected to have 2400 building permits pulled.  That is five times as many building permits as were pulled in 2009.  Okay? And it looked like this.  2005, four years prior, now brace yourselves, folks, and we have talked about this in the show, but I would not expect someone to remember this. 3500.

Jesse: Really?

Jeremy:  We went from 3,500 building permits pulled in 2005.  The low was 474.  Nine times, a nine-time crash.  Nine times fewer.

Jesse: Wow.

Jeremy:  Right? We went from 3,500 building permits in Washington County to 474.  Last year, we pulled 1800, and this year we are at 1800 and the year is not out.

Jesse:  And end at 2400.

Jeremy:  Let me be really clear. This is September. But we are headed to 2400 permits. Is real estate cyclical? Real estate is cyclical.  Is the market crashing because people need to reduce the price? No what it means is, and what we have talked about on the show is pretty much everyone is asking probably 5-10% more than what the market is really going to bare.

Jesse: Yeah.

Jeremy:  (Indiscernible) the sellers.

Jesse: The pricing conversation is a lot different when you are in a really strong sellers’ market than when you are in a buyers’ market or just a balanced market.

Jeremy:  Yeah.

Jesse:  And really, we are just going back towards a balanced market.

Jeremy: Yeah, correct. This is so true.  We are headed back to a healthy, balanced market.

Jesse: Because there is a day when three months was normal to sell a house.

Jeremy:  Correct.

Jesse: Sixty, ninety days. That is normal.  This sell your house in a week is not normal or sustainable.

Jeremy:  It is not.  Right?  We have used this so many times, but it is like when In-and-Out Burger opened over there by Best Buy, it has been a long time now.  There was a line around the building for four days.

Jesse:  That is crazy.

Jeremy:  Well, it is an unsustainable pace. No restaurant has a line around the building for 365 days a year and it lasted about four days and it was done.  And there is a nice line out there now on a busy lunch, but they push them through.

Jesse: Right.

Jeremy:  Here is another thought.  Okay? That was building permits. How about total sales?  In 2009, 3,900 properties sold in Washington County. 3,900 properties.  We are projected this year to have almost 10,000 properties sell in Washington County.  Now this is all sales, and so when we say all sales, and again you can visit S as in Sam, UTC dot com and look at the Good News Report.  All sales means building lots, homes, condos, townhomes, that kind of thing.  Right?  So folks, look, the market is absolutely incredible.  The market is cyclical.  Let me share one last thought with you.  We virtually have no foreclosures in Washington County right now.

Jesse: Wow.

Jeremy:  We are talking about, folks, let me give you some perspective.  We are talking about almost zero, virtually none in Washington County.

Jesse: Out of how many active listings?  1400?

Jeremy:  1500 homes on the market.  Well, how many homes are in the county?  10,000?

Jesse:  Yeah.

Jeremy:  More. I do not know how many.  That is a number we need to get.

Jesse: How many homes are actually built?

Jeremy:  Yeah, yeah, properties.

Jesse: I will work on that.

Jeremy:  Thank you. There are virtually no foreclosures.  Real estate is cyclical.  A decade ago, we know for a fact, I know because I was selling homes that I was handling at one point, the Larkin Group, we were handling over 70 foreclosed or soon-to-be foreclosed properties.

Jesse:  Wow.

Jeremy:  Just us.  Guys, the most important message that you can ever receive about real estate is that it is cyclical.  Markets go up and they go down.  This will be a time that people regret not selling because values are high, and they will have been high, and it is a time that people, this is ironic because it does not always work this way, will have regretted not buying because rates will go up another point.

Jesse:  I think that is a big piece.

Jeremy:  And they will be ticked.  It is a strange and actually amazing time in real estate.  Headed back to a balanced market.

Mike: You are listening to the St. George Real Estate Morning Drive with the voice of St. George Real Estate Jeremy Larkin.  For more detail and information, call 275-1690 or find them online at Sold in St. George dot com.